d********8
发帖数: 1134 | |
b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | |
R*****g
发帖数: 1649 | 3 等不到那天，老太说不定就锒铛入狱了。
【在 d********8 的大作中提到】
: 相信不？
|
H***l
发帖数: 1936 | 4 只要没人舞弊， 初选床铺必赢加州。
到了大选，床铺也不指望赢CA
【在 d********8 的大作中提到】
: 相信不？
|
m*****u
发帖数: 1727 | 5 那个一共和党人有戏？
【在 d********8 的大作中提到】
: 相信不？
|
b*****e
发帖数: 53215 | 6 你讲这种人人都知道的废话有什么意思
【在 d********8 的大作中提到】
: 相信不？
|
x****d
发帖数: 2239 | |
b*********6
发帖数: 142 | |
R*****n
发帖数: 355 | 9 GE in CA
不需要有戏
【在 d********8 的大作中提到】
: 相信不？
|
b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 10 hehe. good one!
【在 x****d 的大作中提到】
: Hillary 在德州没戏，你tmd相信吗？
|
|
|
r*******l
发帖数: 511 | 11 共和党在加州？
GE神仙都没戏
【在 b*****d 的大作中提到】
: hehe. good one!
|
g***e
发帖数: 4074 | 12 这个未必。不过川普出来的话确实没戏。
当年里根就是加州的
就连健美先生也拿下过州长
【在 r*******l 的大作中提到】
: 共和党在加州？
: GE神仙都没戏
|
b*****e
发帖数: 53215 | 13 当年加州还不是现在这个样子 阿诺的老婆是啃泥地家的人 不是一般的共党
【在 g***e 的大作中提到】
: 这个未必。不过川普出来的话确实没戏。
: 当年里根就是加州的
: 就连健美先生也拿下过州长
|
h******k
发帖数: 15372 | 14 里根选的那会儿没有那么多龙虾党，实际上龙虾党就是里根一手培养出来的。
健美先生那是选州长，州长任何州两党都有机会，因为都是本地化的两党。里根之后选
总统共和党在加州没戏。
【在 g***e 的大作中提到】
: 这个未必。不过川普出来的话确实没戏。
: 当年里根就是加州的
: 就连健美先生也拿下过州长
|
m***a
发帖数: 2262 | 15
老布什1988年赢了加州
【在 h******k 的大作中提到】
: 里根选的那会儿没有那么多龙虾党，实际上龙虾党就是里根一手培养出来的。
: 健美先生那是选州长，州长任何州两党都有机会，因为都是本地化的两党。里根之后选
: 总统共和党在加州没戏。
|
b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 16 90年代以后就没戏了。很多人把这个归功于90年代GOP通过的最严厉的反移民法案。这
个法案通过后，GOP就和latino说byebye了。
http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2013/10/17/prop187effect/
According to polling data from the California Field Poll, after winning the
presidential election in 1980, former California Governor Ronald Reagan
raised his share of the Latino vote from 35% to 45% in 1984 while carrying
59% of the entire state. Republicans went on to win the Golden state again
in 1988. Since that election, three significant changes have reshaped
California politics in a manner that has made the Republican Party nearly
irrelevant:
1. The Latino share of the total California electorate has dramatically
increased.
2. California Republicans embarked on an anti-immigrant agenda that
alienated Latino voters and drove them into the open arms of the Democratic
Party.
3. Republicans are unable to compete for California’s 55 Electoral College
votes, which amounts to 20% of the total 270 necessary to win a presidential
election.
As the Latino voter population grows across other states, and a rigorous
debate unfolds about immigration reform, we take this opportunity to revisit
lessons learned from California. How did California go from a Republican
stronghold to a Democratic lock? The answer is clear – anti-immigrant
policy and a frustrated and mobilized Latino vote. In a comprehensive
review of academic research published in political science journals and
public opinion polling and surveys from 1994 to 2013, Latino Decisions
senior analysts Dr. David Damore and Dr. Adrian Pantoja, detail what they
call “The Prop 187 Effect.” [Full report | PPT slide deck]
It is now well established in both the political science research community
and real world campaign politics that the mid-1990s Pete Wilson era of
California Republicanism was a historic turning point in the state’s
politics. Prop. 187, the infamous anti-immigrant ballot measure, which was
championed by then Governor Pete Wilson in his re-election bid, resulted in
significant backlash and political mobilization among California Latino
voters. Following Prop. 187 were additional anti-immigrant measures such as
Prop. 209 and Prop. 227 that proposed to outlaw affirmative action and
bilingual education. Since 1996 when Latinos first comprised more than 10%
of the state electorate, Latino partisanship has grown to over 70%
Democratic. In light of these dynamics, it is little wonder that California
has become an easy win for the Democrats?
Take for example a comparison of California then and now. In 1994 the GOP
held 26 of 52 (50%) U.S. House seats in the California delegation. Today
they hold just 15 of 53 (28%). From 1948 until 1992 Republicans won
California in 9 of 10 presidential elections. From 1992 to 2012 Democrats
have swept 6 of 6 presidential elections. Below, we make the case that this
was primarily due to the Latino vote.
【在 m***a 的大作中提到】
:
: 老布什1988年赢了加州
|
g******u
发帖数: 66 | 17 我也在加州，我接触的几个人都放弃民主党，准备投trump了。 |
n*****s
发帖数: 6495 | 18 还是讨论能不能赢纽约州更有意思点
要能搞定纽约跟附近的NJ，CT之类主党铁盘，基本也差不多了 |
p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | |
Y******8
发帖数: 80 | 20 6/7日我在洛杉矶义务工作投票站我问过了加州投票不看ID |
