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发帖数: 29576 | 1 http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6891686-Biden-Path-to-270-5-15.html
Biden has multiple paths to get the 38 additional Electoral College votes
necessary to get elected President. The most likely scenarios to get to 270
are:
1. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona: Biden wins all three states
– his best option, given the current political environment. By winning
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, he would be elected with 279 electoral
votes.
2. Michigan and Pennsylvania + 2 congressional districts (NE-02 and ME-02):&
#8203; Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, along with the second
congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine (states that apportion votes
based on congressional districts) to get to 270. Nebraska’s second
congressional district is currently rated a tossup by Cook’s Political
Report. In 2018, Democrats picked up Maine’s second congressional district,
the governor’s office, and took control of the state legislature. Cook
currently has Maine’s second congressional seat going to Trump.
3. The Rust Belt: Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin,
giving him 278 electoral votes.
4. Michigan and the Sunbelt: Biden carries Michigan, Arizona, and
North Carolina and ends up with 274 electoral votes.
5. Florida +1: Biden carries Florida, getting him to 261 electoral
votes, and a win in any of the other battleground states would put him well
past 270.
With these options in mind, the Biden campaign’s best strategy to knock off
Trump would be to:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Make putting Michigan out of reach for Trump the top priority
Lock up Pennsylvania Prioritize winning Arizona, Maine 02 and Nebraska 02
Focus remaining resources on Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida. |
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