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发帖数: 2314 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: goldenrain (金雨), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 这个四年一调整的观点很新颖。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Aug 10 03:16:05 2007)
The stock market's 4-year cyclical low has been put off for an entire year
by the explosion of liquidity/credit. Now the chickens are coming home to
roost. One of the most reliable cycles in U.S. markets is the 4-year cycle:
about every 4 years, the stock market hits a low. It has been remarkably
consistent: 1982, 1987 (OK, 5 years), 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002--so the low was
"scheduled" for 2006.
In 1986, Mr. Market missed its appointment; but that simply set up the
October 1987 "appointment" which resulted in a 22% drop in a single day. Now
the U.S. stock market has blown right past this 2006 "appointment"--but the
appointment wasn't cancelled, it was simply re-scheduled for the future.
That future is now: |
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