m********a
发帖数: 1041 | 1 普林斯顿大学的Massey教授根据墨西哥人移民美国的历史提出他对非法移民的看法:
他认为美国会充斥这么多的非法移民是因为美墨边界的军事管制导致的，因为他们来了
美国之后就回不去了(而美国仍有大量的劳力需求)。
近几年由于美国经济衰退、墨西哥条件改善、加上美墨边境管制，已经几乎没有非法移
民来到美国了。所以国会花这么多力气在讨论要加强边境安全其实是没有意义的。他认
为处理目前留在美国境内的人群才是当务之急。 | m********a
发帖数: 1041 | 2 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-08/how-dumb-is-immigratio
Everything you know about immigration, particularly unauthorized immigration
, is wrong.
So says Princeton University’s Doug Massey, anyway. Massey is one of the
nation’s preeminent immigration scholars. And he thinks we’ve wasted a
whole lot of money on immigration policy and are about to waste a whole lot
more.
Massey slices the history of Mexico-to-U.S. migration in five periods. Early
in the 20th century, there was the era of “the hook,” when Japan stopped
sending workers to the U.S. and the mining, agriculture and railroad
industries begged Mexican laborers to replace them. It’s called “the hook
” because laborers were recruited with promises of high wages, signing
bonuses, transportation and lodging, most of which either never materialized
or were deducted from their paychecks.
Then, during the Roaring Twenties, came “flood tide” -- almost 650,000
Mexican workers came legally, causing the number of Mexicans in the U.S. to
rocket to almost 750,000 in 1929 from 100,000 in 1900.
The Great Depression ended all that. Jobless Americans took out their anger
on jobless Mexicans, and thus began the “era of deportations.” From 1929
to 1939, 469,000 Mexicans were expelled from the U.S.; by 1940, the Mexican-
born population had fallen to 377,000.
Labor Demands
Enter World War II. With so many American men fighting overseas, Mexican
labor was once again in high demand. The U.S. and Mexico negotiated the
Bracero Program, which gave Mexican workers access to temporary U.S. visas.
That kicked off the “Bracero era.” In 1945, the program brought in 50,000
Mexican guest workers. By 1956, it was up to 445,000. Mexico was also freed
from quota limitations on legal immigration, so by 1963, more than 50,000
Mexicans were immigrating each year. With so many legal ways to enter the
country, illegal immigration was virtually unknown.
In 1965, the U.S. ended the Bracero program and began to limit Mexican
immigration. The number of guest-worker permits dropped to 1,725 in 1979
from more than 400,000 in 1959. The number of residence visas declined to 20
,000 after previously being unlimited. But the demand for Mexican labor
remained strong. And so the “era of undocumented migration” began. Border
apprehensions rose to 1.7 million in 1986 from 55,000 in 1965. But even as
millions of Mexicans entered the U.S. illegally, millions also returned.
About 85 percent of new entries were offset by departures. Consequently, the
growth of the undocumented population was slow.
After passage of a comprehensive immigration law in 1986, the U.S. began
militarizing the border with Mexico even as the General Agreement on Tariffs
and Trade and, later, the North American Free Trade Agreement strengthened
economic ties with Mexico. From 1986 to 2000, trade with Mexico increased
eightfold.
Until this point, there isn’t much to dispute in Massey’s narrative. But
here his immigration story takes a turn that confounds Washington’s
conventional wisdom and makes a mockery of the current political debate.
According to Massey, the rise of America’s large undocumented population is
a direct result of the militarization of the border. While undocumented
workers once traveled back and forth from Mexico with relative ease, after
the border was garrisoned, immigrants from Mexico crossed the border and
stayed.
“Migrants quite rationally responded to the increased costs and risks by
minimizing the number of times they crossed the border,” Massey wrote in
his 2007 paper “Understanding America’s Immigration ‘Crisis.’” “But
they achieved this goal not by remaining in Mexico and abandoning their
intention to migrate to the U.S., but by hunkering down and staying once
they had run the gauntlet at the border and made it to their final
destination.”
Backward Debate
The data support Massey’s thesis: In 1980, 46 percent of undocumented
Mexican migrants returned to Mexico within 12 months. By 2007, that was down
to 7 percent. As a result, the permanent undocumented population exploded.
The militarization also had another unintended consequence: It dispersed the
undocumented population. Prior to 1986, about 85 percent of Mexicans who
entered the U.S. settled in California, Texas or Illinois, and more than two
-thirds entered through either the San Diego-Tijuana entry point or the El
Paso-Juarez entry point. As the U.S. blockaded those areas, undocumented
migrants found new ways in -- and new places to settle. By 2002, two-thirds
of undocumented migrants were entering at a non-San Diego/El Paso entry
point and settling in a “nontraditional” state.
In recent years, the net inflow of new undocumented immigrants arriving from
Mexico has fallen to zero. Some of the decline is due to the U.S. recession
and a falloff in construction, which employed a lot of migrant workers. But
some is due to an improving economy in Mexico, where unemployment is 5
percent and wages have been rising. “I personally think the huge boom in
Mexican immigration is over,” Massey said.
Yet the political debate over immigration is stuck in 1985. Congress is
focused above all on how to further militarize an already militarized border
-- despite the fact that doubling the size of the border patrol since 2004
and installing hundreds of miles of barriers and surveillance equipment
appears to have been counterproductive. At any rate, the flow of
unauthorized immigration has slowed dramatically. “Listening to the
Republicans, you’d think waves of people are crossing the border,” Massey
said. “But illegal migration stopped four years ago and has been zero since
.”
