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发帖数: 2053 | 1 http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-election-2016/index.html
(CNN)Donald Trump is aiming to pull off one of the greatest political
comebacks in history.
The Republican nominee is rebounding from a summer of repeated stumbles that
threatened to undermine his candidacy, underscoring his ability to claw his
way back and stay competitive despite controversies that would sink any
other politician.
Poll: Nine weeks out, a near even race
Trump and Hillary Clinton enter the critical post-Labor Day phase of the
campaign in a dead heat. A CNN/ORC national poll released Tuesday finds
Trump ahead of Clinton by two points -- 45% to 43% -- among likely voters.
The race is also tight among registered voters, where Clinton has a three
point advantage. Both findings are within the margin of error.
The narrowing of the race is a remarkable feat for Trump, who was down 10
points a month ago in CNN's Poll of Polls.
Trump still faces serious hurdles that strong poll numbers can't mask. He's
alienated much of the electorate, especially minorities who showed up in
droves over the past two cycles to support Barack Obama. He's doing poorly
among college-educated women, who are typically a Republican stronghold, and
his rudimentary organization is dwarfed by Clinton's political machine in
swing states where he still lags in most polls.
Narrow path to the White House
But if Trump can spend the next 63 days shining a relentless and unforgiving
spotlight on Clinton's vulnerabilities and avoid more self-inflicted wounds
, there could be a path -- however narrow -- for him to reach the White
House.
"Can he fundamentally alter the focus of this election right now — which is
on him?" asked Bill Lacy, a GOP veteran who ran presidential campaigns for
Bob Dole and Fred Thompson. "He needs to make this election about Secretary
Clinton."
Trump's best chance for altering the race lies in the presidential debates,
which begin September 26 and will serve as critical tests of his temperament
and knowledge. In front of a vast television audience, the GOP nominee
could reshape perceptions of his character and readiness -- if he can avoid
being drawn into gaffes and personality clashes by Clinton.
He will benefit from rock-bottom expectations, given controversies whipped
up by his tempestuous personality and the vast gulf in experience between
Trump and Clinton.
But the formal one-on-one presidential debates -- which personify the "
commander-in-chief test" many Americans ponder as they select their next
president -- are a far stiffer test for Trump than the crowded free-for-alls
of the Republican primary race.
Trump's minority outreach off to rough start
There will be no space for the billionaire to relax and regenerate his
energy while rivals spar or networks cut to commercial breaks. The intensity
of the questioning and his confrontation with a prepared and experienced
candidate like Clinton will leave no place to hide.
Still, there is much for him to gain in the three scheduled televised
showdowns and he will get an unfiltered chance to raise Clinton's political
vulnerabilities before the American people.
Clinton's liabilities
Those liabilities, and the historic challenge Clinton faces in seeking a
third consecutive White House term for her party and the nation's sour
political mood, also help explain why Trump is still alive.
In recent weeks, the Democratic nominee has yet again been hounded by the
controversy over the private email server that has revived questions about
her character and honesty. Her campaign has also been forced to deny claims
of influence peddling between her family's philanthropic Clinton Foundation
and the State Department while she ran US diplomacy.
In an interview Monday with CNN's Jeff Zeleny, Vice President Joe Biden
acknowledged Clinton's struggles with questions about honesty.
"The truth is Hillary knows it's a problem and she's trying to figure out
how to remedy it," Biden said. "My advice to her: The best way to remedy it
is to talk about what you care about and talk about it with some passion and
people will see through it."
For his part, Trump needs to do more than simply disqualify Clinton. He must
show he's ready to lead the nation.
Trump campaign uses Sanders' words to knock Clinton over foundation ties
To mount an authentic comeback, Trump must finally forge an emotional
connection with voters outside his natural base, who have yet to embrace his
vision of a nation under siege from terror and crime.
"His appeal to the base Republican vote that won him the nomination in
effect has turned many swing voters and Democratic voters against him," said
Lacy. "He has to address it by being presidential and doing so constantly."
The Clinton campaign doubts Trump has it in him.
"He would have to do things in the last eight weeks that he appears to have
been incapable of doing in the last 16 months," said Clinton's chief
strategist Joel Benenson, citing Trump's need to build a ground game, court
swing voters and improve his appeal to suburban women.
Clinton is banking on a huge turnout from minority voters who helped Obama
win the presidency in 2008 and 2012. So far, Trump's attempts to improve his
paltry standing among voters who are suspicious of him has been halting and
awkward.
Last week, for instance, his trip to Mexico had clear presidential overtones
. But hours later, he delivered an angry speech on immigration that further
alienated Latino voters and prompted some Latino GOP leaders to take back
their endorsement of Trump. And on Monday, he refused to rule out granting
legal status to undocumented immigrants.
