d****7
发帖数: 2241 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 PraticalTrading 俱乐部 】
发信人: googer (cutie), 信区: PraticalTrading
标 题: 10 Bank Stocks Trading Below Book Value
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jun 18 16:41:23 2010, 美东)
这篇文章对几个小银行做了一个比较好的介绍，包括 fbp, crbc, pcbc, bbx, prwt,
snv, bpop, cse, mi & c. 每个包括目前状态，资本充足与否，可能风险，资产品质以及可
能前景。 可做参考。
10 Bank Stocks Trading Below Book Value
FBP
First Bancorp (FBP) of San Juan, Puerto Rico was trading for just 0.2 times
tangible book value on Thursday, when shares closed at $1.06, down 54% year-
to-date.
TARP Status: The company owes $400 million in TARP money and has missed
three dividend payments on government-held preferred shares since August.
Capital: FirstBancorp was ordered on June 4 by the Federal Reserve to submit
a plan within 30 days to raise sufficient capital to maintain Tier 1
leverage, Tier 1 risk-based and total risk-based capital ratios of 8%, 10%
and 12%, respectively. These ratios normally need to be at least 5%, 6% and
10% for most banks to be considered well-capitalized.
While FirstBancorp's capital ratios as of March 31 exceeded those required
by the Federal Reserves's order, the order states that if the ratios slip
below the required amounts, the company will be required to submit a plan
for "the sale, merger, or liquidation of the bank" within 45 days, unless
additional capital becomes available.
The company announced on June 4 that it was in "advanced discussions" with
Treasury officials to convert the $400 million in TARP preferred shares to
common shares, and was also planning to raise $500 in common equity.
Earnings: In late April, the company reported a net loss of $107 million, or
$1.22 a share, for the first quarter after losing a total of $275 million,
or $3.48 a share, in 2009, as charge-offs (loan losses) mainly in
FirstBancorp's construction and consumer loan portfolios took their toll.
Asset Quality: Nonperforming assets -- including nonaccrual loans and
repossessed real estate loans, less any government-guaranteed balances --
comprised 10.28% of total assets as of March 31 according to SNL. The
annualized ratio of net charge-offs to average loans for the first quarter
was 3.65%. Loan loss reserves covered 4.09% of total loans as of March 31,
staying "ahead of the pace" of charge-offs.
Prospects: The massive dilution on the table from the company's plans to
convert the TARP preferred to common and raise additional common equity are
reflected in the low valuation. Investors should steer clear until and if
First Bancorp's capital initiatives are completed.
CRBC
Shares of Citizens Republic Bancorp (CRBC) of Flint, Mich. closed at 90
cents Thursday, or 0.6 times tangible book value. Even at that low valuation
, shares are up 30% year-to-date.
TARP Status: The company owes $300 million in TARP money and missed its
February dividend payment on preferred shares held by the government.
Capital: Despite continued losses, Citizens Republic was still well
capitalized as of March 31, with a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 8.47% and a
total risk-based capital ratio of 13.49%. During the company's first-quarter
conference call, CFO Charles Christy said the company was confident it had
"plenty of capital to get us through the rest of the cycle and remain well
capitalized," according to a transcript published by Seeking Alpha.
Earnings: Citizens Republic reported a first-quarter net loss to common
shareholders of $90 million, or 23 cents a share, following a total 2009
loss of $534 million or $2.75 a share. The first-quarter loss reflected $77
million in credit write-downs in anticipation of a sale of nonperforming
mortgages during the second quarter.
Asset Quality: The nonperforming assets ratio was 4.51%, declining slightly
from the previous quarter, as the company reported improvements in several
asset quality benchmarks. The net charge-off ratio for the first quarter was
quite high at 6.01% but reflected the $77 million write-down on the
nonperforming mortgages being sold in the second quarter. Loan loss reserves
covered 4.2% of total loans, which appeared adequate.
