s**x
发帖数: 468 | 1 How bad can the market get today? History suggests that the worst of the day
’s declines might actually be over.
Bespoke Investment Group went back and looked at six past trading days with
moves analogous to today’s. All were days following Fed meetings, on which
the S&P fell more than 1% by 10 a.m.
The reasons for the declines varied, but the outcomes were remarkably
similar. In each case, the bulk of the declines were done at 10 a.m., as
investors digested the Fed news and then looked ahead to the future.
In four of the six cases, stocks actually rose after 10 a.m., although they
eked out a gain for the full day only twice. Of course, six data points don
’t exactly provide an iron-clad precedent. Stocks could easily break with
the past and continue down today. For one thing, there was fresh bad news
today, as the trade deficit came in much worse than expected, with exports
down and imports up. That weakens hopes for an export-led recovery.
On the two days when stocks continued lower after falling 1% by 10 a.m., the
day’s further declines were less than 1%. One of those days came in
September 2001, just after the Sept. 11 attacks, in the midst of a long bear
market. The other was in Sept. 2002, as stocks were just reaching the end
of that same long bearish stretch.
Bespoke checked all the days following a Fed interest-rate announcement
going back to 1994, the year the Fed started announcing its interest-rate
policy decisions. | o********e
发帖数: 894 | 2 已阅
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【在 s**x 的大作中提到】
: How bad can the market get today? History suggests that the worst of the day
: ’s declines might actually be over.
: Bespoke Investment Group went back and looked at six past trading days with
: moves analogous to today’s. All were days following Fed meetings, on which
: the S&P fell more than 1% by 10 a.m.
: The reasons for the declines varied, but the outcomes were remarkably
: similar. In each case, the bulk of the declines were done at 10 a.m., as
: investors digested the Fed news and then looked ahead to the future.
: In four of the six cases, stocks actually rose after 10 a.m., although they
: eked out a gain for the full day only twice. Of course, six data points don
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