S*******o
发帖数: 71 | |
c**********o
发帖数: 1941 | 2 说实话，没戏了， 都是mail-in， Trump最后小输
铁锈带估计都会反转 |
S*******o
发帖数: 71 | 3 感觉没有 mail-in 就赢了啊。就是个 turn out 的问题，
邮寄选票白等躺赢。
【在 c**********o 的大作中提到】
: 说实话，没戏了， 都是mail-in， Trump最后小输
: 铁锈带估计都会反转
|
m**u
发帖数: 6829 | 4 宾州能赢，还剩1.4m,领先近70万。按7：3的党派比例，也不会翻蓝。WI和MI是完蛋了
。关键是输了AZ，要是NV扳不回来，就直接输了。 |
c**********o
发帖数: 1941 | 5 AZ 还没死透， NV玄乎
Trump这次大概率小败
【在 m**u 的大作中提到】
: 宾州能赢，还剩1.4m,领先近70万。按7：3的党派比例，也不会翻蓝。WI和MI是完蛋了
: 。关键是输了AZ，要是NV扳不回来，就直接输了。
|
S*******i
发帖数: 2018 | 6 每个州所有ballots的总数在开票前难道不知道？
【在 S*******o 的大作中提到】
: 感觉没有 mail-in 就赢了啊。就是个 turn out 的问题，
: 邮寄选票白等躺赢。
|
s**w
发帖数: 499 | 7 Betting odds have shifted dramatically in Biden's favour in the past few
hours and now give him a 77% chance of winning compared to 23% for Trump.
PredictIt has it 79-30 for Biden, with its usual wide spread.
Markets have shifted in the same way. The Mexican peso erased all the
overnight losses, stock futures are higher, the dollar gave back gains and
gold is flat again.
On the ground, Arizona looks like Biden has it and with that he only needs
Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. Georgia and Pennsylvania are other options
but Biden doesn't need them.
Michigan
Trump's lead has evaporated in the past two hours and that's why the odds
have shifted. Biden is now leading 49.2% to 49.1% The remaining vote is
largely urban and mail-in, which has been tilting heavily towards Biden and
should add to his lead.
Wisconsin
Biden has pulled ahead 49.5%-48.8% in Wisconsin with 97% of the estimated
votes counted. The remainder are mail-in and urban which should add to the
lead.
Nevada
Biden is up 49.3% to 48.7% but it's a small state and that's only 86% of the
vote. Democrats are optimistic but Clark county (Las Vegas) mail-in votes
are still to come and those should add to Biden's lead.
Georgia
Trump leads 50.5%-48.3% here but betting markets show a dead head. That's
because only 92% of the votes have been counted and the remainder are mail-
in and in Atlanta; both of which are likely to be heavily Democrat.
Pennsylvania
Trump is up 55.1-43.6%. That looks like a huge lead but only 75% of the
votes have been counted and the remainder is urban and mail-in. Biden needs
to win those by a huge margin but so far he has been. |
T*********0
发帖数: 131 | 8 2020 vs. 2016, except Florida, where did Trump gain?
It is a general shift, similar to what Trump did to Hillary 4 years ago.
people are voting their minds.
【在 m**u 的大作中提到】
: 宾州能赢，还剩1.4m,领先近70万。按7：3的党派比例，也不会翻蓝。WI和MI是完蛋了
: 。关键是输了AZ，要是NV扳不回来，就直接输了。
|
h*****7
发帖数: 3192 | 9 2-30万邮寄选票没有寄到，共和党用这种方式压制选票
【在 T*********0 的大作中提到】
: 2020 vs. 2016, except Florida, where did Trump gain?
: It is a general shift, similar to what Trump did to Hillary 4 years ago.
: people are voting their minds.
|
P****i
发帖数: 1362 | 10 270:268
一票争夺历史上有过吗
【在 c**********o 的大作中提到】
: AZ 还没死透， NV玄乎
: Trump这次大概率小败
|
f*********r
发帖数: 242 | 11 今年是庚子年。
各种历史上的第一次都发生了。
再多一个不稀奇。
【在 P****i 的大作中提到】
: 270:268
: 一票争夺历史上有过吗
|
