g******0
发帖数: 1165 | 1 By Jordan DiPietro
July 20, 2010 | Comments (13)
The best opportunity in a decade?
I know, the headline sounds outrageous. Considering that China's growth is
slowing, that the U.S. recovery is stalling, and that the EU is constantly
under financial fire, there doesn't seem to be a plethora of opportunities
out there.
After a spectacular rally in 2009, the S&P 500 has dropped by about 5% so
far this year. Almost no sector or asset class has been spared. But trust me
are trading at dirt cheap prices.
Collateral damage
One very important aspect of the stock market's decline this year is the
grave collateral damage. Certain events can shake the foundation of an
entire sector, as we've seen with the BP oil disaster. For instance, take a
look at ATP Oil & Gas (Nasdaq: ATPG). This small-time oil and gas developer
has derived much of its revenue from the Gulf of Mexico and has about 68% of
its reserves locked up in the Gulf.
Because of a possible drilling moratorium and the expectation that oil
exploration will be more heavily regulated, ATP has taken a dramatic beating
in the market. It's down a whopping 50% this year. However, is that really
appropriate? ATP still has about 32% of its reserves in the North Sea, and
although it is a high-risk, high-reward investment, the company has enormous
upside.
Similarly, dry bulk shipper DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS) has fallen by 38% this
year. Because it's a Greek company (although its revenues are totally
diversified) and because the Baltic Dry Index has been pummeled, Dryships
seems more like a victim of the market than an actual candidate for a
massive sell-off. In fact, last quarter, both revenues and net income
climbed higher, and the company continues to perform quite well considering
how drastically dayrates have fallen.
Look no further than tech titans
Sift long enough through the carnage of battered stocks, though, and you'll
find one asset class that is trading ridiculously low, and for very dubious
reasons. Look no further than your average technology stock.
According to Bloomberg, tech stocks have slumped to their lowest valuations
in two decades. Currently, tech stocks in the S&P 500 are trading at 15
times this year's earnings and 13.4 times next year's earnings. For a sector
that is known for high growth and even higher valuations, this is quite
impressive. It's even more impressive when you consider that income at tech
companies is expected to rise by 42% this year. Compare that with the 34%
increase expected for the general market, and you've got yourself an
opportunity to invest in some of the best growth companies around at
extraordinarily reasonable prices.
Furthermore, tech companies are sitting on record amounts of cash, which
will benefit them should they choose to go on a shopping spree of if they
just want to hunker down for a double-dip recession. Below, I've taken a
look at the five largest technology stocks by market cap and evaluated their
attractiveness using a variety of metrics.
Company
Price Change (YTD)
Forward P/E Ratio
Cash/Debt
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)
16.5%
14.8
$23B / $0
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
(16.5%)
10.9
$37B / $6B
IBM (NYSE: IBM)
0.1%
10.6
$14B / $26B
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG)
(24.8%)
14.9
$30B / $0
Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO)
(5.1%)
12.7
$39B / $15B
Source: Yahoo! Finance. YTD = year to date. P/E = price-to-earnings.
Sure, there are valid reasons why these stocks may be down. With the EU
crippled and U.S. businesses not spending a ton of money, the companies
listed above could definitely see a decrease in technology purchases. The
top line could be cramped for the short term as small and medium-sized
enterprises try to rein in spending.
However, Apple, Microsoft, IBM, Google, and Cisco are all trading for quite
a bit less than their five-year average price multiples. With the exception
of IBM, they are all sitting on boatloads of cash with minimal or zero debt,
giving them a great competitive advantage should stocks become so cheap
that it only makes sense to pursue tactical acquisitions.
And it's not like they haven't performed well this year. IBM, for instance,
is on pace to achieve record earnings and operating margins in 2010. My
foolish colleague Alex Dumortier thinks Big Blue is one of the most
remarkably mispriced names in the market. Google reported quarterly results
last Friday, and despite spending big bucks on overhead and hiring nearly 1,
200 new employees, it still managed to boost earnings, while revenues grew
by an awesome 23%.
