r******i
发帖数: 1445 | 1 "I think we need to start shifting our thinking of eradication and disease
elimination of covid anytime soon, to more disease management, the way we
think about flu."
-Carlos Del Rio, infectious disease expert.
https://youtu.be/-sQsIETW47Q?t=2800 | F********r
发帖数: 878 | 2 that's fine, if we can beat it down to a real flu. Or say it in a better
way, if we can minimize the deaths before it evolves to something comparable
to a real flu, not the "big flu". | r******i
发帖数: 1445 | 3 For someone vaccinated with covid vaccine, I estimate the death rate of
covid is ~0.05%, which is comparable to a seasonal flu.
CDC said 99.99% of vaccinated people will not be in trouble (hospitalized)
with covid, a bit more optimistic than my estimate.
comparable
【在 F********r 的大作中提到】
: that's fine, if we can beat it down to a real flu. Or say it in a better
: way, if we can minimize the deaths before it evolves to something comparable
: to a real flu, not the "big flu".
| F********r
发帖数: 878 | 4 but don't forget, this number is achieved with the help of vaccines, socisl
distancing, masks, school closure, and lockdowns. We laready had 461,649
covid deaths the last 365 days, with all those things mentioned above. CDC'
s estimated total death from common flu the last ten years combined is only
359,000, with far less vaccinated rate and no social distancing, mask,
school closure, or lockdown at all.
【在 r******i 的大作中提到】
: For someone vaccinated with covid vaccine, I estimate the death rate of
: covid is ~0.05%, which is comparable to a seasonal flu.
: CDC said 99.99% of vaccinated people will not be in trouble (hospitalized)
: with covid, a bit more optimistic than my estimate.
:
: comparable
| r******i
发帖数: 1445 | 5 The flu killed less people in the past ten years, because flu is not "novel"
. Many people that would die from flu have already died from it.
When most of the people that WOULD die from covid have died, you will find
its mortality just about the same as flu as we know it. The more lockdowns
that you do, the longer this process will take place.
socisl
CDC'
only
【在 F********r 的大作中提到】
: but don't forget, this number is achieved with the help of vaccines, socisl
: distancing, masks, school closure, and lockdowns. We laready had 461,649
: covid deaths the last 365 days, with all those things mentioned above. CDC'
: s estimated total death from common flu the last ten years combined is only
: 359,000, with far less vaccinated rate and no social distancing, mask,
: school closure, or lockdown at all.
| F********r
发帖数: 878 | 6 That's only one of the reasons. Doctors are better or at least more
experienced at treating patients, also the virus itself can evolve and
become weaker. Many patients in Wuhan died due to the lack of knowledge or
experience. The weaker ones killed in Wuhan have nothing to do with other
part of China where there are abundant of weak people who are protected by
all these means. If left alone, there would be millions or tens of millions
of deaths in China. To me and most others, this is not acceptable. Don't
forget that those millions of people might include your and my parents and
grandparents.
novel"
【在 r******i 的大作中提到】
: The flu killed less people in the past ten years, because flu is not "novel"
: . Many people that would die from flu have already died from it.
: When most of the people that WOULD die from covid have died, you will find
: its mortality just about the same as flu as we know it. The more lockdowns
: that you do, the longer this process will take place.
:
: socisl
: CDC'
: only
| r******i
发帖数: 1445 | 7 I'm an American. I don't care about how many people dies from a disease in
China.
I agree with you that doctors are better at treating patients now. Will they
be EVEN better a year from now? Maybe, but highly doubtful. I don't think
the mortality will change significantly a year from now.
So people should really calculate the risk for themselves and decide what to
do, at least from now. Take the vaccine if you are worried about the
disease, or don't if you are worried about the vaccine but willing to take
the risk of the disease.
Everyone in US will be exposed to covid very soon (2-3 years) and everyone
that WOULD die from it (with their own choice of vaccination) MUST die.
or
millions
t
【在 F********r 的大作中提到】
: That's only one of the reasons. Doctors are better or at least more
: experienced at treating patients, also the virus itself can evolve and
: become weaker. Many patients in Wuhan died due to the lack of knowledge or
: experience. The weaker ones killed in Wuhan have nothing to do with other
: part of China where there are abundant of weak people who are protected by
: all these means. If left alone, there would be millions or tens of millions
: of deaths in China. To me and most others, this is not acceptable. Don't
: forget that those millions of people might include your and my parents and
: grandparents.
:
| F********r
发帖数: 878 | 8 >>I'm an American. I don't care about how many people dies from a disease in
China.
