l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 Why Are Economists' Predictions So Damn Awful?
Economists have bought into the transitory soft patch thesis of the Fed,
hook line and sinker. Please consider Economists’ Forecast: Here We Grow
Again.
Forecasters in the latest Wall Street Journal survey estimated the U.S.
economy contracted at a 0.3% pace in the first quarter because of hits from
winter weather and the West Coast port slowdown. But the panel, on average,
sees annualized economic growth of 2.8% in the second quarter, supported by
stronger job gains and wage growth.
The survey of 62 economists, not all of whom answered every question,
showed a widespread expectation that consumers would start spending again
after several months of avoiding the mall. The May survey was conducted
before the Commerce Department reported retail sales were flat in April, but
some economists played down the number.
“The April spending numbers will look better once we get information on
services,” said Stuart Hoffman of PNC Financial Services. “That’s where
consumers are spending their money, and the April increase in restaurant
sales points to greater demand for services overall.”
On average, nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 223,000 per month
for the final three quarters of 2015, better than the 184,000 pace of the
first quarter. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 5.1% by the end
of this year from 5.4% in April.
Gregory Daco of Oxford Economics said the worst of the pain may have
already occurred, especially since energy companies reacted quickly to cheap
oil by cutting payrolls and capital-spending plans. “While trade and
energy will still have an impact, the drag will be less in the second half,
” he said.
“Solid job growth and low energy prices could stir spending,” said
Michael Moran of Daiwa Capital Markets.
Pathetic Performance
Here is an amusing chart of the Fed's own pathetic performance (from Honey I
Shrunk the Kids).
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UORFKZXwH0k/VVWGfxiBCOI/AAAAAAAAd0g/DQ_MnGQ0I00/s400/DGP%2BForecast.png
The date of that post is November 14, 2014. Pay particular attention to that
green 2015 line.
Here is the evolution of the Atlanta Fed "GDPNow" first quarter GDP Forecast
as of April 2, 2015.
GDPNow Estimate for 1st Quarter - April 2, 2015
GDPNow vs. Blue Chip
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2Z8idg_uajg/VVOWfMbh9pI/AAAAAAAAdyU/0Bcrc988WY0/s400/GDPNow%2B2015-05-13.png
Why the Awful Predictions?
Inquiring minds may be asking "Why Are Economists' Predictions So Damn Awful
?"
I was discussing this just yesterday with a small group that shares thoughts
every day.
My friend "BC" commented ... "The parasitic 'money-for-nothing' accumulation
of money-inflation-induced financial 'wealth' is now a huge net cost to
productive economic activity and the capacity of society to sustain its
standard of living. Few eCONomists can frame the situation in this way
because they are beholding to Wall Street and the top 0.001-1% owners of the
rentier-socialist corporate-state at the expense of the middle class".
Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog replied ... "I totally hate how they
have managed to buy off economists. There was time when economists were a
thorn in the side of the ruling classes. Previously, the profession required
one to tell impolitic truths. Today's economists are spokesmen for the most
viciously statist ideology and have essentially become servants of the
beast, paid far above their market value for the propaganda services they
render."
Self-Preservation Bias
I have commented on this before as well. Investment firms typically get paid
on investments, not counting cash. The way to get people invested in
something is to be 100% bullish, 100% of the time.
Moreover, you never get fired for being too bullish. Heaven forbid you miss
a big rally even if it is as speculative as the dot-com boom in 1999 or the
housing boom in 2006.
Explaining the Bias
The Fed as no vested interest in spooking anyone
Home builders and realtors always say "now is a good time to buy a home"
The sell side investment houses always come up with reasons to buy
stocks.
No one ever gets fired for being too bullish
As a self-preservation mechanism, economists are trained to be bullish. A
good example of a trade bias is the National Association of Home Builders'
Housing Market Index.
In spite of consistently poor traffic for years, home builders have
maintained very strong expectations of future home sales. | a*******1
发帖数: 1554 | 2 其实经济学家很多都是用时间序列（计量经济学）来研究的，那主要是用来控制和解释
的，不是用来预测的。如果要预测，应该找真正学统计、机器学习、数据挖掘的那帮人
，经济学家那套不行的。
所以说，经济学家说的什么“最低工资阻碍就业”“政府不应干预经济”“取缔工会”
“减少福利”等提议也是值得怀疑的，毕竟搞经济的其实分析能力是比不上那些读数学
、统计的，更是远远比不上搞政治那帮人精。听他们的，还不如听奥大总统的。 | S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 3 Economists and stock analysts are the only professionals that enjoy
unparalleled benefit of doubt, when in fact it is their prediction that
missed the reality, it will be reported that GDP/earning/revenue/... miss/
exceed as if their is something wrong with the data.
I truly wish I can report to my boss: The newest experimental data missed
model expectation, we expect the next experiment performance would bounce
back and agree with the model expectation.
【在 a*******1 的大作中提到】
: 其实经济学家很多都是用时间序列（计量经济学）来研究的，那主要是用来控制和解释
: 的，不是用来预测的。如果要预测，应该找真正学统计、机器学习、数据挖掘的那帮人
: ，经济学家那套不行的。
: 所以说，经济学家说的什么“最低工资阻碍就业”“政府不应干预经济”“取缔工会”
: “减少福利”等提议也是值得怀疑的，毕竟搞经济的其实分析能力是比不上那些读数学
: 、统计的，更是远远比不上搞政治那帮人精。听他们的，还不如听奥大总统的。
| a**t
发帖数: 3833 | 4 Does this help Hillary 2016 by any means?
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Economists and stock analysts are the only professionals that enjoy
: unparalleled benefit of doubt, when in fact it is their prediction that
: missed the reality, it will be reported that GDP/earning/revenue/... miss/
: exceed as if their is something wrong with the data.
: I truly wish I can report to my boss: The newest experimental data missed
: model expectation, we expect the next experiment performance would bounce
: back and agree with the model expectation.
| S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 5 Why should I care? I lived in a state that are solidly blue. As a matter of
fact, more than 1 billion dollars will be spend, target probably less than 1
million people in probably less than 100 zip code. And the message will be?
Vote me because the other guy is far worse. |
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