t******g
发帖数: 462 | 1 传统的硬盘公司只剩3家了：westdigital, Seagate 和 hitachi (市场占有率可忽略）
这两年big data/cloud火热,带动了硬盘和存储的需求，WDC和STX都涨了不少， STX目
前相对便宜。
Barron's一直看好STX：公司现金充足，正在回购30%股票及近期股息可能增加 10%
如果短期内flash memory(SSD drive)价格不急速下跌, STX也许还能有一些好日子
Seagate Driving Stock Value Higher
By ANDREW BARY | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
An aggressive share repurchasing program, a 4% yield, and storage demand
growing 40% a year. What's not to love?
Seagate Technology is committed to an aggressive share repurchase program
that is designed to reduce its outstanding shares by about 30% to 250
million by the end of 2014, according to Patrick O'Malley, Seagate's chief
financial officer.
"We can get there," O'Malley told Barron's in an interview Monday. Seagate (
ticker: STX) already has reduced its share count to 359 million from 500
million in the past three years. The company also pays an ample dividend of
nearly 4% based on the current stock price of around $40, and an increase of
10% or more could come later this year.
The buyback program is bullish for Seagate, whose shares trade around 40,
because it should significantly boost earnings per shares. Seagate trades at
a low valuation, reflecting concerns about weak PC sales and competitive
threats to the disk-drive business, a market it dominates along with Western
Digital.
Seagate trades for just seven times projected profits of $5.35 a share in
the current fiscal year ending in June 2014. With the same level of absolute
earnings in fiscal 2015, Seagate could earn more than $7 to $7.50 a share
with a lower share count. Barron's has been bullish on Seagate, most
recently in an article last year ("One of the Best Tech Plays Outside Apple,
" April 14, 2012) when the stock traded around $27.
Seagate has been a leader in the technology industry in returning cash to
shareholders. That has played well with investors, and Seagate shares have
tripled in the past three years. In our most recent issue, we wrote that
Microsoft should emulate Seagate in returning so much cash to shareholders.
Seagate aims to return about 90% of its free cash flow to holders via
dividends and share repurchases. The buyback program is lumpy because the
company wants to preserve about $3 billion of deferred tax assets and it is
subject to complex rules from U.S. tax authorities on how much stock it can
repurchase in any given quarter.
Seagate bought back just one million shares in the June quarter and already
has bought back the maximum of four million in the current period. It can
buy back 20 million in the December quarter.
The shareholder-friendly approach reflects the views of CEO Steve Luczo and
the board. "We don't believe in holding excess cash on our books," O'Malley
said. The company had $2.3 billion of cash and equivalents on its balance
sheet at the end of the June quarter, and $2.7 billion of long-term debt.
Seagate shares, up 30% this year, have trailed those of Western Digital,
which are up more than 50% to $65. One reason is that Western Digital has
been more aggressive than Seagate in purchasing companies that make solid
state, or flash memory, which competes against disk drives. There's concern
given weakness in the PC market that demand will continue to cool for disk
drives and that flash memory, which is used by Apple in iPads and some
laptops, will take share from disk drives. Western Digital's commitment to
flash memory was highlighted by its deal Monday to pay $645 million for the
privately held Virident.
O'Malley said investors seem worried that Western Digital is ahead of
Seagate in flash memory but Seagate's management isn't concerned. "We'd
rather be patient," he said, potentially paying a higher price for an
established company later than to buy earlier-stage companies today. Seagate
also is dubious that flash, which now has a roughly 10% market share in key
storage areas, can take a big bite of the disk drive market since disk
drives offer much greater storage capacity at far less cost. And demand for
storage is growing at 40% a year, O'Malley said, driven in part by massive
data storage in the cloud.
There's speculation that Seagate may feel compelled to make a solid-state
memory acquisition to keep pace with Western Digital (WDC) and speculation
Monday centered on Fusion-io (FIO). Any big solid-state deal could set back
Seagate's buyback plans.
Seagate may have more to say about potential acquisitions and its buyback at
its investor day Tuesday in New York. O'Malley said Seagate has the
wherewithal to drop its share count by roughly 100 million shares, which
would cost $4 billion, at current prices, from projected earnings and
borrowings, if needed. Seagate also could get $700 million in a legal
settlement with Western Digital over misappropriation of trade secrets.
A sharp drop in the share count would provide a nice lift to earnings per
share and enable Seagate to be even more generous on the dividend. Seagate
is steadily going private as investors fret about its future. That looks
like a good scenario for shareholders. |
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