h*s
发帖数: 2134 | |
s*******1
发帖数: 16479 | |
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 3 The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll was conducted March 1-3 among 2,229 registered
voters.
ARG poll was conducted after the debate.
Trump needs to do something to stop Kasich.
【在 h*s 的大作中提到】
: 还是这个扯淡
: 总有一个扯淡的
: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-hill
|
I********w
发帖数: 763 | |
c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 5 这次选举很crazy，真是不到结果不好说。
从nv后，trump有些表现低于预期。
【在 h*s 的大作中提到】
: 还是这个扯淡
: 总有一个扯淡的
: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-hill
|
s**p
发帖数: 518 | 6 这个poll是Mar1-3，中间有个debate，那个poll是debate结束后做的，不过那个poll的
sample size比较小。那个poll的致命地方是trend。
【在 h*s 的大作中提到】
: 还是这个扯淡
: 总有一个扯淡的
: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-hill
|
s*******1
发帖数: 16479 | 7 昨晚的讲演出效果了吧
【在 I********w 的大作中提到】
: CBS最新的poll也显示Trump大幅领先(+15):
: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
|
l******d
发帖数: 1633 | 8 arg 的 poll 是 pro kasich
from 538
I’m seeing a lot of people get excited about an American Research Group
poll that shows Kasich (!) pulling ahead of Trump in Michigan, 33 percent to
31 percent. It’s a newsy result, but here’s why you should be a little
skeptical.
First, American Research Group is not a highly-rated pollster. In fact, they
rank toward the bottom of our pollster ratings. Much to their credit, they
’ll sometimes post results that are way different from the pack, so you can
’t accuse them of herding. But their results are interesting more often
than they’re accurate.
Second, ARG has (for whatever reason) a large, pro-Kasich “house effect.”
On average, their polls have been about 6 percentage points more favorable
to Kasich than other polls conducted of the same states at about the same
time.
Third, there are a lot of other recent polls of Michigan and they don’t
show anything like that result. True, not quite as recent as ARG’s poll,
which was conducted yesterday and today. But pretty recent nonetheless.
Our polling average in Michigan, which adjusts for house effects, accounts
for pollster quality and tries to balance recency against other factors, has
Kasich at 19.4 percent in Michigan. That’s good for second place, but it’
s still well behind Trump’s 35.9 percent.
Of course, it’s definitely possible that Trump’s numbers are declining
based on the debate and other events of recent days. That would give Kasich,
Cruz and Rubio a better chance to pick up wins down the road. But the
better indication of that is the poor results Trump has gotten so far
tonight, and not an ARG poll.
【在 h*s 的大作中提到】
: 还是这个扯淡
: 总有一个扯淡的
: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-hill
|
s**p
发帖数: 518 | 9 这个poll太鼓舞士气了，而且是今天的：）估计是sampling的问题。成败就看Michigan
的选民了。
【在 I********w 的大作中提到】
: CBS最新的poll也显示Trump大幅领先(+15):
: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
|
T*********I
发帖数: 10729 | |
|
|
r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 11 川普初选Primary还没有输过，别过度操心。 |
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 12 Hope so.
Looks that Trump bottomed on the debate night. He can only get better from
there.
But please do something, anything to slow Kasich.
to
they
they
can
【在 l******d 的大作中提到】
: arg 的 poll 是 pro kasich
: from 538
: I’m seeing a lot of people get excited about an American Research Group
: poll that shows Kasich (!) pulling ahead of Trump in Michigan, 33 percent to
: 31 percent. It’s a newsy result, but here’s why you should be a little
: skeptical.
: First, American Research Group is not a highly-rated pollster. In fact, they
: rank toward the bottom of our pollster ratings. Much to their credit, they
: ’ll sometimes post results that are way different from the pack, so you can
: ’t accuse them of herding. But their results are interesting more often
|
f*******7
发帖数: 2210 | 13 TX OK 发来贺电了
【在 r******g 的大作中提到】
: 川普初选Primary还没有输过，别过度操心。
|
P*O
发帖数: 4324 | 14 呵呵就是加州这种地方俺都见到好几个一直支持哦8的说床铺很有意思，选谁不定，到
大选时候看。俺觉得很多人不敢说自己支持床铺。 |
t***h
发帖数: 2924 | 15 我见到华人教会的人95%极力反对trump, 说到trump都是一脸讨厌的表情，
说他象希特勒。
不知道华人教会是怎么抹黑宣传他的。 真是悲哀。 一群受过高等教育的人，
居然看不出来trump是美国的救星， 是华人在美国争取平权的最好的盟友。
这些华人自己受着黑人墨西哥人的欺压， 却还在那里高谈爱和平等， 一群
东郭先生。 最可笑的是坚决反对trump限制穆斯林入境的主张， 认为他违反
宗教自由。 TNND, 穆斯林什么时候给国异教徒宗教自由了？ 他们每天琢磨
的是怎么杀异教徒， 基督教的人在穆斯林眼里就是该杀的。
【在 P*O 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵就是加州这种地方俺都见到好几个一直支持哦8的说床铺很有意思，选谁不定，到
: 大选时候看。俺觉得很多人不敢说自己支持床铺。
|
x****a
发帖数: 817 | 16 K is acceptable to me. He looks like a very decent man, an outsider, and
down-to-earth.
