a**t
发帖数: 3833 | 1 1. Everything has gone Trump’s way — and he’s still not ahead. If 2012
was all about the 47 percent, this year — at least for Trump — is defined
by the 44 percent. In poll after poll after poll — during the good times
and bad, the most disliked politician in the country can never rise (with a
few outliers) beyond the 38 to 44 percent range among likely voters (he
typically tops out at 42 among registered voters).
2. The cable and TV networks are going to vet Trump like he might actually
be president of the United States. This one is wishful thinking based on
zero evidence. Move along.
3. Trump is getting cocky again. Trump’s steely messaging team has done a
great job duct-taping the boss’s maw since taking over in mid-August. But
Trump’s mouth, like LeBron James, is a cosmic force that can merely be
contained for limited periods, and never truly shut down — and Trump’s
recent success has rekindled the suppressed I-gotta-be-me impulse.
4. Terrified Democrats are Clinton’s secret weapon. This is the big one,
the factor upon which the election truly hinges.
5. Gary Johnson? Really? Very, very few Clinton voters are leeching directly
over to Donald Trump — but a substantial number are visiting the pot-
loving, socially liberal, bean-bag decorated Libertarian halfway house run
by 2016’s chilliest third-party candidate, Gary Johnson. Johnson is a smart
, iconoclastic critic of both candidates who has been making a broad pitch
for Bernie Sanders’ supporters, and it now appears he’s drawing skeptical
former Clinton supporters in substantial enough numbers to affect the race. |
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