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发帖数: 2053 | 1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-is-at-a-13-year-high-in-
america-143433905.html
On Friday, the latest consumer sentiment numbers from the University of
Michigan released Friday showed that in March confidence rose again, as the
index of consumer sentiment rose to 97.6 from a final reading of 96.3 in
February.
Though just below readings seen in January and February, March’s
preliminary reading indicates consumers haven’t been this consistently
confident since early 2004.
“The overall level of consumer sentiment remained quite favorable in early
March due to renewed strength in current economic conditions as well as the
extraordinary influence of partisanship on economic prospects,” said
Richard Curtin, chief economist for the survey.
“The Current Economic Conditions component reached its highest level since
2000, largely due to improved personal finances.”
Partisanship everywhere
Inside the UMich report, however, there still existed an incredible amount
of partisanship among consumers.
“Among Democrats, the Expectations Index at 55.3 signaled that a deep
recession was imminent,” Curtin said, “while among Republicans the Index
at 122.4 indicated a new era of robust economic growth was ahead.”
Curtin added, “Importantly, there was no moderation in these extreme views
from last month, with the maintenance of the partisan divide fueled by
selective attention to economic news, with Democrats more frequently
reporting unfavorable developments and Republicans more frequently hearing
of favorable changes.”
Optimistic consumers, Curtin noted, are likely to increase their
discretionary spending while those who are pessimistic will pare back.
This is likely to lead to uneven spending gains over time and across
products.
“Overall, the sentiment data has been characterized by rising optimism as
well as by rising uncertainty due to the partisan divide,” Curtin said.
Optimism everywhere
Friday’s consumer sentiment report comes during a week in which measures of
confidence from across the economic spectrum have pointed to American
workers and business leaders remaining bullish on their prospects.
On Thursday, we learned that in January, the number of Americans quitting
their jobs rose to a seasonally-adjusted total of 3.22 million, the highest
number since February 2001. The quits rate rose in January to 2.2%.
People quitting their jobs in droves is seen as a sign of confidence among
workers, as folks are unlikely to quit a job unless they are confident they
can get another one.
Earlier this week, both major U.S. CEOs and American small businesses
indicated that confidence remains elevated.
On Tuesday, the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Index jumped 19.
1 points to 93.3, the biggest jump since the end of 2009. This index
measures expectations for sales, investment, and employment. Like many
economic surveys, any reading over 50 indicates expected economic expansion.
JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon, who is chairman of the Business Roundtable,
said in that release, “I am enthusiastic about the opportunity to enact a
meaningful pro-growth agenda that will benefit all Americans. As these
results confirm, business confidence and optimism have increased
dramatically.”
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon
The National Federation of Independent Business also released its February
reading on small business optimism on Tuesday, which came in at 105.3,
slightly down from January’s 105.9, but still near its best levels in a
decade. A major highlight in this report was a drop in the number of
businesses citing government red tape as their biggest problem.
The NFIB’s report did, however, caution that we haven’t seen a huge
translation from this confidence into action. “Optimism has not faded, but
the enthusiasm has yet to be translated into an equally impressive increase
in spending and hiring,” the NFIB said in its report. “This will require
progress on the agenda that business owners voted for.” |
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