a*********a
发帖数: 3656 | 1 Just found this. early days in Wuhan:
number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days.
the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6.
time from initial exposure to symptom onset is 4.2 days with a 95%
confidence interval (CI) between 3.5 and 5.1 days
Before January 18, the time from symptom onset to hospitalization was 5.5
days (CI:4.6 to 6.6 days);
whereas after January 18, the duration shortened significantly to 1.5 days
only (CI:1.2 to 1.9 days)
the date of the beginning of an exponential growth is December 20,2019(CI:
December 11 to 26).
The growth rate of the outbreak is estimated to be 0.29 per day(CI:0.21 to 0
.37 per day),
estimated total infected population size in Wuhan was approximately 4,100(CI
:2,423 to 6,178) on January18, .The estimated number of infected individuals
is 18,700(CI:7,147,38,663) on January 23.
After lock down of Wuhan:
growth rate decreasing from 0.29 per day to 0.14 per day translates to a R0
between 2.3 to 3.0
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2002/2002.03268.pdf | a*********a
发帖数: 3656 | 2 the growth rate estimate seems to match Italy's experience, since end of Feb
, the case number in Italy increases 20-25% each day.
this is extremely disturbing. at this late time, the growth rate in Italy
matches that of Wuhan before Jan 18. I now understand why they did a Wuhan
style to a whole province.
.
【在 a*********a 的大作中提到】
: Just found this. early days in Wuhan:
: number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days.
: the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6.
: time from initial exposure to symptom onset is 4.2 days with a 95%
: confidence interval (CI) between 3.5 and 5.1 days
: Before January 18, the time from symptom onset to hospitalization was 5.5
: days (CI:4.6 to 6.6 days);
: whereas after January 18, the duration shortened significantly to 1.5 days
: only (CI:1.2 to 1.9 days)
: the date of the beginning of an exponential growth is December 20,2019(CI:
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