N***i
发帖数: 2063 | 1 摘要：
1. 太阳能目前的反弹是假象.
2. FA不好，原因如下:
a.欧洲削减补助.德国和西班牙，第一季度的好业绩是大家在补助消减的政策实施以
前提前买入而造成的.
b. 市场期待法国，中国，意大利，美国等国家可以提振太阳能. 但是如果期待落空
的话，会在去年价格下跌40%的基础上，再跌20%.
c.产能过剩严重
d. 如果美国政府的补贴在今年年底到期以后还能继续延续并且可持续能源标准实施
的话，美国的市场可以继续增长到2011甚至以后
3.淘汰弱者对整个市场长远是有好处的
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2010/Solar-Surge-A-False-Dawn-ENER-LDK-STP-SOL-JASO-ESLR-SPWRA0513.aspx?partner=YahooSA
Tickers in this Article: ENER, ESLR, JASO, LDK, SOL, SPWRA, STP
A raft of better-than-expected earnings reports coming out of the solar
panel sector recently raised hopes that the tide may now be turning for this
battered group. Shares of panel producers like Energy Conversion Devices (
Nasdaq:ENER), LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK), Suntech Power (NYSE:STP) and Renesola
Ltd. (NYSE:SOL) each gained more than 10% in a single trading session while
JA Solar Holdings (Nasdaq:JASO) also showed solid performance.
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IN PICTURES: 10 Ways To Prepare For Nature's Worst
Such dramatic moves have raised investors hopes that the long steady decline
experienced by many solar stocks over the past year could now be in the
process of reversing trend.
Upbeat Quarterly Results Just A False Dawn
But while chart watchers may be encouraged by the price action, those
preferring to take a fundamental view of the group have little reason to be
optimistic that a turnaround is in the cards. The grim fundamentals now
faced by the industry suggest that the recent bounce off the bottom could be
nothing more than a false dawn.
While the first-quarter results reported by many of the solar panel makers
beat analysts' expectations, many industry watchers see this as nothing more
than the consequence of a roll-forward of orders by European buyers keen to
take advantage of existing government subsidies before they're cut.
Eurozone Solar Subsidies Slashed
As is typically the case with many emerging industries, a degree of
government support was necessary to kick start things for the solar sector.
Over the last few years that support came in the form of government
subsidies in two of the largest markets for solar panels: Germany and Spain.
Now those subsidies are set to come down. Just recently, the German
Parliament voted to cut subsidies by 16% beginning this July. Last year,
Germany accounted for half of global solar panel sales.
And Spanish authorities are busy negotiating cuts to subsidies with existing
power producers that have yet to be paid out. Now totaling over 16 billion
euros, it's a huge and growing off-balance sheet liability for the Spanish
government who must now cut costs or face the prospect of seeing its credit
rating sink to junk status in spite of recent pledges of financial support
from other eurozone countries.
New Panel Glut Could Drop Price Further
With the potential loss of a fair chunk of business from their number one
and two markets later this year, panel makers have been hoping that sales to
other countries like France, Italy, Japan, China and the U.S could take up
the market slack lost to Germany and Spain. If that doesn't happen, then the
ensuing glut of panels could prompt another 20% drop in panel prices on top
of the 40% plunge experienced last year. It's a scenario that's currently
being anticipated by U.S. producers Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq:ESLR) and
SunPower (Nasdaq:SPWRA).
U.S. markets would have a chance at continued growth on into 2011 and beyond
, if federal grants, which expire at the end of this year, were extended,
and a nationwide renewable energy standard were adopted.
The Bottom Line
With the subsidy training wheels now set to come off, the back half of 2010
will not be a happy time for the solar industry. But it could set the stage
for a much more sustainable industry dynamic once the much needed cull of
weaker players takes place. (Put a little green in your wallet by investing
in these growing areas. For more information, read Top 10 Green Industries.)
Use the Investopedia Stock Simulator to trade the stocks mentioned in this
stock analysis, risk free!
By Eugene Bukoveczky
Eugene Bukoveczky is a freelance writer and investment researcher. He holds
a CFA designation and has spent several decades working in the investment
business in places like Toronto, New York, London and Dubai. He currently
resides in Nova Scotia, where, when not writing, he devotes his time to
chopping wood, growing his own vegetables, riding his bike to the store, and
thinking about other ways to reduce his carbon footprint.
Buzz up! | y***q
发帖数: 4147 | | N***i
发帖数: 2063 | 3 也许已经priced in了，这个只是这个作者写的，总有看牛的和看熊的 | l********t
发帖数: 254 | | Q********8
发帖数: 497 | 5 上周跟着大牛买了STP，要见外婆么？
【在 N***i 的大作中提到】
: 摘要：
: 1. 太阳能目前的反弹是假象.
: 2. FA不好，原因如下:
: a.欧洲削减补助.德国和西班牙，第一季度的好业绩是大家在补助消减的政策实施以
: 前提前买入而造成的.
: b. 市场期待法国，中国，意大利，美国等国家可以提振太阳能. 但是如果期待落空
: 的话，会在去年价格下跌40%的基础上，再跌20%.
: c.产能过剩严重
: d. 如果美国政府的补贴在今年年底到期以后还能继续延续并且可持续能源标准实施
: 的话，美国的市场可以继续增长到2011甚至以后
| y***q
发帖数: 4147 | 6 哪个大牛？
【在 Q********8 的大作中提到】
: 上周跟着大牛买了STP，要见外婆么？
| Q********8
发帖数: 497 | 7 股版的RIM，好像大家都说是大牛。
【在 y***q 的大作中提到】
: 哪个大牛？
| y***q
发帖数: 4147 | 8 嗯，他是捂帮帮主。
【在 Q********8 的大作中提到】
: 股版的RIM，好像大家都说是大牛。
| Q********8
发帖数: 497 | 9 你是不是大牛？帮我看看STP吧。
【在 y***q 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，他是捂帮帮主。
| y***q
发帖数: 4147 | 10 我不是大牛，这个贴的楼主是大牛。这样吧，
你发一个主贴在版上问一下吧，把你的进价和仓位说一下，看看有没有懂一点的人回答。
今天太晚了，我要睡了，晚安。
【在 Q********8 的大作中提到】
: 你是不是大牛？帮我看看STP吧。
| Q********8
发帖数: 497 | 11 看了几个帖子，觉得你很牛。
答。
【在 y***q 的大作中提到】
: 我不是大牛，这个贴的楼主是大牛。这样吧，
: 你发一个主贴在版上问一下吧，把你的进价和仓位说一下，看看有没有懂一点的人回答。
: 今天太晚了，我要睡了，晚安。
| L**j
发帖数: 948 | 12 仙子是老牛的师傅，你说牛不牛。
【在 Q********8 的大作中提到】
: 看了几个帖子，觉得你很牛。
:
: 答。
| Q********8
发帖数: 497 | 13 蛮复杂，老牛是何等人物，为何都说他牛？怎么又是YYSQQ的徒弟？
水好深！
【在 L**j 的大作中提到】
: 仙子是老牛的师傅，你说牛不牛。
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