And on Saturday, Trump met an African-American congregation in Detroit in a
bid to counter claims he is a racist. He was politely received but didn't
seem to change many minds, according to interviews by CNN afterward.
Still, signs of life in Trump's polling and his energetic performance last
week cheer some GOP operatives.
'The wind is at our back'
"It's not just the crowd size, and the enthusiasm and the rallies, but it's
(that) all of these polls are now closing in major ways," Republican
National Committee Chief Strategist Sean Spicer told CNN. "Look at the wind
right now ... the wind is at our back."
Still, Trump has fewer routes than Clinton to the 270 electoral votes needed
to win the presidency.
He must start by taking solid red states such as Arizona and Georgia, where
Clinton is unusually competitive, off the table. He must also lock down
North Carolina, a swing state in recent elections without which he may lack
a credible route to 270 electoral votes.
House Republicans find success separating from Trump
Then Trump must close in on Clinton in all the swing states, in Iowa and
Virginia and New Hampshire, as well as Ohio and Florida.
Then, to win a narrow victory in the electoral college, Trump must turn at
least one state that went for President Barack Obama in 2012.
Possible candidates include Pennsylvania, where he currently trails Clinton
by between three and nine points in polls released over the past month.
Another possible target is Michigan, where recent polls have Clinton up by
11 points.
Pennsylvania is a must-win for Trump. If Clinton adds just the Keystone
state and Virginia -- home to her running mate, Tim Kaine -- to states
considered solidly Democratic, she will be only 10 electoral votes short of
the presidency. That will happen even if Trump wins perennial bellwethers
Ohio and Florida.
A recent Pennsylvania poll by Monmouth University shows Trump is dangerously
weak in the populous Philadelphia suburbs that are often decisive -- a
position he must address if he is to compete in the state. Clinton leads 62%
to 29% in seven congressional districts around Philadelphia, an area that
typically accounts for 40% of statewide turnout. Obama won the region 62% to
37% over Republican Mitt Romney in 2012.
Trump does better than Romney in less populous and diverse western and
central Pennsylvania -- but not by enough to make up for his deficit around
Philadelphia. He also trails Clinton among white voters with a college
degree by 10 points. Romney won that subset by 15 points in 2012.
Unless Trump can turn those voters around, his hopes in Pennsylvania, and in
key suburban districts in other swing states such as Columbus, Ohio, look
remote.
Alienating moderate Republicans
That's why it surprised many analysts when Trump ditched a plan to soften
the hardline on immigration that alienated many moderate white Republicans.
According to CNN exit polls of the Republican primary in Pennsylvania, only
12% of voters said immigration was the most important issue to them. But 60%
of Trump voters said it was -- suggesting that the billionaire's position
on the issue locks in his base but hurts him among less ideological
Republican voters.
Trump's fiery immigration speech last week suggested he has given up on
broadening his coalition and instead is betting that the pool of voters
marginalized by globalization and the loss of blue-collar jobs is much
larger than pollsters believe.
"This speech is directed at those people living in Ohio, who have thought
for whatever reason that their country is not what it was when they grew up,
" Trump's former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski told CNN after his
immigration speech last week.
Trump supporters are also predicting that Democrats have underestimated the
size of the GOP nominee's support.
Race and racism in the 2016 campaign
"There's a factor in this election that the media is just ignoring and that
is that Hillary Clinton is the most unlikeable person who has ever run for
office. Her support is ten miles wide and a half of an inch thick," said
Wayne Allyn Root, a conservative commentator from Nevada and author of the
recently published "Angry White Male." "I think Hillary Clinton's number of
voters will be down 30% versus Obama's four years ago, and I think Trump's
share of the white electorate will be up dramatically. He'll gain 4 million
extra votes, most of them (from) the white community."
Trump's best bet may be to target the Rust Belt where his anti-trade
rhetoric resonates.
Kathleen Hartnett White, a member of Trump's economic advisory council, says
the billionaire should relentlessly stress growth, expanding energy
production and the slashing of regulations.
"I hope after Labor Day, and I think that is a good day to pivot, that these
should be issues in those Rust Belt states," she said. "I would reiterate
them over and over again."
October surprise
If all else fails, Trump could benefit from an October surprise.
A stunning news event, such as a terror attack at home or abroad, could
prompt some fearful voters to fully embrace Trump's call for curbs on Muslim
immigration and warnings that Clinton just does not understand the scale of
the threats facing Americans.
Why I'm voting for Trump
Or a sudden global crisis, economic shock -- or even a smoking gun
suggesting a hidden Clinton scandal -- could also shake up the race.
Unless he starts making headway soon, with early voting only weeks away, it
may take something that jarring for Trump to win. And it's always possible
that Trump has already sown the seeds of his own defeat simply by alienating
so many voters on the way to the Republican nomination.
"Even if they ran a miracle comeback campaign," Lacy said, "at this point I
honestly don't know if it is starting soon enough." |
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