Prospects: Keefe Bruyette & Woods analyst Eileen Rooney has a "Market
Perform" or neutral rating on the shares, with a 12-month price target of $1
. While Christy said Citizens Republic didn't plan on repaying TARP until
the bank was "through the cycle and safely on the road to economic recovery,
" dilution of the common shares is a clear possibility. The improved asset
quality trend and continued risk of dilution support Rooney's rating.
PCBC
Pacific Capital Bancorp (PCBC) of Santa Barbara, Calif. was trading for 0.6
times tangible book value at Thursday's closing price of $1.35. Shares were
up 41% year-to-date, however, the stock has been quite volatile, peaking at
$5.11 on April 23.
TARP Status: The company owes $180.6 million in TARP money and has missed
four dividend payments on preferred shares held by the Treasury.
Capital: As of March 31, Pacific Capital's Tier 1 leverage ratio was 4.29%
and its total risk-based capital ratio was 9.64%, putting it below the
thresholds required for most banks to be considered well capitalized.
On April 29, the company announced an agreement with a subsidiary of Ford
Financial Fund LP for a $500 million investment, with Pacific Capital
selling Ford's SB Acquisition Company $45 million in common shares for 20
cents apiece and issuing preferred shares for the rest.
As part of its agreement with the investment group led by Gerald J. Ford,
Pacific Capital offered to redeem $67 million in trust-preferred securities
at a generous 18 cents on the dollar. It also offered to tender $121 million
in subordinated debt for 27 cents on the dollar. This is a perfect
illustration of how painful it can be for investors to have their company "
saved."
When the Ford investment is closed, Pacific Capital will begin a rights
offering, giving shareholders of record the previous day an opportunity to
buy common shares at the 20 cent price.
Earnings: Pacific Capital reported a net loss to common shareholders of $80
million or $1.71 a share, following a loss of $431 million or $9.24 a share
during 2009. Most of the losses reflected elevated provisions for loan loss
reserves.
Asset Quality: The nonperforming assets ratio was 6.00% as of March 31. The
net charge-off ratio for the first quarter was 6.62% and loan loss reserves
covered 5.77% of total loans.
Prospects: The Ford investment is probably sufficient to save the company,
but will leave current shareholders with a very small stake. This company
provides a case-study in the steep price that must be paid by various
classes of investors to save a bank that's on the brink. Then again, as far
as the debt holders and trust-preferred investors are concerned, the Ford
deal certainly beats a total loss.
The volatility of the shares leading up to the Ford deal should be enough to
scare investors away.
BBX
BankAtlantic Bancorp (BBX) of Fort Lauderdale, Fla. closed at $1.45 Thursday
or 0.7 times book value. Shares were up 12% year-to-date.
TARP Status: The company is not participating.
Capital: BankAtlantic Bancorp is a thrift holding company, which doesn't
report the same exact capital ratios as the bank holding companies
previously mentioned. The company's main subsidiary, BankAtlantic, was well
capitalized as of March 31, with a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 7.51% and a
total risk-based capital ratio of 12.86%.
The holding company has priced a $25 million rights offering, giving
shareholders of record as of June 14 the right to purchase common shares at
a price of $1.50. The offering expires after the market close on July 20.
BankAtlantic Bancorp most recently increased its offer to redeem privately-
held trust-preferred securities totaling $230 million, to 60 cents on the
dollar from 20 cents, and extended the deadline to June 21. This was a major
improvement for investors and trustees who were holding out since the
original offer was made in January.
Before raising the offer, BankAtlantic was fighting one trustee, Bank of New
York Mellon(BK), which refused to accept the original 20 cents on the
dollar offer, even though more than two thirds of the shareholders of one of
the trust-preferred tranches had voted to accept it. While BankAtlantic
said the trust-preferred debenture required only a two-thirds vote, Bank of
New York was requiring 100% shareholder approval.
