h*****8
发帖数: 4754 | 1 今天ARNA ER啊？都没注意到。
看到一篇文章，大家参考一下。
我个人PREFER VVUS，昨天的ARNA 被STOP LOSS了，短期不打算再进了。
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/arena-pharmaceuticals-obesity-drugs-lorcaserin-qnexa/5/7/2010/id/28182
No Advisory Panel for Arena's Obesity Drug?
By Lisa LaMotta May 07, 2010 1:28 pm
Vivus' Qnexa will face an advisory panel in July, but the FDA has yet to
summon its biggest competitor.
Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) reported first-quarter earnings this morning,
but there was nothing particularly interesting about the small biotech's
numbers. What should be grabbing investors' attention is what wasn't there -
- namely a date in which the FDA will hold an advisory panel to review the
company's obesity drug lorcaserin.
The reason Arena hasn't announced a date yet is because the FDA hasn't
notified the company that the drug will face a panel. This should come as a
shock to any investor who follows biotechs, especially the obesity space.
Arena's top competitor, Vivus (VVUS) has an obesity drug called Qnexa that
will face advisory panel on July 15. Both Qnexa and lorcaserin had new drug
applications submitted to the FDA within a week of each other -- around late
December. The drugs also face approval within the same week of late October
. Yet, the FDA has already notified Vivus that Qnexa will face expert
scrutiny; investors of both companies were sure that the government
oversight agency would announce shortly after that lorcaserin would be
joining Qnexa at the same panel, but no such thing has happened.
(For commentary on the Qnexa panel, see Another Catalyst for Vivus)
So no one ever really knows what the FDA is thinking -- the agency has been
known to surprise investors and companies on plenty of occasions, but there
are a few things that could be going on here.
Friday morning the Twitter-verse was abuzz with the topic and several people
presented theories. Forbes' Matthew Herper speculated that the FDA only has
questions about Qnexa because it already has plans to reject lorcaserin, as
well as Orexigen Therapeutics' (OREX) obesity drug, which is also facing
approval. While this is unlikely, it is a possibility.
Another scenario is that the FDA is holding separate advisory panels for the
drugs. The agency is required to give a company 55 business days notice
before a panel is held -- that means July is out. Yet, the FDA's
Endocrinologic and Metabolic advisory committee is tentatively scheduled for
an advisory panel meeting on September 15 and 16; this would be the
committee of experts that would reside over a panel for the obesity drug and
would give the FDA enough time to notify Arena.
Some consider the options irrelevant. Vivus' obesity drug is likely the best
bet for investors and potentially could be the only one of the three that
eventually gets approved. Meanwhile, Arena's lorcaserin seems to have the
best safety profile, but lacks efficacy. It's unlikely that the FDA will
approve a drug that is only mildly effective for a disease that has had a
history of unsuccessful drug candidates, even if the drug proves to be safe.
All three companies are battling for a piece of the obesity pie. There are
more than 72 million obese or overweight people in the US, about 20 million
of those people are also diabetic -- a disease commonly associated with
being overweight -- and another 1.6 million are expected to be diagnosed
each year, according to the American Diabetes Association
.
The weight-loss category is one of the only untapped markets for
pharmaceuticals; if approved, this category of drugs could be the next
blockbuster the sector has to offer. According to a recent report by the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, obesity-related health-care
costs totaled $117 billion in 2000. Between 1987 and 2001, diseases
associated with obesity accounted for 27% of the increases in medical costs. |
g******0
发帖数: 1165 | 2 哟 ARNA 自从我AONE够淫荡的时候 就没关系了
跌破3刀强支撑了 |
h*****8
发帖数: 4754 | 3 估计就是这篇文章的威力。
【在 g******0 的大作中提到】
: 哟 ARNA 自从我AONE够淫荡的时候 就没关系了
: 跌破3刀强支撑了
|
h*****8
发帖数: 4754 | 4 也可能因为没有什么SAFETY问题，不需要ADVISORY PANEL？
【在 h*****8 的大作中提到】
: 今天ARNA ER啊？都没注意到。
: 看到一篇文章，大家参考一下。
: 我个人PREFER VVUS，昨天的ARNA 被STOP LOSS了，短期不打算再进了。
: http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/arena-pharmaceuticals-obesity-drugs-lorcaserin-qnexa/5/7/2010/id/28182
: No Advisory Panel for Arena's Obesity Drug?
: By Lisa LaMotta May 07, 2010 1:28 pm
: Vivus' Qnexa will face an advisory panel in July, but the FDA has yet to
: summon its biggest competitor.
: Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) reported first-quarter earnings this morning,
: but there was nothing particularly interesting about the small biotech's
|
w*******d
发帖数: 3714 | 5 Meanwhile, Arena's lorcaserin seems to have the
best safety profile, but lacks efficacy. It's unlikely that the FDA will
approve a drug that is only mildly effective for a disease that has had a
history of unsuccessful drug candidates, even if the drug proves to be safe.
