g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 1 September 9, 2016
The Battleground Poll and Trump's Path to Victory
By Bruce Walker
The GWU Battleground Poll published on September 9 shows Donald Trump a
clear path to victory: win the conservative vote. The data in this poll has
been consistent over the last two decades, and the data in the latest poll
is no different. The overwhelming majority of Americans are self-identified
conservatives.
The September 2016 Battleground Poll shows that 54% of all Americans are
self-identified conservatives and only 38% are self-identified liberals,
which means that if the tiny "moderate" 3% and the equally tiny "unsure/
refused" 4% are excluded, then the conservative candidate would beat the
liberal candidate by a landslide of 58.7% of the vote. If the two groups of
ideologically unclear voters broke even for the two candidates, then the
conservative candidate would win "only" by 57.5% of the vote.
The GWU Battleground Poll looks at the conservative and liberal breakdown of
America nationally. Gallup has actually analyzed the conservative and
liberal breakdown of individual states, and, as in the Battleground Poll,
Gallup has tested this data over and over in many polls over many years.
The results are the same.
In the last Gallup Poll that broke down the ideological split of each of the
fifty states, conservatives outnumbered liberals in every state except
Vermont, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. Consider the huge conservative
advantage in percentage points in those states identified as key for Trump:
Michigan (+11.6), Pennsylvania (+12.3), Arizona (+12.8), Virginia (+13.4),
Florida (+14.0), Wisconsin (+14.4), Ohio (+16.3), Iowa (+17.3), North
Carolina (+19.5)...and so on.
In other words, both of the polling organizations that have polled the
ideological self-identification of Americans for many years concur: if
November comes down to a conservative candidate and a liberal candidate, and
that distinction is clear in the minds of the voters, then the conservative
candidate will win by a landslide the likes of which has not been seen in
presidential politics since Reagan's in 1980 and 1984.
Let's think now...was there anything special about Ronald Reagan in
presidential politics? Well, he was the last presidential candidate to
proudly and openly profess his conservatism. Indeed, right up to Americans
voting in those elections, the leftist establishment sneered that Reagan was
"too old, too dumb, and too conservative."
Would a conservative appeal work in 2016? Consider that polls consistently
show that both major party candidates are personally unpopular, and in the
minds of many voters, neither really stands for much (especially Hillary),
and Americans desperately want change. If Trump is the clear conservative
choice, the only choice that offers change not only from Obama, but from
Bush as well, then he could scoop up those undecided voters and moderate
voters. In that case, Trump could win over 60% of the vote, a landslide
unequaled since FDR beat Landon 80 years ago.
Then consider this fact: Hillary can never, ever call herself "conservative,
" but she never, ever calls herself "liberal." If Trump boldly called
himself the conservative choice in this election, then the best Hillary
could do would be to brush him as an "arch-conservative." Then all Trump
would have to do is what he has been doing lately: speak directly, avoid
hyperbole, and offer concrete proposals. Hillary's refusal to call herself
a liberal will also dishearten voters who already find her a dreadful person
.
Accepting the mantle of conservatism also would allow Trump, who has not run
as a traditional Republican, to tell independent voters (who are
overwhelmingly conservative) that he is just as wary of both major political
parties as they are, but his values are the same as their values. Hillary,
then, would become the establishment candidate of a major political party
ideologically out of sync with ordinary Americans. Throw in the fact than
no sane person trusts her, and Trump could indeed have the recipe for a
landslide.
Does Trump have time for this? Sure he does. Voters are just now really
paying attention, and the debates provide the perfect time to hit, again and
again, the ideological difference between Hillary, the leftist, and Trump,
the conservative. He showed in running for the Republican nomination that
he could attract conservative voters. As a candidate seeking conservatives
disenchanted with the major parties, Trump could do in the general election
what he did in the nomination fight.
Winning this way would also unite the Republican Party behind Trump after
the election and insure that Republicans hold both houses of Congress.
President Trump could then implement an aggressive program of change, which
is, of course, what Americans already know we need. Here, Mr. Trump, is a
clear path to victory.
Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/09/the_battleground_poll_and_trumps_path_to_victory.html#ixzz4Jlu8D1ZT
Follow us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook | i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 2 说过了，2012年大选，因为罗姆尼是魔门教，许多保守派呆在家里不投票。另外，老黑
倾巢而出，加上选举作弊，奥黑险胜几个摇摆州。今年不一样了，老婊子如果没有大规
模作弊，一点戏也没有。 | g********2
发帖数: 6571 | | t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | 4 12年斑马黑人票赢了14M，非黑人票输了9M
【在 i**********k 的大作中提到】
: 说过了，2012年大选，因为罗姆尼是魔门教，许多保守派呆在家里不投票。另外，老黑
: 倾巢而出，加上选举作弊，奥黑险胜几个摇摆州。今年不一样了，老婊子如果没有大规
: 模作弊，一点戏也没有。
| i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 5 看这张图表，就这么赢的。
【在 t*******d 的大作中提到】
: 12年斑马黑人票赢了14M，非黑人票输了9M
| g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 6 这次我们得盯紧点，特别是加州，如果发现有非法移民投了票，就要诉诸法律，让加州
投票作废。 | p**********8
发帖数: 490 | 7 摇摆州和蓝州特别要注意，大家看到作弊情况，马上手机拍下，上网传播，把声势闹大
！不能让猪党作弊得逞！
【在 g********2 的大作中提到】
: 这次我们得盯紧点，特别是加州，如果发现有非法移民投了票，就要诉诸法律，让加州
: 投票作废。
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