|
|
|
|
|
y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | 1 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 16 18:13:00 2010, 美东) 提到:
RT
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 16 18:24:25 2010, 美东) 提到:
发信人: tanmaomao (坛猫猫), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 铀价格走势图 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 16 18:23:29 2010, 美东)
Ux U3O8 Price indicator is the longest-running weekly uranium price series,
used by the industry in sales contracts
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Wed Nov 17 09:34:37 2010, 美东) 提到:
发信人: tanmaomao (坛猫猫), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: Re: Uranium/Nuclear power
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov 17 09:33:53 2010, 美东)
铀的问题是,储量充足,不可能出现长期under supply的情况,所以决定价格的关键是
库存投放量,年初价格bottom的原因就是中亚某国决定向市场释放一批铀库存
2007铀价格猛涨之后,导致市场库存过剩。指望中国和印度的电力市场来消化这部分库
存。中国目前的政策是铀矿供给立足国内自给自足。目前没有向国际铀市场购买的意向。
所以我的结论是这波铀价格上涨仅仅是QE2的结果。无关供需。 | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 2 铀价又新高了
不要被股价回调吓退信心
大盘一旦转机,CCJ是好的抄底对象。
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】 : ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆ : tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 16 18:13:00 2010, 美东) 提到: : RT : ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆ : tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 16 18:24:25 2010, 美东) 提到: : 发信人: tanmaomao (坛猫猫), 信区: Stock : 标 题: Re: 铀价格走势图 (转载) : 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 16 18:23:29 2010, 美东) : Ux U3O8 Price indicator is the longest-running weekly uranium price series, : used by the industry in sales contracts
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 3 铀价65.75,新高
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 铀价又新高了 : 不要被股价回调吓退信心 : 大盘一旦转机,CCJ是好的抄底对象。
| y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | | y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | 5 上个月文章的中文版,仅供参考。
标题和我说得意思差不多,猫猫有总结。
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Sat Dec 4 12:00:08 2010, 美东) 提到:
这个人的意思是铀更 volatile ,原因是
1: supply高度集中于几家大公司,且中亚开采地区本身社会不稳定
2:demand:中国喜欢搞大单采购,短期对市场扰动很强
3:没有像gold oil silver这样完善的期货交易市场缓冲突涨突跌
所以07年暴涨暴跌都很瞬间
投资黄金石油不如投资铀!
作者:Agustino Fontevecchia 发布于:2010-12-08
有一种金属缺乏关注,但能用来产生原子能,它就是铀。
来源于:福布斯中文网
最近市场波动,加上美元前景未卜,这些促使大宗商品成为人们关注的焦点。黄金、原
油甚至白银的价格不断呈现上涨的趋势,丝毫没有停顿的迹象。然而,有一种金属缺乏
关注,但能用来产生原子能,它就是铀。
铀不属于交易所交易的大宗商品,不过有两家公司,UxC咨询公司(UxC Consulting
Company)和特易公司(TradeTech)相继开发了已逐渐被业界接受的铀现货价格指数。
UxC甚至在芝加哥商品交易所销售期货合约。 TradeTech的铀现货价格指数11月30日上
涨至两年新高,达到每磅60.25美元。到11月3日,UxC 2011年1月交割的期货价格为61.
00美元/磅,而2015年11月交割的期货价格为65.75 /磅。
一位分析师告诉我,他们预计2011年铀价格将攀升至65美元,并设定2012年的目标价格
为75美元/磅。“铀的基本面非常强劲,而且会出现金融投机,将铀价进一步推高,这
两方面都是利好因素。”该分析师表示。
铀交易非常不稳定。UxC副总裁尼克·卡特(Nick Carter)解释说,八九家铀生产商占
据全球产量的80%至90%左右。世界上大部分铀矿来自本身局势就很不稳定的地区,比如
哈萨克斯坦、尼日尔和纳米比亚。最后,卡特解释说,铀市场规模“非常小”,为此,
其价格很容易受到剧烈波动。
“2007年,随着许多投资者、对冲基金纷纷买入实物铀,铀价格飙涨到137美元/磅。”
卡特说。查看一下铀的历史价格走势图,我们就能证实,铀市场具有价格波动剧烈的性
质。短短几个月之内,铀就从45美元/磅左右飙升到137美元/磅,而其下跌的速度也毫
不逊色。
“以前,铀市场主要受到投资者的影响,而现在正转化为一个主要受生产商-成本影响
的市场。”卡特解释道。造成这种变化的因素是在1993年签署的俄美高浓缩铀-低浓缩
铀(HEU-LEU)协议将于2013年期满。该协议允许苏联把从削减的核弹头中提取出来的
铀以免税的方式出口。该协议期满将会使铀市场承受额外的供应紧张的压力。
注:自2001年10月1日起,UxC不再发布独联体铀价格
出乎意料的是,当前市场的需求主要来自中国。截至2010年1月,中国已有11座核反应
堆正在运营之中,而且还有20多座核反应堆正在建设之中,根据国际能源机构(
International Energy Agency)的《2010年核技术回顾报告》,中国核能产量占全球
的1.9%。 “中国制定了一个非常宏伟的核计划,并宣布到2020年将把(其核电装机容
量)提高到约8万兆瓦。”卡特说。
美国在核电产量方面远超世界上任何国家,共有437座核反应堆处在运营当中,还有56
座正在建设之中。其实际产量占美国能源生产总量的20%;在全球范围内,美国总的核
电产量占世界能源生产总量的14%。
购买实物铀看来并非从这个不断增长的铀市场中投资获利的最佳途径。全球X基金(
Global X Funds)上个月推出了一个交易代号为URA的铀 ETF(交易所交易基金)。从
11月5日第一天至12月3日收盘为止,在这一个月左右的时间内,URA就已上涨了16.3%。
另一种投资铀市场的方式是通过投资铀矿公司。总部位于加拿大萨斯卡通(Saskatoon
)的Cameco Corporation公司是世界上最大的铀生产商之一,据该公司网站的资料显示
,该公司目前产量占全球产量的16%左右。这家同时在纽约证交所和多伦多交易所上市
交易的公司拥有市值高达148亿美元,而该公司最近将其年度股息(按加元派发)上调
了43%!从0.28加元上调至0.40加元。该公司首席执行官杰瑞·葛兰迪(Jerry Grandey
)说:“(股息上调)证明了我们对我们公司业务以及铀市场长期基本面充满信心。”
Cameco公司股票是URA ETF基金持仓最大的股票。该股票价格一路飙升,自七月初以来
已上涨了78.3%,回到了雷曼公司破产前的股票价位。
矿业巨头必和必拓(BHP Billiton)也是一个不错的选择。这家澳大利亚矿业公司拥有
“世界上最大的铀矿床”——奥林匹克坝(Olympic Dam)。必和必拓正在扩建该公司
在“澳大利亚境内一项规模最大的投资项目”。最近放弃了收购全球最大化肥公司——
加拿大钾肥公司(Potash)的必和必拓公司,自今年夏天以来其股票表现非常抢眼,七
月初至今股价已上涨43%。
美国知名投资网站“寻找阿尔法”(Seeking Alpha)的伊恩·怀亚特(Ian Wyatt)表
示,“投资铀收益最大的将会在一些小盘股中,比如铀能源公司(Uranium Energy
Corporation),自8月31日至今,该公司股价已上涨了180%。”该公司一直专注于并购
,尤其是在美国西南地区(得克萨斯州、怀俄明州、新墨西哥州、亚利桑那州、科罗拉
多州和犹他州),并扩展勘探开发数据库。在11月份期间,该公司已开始在南得克萨斯
一些不同的项目中相继进行钻井和生产。
铀是一个增长前景巨大、但价格波动剧烈的大宗商品。随着推行更为清洁、成本更低的
能源的政策持续下去,铀这种放射性金属将会深受市场的关注。金砖四国(BRIC,即巴
西、俄罗斯、印度、中国)都已在利用核能,而韩国、墨西哥及其他国家也在加入其间
(可通过交易代号为PJN的全球核能 ETF基金追踪这些国
家核能发展的投资收益)。铀市场非常诱人,但是,像放射性物质自身一样,也存在巨
大风险。
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】 : 今天DNN URZ URRE不错。 : http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=351&t=ACAS,AU,BBL,BHP,CCJ,CXZ
| f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 6 Chinese Uranium Demand Picks Up -- Uranium Resources & Denison Mines Poised
to Benefit
1 hours 56 minutes ago - INW
MarketwireIn a familiar theme, demand for uranium is being driven by China,
as its government plans ahead for significant expansion of its nuclear
sector. Ux Consulting (UxC) forecasts say that China is in the process
quadrupling its uranium consumption up to 50 to 60 million pounds a year.
Moreover, China, itself, says it plans to build 10 nuclear power plants a
year for the next decade. At the moment China operates 11 reactors, and has
28 under construction. The Bedford Report examines the Uranium Industry and
provides research reports on Uranium Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ: URRE) and
Denison Mines Corporation (AMEX: DNN). Access to the full company reports
can be found at:
www.bedfordreport.com/2011-01-URRE
www.bedfordreport.com/2011-01-DNN
According to the Global X Uranium ETF which was started trading late last
year, uranium provides about 16% of the world's electricity. Uranium bulls
believe that the radioactive element is a clean resource alternative for
electric generation. One pound of uranium can generate as much energy as 20,
000 pounds of coal, and leaves behind a fraction of the carbon footprint.
Indeed, the vice-president of the China Nuclear Energy Association, Zhao
Chengkun, stressed that nuclear is the only energy source that can be used
on a mass scale to achieve the nation's goal of developing cleaner, low
carbon energy.
The Bedford Report releases regular market updates on the blossoming uranium
industry so investors can stay ahead of the crowd and make the best
investment decisions to maximize their returns. Take a few minutes to
register with us free at www.bedfordreport.com and get exclusive access to
our numerous analyst reports and industry newsletters.
With uranium prices surging, investors have turned their attention to the
uranium explorers and producers. Investors in uranium miners are banking on
rising earnings, as uranium prices rise, to provide value. In its most
recent earnings call, Uranium Resources posted a third quarter loss of 4
cents a share, compared with a loss of 4 cents a share in the year ago
period. The company recently signed a deal with industry heavyweight Cameco
for an exploratory property in south Texas. Denison Mines meanwhile posted a
third-quarter loss of 3 cents a share, which is an improvement over the 27
cents it lost a year earlier. | f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 7 http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/01/13/the-must-have-
The Must-Have Commodity for 2011
By Mike Pienciak | More Articles
January 13, 2011 | Comments (0)
It's not oil. It's not copper. (Although the fundamentals for both of those
do look good.)
In refined form, it is yellowish in color, but it's not gold either.
Ding-ding-ding! You guessed it: It's uranium.
An initial word of caution
First off, let's be clear that uranium, like any other commodity, it's
subject to violent price swings, as both real and projected shifts take
shape in the supply demand curve. In other words, you can make a mint or get
your face ripped off.
Just ask anyone who bought uranium-related stocks in early 2003, only to
watch the heavy metal's price leap twelvefold by mid 2007.
Conversely, those who boarded the uranium crazy train during May or June of
2007 -- when some "experts" were calling for prices above $200 per pound --
were no doubt soon choking on their stomachs as prices plummeted from the $
130s to the $80s in four short months.
Still reading? Good. Because even though uranium prices have risen
substantially since last summer, I believe opportunity yet exists for the
savvy investor.
Supply, meet demand
Hardly rare, uranium is more abundant than gold or silver and roughly as
common as tin and molybdenum. But that doesn't mean it's readily available
either.
For one, more than half of world production comes from 10 mines in six
countries, which means that political hitches and mining delays can, and do,
produce supply shocks.
Also, starting a new mine, or even expanding an existing one, is no quick
feat. Mining giant BHP (NYSE: BHP), for example, is looking at eleven years
of construction to expand its Olympic Dam operation (which, incidentally,
contains the world's largest known uranium deposit).
Then there's the favorable demand picture, summed up below:
•Against a worldwide total of 441 nuclear reactors currently in
operation, 63 new reactors are under construction, with another 156 on order
or planned.
•Existing mines currently furnish only about 75% of consumed uranium,
with the balance supplied by secondary sources such as decommissioned
warheads. Such sources are finite in nature, and a major Russian supply
program is slated to expire in 2013.
•No surprise, China is a heavy at the uranium table. The country plans
to increase its existing nuclear capacity roughly nine-fold by 2020, a
target that a government official recently indicated may be conservative.
•Finally, global electricity consumption is projected to nearly double
by 2030, yet nuclear power plants supplied only 14% of 2009's worldwide
electricity production. Translation: there's ample room for nuclear energy
production to grow.
Gaining exposure
So far, there's no exchange-traded fund or note linked to uranium futures.
But even if there was, I'm not sure I'd recommend it, as such products can
be savaged at the hands of the negative roll yield beast. That the leaves
the uranium producers as the most direct play on rising demand.
On that note, Canada-based Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) is the undisputed titan of the
industry -- and probably the most conservative play, too. With producing
mines in Canada and the U.S. and exploration properties in Australia (the
mother lode of global uranium deposits), Cameco is responsible for roughly
16% of the world's mined uranium production.
Impressively, the company turned in its most profitable year ever in 2009,
even as uranium prices were bottoming in the low $40s. No doubt that was due
in part to its practice of combining fixed- and market-based components in
its long-term sales contracts, along with floor-price protection. Such
astute financial management should help the company reach its goal of
doubling uranium production by 2018.
Of course, aggressive investors might hanker for greater upside than is
likely offered by Cameco. In that case, I refer you to Uranium One, traded
on the Toronto Stock Exchange and on the Pink Sheets in the U.S. With assets
in the U.S., Kazakhstan, and Australia, Uranium One is well on its way to
transforming itself from a top-ten uranium producer into a top-five
heavyweight.
Plus, the company boasts the lowest cash costs in the business. And 80% of
its pricing is market related, versus the 60% level that Cameco usually
targets.
But there are two key risks. One, growth has come at a price, namely, taking
on a majority shareholder in the form of ARMZ, the Russian company that in
part emerged out of the restructuring of Russia's nuclear industry. Can
Uranium One can remain shareholder-friendly given such an ownership
structure? Two, although Uranium One has been profitable at the EBITDA line
in recent years, it's posted some nasty net income losses. If that situation
doesn't turn around, a slumping share price could be the next big event.
Other options
For those who are interested in the higher-risk plays, in addition to
Uranium One, I'd take a close look at Denison Mines (AMEX: DNN) and Uranium
Resources (Nasdaq: URRE) among other intermediate and junior players.
For those who crave a cup of chamomile rather than a shot of espresso with
their yellowcake, there are a couple of paths you can take. One is to
diversify, such as investing in shares of diversified mining giants Rio
Tinto (NYSE: RIO) or BHP, both of which count mined uranium among their
revenue sources. Or, one could diversify within the uranium industry by
buying an ETF such as PowerShares Global Nuclear Energy or Market Vectors
Uranium & Nuclear Energy ETF.
A second strategy involves researching the companies that design,
manufacture, and service nuclear reactors. Two places to start are Shaw
Group (NYSE: SHAW) and Babcock & Wilcox (NYSE: BWC)
A final note of caution
As I said at the start, uranium prices can be volatile. An unexpected jump
in production or delays in new reactor start-up can have an outsized effect
on uranium prices -- and the prices of the stocks hitched to the heavy metal
's fate.
Moreover, not everyone shares my bullishness: Motley Fool Pro advisor Jeff
Fischer sold off his Cameco position about $9 ago on valuation concerns (the
stock currently trades at nearly 27 times 2011 estimated earnings).