--I am a Chinese American. I care about America, and I also care about
China.
>>I agree with you that doctors are better at treating patients now. Will
they be EVEN better a year from now? Maybe, but highly doubtful. I don't
think the mortality will change significantly a year from now.
--Don't know, but I am hoping the case fatality will be further reduced to
the level of common flu. It's still at the early stage, I want to wait a
little more before drawing a conclusion.
>>So people should really calculate the risk for themselves and decide what
to do, at least from now. Take the vaccine if you are worried about the
disease, or don't if you are worried about the vaccine but willing to take
the risk of the disease.
--Yes, I was vaccinated as soon as I was eligible. My parents and my wife
all and asap. My kids not eligible yet. However, when driving, I don't
rely on only one thing to keep safe, whether it is seatbelt, speed limit,
airbag or something else. They all work together. Similarly in this
situation, we need to do all these.
We might end up all getting infected sometime in the next several years, but
time might, and have, make a difference. At the end of last spring, the
case fatality rate in many European countries were over 10%, one higher than
20%. If I were living there, I prefer to get infected now than then. The
end of last June or May, the case fatality rate in the US was 6-7%. It was
not too long time ago, so who knows what it will be in another year? | r******i
发帖数: 1445 | 9 "I am hoping the case fatality will be further reduced to the level of
common flu."
When you are vaccinated, the risk (IFR, not CFR) of covid once infected is
already similar to common flu.
What's different is the chance of getting infected... You are not guaranteed
to catch a flu in the next 2 years, but almost guaranteed to catch covid in
the next 2 years. Your (or anyone, really) chance of getting covid is
probably 2-5 times higher than catching flu.
You can do whatever you want to reduce your risk. That's always my point.
However, given all the information that I have, I myself will do all normal
activities such as going to restaurants, put my kids to school, visit
friends, etc. Many Americans is choosing to do so as well.
in
【在 F********r 的大作中提到】
: >>I'm an American. I don't care about how many people dies from a disease in
: China.
: --I am a Chinese American. I care about America, and I also care about
: China.
: >>I agree with you that doctors are better at treating patients now. Will
: they be EVEN better a year from now? Maybe, but highly doubtful. I don't
: think the mortality will change significantly a year from now.
: --Don't know, but I am hoping the case fatality will be further reduced to
: the level of common flu. It's still at the early stage, I want to wait a
: little more before drawing a conclusion.
| F********r
发帖数: 878 | 10 >>When you are vaccinated, the risk (IFR, not CFR) of covid once infected is
already similar to common flu.
--Again, not just me. I am sure those 620+k Americans would agree with me,
but they are not important any more, right?
>>Your (or anyone, really) chance of getting covid is probably 2-5 times
higher than catching flu.
--Exactly. That's why we need to be more careful about covid than common
flu.
>>You can do whatever you want to reduce your risk. That's always my point.
--Only with the condition that you are not causing harm, or reasonably
potential harm, to your community. With a highly contagious disease, you
should not be allowed to go to the mass. If I have black death, I should
not be allowed to go out.
>>However, given all the information that I have, I myself will do all
normal activities such as going to restaurants, put my kids to school, visit
friends, etc. Many Americans is choosing to do so as well.
--I am doing these too, with mask. | r******i
发帖数: 1445 | 11 >>However, given all the information that I have, I myself will do all
normal activities such as going to restaurants, put my kids to school, visit
friends, etc. Many Americans is choosing to do so as well.
--I am doing these too, with mask.
I don't visit my friends with mask, and they don't either.
--Only with the condition that you are not causing harm, or reasonably
potential harm, to your community. With a highly contagious disease, you
should not be allowed to go to the mass. If I have black death, I should
not be allowed to go out.
If I'm tested positive for covid, I will self-quarantine. Otherwise, I go
about my life normally.
>>When you are vaccinated, the risk (IFR, not CFR) of covid once infected is
already similar to common flu.
EVERYONE THAT WOULD DIE FROM COVID MUST DIEEEEE! | F********r
发帖数: 878 | 12 >>>If I'm tested positive for covid, I will self-quarantine. Otherwise, I go
about my life normally.
---That's why we are the number one now. When did you get the test? A week
ago, two? You might have get infected in between that time and now. I
know it's tough and it's impossible to keep testing every day. However,
there is a simply and effective way, mask. | r******i
发帖数: 1445 | 13 So what?
EVERYONE WILL BE EXPOSED TO COVID.