In light of these facts, the debate is backward. Republicans in the House of
Representatives are focused on further militarizing the border against the
people who are no longer crossing it; at the same time, they are loath to do
anything about the millions of real undocumented immigrants who are the
legacy of the last buildup. At best, we can hope to waste tens of billions
of dollars on further enforcement in return for a lengthy and complicated
path to citizenship. At worst, we’ll do nothing -- in which case this will
be known as the era of wasted opportunity. | m********a
发帖数: 1041 | 3 那，照他這樣說，美國把門打開讓大家都回去不就好了嗎?
【在 m********a 的大作中提到】
: 普林斯顿大学的Massey教授根据墨西哥人移民美国的历史提出他对非法移民的看法:
: 他认为美国会充斥这么多的非法移民是因为美墨边界的军事管制导致的，因为他们来了
: 美国之后就回不去了(而美国仍有大量的劳力需求)。
: 近几年由于美国经济衰退、墨西哥条件改善、加上美墨边境管制，已经几乎没有非法移
: 民来到美国了。所以国会花这么多力气在讨论要加强边境安全其实是没有意义的。他认
: 为处理目前留在美国境内的人群才是当务之急。
| k****k
发帖数: 3322 | 4 他的言下之意是过两年墨西哥经济恶化，才应该讨论边境问题。
【在 m********a 的大作中提到】
: 普林斯顿大学的Massey教授根据墨西哥人移民美国的历史提出他对非法移民的看法:
: 他认为美国会充斥这么多的非法移民是因为美墨边界的军事管制导致的，因为他们来了
: 美国之后就回不去了(而美国仍有大量的劳力需求)。
: 近几年由于美国经济衰退、墨西哥条件改善、加上美墨边境管制，已经几乎没有非法移
: 民来到美国了。所以国会花这么多力气在讨论要加强边境安全其实是没有意义的。他认
: 为处理目前留在美国境内的人群才是当务之急。
| c****a
发帖数: 3173 | 5 哈哈，那大门开着好了。再说又不是劳模来，南美过来的人也非常多的。美国管不了那
么多了。索性大门开着算了。要死一起死 | I******I
发帖数: 14241 | 6 按照这个左逼的逻辑，可以类似得出近几年由于中产收入衰退、黑墨福利人口条件改善
，加上枪支管制，已经没有黑墨到中产区打劫了。讨论中产区的治安其实是没有意义的。
【在 m********a 的大作中提到】
: 普林斯顿大学的Massey教授根据墨西哥人移民美国的历史提出他对非法移民的看法:
: 他认为美国会充斥这么多的非法移民是因为美墨边界的军事管制导致的，因为他们来了
: 美国之后就回不去了(而美国仍有大量的劳力需求)。
: 近几年由于美国经济衰退、墨西哥条件改善、加上美墨边境管制，已经几乎没有非法移
: 民来到美国了。所以国会花这么多力气在讨论要加强边境安全其实是没有意义的。他认
: 为处理目前留在美国境内的人群才是当务之急。
| k********k
发帖数: 835 | 7 教授说的不错，如果完全靠巿场这支看不见的手来调节，非法老墨不是问题 | l****z
发帖数: 29846 | | b*******h
发帖数: 2585 | 9 市场中的很大部分是政府行为。
现在的情况主要是里根大赦造成的后果。他自己也很后悔。
就是老墨一堆堆来，指望大赦。
实际上，有很多其他的办法建立一个良性的秩序。
比如你非法进来，交出罚款后可以给暂时居留和工作的权利，和长期来往美墨的签证。
以罚款来体现法律的尊严。 以容许居留， 旅行自由体现人道。给人合作出路，然后再
打击不合作的人。 这种居留工作的人要在交税很长一段时间后才能享受福利，变成永
久居民，时间要比合法移民长。
【在 k********k 的大作中提到】
: 教授说的不错，如果完全靠巿场这支看不见的手来调节，非法老墨不是问题
| u***n
发帖数: 10554 | 10 re,就是因为有过关/签证这些政才导致问题，如果来去自由，也没有那么多偷渡，假政
治庇护
，假结婚了。
【在 k********k 的大作中提到】
: 教授说的不错，如果完全靠巿场这支看不见的手来调节，非法老墨不是问题
| c****i
发帖数: 7933 | 11 這種左逼教授估計高中數學邏輯一類的都是不及格的水平。他要去做醫學研究，指不定
搞出多少新的『發現』呢！ | H**r
发帖数: 10015 | 12 墨西哥和美国差距很大，墨西哥也就比中国好一点吧，美国瘦子的骆驼比马大，比老魔
国强多了 | i******b
发帖数: 1780 | 13 很明显，这是左逼文科缺乏逻辑性的所谓教授做出来的没逻辑的所谓研究。 | p*******o
发帖数: 1464 | 14 re
【在 b*******h 的大作中提到】
: 市场中的很大部分是政府行为。
: 现在的情况主要是里根大赦造成的后果。他自己也很后悔。
: 就是老墨一堆堆来，指望大赦。
: 实际上，有很多其他的办法建立一个良性的秩序。
: 比如你非法进来，交出罚款后可以给暂时居留和工作的权利，和长期来往美墨的签证。
: 以罚款来体现法律的尊严。 以容许居留， 旅行自由体现人道。给人合作出路，然后再
: 打击不合作的人。 这种居留工作的人要在交税很长一段时间后才能享受福利，变成永
: 久居民，时间要比合法移民长。
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