b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 bluechips 俱乐部 】
发信人: liliwater (lyrist), 信区: bluechips
标 题: Current Strategies
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 7 11:34:38 2010, 美东)
From
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2010/05/some-thoughts-on-seis-de-mayo-mini.html
I think it makes much sense:
* The possibility of a fat finger order entry error cannot be dismissed, but
even if there were one or more
unintentional large trades, this does not nullify the concerns about
sovereign debt contagion, breaking of
technical support, recent excessive bullish sentiment, etc.
* The bottom line is that stocks still have serious problems of a
fundamental and technical nature.
Today’s correction would not have been so steep if stocks had not rallied
so sharply, with only brief
interruptions, for the past 14 months.
* The VIX spiked over 40 today. While there is no magic number that signals
a VIX top, the volatility index is
up more than 110% in the last 18 trading days. Apart from September-October
2008, this has never
happened in the 17 years since the VIX was launched.
* Whether tomorrow morning opens up or down, I would not give much credence
to any big moves at the
open tomorrow. If I trade at all in the first half hour, I expect I will be
fading any big moves.
* Looking next week and beyond, I would not be surprised to see stocks enter
into a trading range, with the
late April highs as a top and today’s lows as a bottom.
* Traders should keep in mind that watching and waiting for more market
clarity is an appropriate strategy
at times. Patience and discipline almost always trump trying to make
something happen.
* In times of increased uncertainty, I try to focus on preserving capital,
evaluating the fundamental causes
and likely duration of high uncertainty, targeting only high reward-risk
opportunities, scaling in to new
positions, and adhering to stringent stop loss and position management
guidelines.
* Finally, a personal motto is, “In volatility, there is opportunity!” |
|