Ultimately, though, I believe that if you prudently add to uranium-related
shares on major price drops, and wisely sell a little on the big run-ups,
you can do well in 2011 and beyond. | k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 8 added CXZ URRE on Monday
so far so good
URRE needs to do some catch up
those
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】 : http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/01/13/the-must-have- : The Must-Have Commodity for 2011 : By Mike Pienciak | More Articles : January 13, 2011 | Comments (0) : It's not oil. It's not copper. (Although the fundamentals for both of those : do look good.) : In refined form, it is yellowish in color, but it's not gold either. : Ding-ding-ding! You guessed it: It's uranium. : An initial word of caution : First off, let's be clear that uranium, like any other commodity, it's
| f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 9 CXZ is always crazy. Good today. Do not forget to take profit.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】 : added CXZ URRE on Monday : so far so good : URRE needs to do some catch up : : those
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 10 其实铀的价格涨得真的很快。
你引用那篇文章里面提到:到11月3日,UxC 2011年1月交割的期货价格为61.00美元/磅
。看看今天1月交割的期货价格为66.00美元。将近10%的涨幅。比金、银、铂金高很多
。而目前主力铀股的价格和11月初价格相当。
铜也有10%左右,现在金属板是铜领军。铜如果倒了,对版块影响很大。铜全靠中国增
长。
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】 : 上个月文章的中文版,仅供参考。 : 标题和我说得意思差不多,猫猫有总结。 : : tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Sat Dec 4 12:00:08 2010, 美东) 提到: : 这个人的意思是铀更 volatile ,原因是 : 1: supply高度集中于几家大公司,且中亚开采地区本身社会不稳定 : 2:demand:中国喜欢搞大单采购,短期对市场扰动很强 : 3:没有像gold oil silver这样完善的期货交易市场缓冲突涨突跌 : 所以07年暴涨暴跌都很瞬间 : 投资黄金石油不如投资铀!
| | | k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 11 $67 now
look forward to more rise next week
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 其实铀的价格涨得真的很快。 : 你引用那篇文章里面提到:到11月3日,UxC 2011年1月交割的期货价格为61.00美元/磅 : 。看看今天1月交割的期货价格为66.00美元。将近10%的涨幅。比金、银、铂金高很多 : 。而目前主力铀股的价格和11月初价格相当。 : 铜也有10%左右,现在金属板是铜领军。铜如果倒了,对版块影响很大。铜全靠中国增 : 长。
| a********h 发帖数: 819 | 12 which one has the most leverage?
I am think: URRE and CXZ
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】 : $67 now : look forward to more rise next week
| k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 13 yes I think so too, that's why I loaded these two last week
but it seems URZ is stronger
I guess it is because they just got the state permit, a major step forward
Maybe buying a basket of these junors is a better idea
they will all rise significantly with uranium price, some more than others
BTW: uranium reached 68
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】 : which one has the most leverage? : I am think: URRE and CXZ
| y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | 14 http://seekingalpha.com/article/246874-denison-mines-an-investm
Denison Mines: An Investment in Uranium's Growth Potential
31 comments | by: Michael Filloon January 17, 2011
| about: CCJ / DNN
Uranium is a difficult investment to make. Eric Bolling was on Fast Money a
while back and made the comment that only a handful of people on Earth truly
understand the mechanics of pricing with respect to this specific commodity
. Although I am not an expert, I have followed this sector for some time and
will be identifying stocks that look to be good or bad investments going
forward.
Most importantly, the price of uranium is still heading upward and until the
momentum starts moving in the opposite direction, I will recommend, at
least in the short term, to invest. There are currently two websites that
post uranium prices. The first is tradetech.com and the second is uxc.com.
Both web pages show a sustained upswing in uranium spot market prices for
the last few months.
At this time, I like Denison Mines (DNN) as an investment. Denison Mines is
currently debt free with $78 million in working capital. The company owns
two of the four permitted mills in North America. Denison is currently in
production, with uranium coming from three mines. They currently are
expanding production through projects located in Canada, Mongolia, Zambia,
and the United States.
Since the price of uranium oxide concentrate had dropped substantially from
its high of $137/lb., so has Denison's stock price. At the peak, Denison
traded at a little over $25 per share. It dropped to a low of $.56 in
December of 2008. Although it is difficult to know where the price of
uranium is going, many think the price/lb. could increase to $75 or $80 by
the end of this year. One thing is for sure, if the tightness in the spot
market persists, we will hit triple digits before you know it.
Since many of the uranium exploration and production companies are not
turning a profit, one way to value a company is the amount of the commodity
they are producing.
2010 Uranium Oxide Concentrate Production
•Cameco (CCJ) 22.0 million pounds
•Rio Tinto (RIO) 18.2 million pounds
•ARMZ+Uranium One (SXRZF.PK) 16.4 million pounds
•Areva (ARVCF.PK) 15.0 million pounds
•BHP Billiton (BHP) 6.2 million pounds
•Paladin (PALAF.PK) 5.6 million pounds
•Denison (DNN) 1.6 million pounds
In 2010, the top ten uranium miners produced 118.7 million pounds. This
accounted for 83% of the world's production. There are 441 reactors
operating, and they need 184 million pounds of uranium to operate. 58
reactors are currently under construction. 148 reactors are planned and 331
are proposed. It is important to remember that Russia currently provides 65%
of the world's uranium through the dismantling of their cold war nuclear
arsenal. They have decided not to renew this contract.
Since many of the big players like Cameco buy off of the spot market to
supply fuel for its customers when they are not producing enough to meet
contractual obligations of their legacy contracts, they may have to pay
significantly more on the spot market. These legacy contracts protect both
Cameco and their customers from the large shifts in pricing of uranium.
Cameco is able to do this with a very low cost of production. The reason
this is important to Denison is how Cameco does this. Cameco has a very low
cost of production when compared to other uranium producers. They accomplish
this by having sites where uranium concentration is very high. This
provides more uranium oxide per pound mined.
Denison recently had a world class size discovery at Wheeler River. They
currently own 60% and are the majority operator. This is the type of
discovery that can increase operating margins substantially. Denison has
made some substantial inroads in improving their operation. They have
increased overall resources internationally. Through 9-30-10 they had
improved revenue year over year by almost 100%. Their nine month loss over
the same time frame was reduced from a $.41 loss to a $.01 loss. Operating
cash flow for the first nine months of 2009 was a substantial loss, and this
was turned to the positive for 2010.
The uranium price has increased from approximately $40 per pound at the mid-
year of 2010 to $66 per pound in the first month of 2011. Most importantly
has been the decrease in operating costs. Denison's operating cost as of 9/
09 was $66.14 per pound and by 9/10, it was decreased to $38.22. For the
year of 2010, Denison earned $47.09/lb of uranium oxide. This number looks
to be increasing. Denison is estimating they will be able to increase their
uranium production from 1.7 million pounds this year to an estimated 10
million pounds of sustainable production by 2010.
Disclosure: I am long DNN, URG. Additional disclosure: Although I do not
currently own, I may trade URZ, URRE, UEC. | y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | 15 猫猫,现在是不是要搞核电设备了?
核电设备业:清洁能源之一 进入十年发展黄金期 荐2股
核电业进入十年高速发展期。作为清洁能源之一的核电业将进入十年快速发展时期
。根据政府规划,“十二五”期间核电新增装机容量3,000万千瓦,总装机容量2015将达
到4,300万千瓦,2020年至8,600万千瓦。获得政府支持的原因是:1)核电属於清洁能源,
符合国家炭减排目标,二氧化硫、二氧化碳等基本上是零排放。以首座 AP1000(由上气
为主导,联合哈动力共同吸收美国西屋技术的三代核电制式体系)三门核电一期为例,与
相同发电能力的百万千瓦级燃煤发电机组相比,可以每年减少1.149万吨二氧化硫、1.
909万吨氮氧化物和1345吨烟尘的排放量。2)核电运营成本便宜,因此所需上网电费与火
电成本相当,相对於其他新能源具有优势(见表1)。3)发电较为稳定,不像水、风、太阳
能等受气候因素影响。
核电设备厂商将率先受益。中国目前已运营核电站6 座,在建专案12个,规划和拟建
专案25个。核电建设周期通常为5年左右。因此要达到2020年核电装机容量8600万千瓦
的目标,2015年前将有众多核电项目开工。另外未来2~3年国内两代加和三代核电设备的
国产化率水准也将达到80%以上。因此,核电设备厂商,尤其是主机厂商将率先受益於核
电发展。以目前额定功率100万千瓦的单个核电机组为例,需投资120-130亿元,其中设备
投资占比51%,而设备中核岛、常规岛、辅机设备占比分别为 62%,23%和15%。根据我们
的测算,2010-2020年核电投资总额将为1,782亿元。
三大主机设备商中看好东方电气和上海电气,哈动力暂时落後。1)东方电气是目前
唯一手握三类核电制式(CPR1000二代改进型和AP1000、EPR三代制式)设备订单的厂家。
旗下东方重机三期工程於2010年7月完工,产能提升至年产6套100万千瓦级核岛主设备,
16台汽水分离再热器。在手订单方面,东方电气同样优势显着,目前核电在手订单400亿
元,二代加核岛主机设备市场份额达70%。预计2010年和2011年核电收入将增长100%,并
且由於技术的进步和规模经济的体现,核电毛利率水准已从2009年的-1.6%上升至2010年
上半年的17.6%,并将达到20%以上。
行业评级为优於大盘。我们给予核电行业优於大盘的评级,是由於1)2011年开始,核
电设备开始进入交货高峰期。2)随着国产化率的提升、国内企业技术成熟和规模化效应
显现,核电设备生产毛利率将逐步提升。三大核电主机设备商中,我们看好东方电气和上
海电气,因为两者的产能和手握订单较高,同时我们认为哈动力暂时落後其他两家同业,
但潜力较大,其核电收入将从2013年开始集中体现。(永丰金证券) | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 16 核电设备分两类,一类卖组装设备(可以理解为无技术的零件生产与组装,中国这样的
厂很多,三一重工就做这个),靠量产支撑业绩,以本地为市场才有物流成本优势。一
类卖核变技术,卖电转换优化技术,卖过后清洁技术,技术领先在俄国,美国,法国,
日本;市场可以是国际市场输出。
中国买了这么多矿,肯定是要用的。核电设备必然要跟上,第一类不缺,中国缺第二类
。但是上个月报道出来说中国现在是第三个拥有了二代核变技术的国家(俄国,日本)
,有意进入国际市场卖技术,不知道中国偷偷摸摸是否在其他核电技术上有了突破,如
果这样,那么对于美国核电能股票(注意不是铀矿股)是竞争关系(利空)。
所以我觉得还是美股铀矿比美股核电好。
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】 : 猫猫,现在是不是要搞核电设备了? : 核电设备业:清洁能源之一 进入十年发展黄金期 荐2股 : 核电业进入十年高速发展期。作为清洁能源之一的核电业将进入十年快速发展时期 : 。根据政府规划,“十二五”期间核电新增装机容量3,000万千瓦,总装机容量2015将达 : 到4,300万千瓦,2020年至8,600万千瓦。获得政府支持的原因是:1)核电属於清洁能源, : 符合国家炭减排目标,二氧化硫、二氧化碳等基本上是零排放。以首座 AP1000(由上气 : 为主导,联合哈动力共同吸收美国西屋技术的三代核电制式体系)三门核电一期为例,与 : 相同发电能力的百万千瓦级燃煤发电机组相比,可以每年减少1.149万吨二氧化硫、1. : 909万吨氮氧化物和1345吨烟尘的排放量。2)核电运营成本便宜,因此所需上网电费与火 : 电成本相当,相对於其他新能源具有优势(见表1)。3)发电较为稳定,不像水、风、太阳
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 17 话说 U价 这个月从62涨到69了。去年11月初股价爆发的时候U价才54.
我目前长线资金只剩 CCJ 和 sina了。
CCJ,抄底首选啊。 | a********h 发帖数: 819 | 18 URRE is dropping like a stone even when uranium prices steadily go up.
I do like URRE, good leverage to uranium prices.
maybe will add some, any input?
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 话说 U价 这个月从62涨到69了。去年11月初股价爆发的时候U价才54. : 我目前长线资金只剩 CCJ 和 sina了。 : CCJ,抄底首选啊。
| a********h 发帖数: 819 | 19 URRE is dropping like a stone even when uranium prices steadily go up.
I do like URRE, good leverage to uranium prices.
maybe will add some, any input guys?
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 话说 U价 这个月从62涨到69了。去年11月初股价爆发的时候U价才54. : 我目前长线资金只剩 CCJ 和 sina了。 : CCJ,抄底首选啊。
| k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 20 uranium price is $70 now
http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/u/u.asp
have no idea why URRE dropped like this
they must got a lot inquiries from shareholders so they decided to have a
conference call and webcast on 02/14
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Uranium-Resources-Announces-bw-37
I sold half of my URRE at 3.12 and all of my URZ at 4.54 last week when
I thought they would have been going down with the main market. Bought
those half of URRE shares back today at 2.53. Still have no idea where
they will move in short term. They are still very bullish in long term
IMO.
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】 : URRE is dropping like a stone even when uranium prices steadily go up. : I do like URRE, good leverage to uranium prices. : maybe will add some, any input guys?
| | | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 21 如果是吃定 铀价格 高 这个概念的话,你选股的时候要看看 哪些公司确实是有矿的储
备。URRE没注意过,所以没啥input。
还有一点关于timing的就是,大盘和金属板块毕竟是和个股有实质性联系的(具体的一
项比如说通过ETF,像CCJ是编在有些ETF index里面的),最稳妥的办法就是等等等一
番暴跌后,如果回头一看铀价格还是很高(比对其他矿价走势),你就买着CCJ不动,
那分红等上涨,相信beat 大盘业绩还是很有戏的。
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】 : URRE is dropping like a stone even when uranium prices steadily go up. : I do like URRE, good leverage to uranium prices. : maybe will add some, any input guys?
| e*n 发帖数: 1511 | 22 nice
URZ很牛
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】 : uranium price is $70 now : http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/u/u.asp : have no idea why URRE dropped like this : they must got a lot inquiries from shareholders so they decided to have a : conference call and webcast on 02/14 : http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Uranium-Resources-Announces-bw-37 : I sold half of my URRE at 3.12 and all of my URZ at 4.54 last week when : I thought they would have been going down with the main market. Bought : those half of URRE shares back today at 2.53. Still have no idea where : they will move in short term. They are still very bullish in long term
| f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 23 CCJ is very strong.
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 如果是吃定 铀价格 高 这个概念的话,你选股的时候要看看 哪些公司确实是有矿的储 : 备。URRE没注意过,所以没啥input。 : 还有一点关于timing的就是,大盘和金属板块毕竟是和个股有实质性联系的(具体的一 : 项比如说通过ETF,像CCJ是编在有些ETF index里面的),最稳妥的办法就是等等等一 : 番暴跌后,如果回头一看铀价格还是很高(比对其他矿价走势),你就买着CCJ不动, : 那分红等上涨,相信beat 大盘业绩还是很有戏的。
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 24 牛X啊
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】 : CCJ is very strong.
| f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 25 I bot DNN today.
CXZ URZ URRE URG are up too.
Looks like U stocks are start again.
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 牛X啊
| k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 26 U spot price reaches $72
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】 : I bot DNN today. : CXZ URZ URRE URG are up too. : Looks like U stocks are start again.
| f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 27 crazy. keep up.
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】 : I bot DNN today. : CXZ URZ URRE URG are up too. : Looks like U stocks are start again.
| M***m 发帖数: 762 | 28 still up...
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】 : crazy. keep up.
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 29 更新一下 最近的交割U价 73 没有回调迹象
买了CCJ的同志们 hold住哦,没买的等下次抄底吧。 今天ER。 | f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 30 U bet ER with option protection?
What do do is good for long term at ER?
