w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: walstudio (午夜未眠人), 信区: Stock
标 题: 科普一下吧, 看大家都Clueless一样
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Mar 16 20:24:15 2011, 美东)
The Day The Yen Carry Trade Died
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/16/2011 17:59 -0400
While everyone is staring in disbelief at the USDJPY, the real carry action
is in the high yielding-YEN pairs, i.e., the development, high growing
countries. And it's a massacre: ZARJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY - all are plunging
far more than the USD. This is nothing short of a complete carry trade
unwind. The implications: the cheapest recurring source of funding for risk
assets - the Yen carry trade, is over. Those who managed to sell early on
are lucky.
The rest will get such an onslaught of margin calls tomorrow they may need
to access the discount window (if Primary Dealers and the luckier banks).
Many will be forced to sell assets to satisfy collateral requirements as
ongoing sales of carry pairs push the Yen ever higher, and force ever more
liquidity out of the market. And if the Yen carry trade is done, the
question is when will the USD, which has also been a carry currency for some
time, follow suit. And, once again, the most troubling observation is that
the BOJ has not intervened. Our sinking feeling is that after pumping 50
trillion or so in money markets, the petty cash may be running quite low. In
any case, ES opens in 2 minutes. Grab the popcorn now. | w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 2 发信人: walstudio (午夜未眠人), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 科普一下吧, 看大家都Clueless一样
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Mar 16 20:26:00 2011, 美东)
最严重的后果(当然，可能性不大)
------------------------------------------------
A Global Meltdown
For decades, the world has been running its own nuclear-style reaction, only
in the currency and debt markets, where exponentially-accelerating piles of
debt and money have spun about faster and faster in a gigantic, complex,
coordinated reaction, the core of which is, and always has been, the United
States.
At the very center of this ungainly money reactor is the main fuel pile
itself, the US Treasury market. With any interruption to smooth flow of
money through this pile, it will immediately become unstable.
The threat I see goes like this:
Stage 1: The world watches, riveted, as Japan suffers a tragic and horrible
earthquake and tsunami, but as horrifying as these are, they are localized
phenomenon affecting a relatively small percentage of the country. The
realtrouble lurks within damaged nuclear plants, which are now ruined and
willnever again produce electricity for Japan, creating instant shortages
that will take years to remedy. Worse, a dangerous plume of radioactivity is
carried south by winds. Tokyo partially empties and shuts down for all
practical purposes.
Stage 2: The abrupt slow down of the world's third largest economy alters
the smooth flow of cash around the globe, and even causes reversals of some
other long-standing flows. Chaotic eddies emerge in a decades-old pattern of
ever-increasing flows of money into and out of the money centers, and
various carry-trade and other interest-rate-sensitive strategies blow up.
Manufacturing in Japan screeches to a halt, disrupting just-in-time
manufacturing strategies both internally and across the globe.
Stage 3: In order to fund the rebuilding effort, Japan has to buy a lot of
items from foreign suppliers at the same time that its exports plunge
precipitously. At first Japan simply does not participate in US Treasury
auctions, leading to a shortage of buyers. But eventually Japan has to
sellsome of its vast hoard of US bonds in order to pay for external items
needed for its reconstruction. Further, insurance companies, huge holders of
US bonds, face stiff liability claims in the wake of the worst natural
disaster to hit a heavily industrialized center and are forced to redeem
enormous amounts of Treasury paper. US Treasury yields begin to climb.
Stage 4: Continuing unrest in the MENA region serves to keep oil elevated
and local funding needs high, while Europe's weaker players (the PIIGS)
continue to slip under the waves. Money continues to ebb away from the US
Treasury market. Forced by circumstance, the Federal Reserve reverses its
linguistic course and opens the monetary floodgates once again. There's
nothing like a crisis to justify more money printing, especially to a one-
trick pony (the Fed) that only knows how to stamp its hoof on the 'print'
button.
Stage 5: An increasingly chaotic monetary and fiscal situation spills over
into the derivatives arena, creating a number of financial accidents.
Stressed governments find themselves in more of an arguing mood than a pull-
together-and-sing-Kumbaya mood, and agreements are hard to come by. Banks
begin to fail again, global trade falls off, unrest continues to build, and
then it happens - a currency crisis.
Stage 6: Everything changes. Faster than you think.
I wish I could completely quantify and justify the reason for this
assessment, but I cannot at this time. Yes, we've got some very serious
market turbulence to point to: |
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