S*******i
发帖数: 2018 | 1 澳大利亚前首相的文章，有些见地。
http://www.wsj.com/articles/an-ally-sizes-up-donald-trump-1531521949
Eighteen months into Donald Trump’s term, the world is having trouble
coming to grips with the most unconventional American president ever. Still,
he is neither a bad dream from which the U.S. will soon wake up, nor a fool
to be ridiculed.
For someone his critics say is a compulsive liar, Mr. Trump has been
remarkably true to his word. Especially compared with his predecessor, he
doesn’t moralize. It’s classic Trump to be openly exasperated by the Group
of 7’s hand-wringing hypocrisy. Unlike almost every other democratic
leader, Mr. Trump doesn’t try to placate critics. He knows it’s more
important to get things done than to be loved.
The holder of the world’s most significant office should always be taken
seriously. Erratic and ill-disciplined though Mr. Trump often seems, there’
s little doubt that he is proving a consequential president. On the evidence
so far, when he says something, he means it—and when he says something
consistently, it will happen.
He said he’d cut taxes and regulation. He did, and the American economy is
at its strongest in at least a decade. He said he’d pull out of the Paris
climate-change agreement and he did, to the usual obloquy but no discernible
environmental damage. He said he’d scrap the Iranian deal, and he did. If
Tehran gets nuclear weapons, at least it won’t be with American connivance.
He said he’d move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, and he did, without
catastrophe. He said he’d boost defense spending. That’s happening too,
and adversaries no longer think that they can cross American red lines with
impunity.
In Mr. Trump’s first year, he acted on 64% of the policy ideas proposed in
the Heritage Foundation’s “Mandate for Leadership” agenda—not bad
compared with Ronald Reagan’s 49%.
It’s a pity that he kept his promise to pull out of the Trans-Pacific
Partnership. But his concerns about that deal shouldn’t be dismissed. In
the short term, freer trade can be better for rich people in poor countries
than for poor people in rich ones.
Mr. Trump thinks that the effect of freer trade has been to make America’s
rivals stronger. But as the Harley-Davidson example shows, global supply
chains mean that even “all-American products” are made all over the world.
The consequence of taxing imports can be losing exports, too, as other
countries retaliate. So far, though, Mr. Trump’s strong rhetoric and tough
action haven’t triggered a full-scale trade war, but have forced other
countries to address America’s concerns about technology theft and
predatory pricing.
Then there’s the nuclear diplomacy with North Korea. Maybe a hitherto
brutal dictator is looking for the survival strategy that Mr. Trump has
offered. On the other hand, it could turn into a latter-day version of the
Iran deal, in which pressure is eased on the basis of promises that are
never fully kept, while leaving allies unsure of American support. That’s
the trouble with one-on-one meetings. They may be good for building trust,
but they’re bad for making decisions, because each participant has his own
version of what was meant.
Still, whatever your judgment on Mr. Trump’s presidency so far, he has 2&#
189; more years in the world’s biggest job and every chance of being re-
elected. He is the reality we have to work with.
For Australia, Mr. Trump has so far been a good president. Despite his testy
initial conversation with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, he has honored
the “very bad deal” that President Obama made to take boat people from
Nauru and Manus Island to settle in the U.S.
Mr. Trump seems to appreciate that Australia is the only ally that has been
with America, side by side, in every conflict since World War I. He has
exempted our steel and aluminum from the tariffs slapped on many others. As
a country that’s paid its dues, so to speak, on the American alliance, we
have been treated with courtesy and respect. Still, that’s no grounds for
complacency in dealing with a transactional president.
As weightier allies found at the NATO summit this week, Mr. Trump is
reluctant to help those who don’t pull their weight, and who can blame him?
America has been the world’s policeman, the guarantor of a modicum of
restraint from the world’s despots and fanatics. No other country has had
both the strength and the goodwill for this essential task.
