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j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: jhsph07 (银杏), 信区: Stock
标 题: 看了一圈， 大家都说VNDA好
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jul 2 13:51:40 2009, 美东)
年内有望15 - 20， 我觉得挺 make sense的。这是一位同志的保守估计：
Whole schizophrenia drug market in year 2011: 12-15 Billion (expect the
whole market to shrink a bit)
VNDA market share: 5% (600M to 750M)
25% royalty to Novatis and Titan: (450M to 560M left)
each share: $16-$20
我的估计：
如果VNDA找partner的话， 还要再割10%的rev给人家， 所以只剩下65%。
Whole schizophrenia drug market in year 2011: 12-15 Billion (expect the
whole market to shrink a bit)
VNDA market share: 5% (600M to 750M)
25% royalty to Novatis and Titan: (450M to 560M left)
10% partnership: (400M - 500M left)
Market Cap: 600M - 750M (1.5 x Rev)
each share: $22-$27
如果卖身的话， 不知道能卖多少， $25左右？ | j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 2 Pennbrook wrote on 05/22/09:
VNDA has been consolidating for the past two weeks between $10-12.5 after
having run up 1000% after the FDA granted approval for Fanapt™ for the
acute treatment of adult patients with schizophrenia. Upon further review,
VNDA’s strength may be attributed to Wednesday’s upgrade by Natixis
Bleichroeder analyst Corey Davis, who raised his target from $12 to $22.
Davis is the only analyst still following VNDA, so his opinion is
particularly relevant. In his opinion, VNDA may see considerable upside if
one of two scenarios should occur. If a partnership with a big drug maker
can be forged, VNDA could see its stock rise to $22. With 2X the sales that
would be achieved in the U.S. with the assistance of a big drug maker, as
compared with going at it by themselves and after taking into consideration
a 50/50 profit split and the 25% royalty rate that VNDA would receive, $22
would be fair value. In his other scenario, should VNDA put itself up for
sale, Mr. Davis sees VNDA fetching close to $30 a share with a larger
company being able to monetize Fanapt pretty easily, making a VNDA
acquisition an appealing proposition for a big drug maker.
Should either of the above two scenarios not occur, Davis sees VNDA’s fair
value at $12. His sales estimates would be cut in half with VNDA needing to
hire 65 reps in a scenario where it had to market Fanapt without a partner.
Thursday morning, as the markets continued correcting, VNDA was showing more
strength, trading up $.30 to $11.90. With $16 billion in revenues worldwide
, the antipsychotic market is very big. Considering that Fanapt has a
superior profile to JNJ’s Invega, which did $262 million in sales last year
, it is not unimaginable to see VNDA taking a small slice of market share
from Invega and some of the other antipsychotic drugs already on the market. | j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 3 Morning Star:
Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Inc. VNDA
Analyst Picture by Lauren Migliore
Thesis 05-22-2009
Following a nonapprovable letter from the Food and Drug
Administration, antischizophrenia drug Fanapt came back from the dead
to win marketing approval. Although Vanda will have to face off
against well-entrenched competitors in the antipsychotic market, we
think Fanapt's surprise approval has resurrected Vanda's chances of
gaining profitability.
Vanda Pharmaceuticals has followed an atypical path on its road to
becoming a commercial-stage enterprise. Rather than out-licensing
novel compounds discovered in-house to larger firms like most other
startup biotechs, Vanda in-licensed the rights to both its pipeline
candidates from big pharma. This strategy has allowed Vanda to keep
capital requirements low by outsourcing most development-stage
activities and minimize clinical risks by cherry-picking promising
candidates. Accordingly, Vanda is able to focus on its areas of
expertise, which include wielding its knowledge of pharmacogenetics to
uncover new insights into its product candidates. However, while
Vanda's strategy has allowed the firm to keep its cash burn low, its
in-licensing arrangements also steal some of the upside potential of
marketing efforts (Vanda owes hefty royalties on sales of approved
drugs).
This strategy was further called into question when Vanda received a
nonapprovable letter for its lead product candidate. Rather than
running more comparable effectiveness or safety trials, Vanda
submitted additional data already on hand and urged the FDA to look at
Fanapt's performance versus placebo. Vanda also argued the safety
benefits of Fanapt, including a lower incidence of weight gain. In an
astonishing decision, the FDA bought Vanda's case and approved Fanapt
in May 2009. Vanda will need to devise a successful marketing strategy
if it does not want its efforts to go to waste. Fanapt is the seventh
market entrant into the antipsychotic arena and faces competition from
the likes of AstraZeneca's AZN Seroquel and Johnson & Johnson's JNJ
Risperdal. With Pfizer's PFE Geodon (the lowest-selling drug in its
class) still bringing in $1 billion in annual revenues, we think
Fanapt has the potential to achieve blockbuster status as well.
Vanda's remaining pipeline candidate is tasimelteon, an oral compound
in development for sleep and mood disorders. Tasimelteon is undergoing
late-stage testing for insomnia, and Vanda hopes to pitch the drug to
the $7 billion insomnia market as a treatment that addresses the
underlying causes of sleeplessness. Additionally, Vanda has found
evidence that tasimelteon may be effective in treating depression due
to its impact on the brain's melatonin receptors. We think the
experimental candidate's performance so far has been lackluster and
maintain that Fanapt remains the star in the lineup. However, given
the fact that Vanda has yet to decide whether to market Fanapt alone
or seek a partner, we think that a great deal of uncertainty surrounds
Vanda's commercial strategy and ultimate value.
Valuation
Our fair value estimate is $20 per share. With Fanapt's recent
approval, Vanda is poised to receive its first taste of product
revenue by year end. We expect increased penetration into the
antipsychotic market and the potential introduction of a long-acting
injectable formulation to drive strong Fanapt sales; we assume Fanapt
will reach peak annual sales north of $1 billion before exclusivity
expires around 2016. We believe tasimelteon could make it to market by
2012 for insomnia and 2014 for depression, and we assign the drug a
61% and 20% probability of approval, respectively. Furthermore, we
expect selling and administrative expenses to ramp up significantly as
Vanda builds a U.S. salesforce. Research and development costs should
also accelerate as the firm puts drug development of tasimelteon back
on line. If Vanda is able to organize an effective salesforce by the
end of 2009, we expect Vanda to make it into the black by 2013.
However, our fair value estimate may change as details of potential
partnership agreements become known.
Risk
Despite Fanapt's approval, Vanda faces an uphill battle on its road to
commercial success. As a "me-too" drug, Fanapt needs to show
differentiation in a competitive market dominated by big pharma. While
Vanda will tout Fanapt's safety profile, the risk of QTc interval
prolongation in some patients may weaken Vanda's case. We think
commercialization risk will be further amplified if Vanda proves
unable to coax a larger partner into its corner. Finally, Fanapt may
be Vanda's lone marketed product if tasimelteon fails to clear
clinical and regulatory hurdles of its own. |
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