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发帖数: 22479 | 1 英国《金融时报》 罗格•布里茨 报道
人民币贬值对许多亚洲国家的货币来说是一个新的风险，后者此前没有像相当大一部分
新兴市场货币那样下跌。
最近几周，韩元、台币和新加坡元等新兴市场货币走势疲弱，这标志着今年以来各种货
币对美元汇率疲软的格局翻开新篇章。
美元强势一直是2018年新兴市场货币疲软的主要推动因素，阿根廷、土耳其和南非等国
家由于经常账户赤字而特别脆弱。相比之下，那些经常账户盈余的新兴市场国家此前受
到了庇护。
百达(Pictet)经济学家帕特里克•兹韦费尔(Patrick Zweifel)表示，亚洲货币面
临压力，并非因为新兴市场的传染效应，而是因为“贸易紧张，对中国的敞口，以及人
民币贬值”。
对于投资者而言，货币疲弱局面的最新转变似乎表明，出现波及面更广的市场和经济压
力的风险正在上升。上周晚些时候，美国总统宣布准备对中国出口至美国的全部5000亿
美元产品征收关税，同时他还抨击强势美元以及美联储(Fed)维持收紧利率政策的意图。
贸易紧张的升级将使中国的区域贸易伙伴遭受巨大损失。其中包括澳大利亚，如今澳元
相对于美元的表现似乎严重依赖人民币的走势。
这意味着，就货币稳定而言，许多亚洲货币实际上受中国人民银行(PBoC)政策制定者的
影响。
欧洲资产管理公司Amundi外汇业务副总裁James Kwok表示，“考虑到中国在亚洲地区的
经济分量，人民币作为亚洲各国货币的支柱，正在影响着它们的走势。”
例如，如果韩元要以基本不受影响的方式挺过即将爆发的贸易紧张，那将取决于中国人
民银行能否遏制人民币汇率的下行压力。
投资者关注中国人民银行允许人民币贬值的程度。自今年6月初以来，人民币对美元汇
率下跌超过5%。
人民币兑美元已突破1美元兑6.8元人民币的关口，这是一年来最低的水平，反映增长放
缓和信贷收紧的影响。这进而导致铜、铅、镍和锌等工业金属价格大幅下挫，打击了投
资者对全球矿业股的情绪。
尽管中国外汇监管机构表示将采取措施确保人民币汇率保持稳定，但人民币仍出现最新
一轮贬值。
正如法国兴业银行(Société Générale)的基特•朱克斯(Kit Juckes)所说的
那样：“对于（中国）当局允许人民币进一步走低的担忧，将影响整个亚洲货币区。”
人民币疲软给亚洲各经济体带来的后果是显而易见的。美银美林(Bank of America
Merrill Lynch)指出，人民币走低使得中国进口商的购买力下降，支撑了有关2018年余
下时间内“地区出口增长可能会减弱”的论点。
效仿、跟随人民币相对于美元的弱势、或与这种弱势形成关联的亚洲货币越来越多。牛
津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)的宏观策略师戈拉夫•萨罗利亚(Gaurav
Saroliya)表示，近期的汇率走势表明，韩元、台币和新加坡元与人民币“步调一致”。
萨罗利亚表示，“宏观联系绝对是至关重要的。他们与中国的命运紧密交织在一起。”
据法国兴业银行的朱克斯表示，加入这份清单的还有澳元、新西兰元、马来西亚林吉特
、印尼卢比、甚至日元。
朱克斯称，在所有情况下，“中国都是他们市场的重要组成部分”。萨罗利亚表示，以
日本为例，全球贸易下滑将使其遭受很大损失。他称，“日本比美国更依赖全球贸易。”
亚洲各国央行面临的问题是如何应对人民币持续走软的时期。他们不会忽略的一个因素
是，人民币不仅在相对于美元走低，而且相对于其他亚洲货币也在贬值。
中国外汇交易中心(CFETS)用一篮子货币来衡量人民币汇率，而亚洲货币所占比重为41%
。自6月初以来，CFETS人民币汇率指数下跌了3%。
这一下跌的背景是CFETS人民币汇率指数从较高的基数回落。在截至今年6月的12个月里
，该指数上涨逾5%。但亚洲各国央行会发现，很难承受人民币对其本币进一步走低。
蒙特利尔银行(Bank of Montreal)货币策略师斯蒂芬•加罗(Stephen Gallo)表示
，“如果你的出口商要与中国竞争，这对他们不利。”
亚洲各国央行的选项之一是效仿中国央行，后者已开始恢复货币宽松姿态以抵消贸易紧
张的影响，或者干预外汇市场。
加罗表示，除非贸易紧张局面得到解决，否则“（亚洲各国央行）几乎没有可能在2019
上半年之前采取加息措施”。随着美国下定决心推进保护主义，很多事情将取决于中国
如何应对。
译者/何黎
以下为此文英文原文：Renminbi weakness represents a new risk for Asian
currencies
By Roger Blitz
China’s weakening renminbi represents a new risk for a number of Asian
currencies that had managed to escape much of the recent rout in emerging
markets until now.
