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发帖数: 3883 | 1 Stocks Pricing In Recession, But That Is 'Unlikely': Cohen
ABBY JOSEPH COHEN, RECESSION, CNBC, MARGO D. BELLER, STOCK MARKET, STANDARD
& POOR'S, S&P, DOW
Posted By: Margo D. Beller | Special to CNBC.com
CNBC.com | 19 Aug 2011 | 04:27 PM ET
The stock market may be pricing in a recession, but such a severe slowdown
in the U.S. economy is an "unlikely scenario," well-known stock market guru
Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC Friday.
"Let’s be very clear, there are some fundamental worries," the Goldman
Sachs senior investment strategist told CNBC Friday. "But our feeling is the
valuation of the U.S. stock market is already pricing in a rather ugly
scenario."
She added, "There are many different ways to look at the mathematics of
valuation, but one of them is to say at these levels on the [Standard & Poor
's 500] what’s priced in is many years of no earnings growth. That does not
seem to us to be the most likely scenario."
She said there are several potential catalysts to spark the market higher
including improving retail sales, some job creation and the strength of U.S.
companies.
"You do see strong corporate balance sheets, lots of cash and the financial
wherewithal to hire more workers, do more investment and participate in
things like share repurchases and [mergers and acquisitions] activity," she
said.
As she has before, Cohen stressed the importance of taking a longer-term
view of "months and quarters, if not longer" and focus on "what’s really
happening in the economy, the companies and how securities are priced"
rather than reacting to short-term pressures.
From that perspective "it’s not quite as frightening as the minute-to-
minute analysis that many other people need to be paying great attention to."
© 2011 CNBC.com
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/44206921/ | p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 2 Goldman Sachs Slashes Its US GDP Forecast Again
ECONOMY, US, US ECONOMY, GROWTH, GDP, FORECAST, OUTLOOK, GOLDMAN SACHS,
FEDERAL RESERVE, FED, BERNANKE, BEN BERNANKE, JACKSON HOLE, WYOMING,
Reuters | 19 Aug 2011 | 08:46 PM ET
Goldman Sachs said Friday that it is cutting the firm's estimates for U.S.
growth in the second half of this year to between 1 percent and 1.5 percent,
as it sees the economy "losing further momentum."
"In light of the downshift in the data this week, we are cutting our second-
half growth forecasts further," Goldman said in a research note. It was the
firm's third cut in GDP estimates in August.
Goldman now expects gross domestic product growth of 1.0 percent in the
third quarter and 1.5 percent in the fourth — both down from 2.0 percent
previously.
"From already quite low growth rates, it appears that the U.S. economy is
losing further momentum," Goldman said.
According to its current activity indicator (CAI), the underlying annual
growth rate was about 1.5 percent as of July, and several major indicators
for last month were surprisingly strong.
"However, timelier survey-based data have turned down sharply, and weakness
in the hard statistics seems likely to follow with a lag," Goldman said.
It said that against this "challenging backdrop," Federal Reserve Chairman
Ben Bernanke will deliver an address to the Fed's annual Jackson Hole
Conference next week.
Goldman expects his speech to contain three main elements: a discussion of
the Fed's dimmer growth outlook, a defense of its past policy actions, and
an outline of easing options, focused primarily on changes in the Fed's
balance sheet.
"We see several reasons why Fed officials may prefer to change the
composition of the balance sheet before expanding it further, and think this
could be an important component of the speech," Goldman said.
"If used aggressively this approach could have a significant impact, and it
may be less controversial. We do not think Bernanke will signal anything
more unconventional."
Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/44210055/ |
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