b***n
发帖数: 13455 | 1 Latest Nevada Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting (which started on 10
/22) of 11/4
2,346 (+185 from 11/3) more registered Republicans have returned an Early
Mail-in-Ballot as of 11/3 (+3.6% Lead same from 3.6% on 11/3 (0.0%})
Voted-by-Mail (Returned)
Rep: 26,992 (+1,320 from 11/3)
DEM: 24,646 (+1,135 from 11/3)
Other (Independents): 12,754 (+757 from 11/3)
Total Returned: 64,392 (+3,212 from 11/3)
#Trump(Rep): 41.9% (-0.1% from 11/3)
#HRC(Dem): 38.3% (-0.1% from 11/3)
Other (Independents): 19.8% (+0.2% from 11/3)
39,170 (+3,882 from 11/3) more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of
11/3 (6.3% Lead same from 6.3% on 11/3 {0.0%})
Early Voting (Only)
Rep: 224,624 (+20,444 from 11/3)
DEM: 263,794 (+24,326 from 11/3)
Other (Independents): 132,143 (+14,898 from 11/3)
Total Voted: 620,510 (+59,617 from 11/3)
#Trump(Rep): 36.2% (-0.2% from 11/3)
#HRC(Dem): 42.5% (-0.2% from 11/3)
Other (Independents): 21.3% (+0.4% from 11/3)
You can track this daily at the following link
(Week 1) http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543
(Week 2) http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted
until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump
votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting
historically, that assumption is used.
The good news is that in Axiom’s poll released the other day (taken 10/30),
74% of Democrats are voting for HRC while 81% of Republicans are voting for
Trump. 14% of Republicans are voting for HRC while 21% of Democrats are
voting for Trump.
Also, No Party Affiliation (Independents) has been breaking for Trump. In
Axiom’s most recent poll on 10/30, Trump has 44% of Independents while HRC
only has 37% of Independents. If we take Axiom poll’s data, the likelihood
of the tallies above would translate as following in the votes mailed and
early voted so far:
R – 203,809 (R voting for Trump) + 60,572 (D voting for Trump) + 63,755 (I
voting for Trump) = 328,136 Total Votes
D – 213,446 (D voting for HRC) + 35,226 (R voting for HRC) + 53,612 (I
voting for HRC) = 302,284 Total Votes
Total Votes for either candidate – 630,420
Total Votes for ALL (which I used to derive the %s below) candidates – 684,
902
Trump = 47.9%
HRC = 44.1%
Margin = 3.8 points (-0.4 points from 11/3)
Note: For the first time my %s above will not equal 100% because I am taking
into account the following factors:
Gary Johnson – R: 4% D: 2% I: 8%
Someone else – R: 0% D: 1% I: 3%
Undecided – R: 1% D: 1% I: 7%
http://20an0w2e66jla4rfm1idisr1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ABC_NV_STATEWIDE-103016.pdf
NV is still looking really good for Trump! | d****i
发帖数: 4354 | | f**********n
发帖数: 29853 | | h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 4 Nobody is worry about NV except those trolls u know why:) | h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 5
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: Nobody is worry about NV except those trolls u know why:)
| K*****2
发帖数: 9308 | |
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