The Foolish bottom line
If you look back at history, data will show that during downturns you can
often find stocks that are trading at wildly low valuations. Sometimes it's
small caps, as they tend to be pretty volatile; other times it is a specific
sector that has gotten hit for good reason (like energy stocks right now).
However, it's pretty rare that multibillion-dollar companies with huge
economic moats, tons of cash, and a history of outperformance -- like the
ones listed above -- are trading for such appealing prices.
If you're in the market for the long haul, then investing in a company like
Google or Cisco at today's prices could be the best opportunity in a decade.
I suggest you get in while there's still time.
Don't think these five stocks are cheap enough for you to invest in? Let me
know it in the comments section below
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/07/20/this-could-be-the-best-opportunity-in-a-decade.aspx
ATPG看着挺诱人的。。。。 | g******0
发帖数: 1165 | 2 By Brian D. Pacampara
February 25, 2010 | Comments (2)
Based on the aggregated intelligence of 150,000-plus investors participating
in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, small-cap oil and
natural gas producer ATP Oil & Gas (NYSE: ATPG) has earned a coveted five-
star ranking.
On CAPS, 96% of the 848 members who have rated ATP believe the stock will
outperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bulls include CanadaDreamer and
All-Star mrindependent, who is ranked in the top 1% of our community.
Late last month, CanadaDreamer brought the stock's powerful catalyst to our
community's attention:
[ATP] trades at significant discount to sector averages and peer group
metrics. Debt is an issue, but should be quickly resolved once cash flow
from Telemark begins in Q1. Once the market is comfortable with production
rates and cash flows, [ATP] will see a significant rerating.
In a pitch from two days ago, mrindependent echoes that enthusiasm. Here's
an excerpt:
Some highlights of the February 2 press release include the company’s
prediction that production will DOUBLE in 2010 and the company’s statement
that the reserve replacement ratio for 2009 was 376%. Wow! ... The company’
s presentations explain how the company is different from other oil and gas
producers in two significant ways: (1) the company only acquires properties
with proven reserves, which leads to a 98% drilling success rate and (2) the
company organizes its drilling process in “hubs”. By using hubs, the
company is able to achieve better economics and growth. ... Although long-
term debt is high at $1.2 billion, there is no solvency concern because the
company has wonderful profitability expectations and $317 million of cash on
hand.
me
【在 g******0 的大作中提到】
: By Jordan DiPietro
: July 20, 2010 | Comments (13)
: The best opportunity in a decade?
: I know, the headline sounds outrageous. Considering that China's growth is
: slowing, that the U.S. recovery is stalling, and that the EU is constantly
: under financial fire, there doesn't seem to be a plethora of opportunities
: out there.
: After a spectacular rally in 2009, the S&P 500 has dropped by about 5% so
: far this year. Almost no sector or asset class has been spared. But trust me
: are trading at dirt cheap prices.
| g******0
发帖数: 1165 | 3 【BP漏油事件爆发之前】
摘自168 Posted: 4/15/10 18:04
ATPG的性感点
1。高增长，年底产量200%；
2。最近半年，成功换庄家，踢掉了以前的黑庄，榜上了更牛的JPM，GS，下面有David
Einhorn，George Soros，SAC也跟进。
3。只要油价稳定这个水平，今年盈利1。5 - 2 块。明年5-9块。
4。明年EBITDA 大约0.7-1B。按这个行业的平均EV/EBIDTA = 5。上升空间巨大。
5。深度discount的value， NAV = 7。4 B。 | g******0
发帖数: 1165 | 4
me
【在 g******0 的大作中提到】
: By Jordan DiPietro
: July 20, 2010 | Comments (13)
: The best opportunity in a decade?