EVERYONE THAT WOULD DIE FROM COVID MUST DIE!
go
week
【在 F********r 的大作中提到】
: >>>If I'm tested positive for covid, I will self-quarantine. Otherwise, I go
: about my life normally.
: ---That's why we are the number one now. When did you get the test? A week
: ago, two? You might have get infected in between that time and now. I
: know it's tough and it's impossible to keep testing every day. However,
: there is a simply and effective way, mask.
| F********r
发帖数: 878 | 14 >>>EVERYONE THAT WOULD DIE FROM COVID MUST DIE!
That's our fundamental difference.
Say an innocent pedestrian is killed by DUI, do you think s/he belongs to
the group of "EVERYONE THAT WOULD DIE FROM auto accidents MUST DIE"? Can
you say that it is part of his fault? He has seen news about DUI all the
time, and he should know his risk but still decides to go out. So he SHOULD
die?
【在 r******i 的大作中提到】
: So what?
: EVERYONE WILL BE EXPOSED TO COVID.
: EVERYONE THAT WOULD DIE FROM COVID MUST DIE!
:
: go
: week
| r******i
发帖数: 1445 | 15 DUI is a crime.
Going to visit a friend without masks is NOT a crime.
Refusing to take a vaccine is NOT a crime.
SHOULD
【在 F********r 的大作中提到】
: >>>EVERYONE THAT WOULD DIE FROM COVID MUST DIE!
: That's our fundamental difference.
: Say an innocent pedestrian is killed by DUI, do you think s/he belongs to
: the group of "EVERYONE THAT WOULD DIE FROM auto accidents MUST DIE"? Can
: you say that it is part of his fault? He has seen news about DUI all the
: time, and he should know his risk but still decides to go out. So he SHOULD
: die?
| F********r
发帖数: 878 | 16 OK. How about driving when tired or sleepy?
【在 r******i 的大作中提到】
: DUI is a crime.
: Going to visit a friend without masks is NOT a crime.
: Refusing to take a vaccine is NOT a crime.
:
: SHOULD
| r******i
发帖数: 1445 | 17 If someone is killed by a driver tired or sleepy, the dead person have to
die, as long as driving tired or sleepy is not a crime.
【在 F********r 的大作中提到】
: OK. How about driving when tired or sleepy?
| F********r
发帖数: 878 | 18 There are laws now to prevent truckers from driving with fatigue, it's just
similar to mandating mask. After all, chance of dying from others' driving
with fatigue is way lower than dying from covid.
【在 r******i 的大作中提到】
: If someone is killed by a driver tired or sleepy, the dead person have to
: die, as long as driving tired or sleepy is not a crime.
| r******i
发帖数: 1445 | 19 Truck drivers are commercial drivers, similar to plane pilots, train
engineers. I'm OK that there are laws to regulate their working hours.
Similarly I'm OK that certain areas, such as the hospitals, there is mask
mandate.
I'm not against schools mandating masks either. After all, schools can
mandate dress codes.
However, if I a friend visit my house, it's up to us whether or not we wear
masks.
just
driving
【在 F********r 的大作中提到】
: There are laws now to prevent truckers from driving with fatigue, it's just
: similar to mandating mask. After all, chance of dying from others' driving
: with fatigue is way lower than dying from covid.
| F********r
发帖数: 878 | 20 Of course. In your private house, you are free. I am never so far fetched
to suggest mask mandate in private residence. I am for mask mandate in
public space, though private properties like Disneyland or arenas should be
included too.
wear
【在 r******i 的大作中提到】
: Truck drivers are commercial drivers, similar to plane pilots, train
: engineers. I'm OK that there are laws to regulate their working hours.
: Similarly I'm OK that certain areas, such as the hospitals, there is mask
: mandate.
: I'm not against schools mandating masks either. After all, schools can
: mandate dress codes.
: However, if I a friend visit my house, it's up to us whether or not we wear
: masks.
:
: just
| r******i
发帖数: 1445 | 21 I guess it's possible to make laws to ask business to mandate masks.
Sure. But I'm not in favor of it.
Personally, I will NOT visit Disneyland if they mandate masks. It's just not
fun. And why would I go to an amusement park without having fun?
I'd rather having a party with my friends at home then.
fetched
be
【在 F********r 的大作中提到】
: Of course. In your private house, you are free. I am never so far fetched
: to suggest mask mandate in private residence. I am for mask mandate in
: public space, though private properties like Disneyland or arenas should be
: included too.
:
: wear
|
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