【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: wavelets01 (信箱), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 油工你不是说csco,nok都是买入死捂的吗?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Feb 9 22:27:51 2011, 美东)
油工,长期hold的,如果碰到ER,hedge 一下,或者减仓但不抛光。
不然就是波段做法了。
如果我理解对了,油工想说的是这次er的风险比较大,但长期仍然看好,对巴? | | | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 31 CCJ没买option ,买的是股票。CCJ option premium太高。
谈不上赌ER,去年37-38买了之后就没动过,11月到现在多少人喊大盘/金属/金银到顶
了,我都没动,因为U价一直再涨。只要U价坚挺,我就不抛。U价坚挺,ER没什么大的
风险。如果ER miss暴跌,正好抄底。
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】 : U bet ER with option protection? : What do do is good for long term at ER? : 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】 : 发信人: wavelets01 (信箱), 信区: Stock : 标 题: Re: 油工你不是说csco,nok都是买入死捂的吗? : 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Feb 9 22:27:51 2011, 美东) : 油工,长期hold的,如果碰到ER,hedge 一下,或者减仓但不抛光。 : 不然就是波段做法了。 : 如果我理解对了,油工想说的是这次er的风险比较大,但长期仍然看好,对巴?
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 32 现在回顾从11月初到现在,U还是很猛的,和金、银、铜相比。
从今年1月到现在,道指涨了4.69%,金、银、铜都没有跑赢大盘。
铝(AA)和U(CCJ)跑赢大盘了一个百分点以上。 | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 33 http://stock.hexun.com/2011-01-22/126960381.html
上海电气建成百万千瓦级核岛主设备
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 核电设备分两类,一类卖组装设备(可以理解为无技术的零件生产与组装,中国这样的 : 厂很多,三一重工就做这个),靠量产支撑业绩,以本地为市场才有物流成本优势。一 : 类卖核变技术,卖电转换优化技术,卖过后清洁技术,技术领先在俄国,美国,法国, : 日本;市场可以是国际市场输出。 : 中国买了这么多矿,肯定是要用的。核电设备必然要跟上,第一类不缺,中国缺第二类 : 。但是上个月报道出来说中国现在是第三个拥有了二代核变技术的国家(俄国,日本) : ,有意进入国际市场卖技术,不知道中国偷偷摸摸是否在其他核电技术上有了突破,如 : 果这样,那么对于美国核电能股票(注意不是铀矿股)是竞争关系(利空)。 : 所以我觉得还是美股铀矿比美股核电好。
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 34 U价本周出现连续两日下降,但幅度不大。今日回升到71 | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 35 今天 U价下跌幅度很大 68.5了
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : U价本周出现连续两日下降,但幅度不大。今日回升到71
| v*****a 发帖数: 353 | 36 铀股还应该hold 么?
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 今天 U价下跌幅度很大 68.5了
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 37 小盘股不太清楚。
CCJ的话如果你成本低,就hold吧,通胀概念现在又起来了,材料金属跌不到哪里去(
当然 U价要经常看)
【在 v*****a 的大作中提到】 : 铀股还应该hold 么?
| v*****a 发帖数: 353 | 38 多谢。
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 小盘股不太清楚。 : CCJ的话如果你成本低,就hold吧,通胀概念现在又起来了,材料金属跌不到哪里去( : 当然 U价要经常看)
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 39 CCJ跌破支撑线的话 就抛掉吧。
A股那边,两会题材 核也是一个热点,
不过还有一段时间,到时候也可以在load做波段。
【在 v*****a 的大作中提到】 : 多谢。
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 40 今天U价格没有反弹,本月U价跌幅很大,73 到 68.5.做多者要小心了
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : CCJ跌破支撑线的话 就抛掉吧。 : A股那边,两会题材 核也是一个热点, : 不过还有一段时间,到时候也可以在load做波段。
| | | w*****d 发帖数: 1172 | | f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | | w*****d 发帖数: 1172 | | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 44 U价格继续下跌
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 今天U价格没有反弹,本月U价跌幅很大,73 到 68.5.做多者要小心了
| f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 45 ALL U stocks up with DOW. It's better just play short term.
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : U价格继续下跌
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | | a********h 发帖数: 819 | 47 uranium sector hasn't followed oil/gas at all.
need some patience.
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : U价最近上下起伏很大。
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 48 你这个价怎么和我查到的不同,我这里是67,相当于11月中旬的价格。对应到股价,好
像很接近。你看看。
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/other/uranium_quotes_glo
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】 : uranium price is $70 now : http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/u/u.asp : have no idea why URRE dropped like this : they must got a lot inquiries from shareholders so they decided to have a : conference call and webcast on 02/14 : http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Uranium-Resources-Announces-bw-37 : I sold half of my URRE at 3.12 and all of my URZ at 4.54 last week when : I thought they would have been going down with the main market. Bought : those half of URRE shares back today at 2.53. Still have no idea where : they will move in short term. They are still very bullish in long term
| f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 49 It's 67 now. I think it will up. Bot URG.
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 你这个价怎么和我查到的不同,我这里是67,相当于11月中旬的价格。对应到股价,好 : 像很接近。你看看。 : http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/other/uranium_quotes_glo
| c********g 发帖数: 1106 | 50 猫猫有没有网站可以对commodity价格作简单的技术分析,看看均线支撑啥的?
你这个价怎么和我查到的不同,我这里是67,相当于11月中旬的价格。对应到股价,好
像很接近。你看看。
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/other/uranium_quotes_glo
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 你这个价怎么和我查到的不同,我这里是67,相当于11月中旬的价格。对应到股价,好 : 像很接近。你看看。 : http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/other/uranium_quotes_glo
| | | y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | 51 更新一下铀价。3.11后跌到50,现在又回到61了。 | y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | 52 http://news.wenxuecity.com/messages/201103/news-gb2312-1318286.
美报称中国五年建50座核反应堆 超全球其他国家总和
文章来源: 新华网 于 2011-03-27 10:56:50 给 新华网 发送悄悄话
敬请注意:新闻取自各大新闻媒体,新闻内容并不代表本网立场!
美报称中国五年建50座核反应堆 超全球其他国家总和 新华网
【美国《纽约时报》3月25日文章】题:一种激进的反应堆(作者基思·布拉德舍)
日本福岛核电站的工程师正在千方百计阻止核燃料棒熔化,而与此同时,中国正在
建立一种从根本上不同类型的核反应堆。一些专家认为,这可以为核能提供一种更为安
全的选择。
中国式核反应堆
传统核燃料棒每根含存近400磅的铀,日本正出现核泄漏的燃料棒就是这种。中国
新建的核反应堆则不一样,将会使用无数台球大小的燃料球,每个燃料球都包裹了石墨
保护层。
保护层能调节核反应的步伐,如果核电站遇到紧急情况需要关闭,可以确保核反应
自行缓慢停止,从而避免熔毁。
中国的反应堆将会由非爆炸性状的氦气进行冷却,而不是靠水 散热是日本福岛核
电站受损反应堆面临的关键问题。和靠水冷却的反应堆不同,中国反应堆在即使没有冷
却剂的情况下也能自行逐步散热。
如果能证明建立这两座新核电站的方案切实可行,中国计划在未来几年内加建几十
座。
这种新式反应堆采取的是球形燃料反应堆技术。其实这也不算新技术。德国、南非
和美国都对这种技术进行过实验,但因技术问题或缺乏资金而放弃。
不过,和其他替代能源领域(如太阳能板和风力涡轮机) 样,中国在这种下一代
能源领域中正扮演着领头羊的角色。政府为两台球形燃料反应堆支付所有研发费用,并
会承担30%的建造费用。
尽管日本出现核危机,中国仍计划在未来5年内兴建50座核反应堆 这比全球其他国
家的总和还要多。这些反应堆中大部分将采取更为传统的设计。
如果球形燃料方案如预料中好,且具有成本效率,中国希望最终能更大规模地推广
这种技术,令核能变得更安全,更可行。毕竟中国是世界上经济发展速度最快的国家,
要养活十几亿人口。
危险性小一点
西方环保分子对球形燃料反应堆技术的安全性看法不一。
美国自然资源保护委品会资深核能科学家托马斯·B·科克伦说,这种反应堆可能
比现在核电站的危险性要小一点,对环境的伤害不及燃煤发电厂。
科克伦说:“但我们必须明白:核电站安全指的不仅是设计上的功能,还有对安全
意识的培养。”
监管中国新反应堆建设的负责人说,工程师受过专门培训,利用测试反应堆模拟装
置进行核电站高度电脑化控制的训练。模拟装置已经在北京附近运行了 10年,没有出
过意外。
不过,绿色和平组织反对建造球形燃料反应堆。该组织质疑一切核技术是否能保证
真正的安全。绿色和平组织一位在德国的核技术专家海因茨·斯米塔尔说,用石墨包裹
铀燃料将会大大增加需要后期处理的放射性废料数量。
不过他说,这种废料每吨所含放射性远小于废弃铀燃料棒。后者是福岛核电站遇到
的首要麻烦。
中国正在贫瘠的西部为高辐射水平核废料(如常规燃料棒)建一个存放处。不过放
射性低得多的球形燃料不需要这种专门的存放空间。中国计划先把用过的球形燃料放在
核电站,然后转移到反应堆附近的低辐射水平核废料处理点。
减少对煤的依赖
不管外界如何担心中国的核企图,从环境成本收益分析来看,至少包含这么一个正
面因素:更多核电站能让中国减少对煤炭及其他燃料的极大依赖 正是这些燃料令中国
成为世界上最大的温室气体排放国。
设在巴黎的国际能源机构首席中国问题专家乔纳森·辛顿说:“在从现在以煤为主
的发电形式转移到另一形式的全球性问题上,中国成为我们选择的典型。核是煤的一种
必不可少的替代。从中长期来看,这是唯一的可以以相似规模提供同样质量电力的选择
。”
中国最大电力公司、国有的华能集团现在的目标是,通过建造两座球形燃料反应堆
证明这种技术可以大规模地应用于商业。每座反应堆可以满足一个拥有 7.5万到10万人
的美国城市居民电力所需。
预计这两座反应堆将会在4年内投入使用。
麻省理工学院一位专攻球形燃料反应堆的核能工程师安德鲁·卡达克说:“中国有
决心建造(球形燃料反应堆)并证明这种技术的可行性,而且承诺会完成这项工程。在
美国,我们过去不能作出如此承诺,现在也不行。” | y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | 53 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 16 18:13:00 2010, 美东) 提到:
RT
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 16 18:24:25 2010, 美东) 提到:
发信人: tanmaomao (坛猫猫), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 铀价格走势图 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 16 18:23:29 2010, 美东)
Ux U3O8 Price indicator is the longest-running weekly uranium price series,
used by the industry in sales contracts
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Wed Nov 17 09:34:37 2010, 美东) 提到:
发信人: tanmaomao (坛猫猫), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: Re: Uranium/Nuclear power
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov 17 09:33:53 2010, 美东)
铀的问题是,储量充足,不可能出现长期under supply的情况,所以决定价格的关键是
库存投放量,年初价格bottom的原因就是中亚某国决定向市场释放一批铀库存
2007铀价格猛涨之后,导致市场库存过剩。指望中国和印度的电力市场来消化这部分库
存。中国目前的政策是铀矿供给立足国内自给自足。目前没有向国际铀市场购买的意向。
所以我的结论是这波铀价格上涨仅仅是QE2的结果。无关供需。
-----------------------
“江西彭泽核电站可能近期将获得批准。”10月14日,中电投江西核电公司一位人士告
诉本报记者,“我们在尽一切力量,争取成为国内第一家内陆核电站。”
而为了配合彭泽核电站未来的建设及运营,中电投甚至已经将其旗下江西核电公司
从省会南昌搬迁至核电站所在的九江 市。事实上,与江西彭泽比拼速度的,还有湖
南桃花江核电站以及湖北咸宁大畈核电站。
据一位接近国家能源局的人士透露,上述三家核电站已经被确定为中国首批内陆核
电,很可能将于今年底或明年初获得批文,从而正式拉开我国内陆核电站建设的序幕。
“2013年之后,中国的内陆核电将进入批量化生产和建设阶段。”国家能源局副局长孙
勤曾对外表示。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
n202 (做猪就要做肥猪) 于 (Wed Nov 17 09:53:24 2010, 美东) 提到:
除了广西红花,哪里还有矿呢?
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Wed Nov 17 09:57:39 2010, 美东) 提到:
有没有矿是次要问题,够不够自己用时主要问题。康日新说够用了。
康日新:发展核能,铀不成问题
2009-7-10 8:59:42
中国核工业集团公司总经理康日新在7月4日“多元能源”的分组讨论时说,中国的
天然铀储量很大,近三、四年发现的天然铀可以用到2020年,或者说用更长时间也没有
问题。因为中国目前的核电还很少,所以,中国的天然铀资源其实没有用多少。
康日新向与会者介绍说,中国目前对于公开的核电装机组发展规划2020年是4000万
千瓦,在建1800万千瓦,有关部门现在对这个发电量在重新制定,具体数量还没有确定
出来。
关于核燃料的供应,康日新说,目前我国采取了三个措施,首先加大了中国国内的
铀勘探力度。中国大陆的面积很大,我们过去的勘探深度只有500 米,现在由于采取了
一些有效的新的勘探技术,已经大大加快了深度。比如过去在某一个铀矿上可能开发量
只有两万吨,现在可以深入到1000米以下,就会发现原来勘探量在两万吨,有可能会达
到四万吨,甚至六万吨,使中国的铀资源的存储量比过去提高到了几倍,现在国内每年
发现的铀储量是使用量的6倍—8倍。也就是说我们发现铀的量比使用量要多得多。
其次,是在国际市场上购买一些铀资源、铀矿,加大国际间的天然铀开采合作。目
前中国和国外其他公司三年前就在在约旦开了第一个铀矿,首批700 吨铀资源将在2010
年运回国内。此外,还有包括哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚、俄罗斯等6个国家,8个勘探队
在进行国际间的勘探开采合作。
通过这些措施,保证了中国对核
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Wed Nov 17 09:57:48 2010, 美东) 提到:
Uranium stocks:
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=341&t=ACAS,AU,BBL,BHP,CCJ,CXZ
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Wed Nov 17 10:01:56 2010, 美东) 提到:
铀矿 和 核能是两个板块
炒点不一样
铀矿股炒铀矿价格,看第一大矿CCJ足以,占ETF最大权重。前两天EFT涨超过10%是
因为CCJ猛涨
核能股炒技术输出,看销售订单,同时也收铀矿价格影响。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Wed Nov 17 10:03:48 2010, 美东) 提到:
URRE UEC up again.
URZ USU URG follow.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Wed Nov 17 10:07:37 2010, 美东) 提到:
Bot USU.
USEC Offers Investors the Best Value in the Coal & Consumable Fuels Industry
(USU, PCX, ICO, ACI, ANR)
Wednesday 11/10/2010 6:15 AM ET - Comtex Smartrend(r)
Related Companies
Symbol Last %Chg
USU 5.38 1.32%
As of 10:06 AM ET 11/17/10
Below are the top five companies in the Coal & Consumable Fuels industry as
measured by the price to book ratio. Often companies with the lowest ratio
present the greatest value to investors.
USEC (NYSE:USU) has a price to book ratio of 0.5x based on a current price
of $5.5 and a book value per share of $11.22.
Patriot Coal (NYSE:PCX) has a price to book ratio of 1.5x based on a current
price of $15.02 and a book value per share of $9.98.
International Coal (NYSE:ICO) has a price to book ratio of 1.7x based on a
current price of $6.3 and a book value per share of $3.69.
Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) has a price to book ratio of 2.2x based on a current
price of $28.51 and a book value per share of $13.24.
Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR) has a price to book ratio of 2.2x based
on a current price of $47.45 and a book value per share of $21.69.
