n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 1 Even if the growth outlook is not as strong as b/4, its PE now is only 14,
the lowest in the sector, and has healthy financial data.
However, it is hit biggest. Is there any specific reason?
BTW, given the outlook from FSLR, CSIQ,and Q-cell, I doubt TSL will give a
good ER. Time to buy some put? | s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 2 Dude, I've listed all the facts in one of my post about FSLR. You'd better
really analyze the underlying earning power instead of just looking at a PE
number given by, say, Yahoo finance. If you only like straight-forward
numbers, FSLR's trailing price-to-sales ratio is almost 6, more than triple
of all its peers.
FSLR's 12-months trailing PE is indeed low, but its capacity expansion (and
therefore revenue growth) can not catch up with the margin decline. FSLR is
indeed monster strong on
its bal
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: Even if the growth outlook is not as strong as b/4, its PE now is only 14,
: the lowest in the sector, and has healthy financial data.
: However, it is hit biggest. Is there any specific reason?
: BTW, given the outlook from FSLR, CSIQ,and Q-cell, I doubt TSL will give a
: good ER. Time to buy some put?
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 3 these facts are not new, right? since er, it has been down 20%. traders don'
t need 5 day to react and dump if we assume the market is somewhat efficient.
i'm just surprised it's underperformed so much among the sector and want to
find out any potential additional issue. someone points out consumption of
ge reaches limit. if so, it's a valid point.
PE
triple
and
is
their
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: Dude, I've listed all the facts in one of my post about FSLR. You'd better
: really analyze the underlying earning power instead of just looking at a PE
: number given by, say, Yahoo finance. If you only like straight-forward
: numbers, FSLR's trailing price-to-sales ratio is almost 6, more than triple
: of all its peers.
: FSLR's 12-months trailing PE is indeed low, but its capacity expansion (and
: therefore revenue growth) can not catch up with the margin decline. FSLR is
: indeed monster strong on
: its bal
| s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 4 Te consumption is likely a valid point, but it is not a news either.
Actually I really didn't find any news from their ER, and I couldn't find
any reason that it was trading around $125 before ER either.
Market is far from efficient as you know, and wall street is short-sighted.
My explanation is that more and more analysts and traders start to do
homework and become down-to-earth for 2011 earnings after concluding 2009,
and FSLR moves towards where it should be.
don'
efficient.
to
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: these facts are not new, right? since er, it has been down 20%. traders don'
: t need 5 day to react and dump if we assume the market is somewhat efficient.
: i'm just surprised it's underperformed so much among the sector and want to
: find out any potential additional issue. someone points out consumption of
: ge reaches limit. if so, it's a valid point.
:
: PE
: triple
: and
: is
| s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 5 I'm neutrel on TSL's ER.
Q4 was certainly a stellar quarter, and gross margin may top 30%. But this
gross margin is not sustainable. Q4 or Q1 will mark the peak gross margin
for TSL, but TSL's PE will be about 9 if you use Q3-2009 -- Q1-2010 numbers,
and its production growth has some chance to offset margin decline
afterwards, so I'm feeling comfortable holding some TSL at this level.
I don't think TSL is a bargain to buy either. The only significantly
undervalued solar stock in my view in Sunp
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: Even if the growth outlook is not as strong as b/4, its PE now is only 14,
: the lowest in the sector, and has healthy financial data.
: However, it is hit biggest. Is there any specific reason?
: BTW, given the outlook from FSLR, CSIQ,and Q-cell, I doubt TSL will give a
: good ER. Time to buy some put?
| b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 6 I suspect there is sth particularly wrong with SPWRB and we just don't know.
Its chart is probabably the weakest among the peers. How come it is so weak.
numbers,
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: I'm neutrel on TSL's ER.
: Q4 was certainly a stellar quarter, and gross margin may top 30%. But this
: gross margin is not sustainable. Q4 or Q1 will mark the peak gross margin
: for TSL, but TSL's PE will be about 9 if you use Q3-2009 -- Q1-2010 numbers,
: and its production growth has some chance to offset margin decline
: afterwards, so I'm feeling comfortable holding some TSL at this level.
: I don't think TSL is a bargain to buy either. The only significantly
: undervalued solar stock in my view in Sunp
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 7 i think nowadays it's all about outlook, and the sector has been bashed a
lot recently. so it's really hard.
fslr's pre-er run is not suprising. solar stocks often do this. i'm just
sorry i mis-read its er date and didn't lock profit by cutting half of my
position on it.
can you elaborate ur view on spwra. i don't think the scandal should make
such big discount either.
numbers,
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: I'm neutrel on TSL's ER.
