n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: maldini (驹), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 湾区房价预计
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 23 18:07:17 2009, 美东)
抛块砖头在这里，希望斑竹mark,两年最多三年以后可以看看我说的是否正确：基本上
说来，湾区和
全国房价不同步，现在湾区小阳春，而全国大多数地方仍在下降；而全国房市稳定之时
，就是湾区房
价开始下降之日。
现在政府拯救房市主要有两大策略，一个是8000的tax credit，另一个是低利率，8000
块钱对湾
区的房子来讲是杯水车薪，而且很多人都不qualify,所以只看这个低利率。
实际上利率低影响了大多数人的购房策略，因为很多人都是看月付，只要比较
comfortable就可以
买。现在湾区房市主要是两个价位比较吸引新购房者，一个是40万至60万，一个是80万
至100万，前
者适合单职工，后者适合双职工，都是属于在现今的利率下紧紧巴巴将就能供下来。但
是如果全国房
价趋向平稳，利率肯定要增长，因为通货膨胀也好，防止另一个泡沫也好，结果呢就是
原来50万的房
子单职工负担不起了，就需要降到一个让单职工比较舒服的价格，月付和低利率时相近。
下面一段文字是关于利率/房价关系的解说：
It's a terrible time to buy when interest rates are low, like now.
Realtors just lie without shame about this fundamental fact. Prices fall
as interest rates rise, because a fixed monthly payment covers a smaller
mortgage at a higher interest rate. Since interest rates have nowhere to
go but up, prices have nowhere to go but down. The way to win the game
is to have cash on hand to buy outright at a low price when others
cannot borrow very much because of high interest rates. To buy at a time
of very low interest rates is a mistake.
It is definitely far better to pay a low price with a high interest rate
than a high price with a low interest rate, even if the mortgage payment
is the same either way.
First of all, your property taxes will be lower with a low purchase
price.
Second, a low price gives you the ability to pay it all off instead of
being a debt-slave forever.
Third, prices will definitely fall as interest rates rise -- so paying a
high price now may trap you "under water", meaning you'll have a
mortgage larger than the value of the house. Then you will not be able
to refinance, and won't be able to sell without a loss. Even if you get
a long-term fixed rate mortgage, when rates inevitably go up the value
of your property will go down. Paying a low price minimizes this
possibility. |
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