Despite tripling the offer, if BankAtlantic succeeds in redeeming the entire
$230 trust-preferred pool for $138 million, the company will be able to
book a gain of $92 million. Not bad.
Earnings: The holding company reported a first-quarter net loss of $20.5
million, or 42 cents a share, following a total 2009 loss of $185.8 million,
or $7.87 a share, with most of the losses coming from the commercial real
estate lending portfolio.
Asset Quality: Nonperforming assets comprised 10.83% of total assets as of
March 31, according to SNL, which is the highest nonperforming assets ratio
among the ten holding companies being discussed here. The ratio of net
charge-offs to average loans for the first quarter was 4.25% and loan loss
reserves covered 3.04% of total loans as of March 31.
Prospects: While BankAtlantic has been able to make many moves to boost
capital and survive the credit crisis as it works through its problem loans,
it's not easy to see how investors can make money on the stock. Another
confusing element for investors is the company's unusual structure, where
another company called BFC Financial, which is thinly-traded and controlled
by BankAtlantic CEO Alan Levan, controls 66% of the voting power among
BankAtlantic's common shareholders, despite holding less than 36% of the
common shares as of Dec. 31.
With the company losing so much money for investors over the past several
years, investors considering the stock should be aware of the fact that
senior management effectively reports to nobody.
PRWT
PremierWest Bancorp (PRWT) of Medford, Ore. is the smallest among the ten
most actively-traded bank and thrift holding companies selling for less than
tangible book value as of Thursday's close, with total assets of $1.5
billion as of March 31. Shares closed at 46 cents Thursday, or 0.8 times
tangible book, and were down 67% during 2010.
TARP Status: PremierWest owes $41.4 million in TARP money and has missed two
quarterly dividend payments on government-held preferred shares.
Capital: The holding company completed a $33.3 million common stock offering
in April. Proceeds of the offering received through March 31 brought the
company's Tier 1 leverage ratio to 8.21% and its total risk-based capital
ratio to 11%. Terms of an April 6 Cease and Desist order from the FDIC
require main subsidiary PremierWest Bank to achieve and maintain a Tier 1
leverage ratio of 10% within 180 days. Since the bank subsidiary's Tier 1
leverage ratio was also 8.21% as of March 31, it appears another capital
raise will be needed.
Earnings: PremierWest Bancorp reported a net loss to common shareholders of
$3.3 million, or 10 cents a share, for the first quarter, after losing $148.
6 million or $6.01 a share during 2009. The two main factors in the 2009
loss were $88 million in provisions for loan loss reserves and a fourth-
quarter non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $74.9 million.
Asset Quality: The nonperforming assets ratio was 8.31% as of March 31, down
slightly from the previous quarter. PremierWest's net charge-off ratio for
the first quarter was 1.93%, which was its lowest level in a year. Loan loss
reserves covered 4.16% as of March 31.
There were some bright signs for asset quality, but "adversely classified
loans" were still increasing. These include nonperforming loans, as well as
performing loans with "a well-defined weakness or weaknesses related to the
borrower's financial capacity or to pledged collateral that may jeopardize
the repayment of the debt." For commercial real estate borrowers whose loans
are maturing, there may not be sufficient collateral to support a loan
renewal, or a new loan from a different lender. Adversely classified loans
comprised 26% of total loans as of March 31.
Prospects: PremierWest completed a significant capital raise in April,
however, the company will probably need to raise capital again to comply
with the FDIC order. Investors considering the shares should wait until
third-quarter numbers are available. At that point, the company's asset
quality picture may have improved, and hopefully it will have achieved the
capital ratios mandated by regulators.
CSE
Shares of CapitalSource (CSE) of Chevy Chase, Md. closed at $4.35 Thursday
or 0.8 times tangible book value. Shares were up 6% year-to-date.
CapitalSource's main subsidiary is CapitalSource Bank of Los Angeles, Calif.
TARP Status: The company is not a TARP pariticpant.
