X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 1 http://online.barrons.com/article/SB500014240531119043319045773
First, let's get this out of the way - I fought the trend and the trend won.
Despite my bearish pronouncements, the stock market rumbled its way higher
in the first quarter of the year with nary a hiccup. The Standard & Poor's
500 index's gain of 12% was indeed the best opening to a year since 1998.
And the Nasdaq beat that with an 18% increase.
But expecting the performance of the second quarter to come close to the
performance of the first may be a bit of a pipe dream, even for the most
bullish among us. Such a sustained pace is more often seen at the start of
bull markets and not in a market that has already doubled in three years.
My market concerns over the past few months were due to a mounting war chest
of negative technical evidence. But I underestimated the lasting and
multiplying effects of the Federal Reserve's continued low interest-rate
policy and injections of liquidity via its bond-buying campaign (
quantitative easing).
However, the market's strong gains did not negate the technical negatives
that were in place and now there are several disturbing new ones developing.
The rising trend itself is the sole technical reason to stick with stocks.
And until it cracks, there is not much for a bear to do.
The trendline to watch on the S&P 500 originates at the November 2011 low (
see Chart 1). Sometime later this week, this line will cross the 1400 level,
which is more or less in the middle of the index's range over the past two
weeks.
Chart 1
STANDARD & POOR'S 500
[GT1-0402]
The positive, of course, is that the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are still
notching higher highs and higher lows.
But an argument in favor of a stock-market pullback is questionable momentum
. Price momentum, or price inertia if you prefer a different spin, is one of
the major supporting arguments in chart analysis. Strong price action
should come with good momentum, good volume and happy sentiment. When these
indictors start to fall down, the rising trend may be in jeopardy.
Volume has been low for months but clearly that did not cause any problems.
In March, sentiment went from bullish to excessively bullish, according to
many surveys of investor and trader opinion. That's generally viewed as a
troubling sign since stock markets tend to benefit from a wall of worry. Yet
stocks continued higher last month.
But now fading momentum joins the other technical negatives. These
supporting indicators are all in position to cast doubt on the staying power
of the rally and that makes the rising price trend susceptible to shocks
from both inside and outside the market.
Of course, there can be news and events coming out of the blue, such as
natural disasters and scandals, that can shake investor confidence in a
hurry. But there is a short list of potential shocks that are more realistic
including such possibilities as a major stumble by the beloved Apple (
ticker: AAPL), military escalation in Iran and the Middle East, and a gallon
of regular gasoline soaring past $4 nationally.
Another negative on stock prices might be the economic problems in Europe
coming back to the fore. Investors would be justified in being nervous after
looking at the stock indexes of Italy and Spain, members of the so-called
PIIGS countries, along with Portugal, Ireland and Greece.
These European bourses put in terrible performances in the last two weeks.
While the S&P 500 index gained a fraction and the German market lost 3.9%,
Italy lost 6.4% and Spain lost 5.6%. Both Italy and Spain broke down below
respective technical supports and 200-day moving averages.
In other words, these markets are not getting any healthier and if they
start to get worse the negative tone could easily spill out to the domestic
marketplace. So, too, could it cause a flight into the comparative safety of
the U.S. dollar. Given the inverse relationship stocks have had with the
greenback so far in 2012, it could be a catalyst to send stocks lower.
Also, the yields offered by longer maturities in the Treasury market are
creeping higher and may start to compete with stocks for investor dollars.
But again, until trendlines supporting the major domestic indexes are broken
to the downside it is all "could have" and "should have." The trend remains
up.
However, it would not hurt to take some money off the table, even if you
believe the rally is not over. | X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 2 这是我在barron里常看到一个人的文章，参考，不能作为交易一句，ymyd。 | k********8
发帖数: 7948 | |
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