SmarTrend currently has shares of International Coal in an Uptrend and
issued the Uptrend alert on June 21, 2010 at $4.42. The stock has risen 42.7
% since the Uptrend alert was issued.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Wed Nov 17 10:12:24 2010, 美东) 提到:
Uranium Energy Corp Begins Production at Palangana ISR Project
Wednesday 11/17/2010 8:00 AM ET - Pr Newswire
Related Companies
Symbol Last %Chg
UEC 5.18 6.15%
As of 10:11 AM ET 11/17/10
UEC launches first new ISR uranium mine in U.S. in 5 years
First production area comes on-line in South Texas below budget and on
schedule
NYSE Amex Equities Exchange Symbol - UEC
Uranium Energy Corp (NYSE AMEX: UEC; the "Company") is pleased to announce
that the Company has started uranium production using in-situ recovery (ISR)
methods at the Palangana Project in South Texas.
Phase I of three separate development phases of the wellfield at Production
Area 1 (PAA-1) is 100% complete, with more than 45 injection wells and
production wells drilled, cased and tested. The Company is very pleased with
the water volume that each well has yielded during the testing phase. Now,
gaseous oxygen and carbon dioxide are being added to the circulating ground
water, which has activated the mining process of dissolving the uranium from
surrounding sandstones.
Amir Adnani, President and CEO, stated, "We are exceedingly proud that
Palangana is the first new ISR uranium mine to achieve production in the U.S
. in over 5 years. Kudos are due to our many professionals who have been
working very hard to reach this important milestone. Palangana is one of the
Company's four projects in South Texas. This initial production is really
just the first step in the Company's regional strategy of greatly expanding
resources and production in the re-emerging South Texas Uranium Belt, with
the next project, the nearby Goliad ISR project, anticipated to join
Palangana as a producing asset next year."
Harry Anthony, Chief Operating Officer, added, "The next milestone will be
the start of regular deliveries of uranium-loaded resin beads to our Hobson
processing plant, scheduled to commence before month-end. Shortly thereafter
, we will be marketing and delivering yellowcake, the Company's valuable
final product. Hobson is a newly refurbished, state-of-the-art processing
plant, and anchors the Company's South Texas regional strategy with up to 3.
0 million pounds of annual capacity."
Phase 1 of the PAA-1 wellfield is in operation with 30 injection wells and
15 production wells on-line, with each being brought gradually up to maximum
flow rates of approximately 50 gallons per minute.
Phases II and III of the PAA-1 wellfield each will contain 45 production and
injection wells. All Phase II wells have been completed, and are targeted
to commence mining in the first quarter of 2011. Installation of Phase III
wells is underway with three rigs actively casing and then completing each
well. The Company is scheduling these wells to come on-line and to start
production during the second quarter of 2011. The average depth of wells
throughout the PAA-1 wellfield is 450 feet.
Uranium Market
The spot uranium price continues to rise, presently at $59.50/lb. U3O8, up
from a base set earlier this year just above $40/lb. The term or contract
price is $62.00/lb. U3O8. Both prices are quotes from Ux Consulting, an
industry price-publishing source. Uranium Energy Corp, as a new uranium-
producing company, is ideally positioned with no debt and 100%-unhedged
production.
About In-Situ Recovery (ISR) Mining
Uranium Energy Corp is employing in-situ recovery or ISR mining technology
at the Palangana uranium project. ISR is injected-solution mining that
reverses the natural process that deposited the uranium in the sandstones.
On-site ground water is being fortified with gaseous oxygen and introduced
to the uranium ore body through a pattern of injection wells. The solution
dissolves the uranium from the sandstone host.
The uranium-bearing solution is brought back to surface through production
wells where the uranium is concentrated on resin beads for trucking to the
Company's Hobson processing plant to be concentrated further and dried into
yellowcake for market. This pattern of injection and recovery wells, plus
surrounding monitor wells that serve as a safeguard, is called a wellfield.
For more information on ISR mining, visit www.uraniumenergy.com and view the
animated video noted on the home page.
About Uranium Energy Corp
Uranium Energy Corp is a U.S.-based uranium production, development and
exploration company. The Company's fully licensed and permitted Hobson
processing facility is central to all of its projects in South Texas,
including the Palangana in-situ recovery project, which has just initiated
first production, and the Goliad in-situ recovery project which is in the
final stages of mine permitting for production. The Company's operations are
managed by professionals with a recognized profile for excellence in their
industry, a profile based on many decades of hands-on experience in the key
facets of uranium exploration, development and mining.
Stock Exchange Information: NYSE-AMEX: UEC Frankfurt Stock Exchange Symbol:
U6Z WKN: AØJDRR ISN: US916896103
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Wed Nov 17 11:46:34 2010, 美东) 提到:
Wait UEC to break out.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 23 14:56:29 2010, 美东) 提到:
有兴趣炒铀股的,这个网站不错,可以看看
http://www.uxc.com/products/uxw_overview.aspx
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Tue Nov 23 15:08:29 2010, 美东) 提到:
UEC 低开高走。
CORRECT(11/19):Uranium Energy CEO:Prices Headed Higher With Demand
Monday 11/22/2010 4:58 PM ET - Dow Jones News
Related Companies
Symbol Last %Chg
UEC 5.95 0.00%
As of 3:06 PM ET 11/23/10
("Uranium Energy CEO: Uranium Prices Headed Higher With Demand" published at
6:18 p.m. EST Friday and repeated at 7:37 a.m. EST incorrectly stated
global uranium consumption in the second paragraph. The correct version
follows.)
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC) Chief Executive Amir Adnani
expects prices for the radioactive metal to continue rising on tighter
supplies over the next few years amid growing demand from the nuclear-power
sector.
"Mine production for uranium is basically only enough to meet two-thirds of
current demand," or about 125 million pounds a year, Chief Executive Amir
Adnani said. "Over the next two to three years, you are going to have a very
tight uranium market on the supply side," which is pushing prices higher.
On the spot market, uranium is going for about $60 a pound, a nearly 40%
gain since lows seen in the past six months, Adnani said in interview Friday
.
In the post-Cold War era, secondary sources of the metal, such as from
decommissioning Russian nuclear weapons, became a significant supply for the
power industry. "That runs out in 2013," Adnani said.
The U.S. is the largest consumer of uranium, with 104 nuclear power reactors
that require 55 million pounds a year. But with the country's uranium
production at just 3.5 million pounds, most of the needed supply is imported
. "There is more dependence on foreign uranium than there is on foreign oil,
" Adnani said.
New nuclear development is stinted in the U.S. by lengthy licensing
processes and faltering desire to invest billions due to low prices for
natural gas, another fuel source that tends to drive market prices for power
.
However, nuclear-power generation is growing at a fast clip overseas, which
is driving uranium demand. China is constructing 25 reactors while the
United Arab Emirates is also building nuclear generation.
The Austin, Texas-based company is in a position to cash in on these trends
since it began production at its first uranium mine this week. The Palangana
project in South Texas, which is expected to produce 400,000 pounds of
uranium in 2011, is "the only new uranium mine to go into production in the
world this year," Adnani said. Uranium Energy will also bring online another
mine at its Goliad project, also in Texas, next year.
"Our target in the next 12 to 15 months on the back of these projects is to
achieve one million pounds per year of production," Adnani said.
The entire production is unhedged as the company hopes to benefit from
rising uranium prices before entering into long-term contracts with
utilities.
The company estimates production costs at about $14 to $15 a pound thanks to
efficient mining techniques, compared to an industry where costs can be as
high as $30 to $40 a pound, Adnani said.
Based on those cost projections, Adnani expects the company to turn
profitable once production reaches one million pounds.
On Friday, Uranium Energy shares rose 4.1% to $6.04.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Tue Nov 23 15:10:39 2010, 美东) 提到:
urre +12%
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Mitlm (木头) 于 (Tue Nov 23 15:14:57 2010, 美东) 提到:
URZ as well.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Tue Nov 23 15:18:38 2010, 美东) 提到:
图长的都一样,呵呵。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Mitlm (木头) 于 (Tue Nov 23 15:25:25 2010, 美东) 提到:
but URA not good.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 23 15:25:42 2010, 美东) 提到:
奇怪啊,CCJ 没有涨啊。
CCJ可是绝对的版块主力,控制的矿山储量占全球supply一半以上啊
有问题啊!?
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Tue Nov 23 15:29:52 2010, 美东) 提到:
是不是和军工关系不紧?太大不好炒?
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 23 15:35:51 2010, 美东) 提到:
和军工没啥关系。两类股票,一类是铀矿,一类是核能。核能没反应。
纯铀矿的三个股,股价与铀期货价格成正比,两个小的都彪了,就这个CCJ大的没动。
不想那么多了,饥渴难耐,刚才抄了两首CCJ的call
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Wed Nov 24 09:53:39 2010, 美东) 提到:
Looks good all today. CCJ DNN URRE URG URZ
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=ACAS,AU,BBL,BHP,CCJ,CXZ,DNN,FRG
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Wed Nov 24 13:16:58 2010, 美东) 提到:
How to Benefit From Expected Bull Market in Uranium
CCJ / MNRZF.PK / SXRZF.PK / URG
http://seekingalpha.com/article/237564-how-to-benefit-from-expe
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
stlstl (射天狼) 于 (Wed Nov 24 16:41:46 2010, 美东) 提到:
买点很好啊
我也屯了点,踅摸着哪天被CCJ还是哪家买了就好。
Industry
as
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Fri Nov 26 21:37:11 2010, 美东) 提到:
URRE DNN URG UEC今天表现不错:
URRE 1:02PM EST 3.18 0.34 11.97%
DNN 1:35PM EST 3.17 0.23 7.82%
URZ 12:59PM EST 3.85 0.23 6.35%
UEC 12:59PM EST 6.40 0.32 5.26%
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
kafen (Tiffany & Co) 于 (Fri Nov 26 21:55:54 2010, 美东) 提到:
canadian juniors start making strides now
these are real penny stocks
UNR ESO
I am NOT holding these but people who like to speculate may like them
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Fri Nov 26 22:36:32 2010, 美东) 提到:
几分钱的股票也不错啊,这两个很强。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Mon Nov 29 09:27:23 2010, 美东) 提到:
Will Canadian-Based Uranium Stocks Keep Surging?
Friday 11/26/2010 8:46 AM ET - Marketwire
Uranium stocks have been surging as of late. Last month Uranium posted a 10%
gain in just one week to around $52 per pound. According to the Global X
Uranium ETF which was starter trading earlier this month, uranium provides
about 16% of the world's electricity. Uranium bulls believe that the
radioactive element is a clean resource alternative for electric generation.
One pound of uranium can generate as much energy as 20,000 pounds of coal,
and leaves behind a fraction of the carbon footprint. The Bedford Report
examines the emerging Uranium Industry and provides research reports on
Uranium One, Inc. (TSX: UUU) and Denison Mines Corporation (TSX: DML).
Access to the full company reports can be found at:
www.bedfordreport.com/2010-11-UUU
www.bedfordreport.com/2010-11-DML
Uranium is a primary component in the production of nuclear energy. A
massive demand increase in nuclear energy is expected in future years with
the Nuclear Energy Agency estimating that the number of nuclear reactors to
generate electricity around the world is expected to grow by over 130
percent over the next 40 years. At the moment China operates 11 reactors,
and has 28 under construction; in the U.S., 104 are in operation.
The Bedford Report releases regular market updates on the blossoming uranium
industry so investors can stay ahead of the crowd and make the best
investment decisions to maximize their returns. Take a few minutes to
register with us free at www.bedfordreport.com and get exclusive access to
our numerous analyst reports and industry newsletters.
With uranium prices surging, investors have turned their attention to the
uranium miners. Investors in uranium miners are banking on rising earnings,
as uranium prices rise, to provide value. Earlier this month Dennison Mines
posted a third-quarter loss of 3 cents a share, which is an improvement over
the 27 cents it lost a year earlier.
Shares of Canadian-based Uranium One surged nearly 10% yesterday after the
company announced that it had received approval from the US Nuclear
Regulatory Commission to proceed with its deal to sell a controlling stake
in itself to a Russian state-owned miner.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Mon Nov 29 09:57:42 2010, 美东) 提到:
URRE USU 今天还可以,其他的要调整了.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Mon Nov 29 10:26:30 2010, 美东) 提到:
USU今天没有突破5.9.
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=341&t=USU
USU our Free Stock Pick for Mon Nov 29th 2010
Sunday 11/28/2010 7:38 PM ET - Advicetrade
Related Companies
Symbol Last %Chg
USU 5.87 -0.17%
As of 10:22 AM ET 11/29/10
by Sinisa Persich, www.TraderHR.com an AdviceTrade.com publication
USEC Inc. (USU), a leading supplier of enriched uranium, was hit hard in May
after reporting a wider loss than expected. The stock lost one-third of its
value in less than a month.
After reaching a bottom at $3.90 in May, the stock consolidated in an
ascending triangle pattern whose upper trend line -- a key resistance level
at $5.90 -- appears ready to be broken. With uranium prices continuing to
rise, up nearly 20% in last few weeks, USU could easily reach its April
highs around $6.40.
Preferred entry (buy stop) price is at $5.95, with a stop loss at $5.70. See
our Trading Rules page for more detail.
Sinisa Persich is a technical analyst and author of TraderHR (www.traderhr.
com), featuring his daily, small-cap, swing trade set-ups for yielding
profits in both up and down markets. Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial!
