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发帖数: 17839 | 1 CNBC.com | December 02, 2011 | 09:07 PM EST
Markets enter the week ahead slightly more optimistic that European leaders
will finally show the resolve to address their sovereign debt crisis.
That doesn't mean a major solution will be announced, but analysts are more
hopeful that the European Union's leaders two-day summit will end Friday
with the promise of a more powerful plan to stop the spread of contagion and
the threat to the global economy.
"I think the only thing that's really significantly impacting the equity and
bond market here is what's going on over there, and whether it takes a tilt
to the right or left depends on whether the right set of people come out of
a door and start talking," said Stuart Freeman, chief equities strategist
at Wells Fargo Advisors.
Santa Rally?
The stock market gained more than 7 percent in the past week as the Fed,
European Central Bank and four other central banks joined to extend swap
lines and make dollar borrowing cheaper, alleviating some stress on European
institutions. The S&P 500 rose 7.4 percent to 1244, its best weekly
performance since March, 2009 The Dow gained 787 points, or 7 percent this
week. That put the blue-chip index back in positive territory for the year ?
it's now up 3.8 percent for 2011. The Nasdaq gained 7.6 percent this week
and the Russell 2000 jumped 10.3 percent.
And, the pros say, it may not be over yet.
"I think we could still get some lift from here," said Freeman. If Europe
continues to make progress, stocks could see a "Santa Rally" as it gets
closer to the end of the year and get some support into the start of the
year when money goes into 401K plans and is allocated into the stock market,
he said.
In the past week, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled the
ECB could do more to fight the sovereign debt crisis if European leaders
move toward financial integration. By the end of the week, it appeared a
solution involving the IMF playing some type of administrative role was
emerging. The IMF could also attract new funding to help Europe, giving
emerging economies a bigger role in the process.
"There's a couple of things that look like they're hopefully coming into
place. One is, there seems to be some realization by the ECB that they need
to be an active participant in this even if it includes using the ECB
balance sheet at some point," said Robert Sinche, chief global currency
strategist at RBS. "There also seems to be a realization that the IMF has a
role to play."
"Hopefully, they won't spend next Friday telling us what they can't do. I
think the biggest change this week was they started telling us what they can
do," said Sinche.
By the end of the week, some credit spreads narrowed and Italian bond yields
, for instance, had receded back below 7 percent. The euro rose more than 1
percent for the week against the dollar, trading late Friday at 1.3387.
Longer duration bond yields rose slightly in the U.S, with the 10-year
Treasury at 2.046 percent late Friday.
"'Tis the season to keep positive momentum in motion," said George Goncalves
, Nomura Americas Treasury strategist. "... I think behind the scenes, there
's been a vote of confidence from the central banks. By doing these swap
lines, it shows that they were willing to stand by the ECB 's side. That
means something else has to be coming. They don't think the euro is going
away. It's going to turn the tide of negativity."
Goncalves said he expects EU leaders to provide a framework of a plan. "I
think it's an announcement of a plan that they're heading down the right
track. They're all going to be giving up some of their sovereignty. They
gave up monetary sovereignty 10 years ago, and now they're going to be
giving up fiscal sovereignty ? at a certain price."
He said the euro could decline on the news, if European leaders make
progress, but that stocks would probably go higher, breaking the tight
correlation between equities and the euro.
Another hurdle for markets is the expiration of the payroll tax cuts, which
economists say would hurt growth next year if left to expire. "I think
Congress gets their act together and passes it," Goncalves said. Another
positive for stocks could be the Fed meeting if the Fed is particularly
dovish.
"The market's itching to go up," he said. "I think we need to find stability
and not have the negative fallout from Europe. If European leaders find a
way to structure fiscal integration and If the ECB shows it is a willing
lender of last resort, stocks would potentially benefit. "The big news for
next year is the correlation is going to start to break."
What to Watch
There are a few U.S. economic reports in the coming week, including ISM
services data and weekly jobless claims, but the biggest source of headlines
for markets will be a series of meetings and events in Europe as officials
work toward the summit. On Monday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets
French President Nicolas Sarkozy to discuss the summit and how to strengthen
stability rules to enable European institutions to intervene in national
budgets.
