w***y
发帖数: 2537 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: Lexian (蒙古大夫), 信区: Stock
标 题: 还是谈点股票吧。 有人记得老莫餐吗？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Sep 12 23:56:39 2010, 美东)
unbelievably strong. IBD100 is definitely worth monitoring if you don't want
to worry about the FA side. unfortunately a lot of stocks made their list
after substantial gain already and it's not good buying time. this one, CMG
(along with GMCR which i mentioned last week) seems to be perfect buying
spot IMO.
from weekly chart, CMG finished base II consolidation in roughly 1/2 of the
time of it's first base. broke off to all time high. On daily chart, this
breakout comes with a gap (even though it's just a few cents), this gap is
significant, especially followed with a extrmely tight consolidation. this
thing can take off any moment. and i'll not be surprised to see it at $200
by year end.
it is generally not the kind of stock i'd buy coz it's too expensive. i have
a little bit free shares left from trading couple years back. but i'm quite
tempted to add a full position in the coming week. | w***y
发帖数: 2537 | 2 发信人: netabc (只卖不买), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 还是谈点股票吧。 有人记得老莫餐吗？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Sep 13 02:04:12 2010, 美东)
Bulls Haven't Had Their Fill of Chipotle
Most analysts still like the stock, even though it's up 88 percent so far
this year, to an all-time high. Their expectations may be too lofty
Even after an 88 percent rise for shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
thus far in 2010, analysts and investors continue to find them appetizing.
A chain of so-called fast casual restaurants specializing in a limited menu
of burritos, tacos, and other Mexican dishes, Chipotle wins "buy" ratings
from 12 of 21 sell-side analysts surveyed by Bloomberg—with no "sell"
ratings on the stock. Their enthusiasm is reflected in the fact that
Chipotle is the best-performing restaurant stock in the broad Russell 3000
index. Shares hit an all-time high on Sept. 10.
What appeals to investors? "There is an appetite on [Wall] Street for growth
stocks" in the restaurant industry, says Stifel Nicolaus (SF) analyst Steve
West. "There really aren't many." Other restaurants have felt the effects
on consumers of the recession and an unemployment rate still at 9.6 percent.
Among 37 restaurant stocks in the Russell 3000, 15 saw sales drop last
quarter from a year ago, and only six experienced double-digit growth.
Despite the economic downturn, Chipotle's total revenue jumped 20 percent
last quarter, second-best in the restaurant group, after 21 percent growth
at BJ's Restaurants (BJRI). Same-store sales rose 8.7 percent last quarter—
the third-highest among restaurant stocks, after Panera Bread (PNRA) and
Starbucks (SBUX). "One of the most impressive things about this company is [
its] ability to drive more customers in the door each year," says Robert
Derrington, an analyst at Morgan Keegan.
Investors impressed by Chipotle's results include CNBC's Jim Cramer, who,
according to Bloomberg News, touted the stock on the July 26 episode of his
show Mad Money.
HEADING FOR A FALL?
After Chipotle's rapid rise this year, there is increased concern that
shares are getting too expensive. Investor hopes are high, West says. If, in
the future, Chipotle "shows the slightest sign of weakness in fundamentals,
" he says, "the stock will get hit pretty hard."
Chipotle's price-to-earnings ratio, a common measure of a stock's valuation,
is 34, compared to a p-e for the entire Russell 3000 of 16. "We think that'
s too expensive a premium to pay," says Derrington, who has a neutral "
market perform" rating on the stock. He would advise investors to buy again
if the p-e fell closer to 20.
Stifel's West still has a "buy" rating on the stock. He says Chipotle will
be a long-term success story. The chain has about 1,000 outlets in the U.S.
now, and he estimates the number eventually could grow to 4,000 to 5,000.
The chain expects to add 120 to 130 new restaurants this year, says Chipotle
spokesman Chris Arnold.
In a Sept. 1 research note, William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia called
Chipotle "one of only a handful of publicly traded restaurant companies
capable of maintaining a double-digit pace of expansion over the next five
years."
Despite an emphasis on quality ingredients, profit margins at Chipotle
outlets are wide, West says, and the restaurant's simple menu is a great
advantage. "They keep everything very, very simple," he says. "It's a big
part of their success."
RISING COST OF INGREDIENTS
To drive growth and differentiate its brand from those of other chains,
Chipotle this year created an advertising campaign—with the slogan "food
with integrity"—that extols the higher quality of its ingredients.
Nonetheless, Arnold, the Chipotle spokesman, says the company is not
investing a lot of new money in marketing. "We would rather spend money
investing in food and better ingredients," he says. "[We] really believe it'
s that good food we serve that keeps people coming back."
Asked what could taint the recent improvements in Chipotle's results,
analysts cite the possibility of higher labor costs or the effects of an
unpredictable economy. The most common worry, however, is the possibility
that the chain could end up spending much more on those quality ingredients.
On Sept. 10, corn futures hit a 23-month high on speculation the U.S. crop
will be smaller than forecast. Food commodity prices, as reflected in the
Dow Jones-UBS Agriculture Total Return index, are up 23 percent from 12
months ago.
Wells Fargo estimates food costs for restaurants will rise 13 percent this
year and another 3 percent in 2011, with beef, chicken, cheese, corn, and
wheat all above 2009 levels.
For now, like customers willing to plunk down $6 for a chicken burrito,
investors are willing to pay a premium for Chipotle's future growth. | K**********r
发帖数: 2640 | | w***y
发帖数: 2537 | | t******g
发帖数: 462 | 5 Just think about burritos/tortillas :(
Really don't understand why CMG can be so expensive | K**********r
发帖数: 2640 | 6 你还没耐心？明天有希望继续涨点。
【在 w***y 的大作中提到】
: 我没耐心， 这种股怕是拿不住
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