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b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 EEInvestor 俱乐部 】
发信人: badfish (badfish), 信区: EEInvestor
标 题: YGE to outpeform solar stocks:Poll
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 5 16:15:57 2010, 美东)
http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/10745136.html
Yingli Green Energy to Outperform Solar Stocks: Poll
Eric Rosenbaum
05/04/10 - 11:05 AM EDT
NEW YORK (TheStreet -- First Solar(FSLR) provided the first earnings
surprise of the solar season -- but will it be the last surprise, or the
biggest one?
Maybe not, based on the way that shares of JA Solar(JASO) were trading on
Monday. JA Solar shares were up 12% on Monday, yet there was no obvious news
from the Chinese solar cell company.
While Monday was an up day for the solar sector, JA Solar's one-day returns
far outpaced optimism in the solar sector. Perhaps investors were betting on
an easy beat by JA Solar in its upcoming earnings, as pricing power remains
in the hands of the cell-and-wafer players given current demand levels. JA
Solar already announced earlier this quarter that its shipments would come
in ahead of previous estimates.
As far as the optimism about solar demand that could lead to more positive
earnings surprises, a report from Europe's main solar trade group on Tuesday
estimated that the solar market will grow to a demand level close to 13
gigawatts this year, in line with the more rosy forecasts for solar demand
that have changed the nature of debate about the impact of the looming feed-
in tariff cuts in Germany.
First Solar's ability to shift its business to modules sales into Germany
and other European countries in response to the massive demand levels in the
first half of 2010 led to a first quarter beyond the Street expectations,
and led First Solar to raise its earnings guidance for 2010. From its share-
price doldrums earlier this year around $100, First Solar has rallied to
above $140 on the strength of its outlook -- though immediately after its
earnings last week, First Solar shares had shot all the way above the $150
mark.
JA Solar was immediately down 5% at the open on Tuesday, and First Solar and
all the other solar players were joining in the selloff as the markets went
into a tailspin as European debt fears continued to weigh heavily on
trading. Maybe JA Solar's big up day on Monday just means that things are
back to normal in solar, with huge, unexplainable rallies followed by
volatile downswings compounded by overall market sentiment.
All the fears that the Chinese solar players were set to overtake First
Solar now seems an argument on shakier ground, as First Solar stakes out a
bold plan to reach 30% market share. The shakeout in the solar sector will
have the Chinese solar companies taking market share, but will it be market
share gains from just about every company but First Solar?
The First Solar earnings report wasn't all perfection, as the U.S. solar
bellwether made virtually no progress on cutting costs or increasing
efficiency of its solar panels -- lack of progress on key metrics in solar
that won't help if solar follows its typical pattern of big booms being
followed by as big busts.
First Solar's earning surprise won't be the biggest in the solar sector
either when it comes to benefiting from the boom.
Indeed, the JA Solar spike on Monday could reflect the sentiment of a recent
poll we ran on TheStreet, asking solar-savvy readers which solar company
would provide the biggest surprise in this earnings season.
We've already had one negative surprise this earnings season, with MEMC
Electronic Materials(WFR) finding a way to disappoint solar investors even
amid the current boom conditions in the sector.
It's also interesting to note that even as optimism again reigns supreme in
solar, shares of many solar companies are not trading any higher than they
were in early 2010, when the demand forecasts were much lower and the German
feed-in tariffs a bigger unknown.
Chinese module players like Trina Solar and Yingli Green Energy(YGE) have
rallied off lows reached earlier in 2010, but are trading at levels that are
no higher than where they were after an early January selloff in the solar
sector stemming from the German feed-in tariff cut plans.
The only solar companies trading this week considerably higher than where
they traded after January's selloff are First Solar and JA Solar, and two
wafer makers. In the wafer space, both LDK Solar(LDK) and ReneSola(SOL) are
also trading at high points for the year, as the pricing power at the level
of wafer-and-cell suppliers boosts the short-term fortunes of these
companies.