And America’s thanks for its seven decades of watchfulness and its
prodigious expenditure of blood and treasure? Condescension from the
intellectuals whose freedom the U.S. has protected, and commercial
exploitation by the competitors that the American-led global order has
created. It’s little wonder that Mr. Trump wants trade that’s fair as well
as free, or that he’s tired of allies who give sermons from the sidelines
while America keeps them safe.
The truth is that the rest of the world needs America much more than America
needs us. The U.S. has no threatening neighbors. It’s about as remote from
the globe’s trouble spots as is possible to be. It’s richly endowed with
resources, including energy and an almost boundless agricultural capacity.
Its technology is second to none. Its manufacturing base is vast. Its people
are entrepreneurial in their bones. From diversity, it has built unity and
an enviable pride in country.
In many respects, America is the world in one country, only a better world
than the one outside. If it decided to live in splendid isolation from
troubles across the sea, it would lose little and perhaps gain much, at
least in the beginning. A fortress America would be as impregnable as any
country could be.
Mr. Trump is clearly impatient with the liberal internationalism that has
shaped American policy for 70 years, which he worries has been better for
others than for the U.S. There are two possible versions of the evolving
Trump doctrine. One goes something like this: America may help those who
help themselves, but it will be likelier to help those who help America. The
other, kinder version: They’re your values too, so don’t expect us to be
the only ones fighting for them.
President Obama spoke beautifully about American values but was always
cautious and sometimes slow to stand up for them. On his watch, the rules-
based order was already unraveling. Mr. Trump is much more honest about the
limits of American power. For all Mr. Obama’s high-mindedness on fringe
issues like climate change, Mr. Trump’s America is more robust. It’s
certainly less apologetic and readier to use force. So at least for those
allies that don’t shirk their responsibilities, Mr. Trump’s America should
remain a reliable partner. Just don’t expect too much.
A new age is coming. The legions are going home. American values can be
relied upon but American help less so. This need not presage a darker time,
like Rome’s withdrawal from Britain, but more will be required of the world
’s other free countries. Will they step up? That’s the test.
I was prime minister when Mr. Obama declared at West Point in 2014 that
America could not be the world’s policeman on its own. My response was that
America need never be alone, and that while it would have more important
and occasionally more useful allies, it would never have a more dependable
one than Australia. As prime minister, I wanted to be a welcome contrast to
those White House visitors asking America to do things for them—asking
instead what we could do for America.
When the WikiLeaks spying scandal broke, there was nothing but strong
support from Australia. When Islamic State stormed to the gates of Baghdad,
Australian special forces, military training teams and strike fighters were
there almost as quickly as American ones, because the U.S. should never have
to take on the world’s fight solo.
Being America’s partner, as well as its friend, is even more important now,
given Mr. Trump’s obsession with reciprocity. It may be the only hope of
keeping America engaged in troubles that aren’t already its own.
In my judgment, Australia should have upgraded its Iraq mission to “advise,
assist and accompany” as soon as America did, and extended it into Syria.
Australia should have mounted freedom-of-navigation operations in the South
China Sea. And Australia should have not only welcomed the move of the U.S.
Embassy to Jerusalem but moved ours, too.
The rise of China means that Australia can no longer take for granted a
benign strategic environment. For the first extended period in my country’s
settled existence, the strongest power in our part of the world is unlikely
to share our values. We can no longer be sure that a friendly nation will
be the first to respond to a new challenge to peace, stability and decency
in our region.
I fear there will have to be a much greater focus on strategic deterrence,
especially if a rogue state like North Korea has long-range nuclear weapons
—and especially if the American nuclear shield becomes less reliable.
My government increased Australia’s defense spending from a historical low
of 1.6% of gross domestic product to 2%. I made the commitment to continuous
construction of major surface ships and began the process of acquiring new
submarines.
To its credit, the Turnbull government has continued this work. But I fear
that dramatically increased military spending in our region overall—up 60%
in the past decade—means that rather more now needs to be done. Can
Australia’s ships be expected to operate without the air cover that an
overstretched America may no longer provide? Can we afford to wait at least
15 years before the first of the next generation of submarines becomes
operational? Does it really make sense for Australia to take a French
nuclear submarine and redesign it for conventional power, making it less
potent than it currently is?