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Mon Nov 29 10:41:26 2010, 美东) 提到:
URRE +11%, URZ跟随,别的也开始止跌转升.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
krobin (有缘无份) 于 (Mon Nov 29 13:09:52 2010, 美东) 提到:
创新高的股票就是狠
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 30 11:05:48 2010, 美东) 提到:
update the price
铀价继续上涨,从月初的52涨到现在的61了
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 30 11:19:32 2010, 美东) 提到:
铀价上涨,所以采矿类exploration公司比下游做核能的公司牛很多。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Tue Nov 30 11:25:46 2010, 美东) 提到:
都有啥公司?我在机场,不方便查。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 30 11:33:52 2010, 美东) 提到:
做开采供矿的有CCJ URRE UEC USU URZ.后面4个是小盘股
URRE UEC涨的猛。
我前两天做多CCJ,现在还没啥油水。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 30 11:38:34 2010, 美东) 提到:
美股市场上的CCJ最近有些怪异,和加拿大市场上同一个股票跌幅不是很一致,美股这
边跌的比较多,加拿大那边已经回到月初高点了。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Tue Nov 30 12:02:44 2010, 美东) 提到:
我说我的urre. Uec咋这么猛呢?usu卖早了,没再买回来。多谢。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Tue Nov 30 12:11:35 2010, 美东) 提到:
Ccj也会涨上去的,大股涨得慢,你做option 的话比小股票要好。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Wed Dec 1 03:13:56 2010, 美东) 提到:
中国核电计划将推动全球铀矿价格持续走高
北极星电力网新闻中心 2010-12-1 10:50:28
所属频道:核电 关键词:中国核电计划 铀矿 核电站
北极星核电网讯:在4年低位徘徊许久之后,用于核能最常见的铀交易品种的现货价格,
在过去4个月内上涨了45%,至每磅60.50美元。而这种上涨的原因在于中国。正如去年
铜价处于低位时,中国建立战略储备为铜市提供了支撑一样,随着中国政府准备迅速壮
大中国的核工业,类似的情况似乎发生在铀市。
业内专家表示,“中国加快建设核反应堆,意味着铀需求总量将大幅上升。”目前,核
能发电主要集中在美国、法国和日本,但中国将在数年内成为重要的核能中心。中国政
府的目标是到2020年,核电占到总发电量的5%,根据UXC的预测,在这一过程中,中国
每年的铀消费量将达到5000万-6000万磅。而目前全球每年的需求约为1.9亿磅。
专家表示:“中国在以疯狂的速度建设核反应堆。”由于中国产能每年仅为200万磅左
右,中国正积极采取行动,获取铀的供应。中国核工业集团公司和中国广东核电集团已
经与外国矿商签署了长期供应合同,并寻求建立合资企业。据麦格理集团表示,中国一
直在现货市场上买进,今年以来,中国的进口量相当于全球铀消费的20%-25%。因此,
综合来看,中国对铀矿的需求,堪比日本、韩国对稀土的需求。我们相信,在中国庞大
的核电计划之下,未来全球铀矿价格将长期走高。巨额的核电投资,不会变成摆设。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Wed Dec 1 03:16:39 2010, 美东) 提到:
铀现货价格过去四个月上涨45%
2010年11月30日 07:32东方早报
http://finance.ifeng.com/future/qhzx/20101130/2973844.shtml
早报讯 在4年低位徘徊许久、很多矿山停工之后,对冲基金经理昔日的宠儿——铀交易
品种的现货价格,在过去4个月内上涨了45%,至每磅60.50美元。英国《金融时报》说
,分析师和投资者将这种上涨视为多年牛市行情的开端。
上涨的原因在于中国。英国《金融时报》29日援引加拿大皇家银行资本市场的交易员亚
当·舍策的话说:“中国在以疯狂的速度建设核反应堆。”近几个月来,对冲基金再度
开始买进铀交易品种。2007年,当铀价飙升至每磅136美元时对冲基金曾大举入市。
大宗商品市场的最大投资者之一贝莱德也看多铀价,正择机把铀加入投资组合。英国《
金融时报》报道,贝莱德将寻求在未来5到10年对铀建立“较高头寸”,因为“中国核
能的增长超出了预期”。
核能发电主要集中在美国、法国和日本,但中国将在数年内成为重要的核能中心。由于
本国产能每年仅为200万磅左右,中国一直在现货市场上买进,今年以来,中国的进口
量相当于全球铀消费的20%-25%。
“目前的情形似乎是,在美国、日本、韩国需要重新补充库存前,中国正抢在其他所有
国家前头,建立战略库存。”瑞信驻多伦多分析师普罗菲蒂说。
据报道,上周,在纳米比亚和马拉威拥有矿山的铀生产商Paladin Energy在提交加拿大
监管机构的文件中表示,新长期合约的“初始基价”已“大幅上涨”,目前在“每磅80
美元或以上”。
市场中也有潜在的不利因素。自2008年以来,哈萨克斯坦的铀产量已增长一倍,成为最
大的铀生产国。此外,数十年来,各国在需求处于低位时积累了大量的库存。
铀市场还有着独特的风险。普罗菲蒂说,“一场核反应堆事故,就会严重影响该行业的
投资者人气。”
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Wed Dec 1 09:35:49 2010, 美东) 提到:
All green today. Watch CXZ.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Wed Dec 1 22:26:42 2010, 美东) 提到:
uranium 101
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5952590/Cameco_-_U101_2010.pdf
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Thu Dec 2 09:55:16 2010, 美东) 提到:
The rotation continue. Yesteray was DNN. LTBR is the winner today.
Lightbridge to Conduct Nuclear Energy Assessments for the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) Member States
53 minutes ago - Globenewswire
Related Companies
Symbol Last %Chg
EXC 39.31 -0.33%
LTBR 5.69 10.06%
As of 9:53 AM ET 12/2/10
Lightbridge Corporation (Nasdaq:LTBR), the leading innovator of advanced
nuclear fuel designs and provider of nuclear energy consulting services to
commercial and governmental organizations, today announced that it has
entered into a consulting contract with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
Member States to assess regional cooperation in the development of civilian
nuclear power programs for electricity generation and water desalination.
The GCC, a political and economic union that comprises the Gulf states of
the Kingdom of Bahrain, State of Kuwait, Sultanate of Oman, State of Qatar,
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, formalized the contract
with Lightbridge and its partner Exelon Generation Company, LLC, a wholly
owned subsidiary of Exelon Corporation (NYSE:EXC), and other leading nuclear
consultants. The studies will take place over a six-month period and will
be completed by the second quarter of 2011.
"With a 40 percent increase in global energy demand predicted over the next
two decades, according to leading energy industry organizations, massive
infrastructure investment will be necessary to meet this demand in all
regions of the world, including the Middle East," said Seth Grae, president
and CEO of Lightbridge. "We've had a long-standing dialogue with the GCC and
each of its Member States, and currently Lightbridge is working in some of
these countries. By engaging Lightbridge and its partners at this higher
level to assess the future nuclear energy landscape of these countries, the
GCC is taking important steps toward aligning the interests and needs of its
Member States to establish a blueprint for regional standards of nuclear
power generation."
Lightbridge will perform a group of studies to identify and evaluate seven
areas to identify the relative value and implementation options that could
result from regional cooperation for each GCC Member State as they progress
with their individual nuclear power programs. The areas of evaluation
include:
-- Legal Issues and Liability
-- Nuclear Regulation
-- Site Assessment
-- Training, R&D, Safety Culture and Human Resource Capacity Building
-- Fuel Security and Supply
-- Nuclear Waste Management
-- Emergency Response
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Thu Dec 2 10:03:24 2010, 美东) 提到:
DNN昨天突破了。昨天权重股CCJ也放量了。今天很可能要突破前期38高点了。我油水大
发了,哈哈。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Thu Dec 2 10:18:16 2010, 美东) 提到:
CCJ is too expensive for me. :) I bot DNN yesterday when open.
All samll U are under correction now, be careful.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Thu Dec 2 10:27:15 2010, 美东) 提到:
小盘股的调整在我看来只是随机扰动而已,毕竟资金量不大。
看大头方面,期货市场铀价年内新高三天都不带回头调整的,矿ETF和核能ETF昨天都是
突破高点。这波行情离结束还远得很。
昨天铀矿协会的市场调查是70%的交易员认为明年4月之前铀价上65.现在是61.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Thu Dec 2 10:36:28 2010, 美东) 提到:
要不是铀价一直45度猛涨,上上礼拜大盘这么悬我也不会在CCJ上赌那么大,用这么大杠杆,当时我买CCJ37call,38c的时候,便宜到掉渣,1毛2毛这样子,现在37都已经是in the money call.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Thu Dec 2 10:46:19 2010, 美东) 提到:
Small U stocks are hard to going up these days and need time for correction.
I plan to sell some today. Will watch now.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Thu Dec 2 10:47:20 2010, 美东) 提到:
CCJ is on the way to 40.
大杠杆,当时我买CCJ37call,38c的时候,便宜到掉渣,1毛2毛这样子,现在37都已经
是in the money call.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Thu Dec 2 11:46:14 2010, 美东) 提到:
I sold my U stocks and wait for next round.
Move to next section. Retail, Resturant.
correction.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
ShortCut (总想偷懒) 于 (Thu Dec 2 11:48:31 2010, 美东) 提到:
ccj. 5555555555555555555555
白看他这么久.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Thu Dec 2 11:56:12 2010, 美东) 提到:
Retail, Resturant,还有旅馆赌场对经济的反应基本上是一个类型。MTN这个股票我特
别喜欢,基本面良好,又有保尔森背书,涨的慢,但是很靠谱,以后你玩长期的话可以
看看,我在37块有强力重仓。
当下最火的是矿和tech。要把tech当成传递通胀的良好板块对待,因为美国的tech和矿
其实是一样的,全球范围的稀缺资源。tech还能涨一阵子,CREE,NVDA,SNDK涨势喜人。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Sat Dec 4 11:37:05 2010, 美东) 提到:
http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2010/12/03/forget-gold-an
2010 Nuclear Technology Review
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Reports/ntr2010.pdf
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Sat Dec 4 11:53:54 2010, 美东) 提到:
一句话总结:捞铀水比淘金和捞油水更有油水。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Sat Dec 4 12:00:08 2010, 美东) 提到:
这个人的意思是铀更 volatile ,原因是
1: supply高度集中于几家大公司,且中亚开采地区本身社会不稳定
2:demand:中国喜欢搞大单采购,短期对市场扰动很强
3:没有像gold oil silver这样完善的期货交易市场缓冲突涨突跌
所以07年暴涨暴跌都很瞬间
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Dec 7 11:22:50 2010, 美东) 提到:
CCJ新高了,我先撤走一部分Dec call。
看着大盘急挫,没有卖在最高点,哎,不够淡定。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Fri Dec 10 12:27:12 2010, 美东) 提到:
update 一下
铀价 new high 61.25
板块指标 CCJ 保持强势。
我不怎么关心小盘股的走向。
大趋势是牛的。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
kafen (Tiffany & Co) 于 (Fri Dec 10 18:50:24 2010, 美东) 提到:
where did you get this price?
What I saw is the spot price went down $1 to $60
http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx
long term trend is bullish for sure
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Fri Dec 10 19:04:48 2010, 美东) 提到:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/other/uranium_quotes_glo
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Fri Dec 10 20:18:03 2010, 美东) 提到:
最大核反应堆提供商拟发售新股筹资12亿美金
北京时间12月11日凌晨消息,全球最大的核反应堆提供商法国Areva SA公司(CEI)周五
称,该公司将通过发售新股的方式筹集9亿欧元(约合12亿美元)资金,科威特一家主权
财富基金和法国政府将在此次交易中买入Areva股份,来帮助融资该公司的投资活动。
法国财政部今天发表声明称,科威特投资局(Kuwait Investment Authority)将收购
Areva价值6亿欧元的(约合8亿美元)新股,这将使其持股比例达到4.8%左右;法国政府
则将收购该公司价值3亿欧元(约合4亿美元)的新股,目前政府的持股比例为91%。
在此前大约一年时间里,法国政府一直都在与科威特、日本三菱重工(Mitsubishi
Heavy Industries Ltd)和卡塔尔主权财富基金进行谈判,拟向其出售Areva的最多15%
股份。
Areva首席执行官安妮-洛韦容(Anne Lauvergeon)此前制定的目标是,通过增资计划筹
集30亿欧元(约合40亿美元)资金,来帮助融资该公司在设备、工厂和铀矿方面的支出,
以抵御外部竞争及在欧洲、中国和印度市场上出售更多核反应堆。
法国财政部表示:“随着时间的流逝,政府和Areva将考虑采取新的融资措施来在必要
情况下为第一次增资计划提供补充。”财政部称,目前Areva 仍在进行谈判,拟将其所
持意法半导体(STMicroelectronics NV)(STM)的股份出售给法国一家政府企业。
法国财政部并未透露Avera与卡塔尔和三菱重工之间的谈判是否仍在继续进行中。法国
工业部长工业、能源和数字经济部长埃里克-贝松(Eric Besson)曾在上周表示,法国和
卡塔尔在Areva的估值问题上尚未达成一致。法国发电厂和子弹头列车制造商阿尔斯通(
Alstom SA)(ALO)首席执行官柏珂龙(Patrick Kron)则在上个月表示反对将Areva股份出
售给三菱重工,因为三菱重工是阿尔斯通的竞争对手。
法国东方汇理银行(Credit Agricole CIB)(ACA)驻巴黎的工业分析师埃里克-夏普(Eric
Sharper)在客户报告中指出,Areva在2010年底以前增资15%的现在看起来已经不太可
能实现。但他表示:“我们认为,就现在而言这不是什么大问题,原因是预计Areva将
在2011年进一步筹集资金,而且还有可能进一步出售股票。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Sat Dec 11 15:16:33 2010, 美东) 提到:
你看得远,就把握大方向吧,这很重要。
小盘股我来看好了,这里新手很多,多数不玩option的,这个猫猫一定要考虑。你吃肉
,我们喝汤。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Sat Dec 11 18:34:02 2010, 美东) 提到:
我也不怎么买option。我现在也主要是买上几只股,然后跟踪基本面变化,不出大问题
就持有,到了期望价格就抛。这样比较轻松。每天看新股票1没那时间,2也提高不了收
益。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Sat Dec 11 19:21:11 2010, 美东) 提到:
可能我没说透,不冲突的。
比如看好铀,你捞大铀水,我们捞小铀水。你买CCJ,我们买URRE UEC USU URZ DNN。看
好餐饮,你吃龙虾,牛排,我们吃汉堡,pizza。你追求稳定,我们追求增长。这样不
管账户大小大家都有钱赚,大家都能得到好处,俱乐部才能办好。
当然有些股票是看好时机,大家都可以上的。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Mon Dec 13 10:08:30 2010, 美东) 提到:
今天sector很牛。美股市场上两个大的CCJ DNN 都high了
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Mon Dec 13 10:34:04 2010, 美东) 提到:
看到了,又可以捞铀水了。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Mon Dec 13 21:11:26 2010, 美东) 提到:
今天小铀矿股的表现差异很大,有新高的,有暴跌的。
大盘股,核能落后于铀矿
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Dec 14 09:56:58 2010, 美东) 提到:
update
铀价新高 61.75
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Tue Dec 14 10:01:46 2010, 美东) 提到:
小铀矿股跌
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Dec 14 10:09:50 2010, 美东) 提到:
大小盘股票就是这样的。小盘股高风险高收益。很多小股票不能short 不能hedge,容
易走向extreme。 CCJ涨10%要一个月,URRE只要一天就能涨或跌10%。基本面分析对于
小盘股操作意义不大。尤其是被炒过一波了以后。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Dec 14 12:22:25 2010, 美东) 提到:
咦?DNN Jan 2.5 call上面0.95 的11个买单是不是我们这里的兄弟?哄抬物价。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Dec 14 17:12:12 2010, 美东) 提到:
日内刷新
新高62.25!
同志们选对股可要拿住啊。中国是铁了心拿美元换资源了,本年度三大核能集团一家签
约加拿大和法国,一家签约加拿大待审批,还有一家再找矿石卖家。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Thu Dec 16 09:17:50 2010, 美东) 提到:
Uranium Energy Corp Added to S&P/TSX Global Mining Index
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Uranium-Energy-Corp-Added-to-prne
Press Release Source: Uranium Energy Corp On Thursday December 16, 2010, 8:
45 am
NYSE Amex Equities Exchange Symbol - UEC
CORPUS CHRISTI, TX, Dec. 16 /PRNewswire/ - Uranium Energy Corp (NYSE-AMEX:
UEC, the "Company") is pleased to announce that the Company is being added
to the S&P/TSX Global Mining Index effective at the market open on Monday,
December 20, 2010. The S&P/TSX Global Mining Index is designed to provide an
investable representative index of the world's leading publicly-traded
mining companies.
Amir Adnani, President and CEO of Uranium Energy, commented, "Addition to
the S&P/TSX Global Mining Index is a very important achievement for Uranium
Energy, one that follows our addition to the Russell 2000/3000 Indexes
during the past two years. It reflects the progress we have made this year
including advancing our growth plans as the newest uranium producer in the U
.S. We will continue to work to build the value of the Company as well as
its following within the investment community."
About the S&P/TSX Global Mining Index
The S&P/TSX Global Mining Index is a dynamic international benchmark
tracking the world's leading mining companies. It aims to offer investors
wide exposure to the world's mining markets by providing an investable
representative index of publicly-traded international mining companies.
The Index is comprised of the world's leading mining issuers with holdings
and projects all over the globe. The Index provides investors with both
diverse geographic exposure to mining companies and broad-based exposure to
metals and minerals.
Eligibility criteria include certain levels for market capitalization and
liquidity, among other requirements.
About Uranium Energy Corp
Uranium Energy Corp is a U.S.-based uranium production, development and
exploration company operating North America's newest uranium mine. The
Company's fully licensed and permitted Hobson processing facility is central
to all of its projects in South Texas, including the Palangana in-situ
recovery project, which has just initiated production, and the Goliad in-
situ recovery project which has been granted its Mine Permit and is in the
final stages of mine permitting for production. The Company's operations
are managed by professionals with a recognized profile for excellence in
their industry, a profile based on many decades of hands-on experience in
the key facets of uranium exploration, development and mining.
