g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 1 One of the most respected and accurate forecasting models in political
sciences says that Donald Trump will win the 2016 presidential election, and
by a fairly comfortable margin at that.
Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" makes
predictions by considering how the economy is doing (measured by the GDP
growth rate the second quarter of the election year), how popular the
incumbent is (measured by his Gallup approval rating at the end of June),
and whether the incumbent is running for reelection. It has correctly
predicted every presidential election since 1992.
If the tepid first quarter GDP growth rate of 0.8 percent keeps up, as does
Gallup's current +9 net approval rating for Obama, then the model suggests a
Trump victory, 51.3 percent to Hillary Clinton's 48.7 percent. Even if GDP
growth shot up dramatically to 3 percent, the model would still project a
Trump win.
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/14/11854512/trump-election-models-political-science |
g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 2 这个预测还有点科学依据，比那些poll准确度更高。 |
z****0
发帖数: 3942 | 3 good job! 这个预测比左臂媒体的民调靠谱多了。
and
does
【在 g********2 的大作中提到】
: One of the most respected and accurate forecasting models in political
: sciences says that Donald Trump will win the 2016 presidential election, and
: by a fairly comfortable margin at that.
: Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" makes
: predictions by considering how the economy is doing (measured by the GDP
: growth rate the second quarter of the election year), how popular the
: incumbent is (measured by his Gallup approval rating at the end of June),
: and whether the incumbent is running for reelection. It has correctly
: predicted every presidential election since 1992.
: If the tepid first quarter GDP growth rate of 0.8 percent keeps up, as does
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o******l
发帖数: 2324 | 4 这个版左逼右棍都是改骂就骂该赞就赞，只有你这个宣传员在那里阴阳怪气。
【在 z****0 的大作中提到】
: good job! 这个预测比左臂媒体的民调靠谱多了。
:
: and
: does
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 5 其实，美国大选的投票率不高。奥黑前两次当选，主要是老黑大规模地出来投票。这一
次也一样，谁的支持者比较热情，谁就能赢。从目前来看，老婊子的支持者明显是可投
可不投，川普的支持者就很有激情。七月一过，老川一马平川！ |
f****g
发帖数: 23666 | 6 这难说吧，我看反川普的也很疯狂跟打了鸡血似的。
【在 i**********k 的大作中提到】
: 其实，美国大选的投票率不高。奥黑前两次当选，主要是老黑大规模地出来投票。这一
: 次也一样，谁的支持者比较热情，谁就能赢。从目前来看，老婊子的支持者明显是可投
: 可不投，川普的支持者就很有激情。七月一过，老川一马平川！
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 7 其实，大选主要看摇摆州，2012年奥黑在摇摆州基本上是险胜，就说明今年川普机会比
老婊子大得多。
【在 f****g 的大作中提到】
: 这难说吧，我看反川普的也很疯狂跟打了鸡血似的。
|
g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 8 这个model没考虑国家安全问题，如果加进去，应该对川普更有利。 |
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 9 米犹媒体不同意你的观点，它们一定会加工一些poll来打脸。
【在 g********2 的大作中提到】
: 这个model没考虑国家安全问题，如果加进去，应该对川普更有利。
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b*******m
发帖数: 5492 | 10 反串普的基本上是拿钱的，啥时候钱跟不上立马走人；川粉都是自干五，纯粹为了理念
。谁的战斗力强，谁的战斗意志坚定你可以自己推断。
这个跟08年华人出来护火炬跟脏毒分子搞比较像，那次也是媒体一边倒，不过最后怎么
样？赫赫
【在 f****g 的大作中提到】
: 这难说吧，我看反川普的也很疯狂跟打了鸡血似的。
|