Capital: CapitalSource is a specialty finance company, and doesn't report
capital ratios in the same manner as most other bank holding companies. Main
subsidiary CapitalSource Bank was well-capitalized as of March 31, with a
Tier 1 leverage ratio of 11.78% and a total risk-based capital ratio of 17.
35%. The holding company's tangible common equity ratio was 15.61% as of
March 31, which was the highest by far for the companies being discussed
here.
Earnings: Capital Source reported a first-quarter net loss of $211.7 million
or 67 cents a share, after losing $869 million or $2.84 a share during 2009
. As would be expected, elevated provisions for loan losses were the main
factor in the losses.
Asset Quality: For the main bank subsidiary, the nonperforming assets ratio
was 5.59% as of March 31. The net charge-off ratio was 2.05%, and reserves
covered 6.45% of total loans. Loan loss reserves appeared adequate, even
though the ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans was 9.24%.
Prospects: The decline in shares from a 2010 closing high of $6.23 on April
23 would appear to be a good buying opportunity for investors considering
CapitalSource for a long-term play on the economic recovery. The stock is
rated "Outperform" or the equivalent of a buy by Keefe Bruyette & Woods
analyst Sameer Gokhale, who said the "sell-off appears excessive." KBW
projects the company will return to profitability in the first quarter of
2011. While this is a risky play over the next year, the company's strong
level of capital mitigates dilution risk and it will be well-positioned when
interest rates rise, since nearly all of its loans feature adjustable rates
.
SNV
Synovus Financial (SNV) of Columbus, Ga. closed at $2.66 Thursday, or 0.8
times tangible book value. Shares were up 30% for 2010, even after pulling
back from a closing high of $3.82 on April 20.
The company announced on June 1 that it had completed the consolidation of
28 of its 30 bank charters operating in the Southeast U.S. into one Georgia
charter. Synovus's two remaining Tennessee charters are to be consolidated
by June 30. While the local branches will still operate under their own
brand names, this move will make it easier for the holding company to manage
its capital and cash more easily and greatly simplify its relationship with
regulators.
TARP Status: Synovus owes $968 million in bailout money, and has not missed
any dividend payments on preferred shares held by the Treasury.
Capital: The holding company's Tier 1 leverage ratio was 7.68% as of March
31, and its total risk-based capital ratio was 13.03%. June capital ratios
will be significantly higher, since Synovus raised $769 million through a
common stock offering in May, along with another $334 million from an
offering of "tangible equity units" that feature a $25 par value and consist
of prepaid common stock purchase contracts and subordinated amortizing
notes.
Earnings: Synovus posted a first-quarter net loss to common shareholders of
$230 million, or 47 cents a share, following a 2009 net loss of $1.49
billion or $3.99 a share during 2009, as the company worked through its
nonperforming loans.
Asset Quality: The nonperforming assets ratio was 6.49% as of March 31, and
while this was up from 6.23% the previous quarter, the company also reduced
its provision for loan loss reserves as it expects credit losses to continue
declining, because the inflow of problem assets had fallen for four
straight quarters.
Prospects: Several analysts are neutral on the shares, saying they are
fairly valued after the recent equity raise. Guggenheim Partners analyst
Jeff Davis projects the company will return to profitability during the
second half of 2011, while Adam Barkstrom of Sterne Agee expects the company
to continue losing money through 2011.
Tom Brown of Second Curve Capital, who also writes commentary on Bankstocks.
com, remains bullish on the company but also believes the capital raise,
while reducing the company's risk, has taken away "some of the potential
upside" of the shares. Second Curve Capital held 13.4 million or 1.71/% of
the outstanding shares in the company as of March 31, according to an SEC
filing.
Brown believes that at "7 times normalized earnings, the stock trades as if
Synovus is still on life support." (The consensus earnings estimate among
analysts polled by Thomson Reuters for the company's earnings in 2012 is 34
cents a share). He also thinks the stock could double over the next two to
three years.
