s**********u
发帖数: 2749 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: sgrastar (人马座A星), 信区: Military
标 题: CNBC：疮破再打贸易战会丢掉6个关键州
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Sep 7 14:51:02 2018, 美东)
伊利诺伊，印第安纳，密苏里，宾西法你啊，田纳西和德克萨斯。
Trump risks midterm voter backlash for GOP if he expands China trade war, as
tariffs are unpopular in six key states
President Donald Trump is considering even more tariffs on Chinese goods in
an expanding trade conflict.
It's a politically risky move, as voters in six key midterm states have not
gotten behind the trade barriers.
Republicans are trying to stop Democrats from flipping enough seats to take
a House majority.
Jacob Pramuk | @jacobpramuk
Published 1 Hour Ago Updated 45 Mins Ago
CNBC.com
President Donald Trump
Win McNamee | Getty Images
President Donald Trump
President Donald Trump may not want to make November's midterm elections a
referendum on tariffs.
Trump is deciding whether to slap duties on another $200 billion in Chinese
goods after a public comment period ended at midnight Thursday. He raised
the stakes again Friday, saying he has tariffs "ready to go" on an
additional $267 billion in Chinese products.
The actions would expand mounting trade conflicts with major partners that
have prompted backlash from Republican lawmakers and sparked fears about
slower growth and damage to American farmers. China, the European Union,
Mexico and Canada have retaliated againstTrump's previous trade barriers.
Beijing already said it would respond in kind to any new U.S. tariffs.
A series of NBC News/Marist polls of six politically important states
released in recent weeks highlight the potential political peril Trump faces
if the trade war with China affects a larger swath of the economy.
Pluralities of registered voters in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri,
Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Texas believe tariffs will damage the U.S.
economy.
The numbers listed below show the proportion who believe tariffs will "
protect American jobs and help the U.S. economy," followed by those who
think they will "raise the costs of consumer goods and hurt the U.S. economy
," then those who say the actions will not have much of an effect.
Illinois: 24 percent/43 percent/20 percent (-19)
Indiana: 29 percent/41 percent/19 percent (-12)
Missouri: 28 percent/44 percent/14 percent (-16)
Pennsylvania: 28 percent/46 percent/14 percent (-18)
Tennessee: 28 percent/41 percent/17 percent (-13)
Texas: 33 percent/40 percent/15 percent (-7)
A spreading trade conflict could have ripple effects as Republicans try to
defend their House and Senate majorities. Pennsylvania and Texas both hold
important Senate races as well as a handful of battleground House contests
with mostly Republicans defending seats.
Voters in Indiana, Missouri and Tennessee will decide on three of this year'
s most competitive Senate races, in which Democrats try to hold off GOP
challengers. Meanwhile, a few Republican incumbents will also try to keep
their seats in Illinois, a major farm state.
While NBC and Marist polled those six states in recent weeks, tariffs also
could affect important races in farm states such as North Dakota and Montana.
Trump's tariff policy has added challenges for GOP candidates as the party
faces a difficult path toward keeping its House majority. Strong headline
economic numbers have helped Republicans, but the economy alone may not be
enough for the GOP to overcome increased enthusiasm among Democratic voters.
Likewise, several prominent conservative leaders and groups, including the
influential Koch brothers' donor network, have criticized the tariffs.
"We urge the administration not to lose sight of the farmers, manufacturers,
and small businesses across the country who are getting crushed by this
misguided trade war," said Tim Phillips, a top Koch network official. "
Imposing steep tariffs and bailing out select industries with government
subsidies isn't how you punish China; it's how you become China."
The antipathy toward Trump's tariffs partly explains why the GOP has brought
tax reform to the forefront in recent days with plans to vote on a proposal
to make individual tax cuts approved as part of last year's Republican tax
law permanent. The plan appears at least partly designed to put pressure on
Democrats after the party contended the GOP plan did too much to help the
wealthy and corporations.
Tax reform has polled relatively poorly and not given the GOP the messaging
boost that it had hoped when the party passed the legislation in December. | G*******h
发帖数: 4091 | | s**********u
发帖数: 2749 | 3 CNBC也外包给廊坊器人了
【在 G*******h 的大作中提到】
: 伊利诺伊啥时候归Trump了？
| A******e
发帖数: 655 | 4 就算CNBC的民调不掺假，数也不是这么算的。
llinois: 44 percent 不反对 /43 percent 反对
Indiana: 48 percent 不反对 /41 percent 反对
Missouri: 42 percent 不反对 /44 percent
Pennsylvania: 42 percent 不反对 /46 percent 反对
Tennessee: 43 percent 不反对 /41 percent 反对
Texas: 45 percent 不反对 /40 percent 反对
当然，这是CNBC，民调误差至少+-5 percent， 反对 +5 percent，不反对-5 percent
， 所以校正后的数据：
llinois: 49 percent 不反对 /38 percent 反对
Indiana: 53 percent 不反对 /36 percent 反对
Missouri: 47 percent 不反对 /39 percent
Pennsylvania: 47 percent 不反对 /41 percent 反对
Tennessee: 48 percent 不反对 /36 percent 反对
Texas: 50 percent 不反对 /35 percent 反对
考虑到CNBC调查对象所引入的样本误差，至少 +- 10%。反对的 +10 percent， 不反对
的 -10 percent，
所以校正后的数据：
llinois: 59 percent 不反对 /28 percent 反对
Indiana: 63 percent 不反对 /26 percent 反对
Missouri: 57 percent 不反对 /29 percent
Pennsylvania: 57 percent 不反对 /31 percent 反对
Tennessee: 58 percent 不反对 /26 percent 反对
Texas: 60 percent 不反对 /25 percent 反对
应该的结论：
贸易战只对摇摆州选情有好处，没坏处 |
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