g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 1 By A. PHILLIP CHARLES
WASHINGTON – The Politik is predicting that on Tuesday, November 8, 2016,
Donald J. Trump will win a landslide election, to become the 45th President
of the United States.
2012 and 2016
In 2012, Barack Obama won reelection with 65.9 million votes. Mitt Romney
finished 5 million votes behind, at 60.9 million. That earned Obama 332
electoral votes to Romney’s 206.
Just four years earlier, Obama had become the first African American ever to
be elected president of the United States, winning the highest amount of
votes (69.5 million) by any presidential candidate in history. Despite his
historic nature and relative popularity, his margin of victory decreased
from 2008. Consequently, Obama became the first incumbent in seven decades
to get reelected with fewer electoral votes and a lower popular vote
percentage.
Obama lost approximately 3.6 million votes from 2008 to 2012. Romney gained
slightly on 2008 candidate John McCain’s 59.9 million.
The takeaway from the 2012 election, as it relates to 2016, is that Barack
Obama was a once in a lifetime type of candidate. The first African-
American candidate. He was young. He was fresh and his candidacy embodied
the sort of ‘change’ that so many dissatisfied American’s felt following
a long war in Iraq and the financial collapse of the U.S. housing market.
And despite all that popularity, enthusiasm and African-American turnout, he
still only attained 51.1% of the popular vote in 2012.
Hillary Clinton stands no chance of besting the numbers of Barack Obama from
2012. She is far less popular. She has far less charisma. She does not
inspire enthusiasm, and she comes with a lifetime of corrupt decisions and
illegal behavior.
Primary Changes by the Numbers
In 2008, the last time the Democrats did not have an incumbent on the ticket
, they had approximately 38 million Primary voters. In 2016, that number
slipped to approximately 30 million. A loss of 8 million primary voters.
In 2008, Republicans had 21 million primary voters. In 2012, the number
slipped to 19 million. In 2016 however, the GOP had over 30 million primary
voters – approximately 9-10 million more than 2008.
That is a change of approximately 17-18 million voters in favor of the GOP.
John McCain lost by 10 million votes.
Mitt Romney lost by 5 million votes.
And since 2008, the Democrats have lost 8 million primary voters while the
GOP has gained about 10 million.
Donald Trump the Rock Star
Trump is the most popular and captivating candidate the party has nominated
since Ronald Reagan. A successful businessman, Trump has been in the world
spotlight for years and became a household name over the past decade with a
successful reality TV show on NBC, ‘The Apprentice’ and ‘Celebrity
Apprentice’.
His name adorns buildings, casinos and resorts all over the world.
Everywhere he has gone, for over a year now, throngs of fans and voters
stand in lines thousands deep and hours long. In early August, in a Daytona
Beach arena, Trump drew 8,000 screaming fans, while Hillary could only
muster a few hundred the same day at a high school gym in Colorado. Later
that night, in Jacksonville, Trump drew 15,000 people. This is a normal
occurrence on the campaign trail.
Again, Hillary inspires no confidence in voters. Donald Trump has to turn
away far more fans that Clinton can even draw at a campaign event. This is
meaningful as it relates to who actually will make an effort to vote.
To prove how far his national appeal is, Trump won big in every region of
the map: Northeast, Southeast, South, Midwest, Rust Belt, Northwest, West
and Southwest. He won more primary votes than any candidate in the history
of the party, and he did so with 17 candidates running.
He won a landslide primary, in a year in which three very popular elected
officials from the big states of Texas, Florida and Ohio were running
against him. That alone made it impossible for almost any candidate besides
Ted Cruz in Texas, Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio in Florida and John Kasich in
Ohio, to win. Not only did Trump win, but did so with ease.
The Democrats’ Minority Problem
One myth among the typical media narrative is that Republicans have a
minority voter problem. In reality, it’s the Democrats that do. In 2012,
when Barack Obama won only 51% of the vote, it took him winning the black
vote 93-6, and it also required historically high turnout from that group.