Yet Chinese module makers like Yingli, and even Trina, have not benefited
nearly as much from the improving solar demand outlook.
The results of the survey asking TheStreet alternative energy investors
which solar companies' earnings would provide the biggest jolt to share
price seems to reflect two trends, pricing power in solar as demand crests,
and the recent underperformance of shares like Yingli Green Energy
positioning the company for a rally on its earnings. Which brings us,
finally, to our results:
Approximately 25% of solar investors in the survey audience think that it
will be Yingli Green Energy that experience the biggest earnings rally.
Notably, Yingli's share price has not recovered at all this year, even as
many solar shares have risen as fears of a worst-case scenario in Germany
ebbed and the demand forecasts started coming in much higher than expected.
Yingli's shares today are more or less exactly where they were -- between $
12 and $13 -- after a huge selloff in Yingli shares from a 2010 high above $
18 in January.
Thus, readers seem to think Yingli is the sleeping earnings giant, ready to
pop, even though there are still widespread fears among the analyst
community that Yingli's ramp-up of its polysilicon plant will continue to
cut into its short-term earnings power.
Monday's big winner in solar, JA Solar, was second among survey takers, with
21% of poll respondents betting that JA Solar will deliver the biggest
earnings rally. It's not really going out on limb for investors to make this
call. JA Solar already guided higher earlier in the quarter, and JA Solar
was the biggest earnings rally stock in solar in the fourth quarter, too.
The question for JA Solar investors may be this: given that JA Solar just
about reached its 52-week high on Monday -- at a $6.92 intraday high versus
an annual high of $6.95 -- how much room is there for a rally in JA Solar
shares?
Suntech Power(STP) is in the same boat as Yingli, with its shares having
fallen off the deep end in January and having not recovered since that early
2010 trough. Suntech shares are trading where they have been for much of
the year, between $13 and $14 a share, and show no major sign of benefiting
from the recent improvement in the demand outlook.
Suntech's high cost structure is the long-term overhang on its stock,
equivalent to the short-term overhang on shares of Yingli, but is the
overhang on Suntech shares overdone?
Investors responding to TheStreet seem to think so. Approximately 16% of
survey takers think that Suntech is positioned to deliver the biggest
earnings surprise, behind only JA Solar and Yingli Green Energy.
Trina Solar finished fourth among the Chinese solar companies, with 14% of
survey respondents betting that Trina Solar shares would benefit the most
come earnings time. Since Trina indicated last quarter that it did not
expect to keep its gross margin at a record level in the first quarter, its
conservative outlook could be the culprit in less overt enthusiasm headed
into earnings.
Trina has not underperformed to the level of either Suntech or Yingli either
. Trina shares aren't back to the level above $30 where they began 2010, but
Trina shares have experienced a modest rally since a March low at $20 per
share.
As for the big U.S. solar power yet to report, SunPower(SPWRA), the company
said in its guidance in the fourth quarter to expect a breakeven first
quarter report, and investors are taking SunPower at its word. SunPower's
shares have continued lower all year -- and reached a new low of $16 per
share this month -- a share price trend that supports the poll view that
only 10% of investors are willing to bet on a positive earnings surprise
from SunPower. | b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 2 但是市场很不给面子。呵呵
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 EEInvestor 俱乐部 】
: 发信人: badfish (badfish), 信区: EEInvestor
: 标 题: YGE to outpeform solar stocks:Poll
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 5 16:15:57 2010, 美东)
: http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/10745136.html
: Yingli Green Energy to Outperform Solar Stocks: Poll
: Eric Rosenbaum
: 05/04/10 - 11:05 AM EDT
: NEW YORK (TheStreet -- First Solar(FSLR) provided the first earnings
: surprise of the solar season -- but will it be the last surprise, or the
| K********g
发帖数: 9389 | 3 放心，滞后一些，一定会迎来8%+的日子
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: 但是市场很不给面子。呵呵
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