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发帖数: 644 | 1 美国经济陷入“双底衰退”周期的可能性已经有所下降，因此美联储可能没有足够的理
由来采取进一步的刺激性措施
Easing 'Tough Call,' Jobless Rate Won't Top 10%: Bullard
A decision on the next round of buying assets at the Federal Open Market
Committee's meeting will be difficult to take as the risk of a double-dip
recession has receded, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard told CNBC
Friday.
He also said he did not anticipate unemployment rising above 10 percent,
despite worse-than-expected non-farm payroll figures released Friday.
"I think this upcoming FOMC meeting is going to be a tough call… the
economy has slowed but it hasn't slowed so much," he said.
"I would say that I will go in the meeting with an open mind… you never
want to pre-judge these things," Bullard added.
"The economy has slowed but it hasn't slowed so much that it is an obvious
case to do something. It would be a very reasonable decision to say 'hey
maybe we should just push it off a meeting or two and see how the data comes
in;' that is a very reasonable point of view," he added.
Many analysts have predicted that the Fed will announce new quantitative
easing measures — buying assets to boost the money supply — at its
November meeting, to counter the threat of a weakening economy.
"We have a very easy policy but inflation has been trending down," Bullard
said, adding that the Fed faces a decision between keeping the status quo or
moving further with monetary easing.
"There has been a disinflation trend in 2010 but the reason that it's a
close call is that it flattened out," he said. "It's very reasonable to
think that maybe you don't need to do very much. It's possible."
Gross domestic product data for the third quarter, which are due to be
released before the FOMC meeting, will be important for the Fed, but a
decision on whether to further expand the central bank's balance sheet will
not depend on a single number but on a combination of economic data, he
added.
"Certainly the jobs number today will be one of the key ones, but it's not
just that in and by itself," he added.
Asked whether he thought unemployment would rise past 10 percent, Bullard
said:
"Well of course it's possible. I'm not really anticipating that, though. It'
s been unusual in economic history in the US for the unemployment rate to go
back up toward its peak or past its previous peak once the economy starts
to recover."
He noted that unemployment figures are usually revised and policymakers must
keep that uncertainty in mind when taking decisions.
The US economy lost 95,000 jobs in September, more than expected, but
unemployment remained flat at 9.6 percent.
"I think the private sector number is the key number here," Bullard said
after the data was released. "We'll just have to go forward and feed that
into our models."
Jobs in the private sector increased by 64,000 in September, slower than
August's 93,000 increase.
Risks Attached
The dollar strengthened versus the euro after his remark that the Fed's
meeting will be tough and US stock index futures fell slightly, but they
pared their losses when Bullard voiced his concern about disinflation.
"If you do QE2 (the second round of quantitative easing) in a controlled,
disciplined way it's a way to control this disinflation trend," he said.
"You want to balance the risks against further action but I don't think you
can say 'Gee, we've done all we can'" about disinflation, Bullard added. "If
the situation requires it, you have to act on it."
"Our responsibility is to get monetary policy as correct as we can get it
and that's what we're trying to do," he said.
He acknowledged that the markets have attached a "high probability" on the
Fed deciding on more asset-buying at its November meeting but said FOMC
members need to take into account all possibilities.
"There are risks in expanding the balance sheet… you've got to look at both
sides here," Bullard said.
A "natural thing" would be for the Fed to wait until December or January to
get more clarity on what the data predicts for the recovery for 2011, he
added.
One argument in favor of boosting the money supply is that inflation has
been falling, pushing up the cost of lending in a period of economic
weakness, he said.
"This disinflationary trend that we've seen in 2010, with nominal interest
rates at zero, real interest rates are rising, you don't want interest rates
to rise … you can reflate a little bit."
He refused to comment on the effect that quantitative easing has on the
dollar, as many market participants said the greenback's weakness is caused
by the Fed's easy money policy.
"The dollar is the Treasury's policy and we have to let the Treasury
Secretary run that policy," Bullard said.
"Debate inside the Fed … always talks about meeting our mandates on maximum
sustainable employment and inflation on target," he added.
A "good number" for quantitative easing is buying $100 billion worth of
bonds per month, because it is better to go in small steps, according to
Bullard.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke keeps a balanced view of both risks and merits of
quantitative easing, despite critics accusing him of being too dovish and
nicknaming him "Helicopter Ben," Bullard said.
"I think he's right in the middle. Just go read his speeches," he said.
© 2010 CNBC.com
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/39570804/ |
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