While the reported financials and the capital raise make a pretty clear case
that Synovus is in pretty decent shape and heading toward profitability,
there is a potential risk of dilution if the company decides to raise even
more capital. Then again, shares are trading at a big enough discount to
address some of that risk. For investors who can commit to the shares for
three years and avoid reacting to the short-term swings of the market,
Synovus looks like a nice recovery play.
MI
Shares of Marshall & Ilsley (MI) of Milwaukee closed at $7.78 Thursday or 0.
9 times tangible book value. The stock was up 43% year-to-date.
TARP Status: The company owes $1.7 billion in TARP money, and has been
making its dividend payments on government-held preferred shares.
Capital: Marshall & Ilsley's Tier 1 leverage ratio was 9.36% and its total
risk-based capital ratio was 14.47% as of March 31. Guggenheim analyst Marty
Mosby, in his report initiating his firm's coverage of M&I with a "Buy"
rating, says the company "does not have [the] regulatory capital cushion to
repay the TARP funds," and he expects the company to issue $1 billion in
trust-preferred securities and another $1 billion in debt to repay TARP.
This would be a big advantage to common shareholders, who would avoid having
their positions diluted.
As we discussed in our look at banks that could be hurt by regulatory reform
, Sen. Susan Collins's amendment to the bank reform legislation would bar
banks from including trust-preferred equity in Tier 1 capital. If the
amendment were enacted in its current form, the capital-raising plan
discussed by Mosby would be untenable. Then again, the senator said last
week that the exclusion of trust-preferred equity form Tier 1 capital would
have to be phased-in.
Earnings: The first-quarter net loss to common shareholders was $140.5
million or 27 cents a share, following a 2009 loss of $859 million or $2.46
a share, as the company made elevated provisions for loan losses.
Asset Quality: Nonperforming assets comprised 5.55% of total assets as of
March 31 according to SNL, down from 5.71% the previous quarter. The first-
quarter net charge-off ratio was 3.89%, and reserves covered 3.55% of total
loans. During the first quarter, net loan charge-offs totaled $423 million,
which was the lowest level of loan losses over the past four quarters. While
the company still reserved more than it lost -- adding $458 million to
reserves during the quarter -- There were many signs that loan-quality
problems had crested, since early-stage delinquencies had declined for four
quarters and the inflow of nonperforming loans had declined to its lowest
since the third quarter of 2008. .
Prospects: With the political and regulatory bias against trust-preferred
equity, it seems likely that Marshall & Ilsley will at least consider a
common equity raise. Some of that risk is baked into the current discounted
price of the stock, which was trading for 9 times the consensus estimate for
earnings in 2012. Marshall & Ilsley appears to be a decent play on the
recovery for long-term investors. Mosby's 12-month target for the shares is
$10, which represented a 29% gain from Thursday's close.
C
Citigroup(C) shares closed at $3.90 Thursday or 0.95 times tangible book
value. Shares were up 18% year-to-date.
TARP Status: Citigroup received a total of $45 billion in bailout money and
redeemed about $20 billion in preferred shares held by the government in
December. The Treasury had previously converted $25 billion of Citi
preferred stock to common shares in February 2009, and is in the midst of
selling its stake in the company.
Capital: Citigroup's Tier 1 leverage ratio was 6.16% and the company's total
risk-based capital ratio was 14.88% as of March 31. With the consensus
earnings projections of profits for every quarter during 2010, it would seem
the risk of further dilution to common shareholders is off the table for
now. Continued asset sales would also boost the company's capital ratios.
Earnings: Citi reported a surprise $4.46 billion profit for the first
quarter, or 15 cents a share, in April after posting a total loss to common
shareholders of $1.61 billion, or 80 cents a share, in 2009. First-quarter
earnings improved as the company's trading revenue improved and credit costs
subsided.
