d*******y
发帖数: 2710 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: dragonfly (小蜻蜓-一品御前带刀老中医), 信区: Military
标 题: 从Stanford大学结果推算，美国已痊愈新冠病例660万-1320万
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Apr 18 14:08:28 2020, 美东)
按照这个比例
美国已痊愈新冠病例660万-1320万
真实死亡率正好0.5%。
Santa Clara County一个县就80000阳性。
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/santa-clara-covid-19-antibody-study-suggests
-broad-asymptomatic-spread.html | d*******y
发帖数: 2710 | | D********r
发帖数: 135 | 3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
直接看文章，不要看报道。下面的comment里面都在质疑结果，从sample选择，
到数据分析。最直接的质疑是：
the specificity of the test is "99.5% (95 CI 98.3-99.9%)". This means that
theoretically, if the specificity was 98.5%, all of the 50 positive results
could be false positives, and nobody in the sample would have had any Covid-
19. This means the result is not statistically significant even if the
sample had been well chosen (which it wasn't). (It's not even significant at
the 90% level.)
抗体检测本来是设计给高危人群的，现在用于广谱筛选，一点点假阳性就会
出很大问题。
suggests
【在 d*******y 的大作中提到】
: 而且这些人没吃什么药，基本是自愈。
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