这个就是作者胡扯了。上次Fen-Phen为什么最后偷鸡不成蚀把米？不是因为减肥效果不
够强大，而是太强大足以把人减死了。
如果减肥药历史上出过丑闻，因为副作用太强导致药厂赔了上百亿，那FDA现在考虑批
准减肥药，是宁可错杀一百呢，还是宁可放过一个？
从这个角度来说，作者的逻辑就很搞笑了：FDA曾经据过很多减肥药，因为他们副作用
太强大。现在有了一个副作用极小的药，但是FDA还是很可能据？
我觉得呢，lorcaserin很可能因为药效不够杯具；但是qnexa更可能因为副作用太大杯
具。毕竟效果不好对FDA来说不是什么大不了的事情，如果FDA再次披了一个可以吃死人
的减肥药，那那帮子老头们面子上可挂不住了。所以有speculation说7月份FDA就是堂
审qnexa的副作用问题，就比较合理了。 |
w*******d
发帖数: 3714 | 6 arna感觉就是不确定性相对较小，所以赌徒们不兴奋；赌徒们就喜欢DNDN/ITMN这种大
喜大悲的，比较high。。。
【在 g******0 的大作中提到】
: 哟 ARNA 自从我AONE够淫荡的时候 就没关系了
: 跌破3刀强支撑了
|
K********g
发帖数: 9389 | 7 没关系，我留着ARNA不是短期的，学习东洋参的，赫赫。长期拿着的，还不到发力的时候
VVUS现在还不错，继续拿着。
【在 g******0 的大作中提到】
: 哟 ARNA 自从我AONE够淫荡的时候 就没关系了
: 跌破3刀强支撑了
|
h*****8
发帖数: 4754 | 8 这说的在理，我并不是说VVUS比ARNA批的几率就大多少。
关键是看市场焦点/庄家炒作的目标。
我们就做个顺风船。
ARNA的FDA日子有了没？应该在7/15后吧？
7/15前跑掉VVUS的同时，顺手牵些ARNA。
如果VVUS悲剧了，估计炒作的焦点就是ARNA了。
或者不等VVUS的结果，有人出来PUMP ARNA，股价上量上行，再上船不迟。
【在 w*******d 的大作中提到】
: arna感觉就是不确定性相对较小，所以赌徒们不兴奋；赌徒们就喜欢DNDN/ITMN这种大
: 喜大悲的，比较high。。。
|
K********g
发帖数: 9389 | 9 赫赫，ARNA在10月22号？
【在 h*****8 的大作中提到】
: 这说的在理，我并不是说VVUS比ARNA批的几率就大多少。
: 关键是看市场焦点/庄家炒作的目标。
: 我们就做个顺风船。
: ARNA的FDA日子有了没？应该在7/15后吧？
: 7/15前跑掉VVUS的同时，顺手牵些ARNA。
: 如果VVUS悲剧了，估计炒作的焦点就是ARNA了。
: 或者不等VVUS的结果，有人出来PUMP ARNA，股价上量上行，再上船不迟。
|
h*****8
发帖数: 4754 | 10 有LINK吗？我没找到
【在 K********g 的大作中提到】
: 赫赫，ARNA在10月22号？
|
|
|
h*****8
发帖数: 4754 | 11 根据今天的收盘价，它们给的TARGET的涨幅
OREX>ARNA>VVUS
Davenport & Co. Starts Three in the Obesity Therapeutics Sector (ARNA, OREX,
VVUS)
May 7, 2010 10:07 AM EDT
Davenport & Co. starts three Obesity Therapeutics companies today:
* Arena Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ARNA) with a Buy rating and price
target range of $5 - $6. The firm cites confidence in Lorcaserin weight
management agent, whose phase III have achieved solid results. The NDA filed
with the U.S. SEC was accepted, and they expected review in Q310.
Significant indebtedness increases investment risk.
* Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: OREX) with a Buy and $13 - $14
price target. Rating based on Contrave weight management phase III showing
positive results. Average weight loss achieved was 8%+. Expects physician
panel Q310.
* Vivus, Inc. (Nasdaq: VVUS) with a Buy and $16 - $17 price target. The
firm notes superior results from Qnexa phase III. Weight management achieved
was 13%+ while being well tolerated. Also Avanafil ED treatment entering
Phase II. An NDA to the U.S. FDA has them expecting monetization by 2012. |
K********g
发帖数: 9389 | 12 看鼓起以前的帖子。
【在 h*****8 的大作中提到】
: 有LINK吗？我没找到
|
w*******d
发帖数: 3714 | 13 OREX最搞笑的是，自己把自己实验数据给算错了报给了FDA，然后又发觉了又去改了一
下，让人不由得对他们数据的严谨产生了怀疑。。。
OREX,
filed
【在 h*****8 的大作中提到】
: 根据今天的收盘价，它们给的TARGET的涨幅
: OREX>ARNA>VVUS
: Davenport & Co. Starts Three in the Obesity Therapeutics Sector (ARNA, OREX,
: VVUS)
: May 7, 2010 10:07 AM EDT
: Davenport & Co. starts three Obesity Therapeutics companies today:
: * Arena Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ARNA) with a Buy rating and price
: target range of $5 - $6. The firm cites confidence in Lorcaserin weight
: management agent, whose phase III have achieved solid results. The NDA filed
: with the U.S. SEC was accepted, and they expected review in Q310.
|
g**********1
发帖数: 399 | 14 不奇怪，data analysis不过关
大盘跌，可以炒biotech了吧？好像跌得不多
【在 w*******d 的大作中提到】
: OREX最搞笑的是，自己把自己实验数据给算错了报给了FDA，然后又发觉了又去改了一
: 下，让人不由得对他们数据的严谨产生了怀疑。。。
:
: OREX,
: filed
|
w*******d
发帖数: 3714 | 15 今天ARNA的量跟VVUS差不多，而平时只有VVUS的一半左右，看起来ARNA要有动作了？ |
L**j
发帖数: 948 | |
w*******d
发帖数: 3714 | 17 今天不上10%应该不算“动”～哈哈
不过现在量已经超过VVUS了，属于“异动” :P
【在 L**j 的大作中提到】
: arna在动
|
