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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 1 A Hard Rain is Going to Fall
Victor Davis Hanson
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Posted: Sep 22, 2016 12:01 AM
This summer, President Obama was often golfing. Hillary Clinton and Donald
Trump were promising to let the world be. The end of summer seemed sleepy,
the world relatively calm.
The summer of 1914 in Europe also seemed quiet. But on July 28, Archduke
Franz Ferdinand of Austria was assassinated in Sarajevo by Gavrilo Princip
with help from his accomplices, fellow Serbian separatists. That isolated
act sparked World War I.
In the summer of 1939, most observers thought Adolf Hitler was finally
through with his serial bullying. Appeasement supposedly had satiated his
once enormous territorial appetites. But on Sept. 1, Nazi Germany
unexpectedly invaded Poland and touched off World War II, which consumed
some 60 million lives.
Wars often seem to come out of nowhere, as unlikely events ignite long-
simmering disputes into global conflagrations.
The instigators often are weaker attackers who foolishly assume that more
powerful nations wish peace at any cost, and so will not react to
opportunistic aggression.
Unfortunately, our late-summer calm of 2016 has masked a lot of festering
tensions that are now coming to a head -- largely due to disengagement by a
supposedly tired United States.
In contrast, war, unlike individual states, does not sleep.
Russia has been massing troops on its border with Ukraine. Russian President
Vladimir Putin apparently believes that Europe is in utter disarray and
assumes that President Obama remains most interested in apologizing to
foreigners for the past evils of the United States. Putin is wagering that
no tired Western power could or would stop his reabsorption of Ukraine -- or
the Baltic states next. Who in hip Amsterdam cares what happens to faraway
Kiev?
CARTOONS | Henry Payne
View Cartoon
Iran swapped American hostages for cash. An Iranian missile narrowly missed
a U.S. aircraft carrier not long ago. Iranians hijacked an American boat and
buzzed our warships in the Persian Gulf. There are frequent promises from
Tehran to destroy either Israel, America or both. So much for the peace
dividend of the "Iran deal."
North Korea is more than just delusional. Recent nuclear tests and missile
launches toward Japan suggest that North Korean strongman Kim Jong-un
actually believes that he could win a war -- and thereby gain even larger
concessions from the West and from his Asian neighbors.
Radical Islamists likewise seem emboldened to try more attacks on the
premise that Western nations will hardly respond with overwhelming power.
The past weekend brought pipe bombings in Manhattan and New Jersey as well
as a mass stabbing in a Minnesota mall -- and American frustration.
Europe and the United States have been bewildered by huge numbers of largely
young male migrants from the war-torn Middle East. Political correctness
has paralyzed Western leaders from even articulating the threat, much less
replying to it.
Instead, the American government appears more concerned with shutting down
the detention center at Guantanamo Bay, ensuring that no administration
official utters the words "Islamic terror," and issuing warnings to
Americans not to lash out due to their supposedly innate prejudices.
Aggressors are also encouraged by vast cutbacks in the U.S. defense budget.
The lame-duck Obama presidency, lead-from-behind policies and a culturally
and racially divided America reflect voter weariness with overseas
commitments.
It would be a mistake to assume that war is impossible because it logically
benefits no one, or is outdated in our sophisticated 21st century, or would
be insane in a world of nuclear weapons.
Human nature is unchanging and remains irrational. Evil is eternal.
Unfortunately, appeasement is often seen by thugs not as magnanimity to be
reciprocated but as timidity to be exploited.
Someone soon will have to tell the North Koreans that a stable world order
cannot endure its frequent missile launches and nuclear detonations.
Someone could remind Putin that the former Soviet republics have a right to
self-determination.
Someone might inform the Chinese that no one can plop down artificial
islands and military bases to control commercial sea lanes.
Someone might make it clear to radical Islamic terrorists that there is a
limit to Western patience with their chronic bombing, murdering and
destruction.
The problem is that there is no other "someone" (especially not the United
Nations or the European Union) with the requisite power and authority except
the United States. But for a long time America has done more than its fair
share of international policing -- and its people are tired of costly dragon
-slaying abroad.
The result is that at this late date, the tough medicine of restoring long-
term deterrence is as almost as dangerous as the disease of continual short-
term appeasement.
Obama apparently assumes he can leave office as a peacemaker before his
appeased chickens come home to roost in violent fashion. He has assured us
that the world has never been calmer and quieter.
Others said the same thing in the last calm summer weeks of 1914 and 1939.
War clouds are gathering. A hard rain is soon going to fall.
http://townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2016/09/22/a-hard-rain-is-going-to-fall-n2221725 | s*******n
发帖数: 3488 | 2 怕地震可以搬家啊，把加州的地空出来让中国人来重建好了。放的是什么屁屎报告。 | g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 3 这篇文章有提到“怕地震”吗？你是不是看走眼了？
【在 s*******n 的大作中提到】
: 怕地震可以搬家啊，把加州的地空出来让中国人来重建好了。放的是什么屁屎报告。
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