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发帖数: 29846 | 1 US economy barely grew in first quarter
April 29, 2015 - 10:05 AM
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy skidded to a near halt in the first
three months of the year, battered by a triple whammy of harsh weather,
plunging exports and sharp cutbacks in oil and gas drilling.
The overall economy grew at a barely discernible annual rate of 0.2 percent
in the January-March quarter, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.
That is the poorest showing in a year and down from 2.2 percent growth in
the fourth quarter.
The government's first look at economic growth for the first quarter, as
measured by the gross domestic product, came as the Federal Reserve wrapped
up two days of discussions on interest rate policies. While the economy can
brush off the temporary factors behind the slowdown, it will have to contend
with ongoing challenges like the strong dollar for some time.
"A stalling of U.S. economic growth at the start of the year rules out any
imminent hiking of interest rates by the Fed," Chris Williamson, chief
economist at Markit, wrote in a research report.
Plummeting exports dragged grown by nearly a full percentage point. The
category that includes investments in oil and gas exploration plunged 48.7
percent. Consumer spending slowed sharply as a severe winter kept shoppers
home.
The first quarter figure was much worse than economists had expected. But
analysts are still looking for a solid rebound for the rest of the year,
similar to what happened in 2014.
The economy contracted in the first three months of 2014, also due to a
harsh winter. It was then followed by a strong rebound to growth of 4.6
percent in the spring and a jump of 5 percent in the third quarter.
Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at BTIG, believes the first quarter will
prove to be the year's low point, though acknowledges that the momentum so
far isn't as strong as last year.
"Admittedly, the data does not yet support the type of snapback seen in 2014
but more growth is better than less and we expect that to occur this year,"
he said in a note to clients.
The economy is being hurt by the rising value of the dollar, which makes
exports more expensive on overseas markets and imports more attractive to U.
S. consumers. For the first quarter, a widening trade deficit subtracted 1.
25 percentage points from growth, with nearly 1 percentage point of the
damage coming from a big drop in exports.
Business investment spending on equipment and structures fell at a 3.4
percent annual rate, in large part reflecting the nearly 49 percent drop in
the category that includes oil and gas drilling. Energy companies have cut
investments back sharply in response to the fall in oil prices over the past
year.
Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of economic activity,
decelerated to a rate of just 1.9 percent in the first quarter, down from a
4.4 percent surge in the fourth quarter. It was the weakest gain in a year.
The Fed is expected to acknowledge the first quarter economic slowdown in
the statement it issues later Wednesday.
At the Fed's March meeting, the central bank opened the door to a rate
increase this year by no longer saying it would be "patient" in moving to
raise interest rates. While economists had thought the change could mean the
Fed might hike rates for the first time at the June meeting, the view now
is that the weaker economic activity has pushed off the first rate increase
until at least September.
Many economists forecast growth to rebound to around 3 percent in the
current quarter and hold steady in the second half of the year. The
International Monetary Fund earlier this month projected that the U.S.
economy would grow 3.1 percent this year. While that is a half-point lower
than its January forecast, it would still give the United States the
strongest annual growth since 2005.
The Great Recession ended nearly six years ago in June 2009, but growth
since the recovery began has been sub-par, averaging just 2.2 percent.
Despite the weak start, analysts believe 2015 will be the year when growth
accelerates to a more respectable level |
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