U.S. Treasury Timothy Geithner will also be meeting with officials in Europe
, and he meets Draghi, German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann and German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble Tuesday. He meets with Sarkozy and French
Finance Minister Francois Baroin Wednesday. He also meets Spanish Prime
Minister-elect Mariano Rajoy Brey Wednesday, and then goes on to Milan
Thursday to meet Italy's new leader, Mario Monti.
Monti on Monday submits his economic plan to the Italian parliament.
Analysts expect it to be an austerity and growth package that contains some
of the types of reforms that Germany and others have demanded. On Wednesday,
the Greek parliament meets on budget cuts required to secure the next round
of aid payments it needs to avoid default.
"I don't expect treaties or agreements to be signed next week, but at the
minimum markets will be expecting detailed provisions (budget deficit limits
, debt limits, surveillance and enforcement mechanisms and the like) to be
spelled out and agreed to at the EU Summit on Friday," writes Brian Dolan of
Forex.com. "... Even if they do reach agreement on concrete terms of
tighter fiscal integration, markets may still not be persuaded and stresses
could yet break out. If they fudge it again, get the helmets out."
Both the Bank of England and ECB hold rate meetings Thursday, and the ECB is
widely expected to cut rates by 0.25 percent.
Markets Mayhem
At this time of year, analysts are writing up forecasts for the next year.
Freeman said he has not come up with a firm number yet, but he expects to
see a bit better than a five-percent gain. The market is now at the edge of
his 2011 target of 1250 to 1300 for the S&P.
"It's very possible the greatest gains next year come at the back half," he
said. "It isn't really about whether (Europe) goes into recession. The real
question is what type of recession they have ... if they can control the
bleed by the banks and get capital moving ... if they keep the banks from
having serious problem, I think we'll be ok."
Freeman expects 2012 to bring continued volatility but a gradual resolution
of Europe's problems could help. "Next year, we'll hopefully start to see
some meat put on the bones of programs abroad and as that occurs, I think
investors will feel better about things," he said. The U.S. presidential
elections will also add to volatility, and the fourth year of a president's
term is typically not a banner year for stocks.
"Historically that year is a five-percent year. I think it'll do a little
better than that," he said.
As stocks roared back from the previous week's near five-percent losses,
commodities also gained. Oil was helped by concerns about Iran, which was
slapped with new economic sanctions by Western countries because of its
nuclear program. Oil crossed back above $100 in the past week, gaining 4.3
percent to $100.96. RBOB gasoline was up 6.6 percent on the NYMEX to $2.6162
per gallon, lifted in part by news of another East Coast refinery shut down.
Econorama
Monday
1000 am ISM nonmanufacturing survey (Nov)
1000 am Factory orders (Oct)
1210 pm Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on the outlook
Tuesday
1000 am Fed Gov Daniel Tarullo at Senate Banking Committee
Wednesday
0300 pm Consumer credit (Oct)
Thursday
0700 am Bank of England rate announcement
0745 am European Central Bank rate announcement
0830 am Initial jobless claims
1000 am Wholesale trade (Oct)
Friday
EU Leaders Summit
0830 am International trade (Oct)
0955 am Consumer sentiment (Dec) | w*****y
发帖数: 2182 | | S*******s
发帖数: 10098 | 3 真是不错的帖子， 谢谢你。
leaders
more
and
and
tilt
of
【在 T*********s 的大作中提到】
: CNBC.com | December 02, 2011 | 09:07 PM EST
: Markets enter the week ahead slightly more optimistic that European leaders
: will finally show the resolve to address their sovereign debt crisis.
: That doesn't mean a major solution will be announced, but analysts are more
: hopeful that the European Union's leaders two-day summit will end Friday
: with the promise of a more powerful plan to stop the spread of contagion and
: the threat to the global economy.
: "I think the only thing that's really significantly impacting the equity and
: bond market here is what's going on over there, and whether it takes a tilt
: to the right or left depends on whether the right set of people come out of
| T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | |
|