: Q4 was certainly a stellar quarter, and gross margin may top 30%. But this
: gross margin is not sustainable. Q4 or Q1 will mark the peak gross margin
: for TSL, but TSL's PE will be about 9 if you use Q3-2009 -- Q1-2010 numbers,
: and its production growth has some chance to offset margin decline
: afterwards, so I'm feeling comfortable holding some TSL at this level.
: I don't think TSL is a bargain to buy either. The only significantly
: undervalued solar stock in my view in Sunp
| s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 8 78 cents non-silicon cost! Holy cow!
TSL managed to cut another 4 cents in non-silicon cost, well on track of
their 70 cents goal by YE2010, which I didn't fully believe. I was thinking
that they'd have to take a break on the 82 cents level.
I was so excited that I added more shares, at close to $24, now under water.
I might be too impatient...
But I think it's not a bad idea for those of you with no solar exposure
picking up TSL at this level. It has very limited downside.
numbers,
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: I'm neutrel on TSL's ER.
: Q4 was certainly a stellar quarter, and gross margin may top 30%. But this
: gross margin is not sustainable. Q4 or Q1 will mark the peak gross margin
: for TSL, but TSL's PE will be about 9 if you use Q3-2009 -- Q1-2010 numbers,
: and its production growth has some chance to offset margin decline
: afterwards, so I'm feeling comfortable holding some TSL at this level.
: I don't think TSL is a bargain to buy either. The only significantly
: undervalued solar stock in my view in Sunp
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 9 the volume is not low. a typical "sell-on-news"?
a good company doesn't necessarily mean a good stock for trade. it's
interesting to see stp up.
thinking
water.
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: 78 cents non-silicon cost! Holy cow!
: TSL managed to cut another 4 cents in non-silicon cost, well on track of
: their 70 cents goal by YE2010, which I didn't fully believe. I was thinking
: that they'd have to take a break on the 82 cents level.
: I was so excited that I added more shares, at close to $24, now under water.
: I might be too impatient...
: But I think it's not a bad idea for those of you with no solar exposure
: picking up TSL at this level. It has very limited downside.
:
: numbers,
| b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 10 hehe, well said.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: the volume is not low. a typical "sell-on-news"?
: a good company doesn't necessarily mean a good stock for trade. it's
: interesting to see stp up.
:
: thinking
: water.
| | | n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 11 traders obviously have big fight on fslr. today's volume is also very high
so far while the price is not broken yet.
gods fighting, human watching, lol.
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: hehe, well said.
| L****a
发帖数: 572 | 12 how much is their silicon cost per watt ?
thinking
water.
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: 78 cents non-silicon cost! Holy cow!
: TSL managed to cut another 4 cents in non-silicon cost, well on track of
: their 70 cents goal by YE2010, which I didn't fully believe. I was thinking
: that they'd have to take a break on the 82 cents level.
: I was so excited that I added more shares, at close to $24, now under water.
: I might be too impatient...
: But I think it's not a bad idea for those of you with no solar exposure
: picking up TSL at this level. It has very limited downside.
:
: numbers,
| s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 13 46c
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: how much is their silicon cost per watt ?
:
: thinking
: water.
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 14 NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - China-based Trina Solar Ltd (TSL.N) reported
higher-than-expected fourth quarter profit on Wednesday but its forecast for
narrower margins knocked its shares down 7 percent.
today's volume is huge. bearish. my tan loaded today under water too.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: traders obviously have big fight on fslr. today's volume is also very high
: so far while the price is not broken yet.
: gods fighting, human watching, lol.
| s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 15 I thought about this Q1 weird margin guidance of 26-28% before I loaded the
shares. I don't understand how their margin can decline 5% Q/Q, given that
their poly cost will decline by 10-15% in Q1/Q4.
I assume they are just being conservative and just like to play beat/raise
games. Their Q4 guidance was also 25-27% versus 32.6% announced today, and
in all fairness they already had the visibility of Q4 to make better
forecast in last ER in mid-Nov. So I believe they're just doing the same
thing. T
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - China-based Trina Solar Ltd (TSL.N) reported
: higher-than-expected fourth quarter profit on Wednesday but its forecast for
: narrower margins knocked its shares down 7 percent.
: today's volume is huge. bearish. my tan loaded today under water too.
|
|
