L****a
发帖数: 572 | 1 LDK is a company hugely burdened by its unbelievable amount of short-term
and long-term debts, as well as its excessive inventory.
During 2009 1Q, its inventory level almost equals to its total book value.
This is absolutely unusual in semiconductor companies. For instance, MEMC, a
wafer and poly silicon producer, has inventory level only 5% of its total
book value at 2009 1Q.
Currently, the average price of LDK's inventory (mainly poly silicon
material) is at about $100/Kg. But the market spot | L****a
发帖数: 572 | 2 http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090702/us_ldk_solar_outlook.html?.v=1
LDK Solar outlook falls below Wall Street view
SUNNYVALE, Calif. (AP) -- LDK Solar Co., which makes wafers used in solar
cells, said Thursday its second-quarter wafer shipments will top an earlier
forecast, but sales will come in below Wall Street's expectations.
For the quarter that ended June 30, LDK Solar said it expects to ship 220
megawatts to 230 megawatts of wafers. That's more than the 200 megawatts to
220 megawatts previously | L****a
发帖数: 572 | 3 发信人: Laputa (以德糊人), 信区: immortalclub
标 题: LDK and SOL's strength is not bad
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jul 7 12:29:26 2009, 美东)
LDK and SOL now look stronger than other downstream players.
The strength of LDK and SOL shows that people tend to believe the solar
upstream business is recovering after a steep plunge of polysillicon price.
Some recent reports also show that polysilicon price in China is stabilizing
(at $70). But I think it does not mean LDK and SOL are good long target.
BTW: still holding L | L****a
发帖数: 572 | 4 LDK Solar Updates Outlook for the Second Quarter of 2009
XINYU CITY, China and SUNNYVALE, Calif., July 23 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ --
LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK - News), a leading manufacturer of
multicrystalline solar wafers, today provided an updated outlook for its
second quarter 2009 financial results. For the second quarter of 2009, LDK
Solar expects to report between $225 million and $235 million in revenue,
slightly above the recently announced estimated range, and wafer shipments
betwe | L****a
发帖数: 572 | 5 发信人: Laputa (以德糊人), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: LDK huge write down again
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jul 23 17:44:25 2009, 美东)
This actually shows, even after write-down. The loss will be still
30M to 40M. Converting to EPS is -$0.3/share to -$0.4/share, far worse
than analysts' estimate of -$0.16/share. I am confused by LDK's after
hour price. It does not move, and even up a bit. | L****a
发帖数: 572 | 6 发信人: Laputa (以德糊人), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: LDK huge write down again
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jul 23 17:58:04 2009, 美东)
I think the reason is market now anticipate that's the last
write-down of LDK. I think it's correct. But I think the market
price is wrong again.
It's likely that tomorrow LDK will go up, because the write-down news
is finally out. Everyone knows they are gonna have big write-down, so
the news have been absorbed by LDK's recent weakness.
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: 发信人: Laputa (以德糊人), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: Re: LDK huge write down again
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jul 23 17:44:25 2009, 美东)
: This actually shows, even after write-down. The loss will be still
: 30M to 40M. Converting to EPS is -$0.3/share to -$0.4/share, far worse
: than analysts' estimate of -$0.16/share. I am confused by LDK's after
: hour price. It does not move, and even up a bit.
| L****a
发帖数: 572 | 7 LDK Solar Reports Financial Results for Second Quarter 2009
Second quarter 2009 revenue was $228.3 million; analysts forecast $236
million. EPS -$2.03, analysts forecast -$0.91. Gross margin -90% due to
write-down.
3rd Q outlook : revenue $240 million to $270 million, analysts forecast $
290M. | s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 8 How do you like SOL's ER today?
They disappointed on the top line, but roughly beat the bottom line, which
shows impressive cost control. They provided upside guidance on Q3, and
their balance sheet looks reasonably sound to me. It looks like they are
turning around.