Hillary, at minimum, needs to match Obama’s 93-6 margin with black voters,
and needs every single black voter that turned out in 2012. That isn’t
going to happen. She may achieve the margin. She won’t come close to
getting the same turnout.
The Democrats have an electoral problem, in that they need 95% of the black
vote, with large turnout, just to win a general election.
Not only is a problem today, but its a far bigger problem for them in the
future. As groups of a demographic grow in size, they also become more
diverse. The chances are that Blacks will vote less and less for Democrat
in the future, as they grow in size and diversify from evolution.
The GOP has been Destroying Democrats in elections since 2009
When it comes to elections, the GOP has been faring better against Democrats
over the last 7 years, than they ever have previously. In 2010, the GOP
took back the House of Representatives with a 63-seat pickup, and also
grabbed control of 29 of 50 governorships and gained 690 seats in state
legislatures.
Then in 2014, The Republicans won 16 seats from Democrats, while only three
Republican-held seats turned Democratic. The Republicans achieved their
largest majority in the House since 1928. Combined with the Republican
gains made in 2010, the total number of Democratic-held House seats lost
under Barack Obama’s presidency in midterm elections rose to 77 with the
2014 midterms.
Other than Barack Obama’s unimpressive reelection against Mitt Romney in
2012, the Democrats have been losing every type of election imaginable to
Republicans.
The Variable Factors
Hillary Clinton is also on the losing end of almost all variables that play
in elections.
She is the incumbent party seeking a third consecutive term, which is
rarely a good thing
The Economy is not producing with 90 million unemployed Americans and
only 1.2 % growth.
ISIS and Terrorism is striking all over the western world and within the
United States borders. The Democrats refuse to even say the phrase “
Islamic Terrorism.”
Nearly 80% of the country thinks the United States is going in the wrong
direction and Hillary Clinton has been directly involved in government for
the last 25 years. In these times, experience is not a good thing.
Trump is unabashedly pro-American while the Democrats give off a
perception that they are embarrassed by being associated as an American.
Trump has taken strong positions on two issues that are driving massive
new voters to him: Immigration and Free Trade. Both of these issues hit
right at the heart of the forgotten middle class, that has seen their jobs
traded away oversees by their own elected officials.
Over the past 70 or so years, typically the more physically overpowering
ticket wins. Trump/Pence or Clinton/Kaine? Who seems tougher to you?
Her husband Bill Clinton never received even half of the vote during his
two Electoral College victories in 1992 and 1996. The Clintons are not as
popular as the media would have you believe.
Hillary doesn’t have the heart of her party’s voters. Bernie Sanders
did. And unfortunately for the Democrats, the heart of their party’s
voters lost.
Trump, on the hand, is the heart of the party and beat the powerful
interests groups trying to steal it from him and his record setting amount
of voters.
The Secret-Trump Vote
Don’t even bother looking at a poll. If they were any accurate or valuable
at predicting, then the people who ran them would be billionaires.
As we learned from the DNC-WikiLeaks scandal, the Democratic Party and
Mainstream Media manipulate polls for nothing other than headlines and
talking points, meant to drive narratives and suppress Republican turnout.
Instead, think of the facts.
In 2012, the voting age population was 235 million, but only 129 million
voted.
Both parties left a possible 106 million votes on the table.
Because of Donald Trump’s candidacy, all the rules have been thrown out.
We’ve seen that few of the old political playbook tricks work against him.
Money being spent by his opponents have all gone to waste.
We saw every single professional political pundit in the country get the
entire primary season wrong – on both sides.
The media and their phony polling consultants don’t have any clue what
turnout will look like. If they did, they wouldn’t have bungled their
Trump and Clinton predictions so badly in the primaries.
What we do know is that Trump is attracting voters from all over the map and
into the Republican fold, just to vote for him. It’s how he unexpectedly
massacred 16 opponents in the primary.
It’s how he will massacre Hillary Clinton in the general election.
When the media tells you that this race is close or that Hillary is leading,
just simply laugh it all off.