The Korean won, the Taiwanese dollar and the Singapore dollar are among the
vulnerable parts of EM in recent weeks, representing a new chapter in this
year’s currency weakness versus the US dollar.
The dollar’s strength has been the main driver of the 2018 EM weakness with
the likes of Argentina, Turkey and South Africa particularly vulnerable
given their current account deficits. In contrast, those EM countries with
surpluses were sheltered.
Patrick Zweifel, economist at Pictet, said Asian currencies were under
strain not because of an EM contagion effect at play but because of “trade
tensions and exposure to China and a weak renminbi”.
For investors, the latest shift in currency weakness suggests the risk of
broader market and economic stress is rising. Late last week, the US
president declared he was ready to impose tariffs on all $500bn of Chinese
imports, while he attacked a stronger dollar and the Federal Reserve’s
intent to keep tightening interest rate policy.
China’s regional trading partners have much to lose from trade tensions
escalating. That includes Australia, whose currency’s performance against
the dollar now appears to be heavily reliant on how the renminbi moves.
It means that many Asian currencies are in effect beholden to China’s
policymakers at the People’s Bank of China for currency stability.
“Being an anchor of the Asian currencies due to its economic weight in the
region, the Chinese renminbi is directing the path of Asian currencies,”
said James Kwok, deputy head of FX at the European asset manager Amundi.
If, for example, the Korean won is to steer a passage through the upcoming
squalls of trade tensions with minimal disruption, it is dependent on the
PBoC managing to contain the forces threatening to drive its renminbi lower.
Investors are focused on the extent to which the PBoC will allow the
renminbi to fall. Against the US dollar, the renminbi has fallen more than 5
per cent since the start of June.
China’s currency has topped the Rmb6.8 per dollar mark, its weakest level
in a year, reflecting slower growth and tighter credit. In turn, industrial
metals prices such as copper, lead, nickel and zinc have fallen sharply,
knocking sentiment in shares for global miners.
The latest renminbi shake-out came in spite of remarks by China’s foreign
exchange regulator that it would take steps to ensure the currency stayed
stable.
As Kit Juckes at Société Générale said: “Concerns about the [Chinese]
authorities allowing further currency weakness will affect the whole Asian
currency area.”
The consequences of a weaker renminbi on Asian economies are apparent. As
Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed out, a weaker renminbi reduces the
purchasing power for Chinese importers, adding to the argument that “
regional export growth could weaken” over the rest of 2018.
The list of Asian currencies aping, tracking or correlating with the
renminbi’s weakness against the US dollar is growing. Recent currency moves
show how the Korean won and the currencies of Taiwan and Singapore are in
“lockstep” with their Chinese counterpart, said Gaurav Saroliya, macro
strategist at Oxford Economics.
“The macro linkages are absolutely critical. They are so intertwined with
the fortunes of China,” Mr Saroliya said.
Added to that list, according to Mr Juckes, is the Australian dollar, the
New Zealand dollar, the Malaysian ringgit, the Indonesian rupiah and even
Japan’s yen.
In all cases, “China is a big part of their market”, Mr Juckes said. In
Japan’s case, said Mr Saroliya, it has a lot to lose from a decline in
global trade. “Japan is more anchored to global trade than the US,” he
said.
The question for Asian central banks is how to respond to a sustained period
of further renminbi weakness. One factor that won’t be lost on them is how
China’s currency is weakening, not just against the US dollar but against
other Asian currencies.
The China Foreign Exchange Trade System measures the renminbi against a
basket of currencies, and Asian currencies make up 41 per cent of that
basket. Since the start of June, the CFETS index has fallen 3 per cent.
The context of this fall is that the CFETS index is coming off a high base.
It had risen more than 5 per cent in the 12 months to June. But Asian
central banks will find it difficult to stomach further renminbi weakness
against their currencies.
“If you have exporters competing with China, this is bad for them,” said
Stephen Gallo, currency strategist at Bank of Montreal.
Among the options for Asian central banks are to copy the PBoC, which has
been reverting to monetary easing to stem the impact of trade tensions or
intervene in the forex market.
Until or unless trade tensions are resolved, “there is little chance of [
Asian central banks] moving on rates until the first half of 2019”, Mr
Gallo said. With the US determined to press on with protectionism, much
hinges on how China responds. |
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