: I know, the headline sounds outrageous. Considering that China's growth is
: slowing, that the U.S. recovery is stalling, and that the EU is constantly
: under financial fire, there doesn't seem to be a plethora of opportunities
: out there.
: After a spectacular rally in 2009, the S&P 500 has dropped by about 5% so
: far this year. Almost no sector or asset class has been spared. But trust me
: are trading at dirt cheap prices.
| g****8
发帖数: 2828 | 5 我记得前一段时间，这个被什么地方downgrade了的 | g****8
发帖数: 2828 | | g******0
发帖数: 1165 | 7 en 不过据168牛人的计算 JP把ATPG的价值少算了45% | g****8
发帖数: 2828 | 8 我当时就是看了1688上面的，本来要买的，
后来一看downgrade就没有动了
不过，现在BP的形势好转了，可以观望了。 | g******0
发帖数: 1165 | 9 yeah
如果没出坏消息 而股价滑落到8.8左右 我就考虑上手了
目前看ATPG的压力位在9.87~9.92左右
如果突破了就希望能达到10.9 以及MA50天均线的11.19位置
【在 g****8 的大作中提到】
: 我当时就是看了1688上面的，本来要买的，
: 后来一看downgrade就没有动了
: 不过，现在BP的形势好转了，可以观望了。
| g****8
发帖数: 2828 | 10 我觉得要到8.8 还得看大盘
目前这样，很难跌到8.8的
【在 g******0 的大作中提到】
: yeah
: 如果没出坏消息 而股价滑落到8.8左右 我就考虑上手了
: 目前看ATPG的压力位在9.87~9.92左右
: 如果突破了就希望能达到10.9 以及MA50天均线的11.19位置
| | | g******0
发帖数: 1165 | 11 没跌落那就等它突破咯 呵呵
【在 g****8 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得要到8.8 还得看大盘
: 目前这样，很难跌到8.8的
| g****8
发帖数: 2828 | | g****8
发帖数: 2828 | | g******0
发帖数: 1165 | 14 是啊 我的眼泪是哗哗直流
【在 g****8 的大作中提到】
: 今天这个涨了
| g****8
发帖数: 2828 | 15 我那天9.2的时候买了点，今天抛了，
等下来了，再买。
【在 g******0 的大作中提到】
: 是啊 我的眼泪是哗哗直流
| C********k
发帖数: 560 | | g******0
发帖数: 1165 | 17 简要就是
ATPG 短期只能靠BP 的收拾残局进度影响。
昨天不应该进。
9月，10月也许是进的机会。
政治斗争速度比较慢，政府不太注意实际民生。
这个禁止开采是怎么说都不合理的事，民主党都要受很大压力的东西 | C********k
发帖数: 560 | | g******0
发帖数: 1165 | | C********k
发帖数: 560 | 20 那我去把 AONE 割了 上这个？
话说AONE 今天涨得不错
【在 g******0 的大作中提到】
: http://www.trader1688.com/bb/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=38250&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=345【 在 CrazyBrick (砖头) 的大作中提到: 】
| | | g******0
发帖数: 1165 | 21 ATPG 我还没上呢 想等企稳看看 今天不算突破
AONE我已经不甩它了 就一个烂货
【在 C********k 的大作中提到】
: 那我去把 AONE 割了 上这个？
: 话说AONE 今天涨得不错
| g****8
发帖数: 2828 | | b**t
发帖数: 656 | | S***a
发帖数: 1072 | 24 俺的还在水下，子弹都打光了，今天捞了几个12块的call
【在 g****8 的大作中提到】
: 今天这个盘后涨了很多。
: 决定长期持有了。
| g******0
发帖数: 1165 | | g******0
发帖数: 1165 | | g****8
发帖数: 2828 | 27 恩 看着真不错
本来打算的是到了13.5以上卖的，看这样，还要提高一下价钱。
【在 g******0 的大作中提到】
: 靠 太猛了 凹印就爽了 嚯嚯
| C********k
发帖数: 560 | |
|
