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发帖数: 29846 | 1 Huge Miss on Jobs: Establishment +126K Jobs; Household +34K Employment,
Labor Force -96K
Initial Reaction
For a huge change we see the existing pattern of a strong establishment
survey but a poor household survey has been replaced by weakness all around.
Last month I stated "The household survey varies more widely, and the
tendency is for one to catch up to the other, over time. The question, as
always, is which way?"
It is still difficult to say if this is the start of a new trend, but it
could be.
Last month the household survey showed a gain in employment of a meager 96,
000 and much of that was teen employment. This month the household survey
came in at an anemic 34,000.
The labor force declined in each of the last two months. Those "not in the
labor force" rose by a whopping 631,000 in the last two months.
Huge Miss on Expectations
The Bloomberg Consensus jobs estimate was for 247,000 jobs, missing by a
mile. In fact, the number came in lower than any estimate. The estimate
range was 200,000 to 271,000.
Not only that, January and February were both revised lower. The net was 69,
000 lower.
Economists blame the weather. Bad weather in March? And not in January and
February?
Let's take a look at all the key numbers.
BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
Nonfarm Payroll: +126,000 - Establishment Survey
Employment: +34,000 - Household Survey
Unemployment: -130,000 - Household Survey
Involuntary Part-Time Work: +70,000 - Household Survey
Voluntary Part-Time Work: -104,000 - Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.0 at 5.5% - Household Survey
U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 10.9% - Household Survey
Civilian Non-institutional Population: +181,000
Civilian Labor Force: -96,000 - Household Survey
Not in Labor Force: +277,000 - Household Survey
Participation Rate: -0.1 at 62.7 - Household Survey
March 2015 Employment Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment
Report.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 126,000 in March, and the
unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional
and business services, health care, and retail trade, while mining lost jobs.
Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image
Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted
image: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zk5pfiL9Ua8/VR6sdt7vfaI/AAAAAAAAdPc/LEp4Ipx_Kw8/s400/Nonfarm%2B2015-04A.png
Nonfarm Employment January 2012 - March 2015
image: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3SKhVayHd80/VR6tNAiUbXI/AAAAAAAAdPk/90z9leTFD8M/s400/Nonfarm%2B2015-04B.png
Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type
image: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DSsFEjxWYgg/VR6tzJto8iI/AAAAAAAAdPs/6ayryvdGY7Q/s400/Nonfarm%2B2015-04C.png
Hours and Wages
Average weekly hours of all private employees declined by 0.1 to 34.5 hours.
Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at
33.4 hours.
Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers
rose $0.04 at $20.86. Average hourly earnings of production and non-
supervisory private service-providing employees rose $0.03 at $20.66.
For discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind
Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?
Birth Death Model
Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this
report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not
subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number.
That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in
the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back.
Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment
image: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HccHoTFK_x0/VR6vvKJUxMI/AAAAAAAAdP4/1eKa-U1P2kA/s400/Nonfarm%2B2015-04D.png
click on chart for sharper image
Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the
unemployment rate really is.
Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good"
approximation.
The official unemployment rate is 5.5%. However, if you start counting all
the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs
that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment
rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer
picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row
labeled U-6.
U-6 is much higher at 10.9%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it
not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to
retire. The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement, discouraged
workers, and kids moving back home because they cannot find a job.
For further discussion of a more accurate measure of the unemployment rate,
please see Gallup CEO Calls 5.6% Unemployment Rate "The Big Lie": What's a
Realistic Unemployment Rate? |
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