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: LDK Solar Reports Financial Results for Second Quarter 2009
: Second quarter 2009 revenue was $228.3 million; analysts forecast $236
: million. EPS -$2.03, analysts forecast -$0.91. Gross margin -90% due to
: write-down.
: 3rd Q outlook : revenue $240 million to $270 million, analysts forecast $
: 290M.
| b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 9 I agree with what you said in Stock, hehe.
This is a stock nobody in pennystock would bother to look at.
It stinks.
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: LDK Solar Reports Financial Results for Second Quarter 2009
: Second quarter 2009 revenue was $228.3 million; analysts forecast $236
: million. EPS -$2.03, analysts forecast -$0.91. Gross margin -90% due to
: write-down.
: 3rd Q outlook : revenue $240 million to $270 million, analysts forecast $
: 290M.
| L****a
发帖数: 572 | 10 Looks better than LDK. But thier beat of estimate is achieved by one-time
profit.
Without that, the loss should be larger than $0.06 EPS, which is the
estimate
of analysts.
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: How do you like SOL's ER today?
: They disappointed on the top line, but roughly beat the bottom line, which
: shows impressive cost control. They provided upside guidance on Q3, and
: their balance sheet looks reasonably sound to me. It looks like they are
: turning around.
| | | s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 11 Oh, I missed the recorded gain on convertible bond repurchase. Then it
should be -$0.12 EPS. No wonder it was falling instead of rising yesterday.
I used to like LDK, but their balance sheet deteriorates very fast during
the recent quarters under their die-hard aggressive management, and their
non-silicon cost structure doesn't seem to be lower than SOL as I thought.
This ER's numbers are just pathetic.
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: Looks better than LDK. But thier beat of estimate is achieved by one-time
: profit.
: Without that, the loss should be larger than $0.06 EPS, which is the
: estimate
: of analysts.
| L****a
发帖数: 572 | 12 Q-Cells SE Terminates Agreement with LDK Solar Co., Ltd.
7:02am EST
Q-Cells AG announced that it has terminated the agreement concluded in
December 2007 with LDK Solar Co., Ltd. for the supply of solar wafers.
According to Q-Cells AG, LDK Solar Co., Ltd. did not fulfill significant
contractual obligations. | L****a
发帖数: 572 | 13 The reason of the termination could be that LDK has recently started its own
solar cell production. According to their previous contracts, LDK should
not produce solar cells, because it's also a wafer maker.
Remember, Q-cell is the largest customer of LDK.
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: Q-Cells SE Terminates Agreement with LDK Solar Co., Ltd.
: 7:02am EST
: Q-Cells AG announced that it has terminated the agreement concluded in
: December 2007 with LDK Solar Co., Ltd. for the supply of solar wafers.
: According to Q-Cells AG, LDK Solar Co., Ltd. did not fulfill significant
: contractual obligations.
| s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 14 Sigh, I should have shorted it in mid term to hedge my risky SOL.
I almost did that following its very ugly ER in Aug, but I was just afraid
of short squeeze which can happen from time to time in LDK. You managed to
hold the short position for months and never had to cover because of no
share to borrow?
Also a question, how did you know that they had terms in contracts that LDK
shouldn't produce solar cells? I don't think they disclosed this kind of
information. Just guess?
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: Q-Cells SE Terminates Agreement with LDK Solar Co., Ltd.
: 7:02am EST
: Q-Cells AG announced that it has terminated the agreement concluded in
: December 2007 with LDK Solar Co., Ltd. for the supply of solar wafers.
: According to Q-Cells AG, LDK Solar Co., Ltd. did not fulfill significant
: contractual obligations.
| L****a
发帖数: 572 | 15 I managed to hold short positions because I have longs to hedge.
Otherwise, I would have been already killed by LDK's relentless short
squeeze. My long also ended up in very good profit (some of them are
Brazil stocks), so I was not killed by LDK short squeeze. It's not
the problem of share borrowing.
I know the contract thing because it was written in LDK's 10-K. But I didn't
find it by my own but saw some posts in yahoo message board, it linked to
LDK's 10-K.