My instinct is that acquiring a capacity to strike harder and further, while
giving our country and our armed forces greater protection, could soon
require military spending well beyond 2% of GDP. Our armed forces need to be
more capable of operating independently against even a substantial
adversary, because that is what a truly sovereign nation must be prepared to
do.
America spends more than 3% of the world’s biggest GDP on its armed forces,
and the rest of the Western world scarcely breaks 2%. It’s hard to dispute
Mr. Trump’s view that most of us have been keeping safe on the cheap. The
U.S. can’t be expected to fight harder for Australia than we are prepared
to fight for ourselves. What Mr. Trump is making clear—to us and to others
—is what should always have been screamingly obvious: that each nation’s
safety now rests in its own hands far more than in anyone else’s. | T**********o
发帖数: 10 | 2 政论够长，却言之有物，完全没有政治正确，赞转发。
Still,
fool
Group
【在 S*******i 的大作中提到】
: 澳大利亚前首相的文章，有些见地。
: http://www.wsj.com/articles/an-ally-sizes-up-donald-trump-1531521949
: Eighteen months into Donald Trump’s term, the world is having trouble
: coming to grips with the most unconventional American president ever. Still,
: he is neither a bad dream from which the U.S. will soon wake up, nor a fool
: to be ridiculed.
: For someone his critics say is a compulsive liar, Mr. Trump has been
: remarkably true to his word. Especially compared with his predecessor, he
: doesn’t moralize. It’s classic Trump to be openly exasperated by the Group
: of 7’s hand-wringing hypocrisy. Unlike almost every other democratic
| y******9
发帖数: 606 | 3 我以为wall street journal 是左派报纸的啊，不是？ | i*****9
发帖数: 3157 | 4 Wall Street journal 只是鼓吹全球化而已，没那么多意识形态的事
：我以为wall street journal 是左派报纸的啊，不是？ | b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 5 " In many respects, America is the world in one country, only a better world
than the one outside."
非常赞同这句。 | y******9
发帖数: 606 | | s*******7
发帖数: 1302 | 7 这马屁拍得震天响.
美国花费超过3%的GDP在军费上是为了全球的dominance.
你澳大利亚和欧洲花费超过3%是为了什么? 只是为了帮助美国军火商赚钱吧.
难道澳大利亚和欧洲还要跟美国抢全球dominance不成?
如果澳大利亚开始在日本驻军, 美国不会觉得霸权被藐视了?
Still,
fool
Group
【在 S*******i 的大作中提到】
: 澳大利亚前首相的文章，有些见地。
: http://www.wsj.com/articles/an-ally-sizes-up-donald-trump-1531521949
: Eighteen months into Donald Trump’s term, the world is having trouble
: coming to grips with the most unconventional American president ever. Still,
: he is neither a bad dream from which the U.S. will soon wake up, nor a fool
: to be ridiculed.
: For someone his critics say is a compulsive liar, Mr. Trump has been
: remarkably true to his word. Especially compared with his predecessor, he
: doesn’t moralize. It’s classic Trump to be openly exasperated by the Group
: of 7’s hand-wringing hypocrisy. Unlike almost every other democratic
| F*****6
发帖数: 114 | 8 你没读文章。
他说澳大利亚军费一直是1.6%直到前几年他当政才增加到2%。为的就是为了防止土共的
威胁。
【在 s*******7 的大作中提到】
: 这马屁拍得震天响.
: 美国花费超过3%的GDP在军费上是为了全球的dominance.
: 你澳大利亚和欧洲花费超过3%是为了什么? 只是为了帮助美国军火商赚钱吧.
: 难道澳大利亚和欧洲还要跟美国抢全球dominance不成?
: 如果澳大利亚开始在日本驻军, 美国不会觉得霸权被藐视了?
:
: Still,
: fool
: Group
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