I think the folks on the right should really give him some consideration. As
president, he may actually have some chance to tune down the rhetoric, and
get something done for the country.
Mr. Trump is okey too, but he's such a bull-dog and already pissed off so
many, not sure whether he'll be effective as president. And, he's a bit too
old for the job.
So, if you guys really like Mr. Trump, vote for him. But, please vote for K
as your 2nd choice.
By all means, do not listen to the "I am the real conservative" folks, and
vote for C. For one thing, he will lose in GE, and you guys lose the Supreme
Court.
【在 h*s 的大作中提到】
: 还是这个扯淡
: 总有一个扯淡的
: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-hill
|
h*s
发帖数: 2134 | 17 这个家伙支持common core
As
and
too
K
【在 x****a 的大作中提到】
: K is acceptable to me. He looks like a very decent man, an outsider, and
: down-to-earth.
: I think the folks on the right should really give him some consideration. As
: president, he may actually have some chance to tune down the rhetoric, and
: get something done for the country.
: Mr. Trump is okey too, but he's such a bull-dog and already pissed off so
: many, not sure whether he'll be effective as president. And, he's a bit too
: old for the job.
: So, if you guys really like Mr. Trump, vote for him. But, please vote for K
: as your 2nd choice.
|
x****a
发帖数: 817 | 18 Who, K?
What's wrong with common core? If it's not perfect, why not improve it?
Supporting a standard of education is not a bad thing in principle.
I don't understand why you guys from the right are so obsessed by those
little things...
【在 h*s 的大作中提到】
: 这个家伙支持common core
:
: As
: and
: too
: K
|
h*s
发帖数: 2134 | 19 这不是小事，我估计你老的孩子已经大了，上大学了
不太关心，这个commoncore的害处非常大，你看看网上的抱怨就明白了
【在 x****a 的大作中提到】
: Who, K?
: What's wrong with common core? If it's not perfect, why not improve it?
: Supporting a standard of education is not a bad thing in principle.
: I don't understand why you guys from the right are so obsessed by those
: little things...
|
l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 20 这些傻逼等到那一天活不下去了，就知道怎么一回事了。所以说，为什么川普在神棍州
那么艰难？
【在 t***h 的大作中提到】
: 我见到华人教会的人95%极力反对trump, 说到trump都是一脸讨厌的表情，
: 说他象希特勒。
: 不知道华人教会是怎么抹黑宣传他的。 真是悲哀。 一群受过高等教育的人，
: 居然看不出来trump是美国的救星， 是华人在美国争取平权的最好的盟友。
: 这些华人自己受着黑人墨西哥人的欺压， 却还在那里高谈爱和平等， 一群
: 东郭先生。 最可笑的是坚决反对trump限制穆斯林入境的主张， 认为他违反
: 宗教自由。 TNND, 穆斯林什么时候给国异教徒宗教自由了？ 他们每天琢磨
: 的是怎么杀异教徒， 基督教的人在穆斯林眼里就是该杀的。
|
|
|
s*******1
发帖数: 16479 | 21 怀疑。死的时候都觉得上天堂了。死倔死倔的
任何以宗教指导一切的神棍都是把人类社会往回拉
【在 l**********1 的大作中提到】
: 这些傻逼等到那一天活不下去了，就知道怎么一回事了。所以说，为什么川普在神棍州
: 那么艰难？
|
n****5
发帖数: 81 | 22 Kasich can NOT beat Hillary. How many ordinary people heard of his name
before this election? How many are really impressed by him so far other than
that he seems to be a decent guy?
As
and
too
K
【在 x****a 的大作中提到】
: K is acceptable to me. He looks like a very decent man, an outsider, and
: down-to-earth.
: I think the folks on the right should really give him some consideration. As
: president, he may actually have some chance to tune down the rhetoric, and
: get something done for the country.
: Mr. Trump is okey too, but he's such a bull-dog and already pissed off so
: many, not sure whether he'll be effective as president. And, he's a bit too
: old for the job.
: So, if you guys really like Mr. Trump, vote for him. But, please vote for K
: as your 2nd choice.
|
x****a
发帖数: 817 | 23 Nevertheless, is that really the job of the president?
I think we can all agree that the country needs to invest more in education
and the future. As a president, set the priority, pick the right people, and
leave the details to them.
【在 h*s 的大作中提到】
: 这不是小事，我估计你老的孩子已经大了，上大学了
: 不太关心，这个commoncore的害处非常大，你看看网上的抱怨就明白了
|
c****a
发帖数: 3173 | 24 Ted是后来居上了。。相对来说床铺落后了。加油。。 |