LDK
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: Sigh, I should have shorted it in mid term to hedge my risky SOL.
: I almost did that following its very ugly ER in Aug, but I was just afraid
: of short squeeze which can happen from time to time in LDK. You managed to
: hold the short position for months and never had to cover because of no
: share to borrow?
: Also a question, how did you know that they had terms in contracts that LDK
: shouldn't produce solar cells? I don't think they disclosed this kind of
: information. Just guess?
| rh
发帖数: 3901 | | L****a
发帖数: 572 | 17 本着认真负责的态度, 给你们 update 一下 LDK啊. 众所周知, LDK 这个
Q 取得了赢利, 这确实是非常 surprising 的. 很多分析师也都没有
预料到. 这里要指出几点:
1. LDK 的 20% gross margin 部分得益于 loss provision reversal.
就是说上季度的多晶硅 write down 太多了, 这个季度把给它 write up
一下. underlying gross margin 大概是 16%. 这个 gross margin 仍然
是非常惊人的. 要知道, 从多晶硅到最终产品, 他的 gross margin 也就
只能做到 20%. 这里主要可能是LDK 的长期协议起了作用. 这个长期协议
价格能不能维持是个 question mark, 因为 wafer 的价格仍然在下跌.
而最近Q-cell 的事情, 说明Q-cell 已经修改了协议了, 取得了更低的价格.
2. 这个季度 solar demand 出现了井喷式的增长. 但这里要指出的是,
这个增长主要来自于德国. 因为德国很可能要在明年减少 subsid | L****a
发帖数: 572 | 18 NEW YORK, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Chinese solar company LDK Solar (LDK.N) said on
Thursday it planned to raise capital and was considering selling assets as
it faced a cash crunch that threatened its ability to survive, sending its
shares down 8 percent.
The company said VMS Investment Group Ltd and its affiliates had agreed to
buy $50 million to $80 million in convertible preference shares of a new
subsidiary that will hold its polysilicon business, which it plans to
restructure.
"If we do not succe | L****a
发帖数: 572 | 19 quick update :
1. gross margin 10%. (strange last qt, it's 20%, it suddently goes
to 10% this qt ?)
2. still massive short-term debt. short-term debt still close to
$1B. But some of the shor-term debt has been transformed to long-term. So
now interest cost becomes signficantly larger. Last qt. interet cost is $10M
, this qt is $14M. Due to the long-term debt
transformation, cash level has been greatly boosted. I think they
are gonna use those cash to further boost wafer capacity and
module produ | L****a
发帖数: 572 | 20 TAIPEI -(Dow Jones)- Taiwan's Mosel Vitelic Inc. (2342.TW), a solar cell and
contract chip maker, terminated Thursday the purchase of silicon wafers
from China's LDK Solar Co. (LDK: 6.7617, 0.0917, 1.37%) and is seeking US$46
million in damages and compensation from LDK for contract violation.
Mosel signed a five-year contract with LDK in 2007 to supply silicon wafers,
Mosel Vice President C.S. Jou said Friday, adding the contract included a
clause allowing the parties to renegotiate wafer price | | | L****a
发帖数: 572 | 21 Now I realize why LDK's gross margin last Q was only 10% : because
they renegotiated with cell makers, and some cell makers got lower
price. Yes, I mentioned in my past post that they need to
renegotiate. But I myself almost forgot, damn.
and
46
wafers,
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: TAIPEI -(Dow Jones)- Taiwan's Mosel Vitelic Inc. (2342.TW), a solar cell and
: contract chip maker, terminated Thursday the purchase of silicon wafers
: from China's LDK Solar Co. (LDK: 6.7617, 0.0917, 1.37%) and is seeking US$46
: million in damages and compensation from LDK for contract violation.
