c**********o
发帖数: 1941 | 1 Lichtma 8月份的预测，6 True， 7 false， 有点太早， 那时是Trump不能连任
现在根据同样的逻辑，看起来连任的概率大一点，LOL
The 13 Keys to the Presidency
Following are the 13 Keys and Lichtman’s assessment of how they turn:
1. After the midterm election, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U
.S. House of Representatives than it did after the preceding midterm
election. (FALSE)
2. The incumbent-party nominee gets at least two-thirds of the vote on the
first ballot at the nominating convention. (TRUE)
3. The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)
4. There is no third-party or independent candidacy that wins at least 5% of
the vote. (TRUE)
5. The economy is not in recession during the campaign. (Half True)
6. Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals
or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. (Half True)
7. The administration achieves a major policy change during the term, on the
order of the New Deal or the first-term Reagan “revolution.” (TRUE)
8. There has been no major social unrest during the term, sufficient to
cause deep concerns about the unraveling of society. (FALSE)
9. There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches the
president. (True)
10. There has been no military or foreign policy failure during the term,
substantial enough that it appears to undermine America’s national
interests significantly or threaten its standing in the world. (TRUE)
11. There has been a military or foreign policy success during the term
substantial enough to advance America’s national interests or improve its
standing in the world. (HALF TRUE)
12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero. (
Half True)
13. The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero. (TRUE) | s******x
发帖数: 1 | 2 Lichtma 的预测模型，还是非常可靠的。不信的人等着被 Lichtma 打脸。 |
|