Stock Exchange Information:
NYSE-AMEX: UEC
Frankfurt Stock Exchange Symbol: U6Z
WKN: AØJDRR
ISN: US916896103
UEC big up in pre-market.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Thu Dec 16 15:03:57 2010, 美东) 提到:
URRE UEC URG URZ are good today.
DNN USU watch.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Mon Dec 20 09:21:02 2010, 美东) 提到:
Bot DNN last Thursday. Have UEC too. It should up today.
Hope U will go up this week.
Uranium Energy Corp Reports Excellent Phase-One Drill Results at Salvo
Project in South Texas
0 minutes ago - Cnw Group
Related Companies
Symbol Last %Chg
UEC 5.55 0.00%
As of 4:00 PM ET 12/17/10
NYSE Amex Equities Exchange Symbol - UEC
-- Intercepts include 9.5 feet grading 0.67% U3O8
-- Initial qualified resource anticipated Q1 2011
-- Company leases additional 2,541 acres along trend
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Mon Dec 20 09:21:53 2010, 美东) 提到:
Uranium Energy Corp Reports Excellent Phase-One Drill Results at Salvo
Project in South Texas
0 minutes ago - Cnw Group
Related Companies
Symbol Last %Chg
UEC 5.55 0.00%
As of 4:00 PM ET 12/17/10
NYSE Amex Equities Exchange Symbol - UEC
-- Intercepts include 9.5 feet grading 0.67% U3O8
-- Initial qualified resource anticipated Q1 2011
-- Company leases additional 2,541 acres along trend
Uranium Energy Corp is pleased to announce strong phase-one exploration
drilling results at the Company's Salvo project located in Bee County,
approximately 50 miles from the Company's Hobson processing facility in
South Texas. The objective of this drilling program, initiated November 8,
2010, is to verify and expand the NI 43-101 historic resource of 1.5 million
pounds of U3O8 as reported on July 19, 2010. This release reports results
from the first 43 holes of the phase-one campaign, with the remainder to be
drilled in January.
Upon completion of the phase-one program, the Company plans to follow
immediately with a phase-two drilling campaign consisting of an additional
approximate 140 holes, plus metallurgical and other tests to confirm that
the mineralization here could be produced using in-situ recovery methods.
Clyde Yancey, VP of Exploration, stated, "We are excited by the initial
drilling results at Salvo. We do indeed see potential for expanding the
resource at this project, and are now looking forward to the upcoming phase-
two program where we will be aggressively drilling prospective new zones."
Of the 43 holes drilled to date the following statistics have been compiled
from Prompt Fission Neutron (PFN) data.
A properly calibrated PFN tool provides a reading that directly approximates
uranium content:
-- 12 holes show significant uranium mineralization, with grade x
thickness (GT) values greater than 0.30. The Company's
engineers estimate that zones with a GT greater than 0.30 will
be shown to be producible.
-- 22 holes showing uranium mineralization with GT values between
0.012 and 0.30.
Following is a tabulation of the significantly mineralized holes with PFN
intercepts:
_____________________________________________________________________
| DRILL HOLE DESCRIPTION | PFN LOG |DEF|
|________________________________|________________________________|___|
| Hole Number |Total |Depth in |Thickness |Grade in |GT - Grade | |
| |Depth | Feet | in Feet |% cU(3)O | times | |
| |of Hole| to | | (8) | Thickness | |
| | |Intercept| | | | |
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCa_51.5-52.0*| 580 | 538.0 | 9.5 | 0.669 | 6.360 |0.9|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCa_51.5-52.0*| 580 | 515.0 | 9.0 | 0.200 | 1.800 |1.1|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCu_55.5-49.5 | 580 | 496.5 | 15.0 | 0.131 | 1.958 |2.6|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCa_51.0-52.0 | 580 | 531.5 | 18.0 | 0.094 | 1.688 |1.0|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCu_55.5-50.0 | 580 | 506.0 | 21.0 | 0.070 | 1.479 |1.4|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCu_55.5-50.5 | 580 | 509.0 | 17.5 | 0.065 | 1.136 |1.4|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCa_52.5-51.0 | 580 | 518.5 | 4.0 | 0.214 | 0.854 |2.2|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCa_50.5-46.5 | 580 | 514.0 | 12.0 | 0.049 | 0.584 |1.0|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCa_50.5-47.0 | 580 | 515.5 | 5.5 | 0.085 | 0.470 |2.7|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCa_52.0-51.0 | 580 | 511.5 | 11.5 | 0.039 | 0.450 |1.2|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCa_51.5-51.0 | 580 | 539.0 | 10.0 | 0.041 | 0.413 |1.2|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCa_50.5-46.0 | 580 | 508.5 | 16.5 | 0.023 | 0.385 |1.1|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCu_53.0-52.0 | 580 | 524.5 | 12.5 | 0.030 | 0.370 |1.1|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCu_54.0-50.0 | 580 | 453.0 | 10.0 | 0.037 | 0.366 |3.2|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCa_52.5-50.0 | 580 | 496.5 | 8.0 | 0.036 | 0.287 |1.2|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
|SCa_50.5-45.5 | 580 | 523.0 | 12.0 | 0.021 | 0.246 |1.4|
|______________|_______|_________|__________|_________|___________|___|
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Mon Dec 20 09:51:20 2010, 美东) 提到:
Uranium Sector Looks Like a Buy
27 comments | by: Jeff Pierce December 10, 2010
DNN / NLR / URA / URG / URRE
http://seekingalpha.com/article/241078-uranium-sector-looks-lik
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
cooleye (Wonder -- 飞啊飞) 于 (Mon Dec 20 16:13:58 2010, 美东) 提到:
ccj长期看好
中广核和cameco签署了长期合同, cameco有一个未开采的储量世界第一的铀矿将于
2013年正式开始开采,目标是到2018年产量翻倍。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Dec 21 17:29:11 2010, 美东) 提到:
金石财经20101221 -- 中国成运行第四代核反应堆国
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2YjjhdOwu4
天朝对外采购铀矿,同时发展核技术,对内加大核能比例,对外希望成为核技术出口商
。这个策略的逻辑上很顺。如果这个成立,长期来看,铀矿利多(因为中国本身买矿,
同时又出力做大蛋糕),美国核能出口商利空(全球蛋糕可能被带大)+利多(长期多
了个对手)
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
autumnwish (秋天的狂想) 于 (Wed Dec 22 02:33:57 2010, 美东) 提到:
great, let's keep working on this,
I have UEC, URRE, DNN
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Thu Dec 23 12:01:10 2010, 美东) 提到:
How long are you planning to hold?
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Tue Dec 28 09:57:48 2010, 美东) 提到:
http://stockq.cn/commodity/COMMURAN.php
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
autumnwish (秋天的狂想) 于 (Tue Dec 28 18:20:55 2010, 美东) 提到:
I usually hold for "long term", 6+ months.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fangxuanling (老房) 于 (Thu Dec 30 12:13:26 2010, 美东) 提到:
Uranium Price Target Lifted By Research Firm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Uranium-Price-Target-Lifted-indie
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
autumnwish (秋天的狂想) 于 (Mon Jan 3 19:40:20 2011, 美东) 提到:
那位专家点评一下?又是烟雾弹?
中国核研究获重大突破铀利用率提升60倍
2011年01月04日 06:13 成都晚报 【大 中 小】 【打印】 共有评论0条
中国科学家在核研究上取得重大技术突破:实现了核动力堆中燃烧后的核燃料的铀、钚
(同“布”音)材料回收。
这项技术的专业名称叫“动力堆/乏燃料/后处理技术”,属于全球第四代核能系统技术
的应用,与目前运行及正在建设的第二代、第三代核电站相比,其形成的核燃料闭合式
循环,可以使铀资源的利用率提高至60%以上(现有核电站只有1%,也就是提升了60倍
)。
由于利用率的提高,相对较贫的铀矿有了开采的价值。就世界范围讲,可采铀资源将因
此增加上千倍。以目前探明的天然铀储量推测,快堆的使用可以使铀资源可持续利用
3000年以上。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
hellod (hd) 于 (Mon Jan 3 21:07:20 2011, 美东) 提到:
不知道对不对,转载的
发信人: Wolbachia (爱其死以有待也,惜其生以有为也), 信区: Military2
标 题: 那个什么铀供应3000年是吹牛的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 3 21:03:49 2011, 美东)
前提是要用快堆增殖,然后再后处理。只有快堆才能产生更多的裂变原料,现在
所谓的后处理就是普通商业堆的废料,据说也就增加30%-50%的U235使用效率。以现在
快堆的发展趋势,根本不可能生产足够的原料给普通堆用。中国最进还向法国进口了
全套后处理工厂技术,就是上次胡总访法谈定的,用于处理现在运行的商业堆产生的
核废料
浅谈世界后处理现状和发展趋势(王俊峰,杨掌众)
| [<<] [>>]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
一、概述
1.乏燃料管理策略
为了应对化石燃料的短缺和保证能源安全,核电因其清洁性和高能量密度而受到青
睐,进入了一个积极发展期,由此也带来了对核电站卸下的乏燃料进行有效管理的问题
。目前,对于乏燃料的管理,国际上主要有三种战略考虑:
其一是后处理战略。即对乏燃料中所含的96%的有用核燃料进行分离并回收利用,
裂变产物和次锕系元素固化后进行深地质层处置或进行分离嬗变,这是一种闭路核燃料
循环。其特点是铀资源利用率提高,减少了高放废物处置量并降低其毒性,但缺点是费
用可能较高,可生产高纯度的钚,有核扩散的风险。
其二是一次通过战略。即乏燃料经过冷却、包装后作为废物送入深地质层处置或长
期贮存,美国曾经支持此战略,但其最终处置场尤卡山项目碰到了困难,现在美国已转
向了后处理。该战略特点是费用可能较低,概念简单;无高纯钚产生,核扩散风险低。
但缺点是废物放射性及毒性高,延续时间长达几百万年;没有工业运行经验。
还有一种是观望战略,就是等等看。
2.后处理的优点和必要性
乏燃料后处理是我国早已确定的技术路线。1983年,国务院科技领导小组召开全国
专家论证会,经过对我国核电发展计划、国内外铀资源情况、国内后处理工艺技术发展
水平、后处理的安全性、经济性等诸多方面的充分论证,确定了“发展核电必须相应发
展后处理”的战略,并在1987年日内瓦国际会议上对外公布了这一决定。
第一,后处理可以充分利用铀资源,保障核电可持续发展。
发展后处理工业是保证我国核电可持续发展的重要环节。压水堆核电站乏燃料中铀
-235为0.8%~1.3%,比天然铀中的铀-235的含量0.71%还高。另外还有新生的可裂变
物质钚-239。通过后处理可从乏燃料中回收有用的铀和钚,再制成UO2或MOX燃料返回热
堆或快堆使用,大大提高铀资源的利用率。据专家测算,将后处理得到的铀和钚返回压
水堆中使用可节省天然铀30%左右。如果能实现快堆和后处理的核燃料闭式循环,铀资
源利用率可提高60倍左右,这意味着本来仅能使用50~60年的天然铀就可利用3000余年。
第二,后处理可以使放射性废物减容和降低毒性。
后处理不仅可显著地减少需长期深地质层处置的核废物体积,而且可使最终废物的
放射性毒性大幅度降低。动力堆卸出的乏燃料如果按“一次通过式”处理方式进行长期
深地质层处置,高放废物量约为2m3/tU。按现在国际上运行的后处理厂的水平,乏燃料
经过后处理后产生的高放废物量约为0.5m3/tU,仅为前者的1/4。按照目前后处理工艺
技术的水平,铀、钚的回收率可达99.75%,使最终处置废物的放射性毒性降低一个数量
级以上。
二、各国主要后处理厂的现状
1.法国
法国现在的商业后处理厂集中在阿格中心。经过40年的发展,阿格后处理中心已成
为法国最重要的商用后处理基地,也是目前世界上最大的轻水堆乏燃料后处理中心。在
这里运行的UP2-800 和UP3 后处理厂总的运行能力达到1700tU/年,同时这两个厂拥有
着世界大型商用后处理厂最成熟、先进的工业后处理技术。
UP3 和UP2-800 厂的联合工程,是欧洲最大的工程项目之一。预算500 亿法郎,耗
时近20 年。UP3 与UP2-800 厂顺利运行,至今没有发生重大的事故,成为成熟商业后
处理的典范。法国通过对该联合工程的巨大投入,促进了法国后处理产业和相关联的一
些高科技产业的大力发展,相应的科研与技术也在世界上处于领先地位。同时,法国通
过对国外客户提供后处理服务已直接获得了较好的效益。截至2005年初,阿格基地累计
处理的轻水堆乏燃料量已达20500 吨,其中国内电站乏燃料10863 吨,国外为9637吨。
2.英国
英国是传统的核大国之一,其核工业的发展已经有半个多世纪的历史了,目前核电
发电量约占英国总发电量的25%。英国一直坚持乏燃料后处理政策,在后处理、核废物
管理与处置、核退役等方面都拥有一定的工业基础和技术。
英国的后处理厂主要在塞拉菲尔德与唐瑞这两个基地。塞拉菲尔德是目前英国最大
的核基地。该国镁诺克斯核电站产生的乏燃料由塞拉菲尔德镁诺克斯燃料后处理厂(
B205)处理。该厂处理能力为1500 t HM/a。该国改进型气冷堆(AGR)和压水堆(PWR
)卸出的乏燃料,则在塞拉菲尔德的THORP后处理厂处理,其处理能力为1200 tHM/a。
该厂同时还处理来自国外客户的轻水堆乏燃料。THORP后处理厂于1974年提出建设构想
,经过20多年的努力,于1992年完工,1994年开始剪切辐照燃料试运行,1997年获得英
国核设施检察局(NII)颁发的运行许可证。THORP后处理厂在大型后处理厂的设计、建
造、运行等方面都拥有独到的经验和技术,可以处理先进气冷堆和轻水堆的乏燃料。运
行至2004年以来,已经累计处理了乏燃料5644吨。
3.日本
日本从1963年开始利用核能。根据电力工业委员会(政府咨询组织)所写的报告,
核电生产能力将在2010年增加到70GW,每年产生的乏燃料约1000~1500tU。根据日本和
英、法签定的后处理合同,1998年9月前大约有5600tU从轻水堆卸出的乏燃料通过海运
到这两个国家进行后处理。1977年运行的东海村后处理厂(TPR)截至2002年底累积处
理乏燃料约1009吨。
日本正在建造的青森县六个所后处理厂年处理能力为800吨铀,其水池贮存能力为
3000吨,并能贮存从英国和法国后处理厂返回日本的放射性废物,计划2006年热试。六
个所后处理厂包括乏燃料接收与贮存(正在运行)、首端、主工艺和废物处置与贮存车
间。主工艺使用PUREX流程,除去易裂变产物,并对铀钚进行分离纯化。六个所后处理
厂于1991年施工,在1999年完成燃料接收和贮存车间的建造,现已贮存大约640吨乏燃
料。2001年4月在工厂的首端厂房开始水试,2005年7月完成建造工作。其工艺厂房的设
计主要引进法国的技术,也采用了英国和西德的一些技术,并尽可能地使用本国技术。
全部辅助设施都使用国内技术,而且全部厂房的设备包括主工艺线也都采用本国制造的
设备,以利于建立日本自己的后处理技术体系。
4.俄国
早在上世纪40年代末,苏联就开始军用堆乏燃料的后处理。第一座大型生产堆于
1948年6月建成投入运行,与之配套的后处理厂在1948年底到1949年初开始投入运行。
俄罗斯核电站每年卸出的乏燃料约为710tU,到2006年累计卸出的乏燃料已经超过
17000tU。于1976年4月投入试运行的RT1后处理厂是目前俄罗斯仍在运行的后处理厂,
年处理能力为400tU/年,累计处理量约为4500tU。为了处理WWER-1000型核电站的乏燃
料,前苏联在上世纪70年代计划在克拉斯诺亚尔斯克地区建设处理能力为1500tU /年的
RT2后处理厂。该厂建设了大约30%以后,由于各种原因, 1989年宣布无限期推迟建设
。最近有相关资料报道,该厂可能于2020年建成运行。
5.印度
印度是继美、法之后建成水法PUREX 后处理流程的第三个国家,也是目前继英、法
之后第三个运行商业后处理厂的国家,同时还是世界上唯一对坎杜堆乏燃料进行后处理
的国家,某些后处理技术处于世界领先地位。
印度在上世纪50年代就开始后处理技术的研究,最早的特朗贝中试厂于1964年投运
,采用了通用的PUREX流程,经过改进,其年处理能力从30吨扩大到60吨。在特朗贝中
试厂成功运行后,印度先后又建成了塔拉普尔和卡尔帕卡姆两座后处理厂,塔拉普尔后
处理厂(PREFRE 1)于1974年投产,主要处理重水堆燃料,设计能力为100t/a,1990年
实际能力达到150 t/a。计划于2005年运行PREFRE 3B后处理厂,设计能力为150t/a。卡
尔帕卡姆后处理厂,原设计处理能力为100t/a,后决定扩大一倍,达200t/a。由于印度
特别重视对快堆乏燃料的后处理,印?甘地原子研究中心正在建造一座快堆乏燃料后处
理厂(FRFRP)。
6.美国
现在通用的后处理PUREX流程是美国率先开发出来的,美国商业后处理厂的建造起
步也很早。但是,1977年卡特政府宣布无限期推迟商业后处理政策,后来虽然里根政府
表示采取积极步骤支持商业后处理,美国至今没有商业后处理厂运行。不过,美国后处
理研究工作一直很活跃。今年2月,美国首次推翻原先制定的乏燃料“一次通过”政策
,表示恢复商业乏燃料后处理,而且这种后处理技术可以防核扩散。
美国拟采用UREX流程,该流程的特点是采用一个水法流程,在首端将占乏燃料96%
的铀与仅占4%的钚、次锕系元素和裂变产物分开。大量的铀的分离提取采用水法流程,
可借鉴成熟的PUREX流程的经验,所需的分离设备很小。由于该流程分离得到的产品不
是纯钚,而是钚和次锕系元素的混合物,可避免产品用于核武器制造;同时,在不影响
快堆运行的情况下,产品中可含有适量的裂变产物,其放射性辐射可防止恐怖分子的接
近,且随着超铀产品对裂片去污要求的降低可以降低处理成本。所以,这种流程设计比
较合理,获得的产品能够满足防扩散要求。
三、后处理技术的发展趋势
在后处理技术发展早期,干法流程一度被认为优于水法流程,后来水法工艺PUREX
流程成为后处理技术的主流,但干法工艺研究一直很活跃,特别是对于快堆乏燃料的后
处理,干法工艺是一种不可或缺的技术路线。
从近期来说,技术上成熟的水法工艺PUREX流程是主要的前进方向,干法被认为是
辅助或备用工艺。然而从较长远发展来看,对先进反应堆(液态金属快堆、气冷堆、熔
盐堆等等)乏燃料的处理,倾向于干法后处理技术的利用。
进一步开发水法后处理工艺所追求的几个主要目标是:尽量减少待处置废物总体积
和活度;回收长寿命的放射性核素供特殊的处置或嬗变;提高防扩散能力;无盐流程开
发和减少循环数。
现有工艺的改进对工厂运行很重要。例如,英国核燃料有限公司开发的轻水堆燃料
和包壳通过电解法直接溶解,为提高材料分离和纯化的效率正在进行大量的工作。日本
核循环开发研究所(JNC)正在研究增加一个结晶阶段供钚分离之用。为了减少废物量
,无盐试剂的使用已经得到广泛的研究,例如法国原子能委员会(CEA)对高浓度硝酸溶
液催化调节脱硝作用的研究。在锕系元素分离工艺这个领域,大部分工作目前正在进行。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
autumnwish (秋天的狂想) 于 (Tue Jan 4 13:10:46 2011, 美东) 提到:
a good report
http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/8161
3241127444.html?x=0&.v=1
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
stlstl (射天狼) 于 (Wed Jan 5 13:17:56 2011, 美东) 提到:
觉得我的USU比较弱,是在下降还是在做一个三角形?
