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发帖数: 2767 | 1 http://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/sp-500-rally-nearing-a-cycli
SP500 Rally Nearing A Cyclical High
August 8, 2012 By Dave Banister
SP 500 may be nearing a cyclical high in the coming two weeks of trade:
David Banister- www.markettrendforecast.com
THe SP 500 has rallied to a post June 4th high of 1409 this week, about 13
points shy of the Bull Market cycle highs of 1422 earlier this year.
The rally has overlapped along the way, forming a series of “3′s” which
are sometimes found in impulsive bullish moves, but usually found at the end
of bull cycles whether they be short term or long term cycles.
To wit, the first 11 trading days off the 1267 SP 500 lows saw a 97 point
rally, again in only 11 trading days.
The last 34 trading days we have only been able to move up about 44 further
points, indicating the rally is getting long in the tooth and a bit tired at
that.
So 11 days, 97 points… 34 more days, only 44 further points.
Another 10 trading days would mark a 55 fibonacci trading day cycle, so we
should be alert to potential rally highs between August 13th and August 22nd
as a window for a top.
A few days ago I discussed we may see a continual sloppy drift up to 1425-
1445 ranges, with 1434 a key pivot line to watch.
Although the count doesnt really fit for me, if this rally from the June
lows is a 5th and final wave up… then a 5th wave rally to complete a larger
cycle often is characterized by a series of 3′s.
To summarize:
The first leg of the rally was a 3 wave rally to 1363, about 97 points in 11
days. We have continued with overlapping 3′s. This final stage of the
rally is likely going to be 5 waves or ABCDE in nature to complete the
entire cycle up from 1267
That cycle high should come within the Aug 13th-22nd window and in the 1425-
1445 ranges. |
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