This election is already over and Donald Trump will be the 45th President of
the United States.
https://the-politik.com/2016/08/04/trump_will_win_landslide/ | t****n
发帖数: 252 | | H*******g
发帖数: 6997 | 3 你自裁吗？
【在 t****n 的大作中提到】
: 哈哈哈。三个月后再看这篇。
| r*********e
发帖数: 7733 | 4 看完了。这才是真正的统计分析。
President
to
【在 g********2 的大作中提到】
: By A. PHILLIP CHARLES
: WASHINGTON – The Politik is predicting that on Tuesday, November 8, 2016,
: Donald J. Trump will win a landslide election, to become the 45th President
: of the United States.
: 2012 and 2016
: In 2012, Barack Obama won reelection with 65.9 million votes. Mitt Romney
: finished 5 million votes behind, at 60.9 million. That earned Obama 332
: electoral votes to Romney’s 206.
: Just four years earlier, Obama had become the first African American ever to
: be elected president of the United States, winning the highest amount of
| r**********f
发帖数: 2808 | 5 Mark. Excellent!
Under President Obama, Democrats have lost 900+ state legislature seats, 12
governors, 69 House seats, 13 Senate seats. | y**********8
发帖数: 392 | 6 那你输了怎么办
【在 t****n 的大作中提到】
: 哈哈哈。三个月后再看这篇。
| T**********2
发帖数: 341 | 7 同意这篇文章的分析。去过Trump的rally,Trump的支持者们的热情非常高，我觉得
Trump will be the 45th POTUS. | y**********8
发帖数: 392 | 8 怎么参加 需要提前报名吗 想去看看
【在 T**********2 的大作中提到】
: 同意这篇文章的分析。去过Trump的rally,Trump的支持者们的热情非常高，我觉得
: Trump will be the 45th POTUS.
| T**********2
发帖数: 341 | 9 去Trump的网站， check Schedule page, 如果有你附近的rally, 就click Get Ticket
, 拿了票就可以去了。不过参加rally的时候，要提前几个小时去排队，才有可能进得
去。我第一次去Trump rally的时候，提前2个小时到达，排了2个多小时的队，结果到
最后被通知人满了把能进去，成了几千不能进去的人之一。你也可以subscribe to his
email list, you will receive email notification when Trump holds rally near
you.
: 怎么参加 需要提前报名吗 想去看看
【在 y**********8 的大作中提到】
: 怎么参加 需要提前报名吗 想去看看
| y**********8
发帖数: 392 | 10 谢谢
Ticket
his
near
【在 T**********2 的大作中提到】
: 去Trump的网站， check Schedule page, 如果有你附近的rally, 就click Get Ticket
: , 拿了票就可以去了。不过参加rally的时候，要提前几个小时去排队，才有可能进得
: 去。我第一次去Trump rally的时候，提前2个小时到达，排了2个多小时的队，结果到
: 最后被通知人满了把能进去，成了几千不能进去的人之一。你也可以subscribe to his
: email list, you will receive email notification when Trump holds rally near
: you.
:
:
: 怎么参加 需要提前报名吗 想去看看
:
| | | w****i
发帖数: 2369 | | f*********1
发帖数: 2518 | 12 再看就很恨自己没有作者这样的预见能力
【在 t****n 的大作中提到】
: 哈哈哈。三个月后再看这篇。
| r***i
发帖数: 9780 | 13 恐怕不太可能碾压，美国sb太多了
吃福利的都超过一半了 | q*c
发帖数: 9453 | 14 就算是傻逼也知道， 国家富强了才有龙虾吃。
近 20 年中产收入不增加， 就算傻逼也知道“we need a change".
Trump change 不 change 不好说， 但是傻逼也知道 希拉里那是铁定的不会 change.
【在 r***i 的大作中提到】
: 恐怕不太可能碾压，美国sb太多了
: 吃福利的都超过一半了
| R*****n
发帖数: 355 | | l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 16 老婊子没有作弊基本赢不了吧。大部分选民对她没有热情，只有厌恶，即使有假民调支
持。支持川普的选民情绪高涨。 | g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 17 And since 2008, the Democrats have lost 8 million primary voters while the
GOP has gained about 10 million.
——赞数据！ |
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