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Wed Jan 5 20:21:16 2011, 美东) 提到:
能源价格以后就如同水一样廉价...我国核能技术取得突破 铀利用率提升60倍
我国科学家近日在核研究上取得了重大技术突破,实现了核动力堆中燃烧后的核燃料铀
钚材料回收,而如果能够将钚材料在动力堆上实现循环利用,意味着在我国现有核电规
模下,我国已经探明的铀资源从大约只能使用50到70年变成了足够用上3000年。
这项技术的专业名称叫“动力堆乏燃料后处理技术”,专家介绍称核电站发电是通过核
燃料在核反应堆中发生裂变反应放出能量,和火力发电站要不断加煤一样,当核燃料维
持不了一定的功率的时候也需要更换,这些被换下来的核燃料组件就叫做乏燃料,通俗
的说,乏燃料类似于火力发电站中的“煤渣”,但是它又绝对不是煤渣,而是大宝贝,
因为当年世界的核电技术下核燃料都只燃烧了3%到4%左右,就维持不了额定功率了,而
这些核燃料在燃烧过程中还会产生新的核燃料。
这个时候就需要把核燃料进行后处理,也就是通过一些列的化学过程,把核电站没有燃
烧完的核燃料和新产生的核燃料提取出来,再把这个燃料制成核电站发点所需要的燃料
元件。循环利用的原理听起来简单操作却异常艰难,如何对这些有极强核辐射对人体有
致命伤害的元器件进行剪切、分离、提取、提纯等等,每一步都是难题,我国科学家经
过24年的钻研反复试验终于突破了全套技术体系。完全是靠咱们国家自己自主设计、自
主建造、自主调试、自主研发的设施,最后一次试验制备出了合格的铀产品和钚产品,
所以说它是成功了。
在国际上核燃料这个工业里面,我国是极少数几个能够形成核燃料循环的国家之一,因
此来说对整个在技术水平科技水平我国将既有话语权,甚至还能起到一定的引导作用。
此前法国、英国、俄罗斯、日本、印度等国掌握动力堆乏燃料后处理技术,我国进而成
为世界上第8个拥有快堆技术的国家。
快堆技术简介:
快中子反应堆(简称快堆)属于全球第四代核能系统技术的应用,与目前运行及正在建
设的第二代、第三代核电站相比,其形成的核燃料闭合式循环,可以使铀资源的利用率
提高至60%以上(现有核电站只有1%,也就是提升了60倍)。
由于利用率的提高,相对较贫的铀矿有了开采的价值。就世界范围讲,可采铀资源将因
此增加上千倍。以目前探明的天然铀储量推测,快堆的使用可以使铀资源可持续利用
3000年以上。(综合科技日报、中国青年报等)
中国实验快堆大事记
1986年863计划实施,开始“快中子增殖堆”课题预研
1995年12月中国实验快堆工程立项
1997年8月中国实验快堆被列为863计划重大项目
2000年5月核岛浇灌第一罐混凝土
2002年8月核岛厂房封顶
2005年8月堆本体安装开始
2007年6月堆内构件安装完成
2007年7月主控室交调
2007年12月完成模拟组件安装
2008年12月全厂安装完成,综合冷调开始
2009年3月堆本体气密性试验完成
2009年4月冷态调试结束,热态调试开始
2009年8月热态调试结束,具备首次装料条件
2010年6月首次装料
2010年7月首次临界
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Wed Jan 5 20:22:31 2011, 美东) 提到:
http://stock1.cf8.com.cn/news/20110104/650886.shtml
核能技术利用率获大突破 铀资源延寿高达3000年
中国最近在核能领域的一项技术突破,极大地提高了对铀资源的利用效率。中央电视台
的报道称,借助这项技术,中国已经探明的铀资源足够用上3000年,而目前已探明的铀
资源使用年限只有大约50到70年。
铀利用率提高超60倍
这项叫做“动力堆乏燃料后处理”的技术,可以对核动力堆中燃烧后的铀、钚等“
乏燃料”进行回收和循环利用。所谓“乏燃料”,简单来说,就是指已在反应堆内烧过
的核燃料。
厦门大学能源研究院院长、核能专家李宁告诉《第一财经日报》,传统的热反应堆
对天然铀的利用率不到1%,使用率非常低。
天然铀中,仅有0.714%的铀同位素——铀-235,能够在传统热反应堆中发生裂变反
应释放能量,而占天然铀绝大部分的铀同素——铀-238却无法发生裂变反应。
不过,铀-238在吸收中子后,经过几次核衰变后,可以变成另一种可裂变的核材
料钚-239。只不过在传统热反应堆中,产生的钚-239的数量不足以抵偿消耗的铀-235。
因此,传统热反应堆运行一段时间后便会因为无法维持额定功率而更换核燃料,更
换掉的“乏燃料”中含有大量的铀-238和钚-239。
事实上,国际上往往是把燃料循环利用和创新型反应堆联系在一起的。2000年,国
际原子能机构发起了一个旨在开发下一代先进核能系统的“创新型反应堆和燃料循环国
际计划(INPRO)”,目前有超过二十个成员国,中国也是其中之一。
该计划在目前阶段主要开展基于快堆及其闭式燃料循环的联合评价研究,主要是评
价快堆及基于快堆的燃料循环对核能可持续发展的作用和能力,并拟在下一阶段开展以
快堆技术为主的合作研发。
所谓快堆,简单来说,即主要钚-239为核燃料,并利用钚-239裂变时放出来的快中
子,将反应区的铀-238变成钚-239,从而实现核燃料闭路循环使用的一种核电技术线路。
李宁介绍,国际核能先驱提倡用这种能够“增殖”的快堆加上乏燃料的后处理,在
理论上能够使铀资源的利用效率提高到60%~70%。“从不到1%到60%,也就是中国探明铀
资源使用年限一下子变得能够用3000年的原因。” 李宁说。
落后印度至少20年
循环利用的原理听起来简单,操作却十分不易。如何对这些有极强核辐射对人体有
致命伤害的乏燃料进行分离、提取、提纯等,每一步都是科学难关。
中央电视台的报道称,经过24年的努力,中国才在最近突破了全套技术体系。中核
集团后处理中试工程总工程师王健介绍,该技术体系完全由中国自主设计、自主建造、
自主调试、自主研发。
此番研发成功,使中国成为全世界第八个掌握核电乏燃料后处理技术的国家,在此
之前,已有美国、英国、法国、比利时、印度、德国和日本先后掌握了该项技术。
值得一提的是,同为发展中国家的印度,早在上世纪60年代中期就掌握了这项技术
,掌握该技术的时间甚至早于德国和日本。
李宁介绍,这主要得益于印度在很早之前就制定了清晰的核能发展战略,即便在
1974年,由于拒绝在《核不扩散条约》上签字的印度进行首次核武试验遭到了西方的核
贸易禁运后,该国依然未放弃在民用核能方面的技术探索。
相比之下,中国在上世纪七八十年代则进入了一个核能的“停滞期”,决策层对待
商业核电站的态度,一会儿主张依赖进口,一会儿又希望依靠自主研发,在国家层面上
,既缺乏投入,也缺乏一个可资长期遵循的发展战略。
一位不愿透露姓名的核能专家则对本报表示,在核能工业上,尽管近几年中国作出
了艰苦的努力,但“冰冻三尺非一日之寒”,几十年下来,中国在快堆和燃料循环技术
方面已经大大落后于印度,“可能落后印度20到25年。”
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Wed Jan 5 20:30:52 2011, 美东) 提到:
中国核研究取得重大技术突破 铀资源受益股一览
中国核研究取得重大技术突破 铀资源可用3000年
据央视《新闻联播》、中国网络电视台消息,中国科学家在核研究上取得重大技术
突破:实现了核动力堆中燃烧后的核燃料的铀、钚材料回收。而如果能将钚材料在动力
堆上实现循环利用,这意味着在现有核电规模下,中国已经探明的铀资源从大约只能使
用50到70年,变成了足够用上3000年。
这项技术的专业名称叫“动力堆/乏燃料/后处理技术”。专家介绍,核电站发电是
通过核燃料在核反应堆中发生裂变反应放出能量。和火力发电站要不断加煤一样,当核
燃料维持不了一定的功率时,也需要更换。这些被换下来的核燃料组件,就叫做乏燃料
。通俗地说,乏燃料类似于火力发电站中的“煤渣”,但是它又绝对不是“煤渣”,而
是“大宝贝”。
因为当今世界的核电技术下,核燃料都只燃烧了3%~4%左右,就维持不了额定功率
了。而这些核燃料在燃烧过程中,还会产生新的核燃料。中核集团后处理中试工程总工
程师王健表示,这个时候就需要通过一系列的化学过程把核电站没燃烧完的核燃料,还
有新产生的核燃料提出来。
中国核工业集团总经理孙勤表示,在核燃料工业里面,我国是极少数几个能够形成
核燃料循环的国家。 (南海网)
私募观点:挖掘"核电热"中真正受益股
撰稿 王亮 编辑 全泽源
要研究核电类股票,应了解目前核电行业的真实状况,不能只看国家规划,要看国家
规划的执行力度以及各个区域之间的利益均衡,从而寻找真正可以从"核电热"中真正受
益的公司。
中国的核电格局是三巨头三足鼎立:中国核工业总公司(中核总)、中国广东核电集
团(中广核)、国家核电技术公司(国家核电),除了国家核电比较稚嫩以外,中核总是在国
资委网站上一直排名前三的央企,中广核是地处深圳的老牌核电企业,曾经创造了核电历
史上无数的第一,国家核电刚起步,还没有自己能发电的核电站,实力稍弱,但后劲也不可
小觑。
综上,宏观上看,目前就是中核总和中广核全国布点在建设核电站,国家核电的三门
和海阳电站也将很快建成,但很多地方都在抢核电项目。
对于中国目前核电项目的投资状态,我认为已经显露过剩苗头,不是中国不缺电了,
而是多数地方政府和省份都希望把核电站引到自己所在的区域作为政绩和拉动区域经济
的马车。各省市都不断的拉核电项目上马。比如在湖南桃花江核电公司的大院,迎面就
树立着一个大牌子,上书:争建内陆第一核电站。实际上,这个" 内陆第一"竞争对手不少
,湖北咸宁大昄和江西彭泽都在争取。
不断的争第一,对于资本市场有何意义?
金融大鳄索罗斯说过,当我知道一个泡沫正在吹起的时候,我会去把这个泡沫鼓起来
,然后在破碎之前离场。这个逻辑同样适用于当前核电的投资。
通过上述分析,我们可以总结出两点,首先,核电类股票可能没有办法像消费品一样
长期持有,因为投资最热的七八年过后,相关需求可能锐减,这是风险;其次,在核电投资
热的最近七八年内,各种设备需求处于绝对旺盛的阶段,个股投资机会显然还是存在的,
所以把握好趋势性的投资机会,有机会获得超额收益。
接下来我们谈谈投资标的问题:建设核电站过程中哪些是可以国内采购的设备?哪些
上市公司的东西正在被采购,或者将来会被采购?
