X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 1 转个帖子，thestreet头牌Kass的文章，转贴跟判断多空无关。只是此人对美国体制和
企业在全球的全面优势的阐述让我印象深刻，不由得感叹，超级大国不是牛皮吹出来的，
I believe that the events over the past year (especially in the eurozone)
highlight the likelihood that the U.S. stock market will be favored among
most other investment markets in the world.
The U.S. stock market has become the best house in a bad neighborhood for
the following reasons:
The U.S. economy, though sluggish in recovery relative to past
expansions, is superior (with the exception of some emerging markets) to
most of the world's economies in terms of diversity of end markets, quality
of global franchises, management expertise, operating execution and
financial foundations.
Our banking industry's health, which is the foundation of credit and
growth, is far better off than the rest of the world in terms of liquidity
and capital. Our largest financial institutions raised capital in 2008-2009,
a full three years ahead of the rest of the world. As an example, eurozone
banks continue to delay the inevitability of their necessary raises.
Our large corporations are better positioned than the rest of the world.
Through aggressive cost cutting, productivity gains, external acquisitions,
(internal) capital expenditures and the absence of a reliance on debt
markets (most have opportunistically rolled over their higher cost debt), U.
S. corporations are rock solid operationally and financially. Even
throughout the 2008-2009 recession, most have solidified their global
franchises that serve increasingly diverse end markets and geographies.
An aggressive Fed (through its extended time frame of zero interest rate
policy) has resulted in an American consumer that has reliquefied more than
most areas in the world. Debt service and household debt is down
dramatically relative to income.
After watching regime after regime fall in Europe in recent weeks (and
given the instability of other rulers throughout the Middle East), it should
be clear that the U.S. is more secure politically and from a defense
standpoint than most other regions of the world. Our democracy, despite all
its inadequacies, has resulted in relatively balanced legislation and law
that has contributed to social stability and a sense of order.
Our regulatory and reporting standards are among the strongest in the
world. Compare, for example, the opaque reporting and absence of regulatory
oversight in China vs. the U.S.
In summary, conditions that have evolved over the past decade have conspired
to favor risk assets in the U.S. over many other areas of the world.
In the period ahead, I expect a reallocation trade out of non-U.S. equities
into U.S. equities. |
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