Asset Quality: Nonperforming assets declined to 2.65% of total assets as of
March 31 from 2.71% the previous quarter. The net charge-off ratio during
the first quarter also declined slightly to 4.57% from 4.60% in December.
Loan loss reserves covered 6.49% of total loans as of March 31, and because
of its aggressive provisioning during previous quarters, Citigroup was able
to reserve $18 million less than it charged-off during the quarter, which
boosted earnings. This "run-off" of loan loss reserves can be expected to
accelerate greatly if credit quality continues to improve the way analysts
expect, which will further boost earnings and capital.
Prospects:
Citigroup has paid-off TARP and become profitable, removing the risk of
further dilution to common shareholders, at least for now. Analyst Richard
Bove recently said investors should aggressively buy Citigroup shares and
showered CEO Vikram Pandit with compliments.
It indeed seems that Pandit was the right person to install as CEO after
Chuck Prince stepped down in November 2007. Pandit's patient approach kept
the company from conducting a panic fire sale as many in the media were
demanding and would have led to even greater losses. It's also pretty clear
that the government's bailout of the company was a winner for all parties.
As a very large, profitable company with better expense controls, improving
credit trends and coming "reserve release," Citi is a screaming buy right
here.
BPOP
Shares of Popular, Inc. (BPOP) of Hato Rey, Puerto Rico closed at $2.77
Thursday or 0.99 times tangible book value. Shares were up 23% year-to-date.
TARP Status: The $935 million in TARP money owed by Popular was converted to
common shares last August.
Capital: Popular's Tier 1 leverage ratio was 7.34% and its total risk-based
capital ratio was 10.97% as of March 31. These ratios don't reflect the
company's April 30 acquisition of $9.4 billion in assets from the failed
Westernbank Puerto Rico, and a preferred equity raise of $1.1 billion that
was subsequently converted to common shares. Capital ratios should be
further boosted when the company sells its Evertec subsidiary, which Popular
expects to net a gain of at least $700 million.
Earnings: The company reported a first-quarter net loss of $85 million, or
13 cents a share. For 2009, despite losses from operations and preferred
stock dividends and accretion of $618 million, gains booked on the
conversion of preferred shares to common stock and trust-preferred shares
led to a profit of $97 million, or 24 cents a share. While the consensus
analyst projection for 2010 is a net loss of 15 cents a share, the
projection for 2011 is for profits in every quarter and full-year earnings
of 22 cents a share.
Asset Quality: The nonperforming assets ratio was 7.98%, increasing from 7.
53% the previous quarter. The ratio of net charge-offs to average loans for
the first quarter was 3.84% and loan losses covered 5.51% of total loans.
Prospects: Popular isn't out of the woods yet as far as credit quality is
concerned, and Puerto Rico's official unemployment rate currently exceeds 16
%. Depending on how the Collins amendment to the banking reform legislation
is enacted, another common equity raise could be needed.
Still, many analysts are bullish on the shares, including Adam Barkstrom,
who reiterated his "Buy" rating on the shares on June 3, with a 12-month
target of $5. With the increase in Popular's market share as it took on most
of Westernbank's assets and the expectation of a relatively quick return to
profitability, patient investors who can tolerate the Popular's risks from
coming banking reform and credit losses in Puerto Rico could be handsomely
rewarded. | y***q
发帖数: 4147 | | L********3
发帖数: 2272 | | L********3
发帖数: 2272 | 4 俺个人认为，找5只小银行（不容易破产的），每个买2000刀，放半年，都能翻倍。 | s*********y
发帖数: 209 | 5 也有可能半年后外婆了，某个星期五被FDIC收了。呵呵
【在 L********3 的大作中提到】
: 俺个人认为，找5只小银行（不容易破产的），每个买2000刀，放半年，都能翻倍。
| K********g
发帖数: 9389 | 6 基本靠谱
【在 s*********y 的大作中提到】
: 也有可能半年后外婆了，某个星期五被FDIC收了。呵呵
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