: Mosel signed a five-year contract with LDK in 2007 to supply silicon wafers,
: Mosel Vice President C.S. Jou said Friday, adding the contract included a
: clause allowing the parties to renegotiate wafer price
| L****a
发帖数: 572 | 22 here it is :
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: Now I realize why LDK's gross margin last Q was only 10% : because
: they renegotiated with cell makers, and some cell makers got lower
: price. Yes, I mentioned in my past post that they need to
: renegotiate. But I myself almost forgot, damn.
:
: and
: 46
: wafers,
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 23 price not change much?
and
46
wafers,
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: TAIPEI -(Dow Jones)- Taiwan's Mosel Vitelic Inc. (2342.TW), a solar cell and
: contract chip maker, terminated Thursday the purchase of silicon wafers
: from China's LDK Solar Co. (LDK: 6.7617, 0.0917, 1.37%) and is seeking US$46
: million in damages and compensation from LDK for contract violation.
: Mosel signed a five-year contract with LDK in 2007 to supply silicon wafers,
: Mosel Vice President C.S. Jou said Friday, adding the contract included a
: clause allowing the parties to renegotiate wafer price
| L****a
发帖数: 572 | 24 The fish may be too small
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: price not change much?
:
: and
: 46
: wafers,
| s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 25 Honestly LDK is not expensive now. Eventually it is trading around book
value and is reasonably discounting the disappointing poly plant now.
With the strong wafer market its downside seems limited.
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: The fish may be too small
| L****a
发帖数: 572 | 26 I agree with you that it's no that expensive. I have closed up all my LDK
short positions
this morning. I will leave solar for a while, but may come back later.
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: Honestly LDK is not expensive now. Eventually it is trading around book
: value and is reasonably discounting the disappointing poly plant now.
: With the strong wafer market its downside seems limited.
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 27 ldk flying now. what happened?
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: I agree with you that it's no that expensive. I have closed up all my LDK
: short positions
: this morning. I will leave solar for a while, but may come back later.
| L****a
发帖数: 572 | 28 flying with otehr solars. Also wafer price is climbing. LDK's current
valuation is not so big, so people think it's cheap. I am lucky to
have escaped before short sqeeze.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: ldk flying now. what happened?
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 29 no, others are down today.
for poly, wfr down too.
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: flying with otehr solars. Also wafer price is climbing. LDK's current
: valuation is not so big, so people think it's cheap. I am lucky to
: have escaped before short sqeeze.
| L****a
发帖数: 572 | 30 SOL,SOLF were up today. For others, they were
up yesterday.
I think the main point is that peole "think"
it's cheap.
WFR is a bit different. WFR has poly and wafer
business. For poly and wafers, WFR has both
electronic-grade and solar-grade. It's more
diversed.
LDK and SOL's current focus is on Wafer, which
looks like a sweet spot recently. That's why
GCL-poly wanted to expand into wafer business.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: no, others are down today.
: for poly, wfr down too.
| | | L****a
发帖数: 572 | 31 Analyst Upgrades LDK, Raises Price Targets on ReneSola, MEMC (LDK, SOL, WFR)
Apr 12, 2010 02:51PM
Barclays' Vishal Shah made changes to several solar stocks in his firm's
coverage universe today, including an upgrade from Underweight to
Equalweight on shares of LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK). Elsewhere in the sector, the
analyst raised his price target on ReneSola (NYSE: SOL) from $7 to $9 and
his target on MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) from $15 to $16. Shah
maintained Equalweight ratings on bo | n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 32 难怪。
WFR)
the
wafer
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: Analyst Upgrades LDK, Raises Price Targets on ReneSola, MEMC (LDK, SOL, WFR)
: Apr 12, 2010 02:51PM
: Barclays' Vishal Shah made changes to several solar stocks in his firm's
: coverage universe today, including an upgrade from Underweight to
: Equalweight on shares of LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK). Elsewhere in the sector, the
: analyst raised his price target on ReneSola (NYSE: SOL) from $7 to $9 and
: his target on MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) from $15 to $16. Shah
: maintained Equalweight ratings on bo
|
|