中国一重、东方电气、中核科技,分别主要生产的是反应釜和泵壳、涡轮机、专业
核阀。
中国一重是最正宗的核电概念,也是未来五年核电订单不断的公司,而且据我们了解
,随着中国一重在核心锻造技术的不断突破,三大核电巨头都不断的向一重伸出橄榄枝,
要求"联姻",这也是未来可能存在的股价催化因素。中国一重在给广核制造的核电常规
岛低压转子采用钢锭重量580吨,是中国第一重型机械集团公司有史以来锻造的最大吨位
钢锭,创下了国内锻造业之最,证明一重雄厚的锻造实力和这台转子对建设世界一流铸锻
钢基地的推进作用。
泵壳是长期制约我国实现核电国产化的瓶颈铸件。它由大型球体和相贯的冷却管组
成,体积大,几何形状复杂,所用材料特殊不锈钢的钢水冶炼精度高,浇注风险大,其制造
技术目前仅为国际上少数几个大公司所拥有。现在国内的泵壳铸造的核心技术在中国二
重手中,但是二重没有上市,但是我们看到一重在2010年8 月初,正式启动AP1000主泵泵
壳的国产化研制。国核工程有限公司、沈阳鼓风机、上海核工程研究设计院、湖南桃花
江核电有限公司等相关方面的负责人出席开工会。公司副总裁王宝忠在会上介绍了
AP1000泵壳研制件开工准备情况。可以说一重现在也在抢二重的饭碗,中国一重的泵壳
与转子的订单在未来五年之内都会排期很慢,因为其独特性与排他性。
中核科技,从已有的核电站工程案例看,核阀在核电站中的投资比例占核电站建成价
的1.6%左右,相应地,该部分市场容量将达到144多亿元;二是核阀的维修、更换费用,该
部分费用在核电站维修总额中约占50%,当我国运行的百万千瓦核电机组装机容量达到
7500万KW时,每年核电阀门的维修、更换费用将达到25亿元。目前中核科技的主要竞争
对手有德莱赛梅索尼兰等国外公司,在A股上市公司和国内来看尚无竞争对手,所以在股
价合理的时候,值得适当配置。
东方电气在核电设备方面也颇具实力,因本版另有文章分析,本文不再赘言。(作者
为深圳知名私募人士,太和投资管理有限公司投资总监)( 中国证券网)
核电“航母战斗群”蓄势待发(附8只暴涨潜力股)
核电时代渐行渐近……
面对传统的能源供应模式给全球气候和环境带来严重且不可恢复的损害的威胁,为
了实现能源安全和环境保护的双重目标,近年来世界各国政府都在积极采取强有力的、
协调一致的行动节能减排,低碳经济成为当前一大热门话题。然而,近几年风电、太阳
能轮番上阵,锂电池概念疯狂演绎,泡沫不断膨胀中,机会与风险加速背离已经是不争
的事实。
风电、太阳能、锂电池和核电……新能源大家族里面,究竟还有多少值得期待?
据了解,国家能源局正在制定的《核电管理条例》有望于今年年底前上报国务院。
知情人士透露,《核电管理条例》将重点体现对未来核电开发的支持,其中将大力推动
内陆核电站的开发建设。
那么,核电行业的上市公司群体,又将受到什么影响呢?就此,《每日经济新闻》
记者仔细梳理了A股市场中与核电相关的33家上市公司,按照行业实力与受益程度,选
取其中8家编组“航母战斗群”。
作战形势:核电将进入发展高峰期
“如要在2020年完成非化石能源比例达15%的目标,核电规模至少达到7500万千瓦
以上。而目前国内的核电装机量只有900万千瓦,未来有高达7到8倍的增长空间。”一
位参与能源“十二五”规划前期讨论的发改委能源所高官透露。
公开资料显示,目前我国核电发电量占发电总量比例仅为2.2%,在30个核电国家中
排名倒数第一。
“按照2020年核电装机容量占全国电力总装机容量5%的目标,预计新的规划有可能
将目标提高到8000万千瓦甚至1亿千瓦。今年在建的核岛将达到30个,我国已经成为世
界上在建核电项目最多的国家。”上述人士补充道。
某券商研究员指出,“我国能够自主建造二代及二代半核电站,但三代核电技术还
未掌握。在掌握三代技术之前,我国核电建设不能放慢下来等,还将建造大量二代核电
站。与此同时,引进消化三代核电技术,2015年左右推广,2020年大量建造。”
基本编制:设备制造商是主要力量
据德邦证券测算,未来10年核电总投资有望接近1万亿元,而核电设备占其中的60%
,约6000亿元。毋庸置疑,未来10年1万亿元的战斗任务将在核电产业链众多企业之间
进行分配,但设备制造商才是主战力量。
目前,A股市场涉及核电领域的上市公司已经超过30家,但我国仅有三家核电投资
主体:中国核工业集团、中国广东核电集团、中国电力投资集团,其他电力投资企业包
括其余四家发电集团均在争取进入核电投资领域,但尚未放开。所有核电项目均需由上
述三大投资主体控股,其他投资方仅能少量参股。
“资质、自主知识产权和投资门槛等诸多因素都是一般企业进入核电领域的难题”
,中航证券刘振国表示,“在核电上调规划、国产化提速和政策扶持等背景下,不少细
分子行业仍然处于寡头竞争格局,相关上市公司受益十分明显,成长可期。”
作战分析:“航母”战斗群群雄逐鹿
“随着核电设备国产化的不断推进,核岛主设备设计制造、铸锻件和型材等原料、
核级泵、阀、电器、仪控系统的设计与制造等相关公司优势明显。”刘振国指出。
目前,A股市场30多家核电公司中,不乏东方电气、上海电气、中国一重、二重重
装、中核科技、自仪股份、东方锆业、沃尔核材等“航母”企业。也就是说30多家核电
概念股中,潜藏着一只以8家“航母”为核心的战斗群。
航母战斗群
1
东方电气
东方电气是我国最大的发电设备制造企业之一,也是目前国内具备制造百万千瓦级
核岛和常规岛设备能力的企业。
此外,东方电气获得了海阳核电站2台稳压器订单,成功进入AP1000第三代核岛设
备制造领域。在三代核电完全自主化之前,东方电气在二代及二代半核电领域优势非常
明显。
上海电气
截至2008年底,上海电气发电设备在手订单逾人民币1600亿元,重工设备在手订单
逾人民币170亿元。上海临港核电常规岛制造基地已经投入运营,具备了年产2.5套百万
千瓦级核电常规岛设备制造能力。
上海电气在百万千瓦级核电产业中起步较晚,但借助集团专业分工协作优势,通过
自主创新、技术引进和消化,目前已经拥有了百万千瓦级核电设备的制造能力,在第三
代核电AP1000国产化方面具有优势。
中国一重
中国一重是国内首个具备全套百万千瓦级核电锻件自主提供能力的企业,在国内率
先承担了世界首个第三代核电站AP1000核岛全套锻件的制造任务,并已具备了从事核岛
主设备制造的基础和条件。
公司还为国内8个在建核电项目提供反应堆压力容器或其他核电铸锻件。
据测算,核心主设备的铸锻件总价值占设备总投资的比重约为12%,按照1000MW设
备投资72亿元计算,铸锻件的总价值约为7亿~8亿元。
目前,中国一重产品线优秀,盈利能力突出,已经表现出了未来成长为国际重工业
巨头的潜力。
二重重装
二重重装大型铸锻件的加工和生产能力处于国际顶尖水平。公司拥有两台万吨级水
压机,其中自主研发建造的1.6万吨自由锻水压机在全世界同类水压机中规模最大。同
时,公司整体加工能力已经跻身全球少数几家企业组成的第一阵营。
同时,二重重装已成核岛设备主要供应商。2009年核电、风电等清洁能源电站设备
在手合同额为71.29亿元,其中核电产品的订单占51%。
此外,在行业景气度上升的背景下,股权激励有利于公司长期发展。2010年5月公
司拟实施股权激励计划,勾勒出了未来3年清晰的发展蓝图,有利于公司规范管理和高
效运营,长期高速增长可期。
航母战斗群
2
中核科技
中核科技是我国阀门行业和核工业系统的首家A股上市公司,也是核工业集团唯一
的上市公司。
目前,核级阀门国产化程度低于50%,主要生产企业包括中核科技、江苏神通。据
测算,一座2X100万千瓦核电站需要4亿元左右的阀门。随着国产化进度的不断提高,国
内企业整体阀门订单量将不断提升,核级阀门增长空间接近100%。作为CPR1000阀门技
术开发和生产龙头企业,中核科技有望获得 25%以上的市场份额。
自仪股份
公司将与国家核电技术公司共同出资组建核电仪控系统工程的合资企业,共同承担
第三代核电AP1000仪控系统技术的引进、消化和吸收,全面开展第三代核电仪表和控制
系统的自主化工作,为第三代核电仪控产品的制造做准备。
根据2008年自仪股份募集资金投向《大型压水堆核电站全数字化仪控系统及核电调
节阀类残夜话项目》规划,预计该项目明年将达产数字化控制系统4套、数字化保护系
统2套、核电专用系统装置10套、核级电动执行机构2000台、核级调节阀1500台、非核
级调节阀3000台。经测算,达产后销售收入为 6.2亿元。
东方锆业
截至2009年底,东方锆业拥有氯氧化锆产能2.5万吨,硅酸锆8000吨,二氧化锆
1000吨,复合氧化锆2300吨及结构陶瓷件300吨。与国内同类企业相比,公司产业链较
长,产品结构向附加值高的复合氧化锆、结构陶瓷延伸,因而毛利率及收入规模更具优
势。
如果锆管推进国产化,东方锆业具有一定的优势。
此前,公司公布增发预案,拟建设1000吨核级海绵锆生产线;继而与朝阳百盛签订
收购150吨核级海绵锆及600吨工业级海绵锆生产线合作意向,预示将正式进军核电领域
,填补国内空白,未来成长空间进一步打开。
沃尔核材
沃尔核材是核辐射改性新材料的高新技术企业,主要产品包括热缩套管、热缩母排
、热缩电缆附件、冷缩电缆附件、电缆分支箱等9大类2500多种产品,目前公司位居同
行业国内第一、世界第二的领先地位。
2008年增发预案显示,拟募集资金2亿元投资环保阻燃热缩、冷缩材料及系列制品
产业化,预计税后利润5428万元。该项目是国家发改委民用非动力核技术应用项目中唯
一一个在辐射交联环保阻燃热缩材料领域内的项目,并获得国家1000万元支持。目前该
项目已完成全部投资,2008年6月已经投产,新增产能2009年起满负荷运行。(每日经济
新闻)
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Wed Jan 5 20:47:56 2011, 美东) 提到:
新能源里边我最看好核能,其他的风电、太阳能、锂电池……我觉得没多大前途。
目前铀矿股没多少炒头了,可以关注炼铀和核电等股票。
USU是炼铀。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Wed Jan 5 20:48:57 2011, 美东) 提到:
Taking Bets On The Uranium Miners
Posted: Jan 04, 2011 12:46 PM by Aaron Levitt
Filed Under: Energy,Stock Analysis,Stocks
Tickers in this Article: CCJ, DNN, ICLN, NLR, PKN, UEC, URA, USU
As the world continues to grapple with the need for more energy, some focus
is being shifted away from traditional sources such as oil and coal, and
onto alternatives. Funds like the iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index (
Nasdaq:ICLN) have sprouted up to take advantage of this shift. While solar,
wind and biofuels will undoubtedly make up some of the future energy pie,
some former energy superstars are getting a new lease on life; nuclear
energy is experiencing a revival. Longer term, all of this reactor building
can have direct benefit for portfolios.
Get Free Stock Analysis By Email
IN PICTURES: 5 "New" Rules For Safe Investing
Moving Beyond Previous Roadblocks
Even though the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl disasters occurred decades
ago, many are still haunted by tragedies. These two events have caused the
number of new reactors built to become stagnant. However, as governments
around the world look for carbon neutral ways of providing enough power for
their citizens, nuclear energy is once again picking up speed. One pound of
uranium can produce more energy than 20,000 pounds of coal with a fraction
of the carbon output.
Developing and emerging markets are large sources of this demand for new
nuclear power with China leading the way. According to the Wall Street
Journal, the nation is currently constructing twenty-six new reactors, more
than twice as many as the next biggest builder, Russia. The nation also has
plans to begin construction on an additional 120 reactors over the next few
years, and a top administrator for China's nuclear power agency recently
gave a speech in which he estimated that China could add approximately 112
GW of nuclear capacity by 2020. A similar story is emerging in India, where
the nation expects to have 20,000 MW of nuclear capacity by 2020 and over 63
,000 MW by 2032.
The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) has been continually revising
its 2030 nuclear growth projections upwards and expects total worldwide
nuclear capacity to double in the next 20 years.
Bullish for Uranium
All of this new reactor construction will ultimately benefit the uranium
miners. Analysts estimate that China will need 50 to 60 million pounds of
uranium per year. However, the country only domestically produces around two
million pounds. In addition, Russia is ending its nuclear-weapons
decommissioning program in 2013. Recycled Russian nuclear warheads make up a
substantial portion of world uranium reserves. Altogether, you have bullish
recipe for increased uranium prices.
Both the Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF (NYSE:NLR) and PowerShares Global
Nuclear Energy (NYSE:PKN) offer investors exposure to the entire industry
including construction firms, utilities and miners. However, investors may
want to take a look at the uranium miners themselves as analysts predict
that prices could add another $15 to $20 a pound through 2011.
The Global X Uranium ETF (NYSE:URA) tracks a basket twenty-three different
uranium miners including Denison Mines (NYSE:DNN) and USEC (NYSE:USU). The
fund has performed well in its short life returning nearly 20% to investors.
The ETF's holdings are highly concentrated in Canada and charges 0.69% in
expenses.
For investors wanting a single company bet on uranium, Cameco (NYSE:CCJ)
holds nearly 16% of the worlds reserves. The miner recently struck a deal
with China's second-largest builder of nuclear plants, agreed to buy 29
million pounds of uranium through 2025. The stock has rallied over the
course of the year, but still trades at a P/E of 18. The stock could still
see gains as uranium prices are far from their $130 pre-recession peak.
The Bottom Line
As the world continues to search for new carbon neutral forms of energy,
nuclear power will remain in the spotlight. Investors wanting to play this
trend in increased generation from atomic energy might want to focus on the
uranium miners. Companies such as Uranium Energy (NYSE:UEC) are poised to
take advantage of this growth. (Learn how global warming is starting to heat
up America's corporate climate. See Can Business Evolve In A Green World?)
Use the Investopedia Stock Simulator to trade the stocks mentioned in this
stock analysis, risk free!
By Aaron Levitt
Aaron Levitt is an independent investment writer and analyst living in State
College, Pennsylvania. His work appears in several high profile
publications in both print and on the web. Levitt is an advocate for long
term investing with a global framework. You can follow his picks and pans at
http://twitter.com/AaronLevitt
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Wed Jan 5 20:51:33 2011, 美东) 提到:
我国核研究取得重大技术突破 铀足够用3000年
中国科学家在核研究上取得重大技术突破:实现了核动力堆中燃烧后的核燃料的铀
、钚(同“布”音)材料回收。而如果能将钚材料在动力堆上实现循环利用,这意味着在
现有核电规模下,中国已经探明的铀资源从大约只能使用50到70年,变成了足够用上
3000年。
这项技术的专业名称叫“动力堆/乏燃料/后处理技术”。专家介绍,核电站发电,
是通过核燃料在核反应堆中发生裂变反应,放出能量。和火力发电站要不断加煤一样:
当核燃料维持不了一定的功率时,也需要更换。这些被换下来的核燃料组件,就叫做乏
燃料。通俗地说,乏燃料类似于火力发电站中的“煤渣”,但是它又绝对不是“煤渣”
,而是“大宝贝”。
因为当今世界的核电技术下,核燃料都只燃烧了3%—到4%左右,就维持不了额定功
率了。而这些核燃料在燃烧过程中,还会产生新的核燃料。
中核集团后处理中试工程总工程师 王健:那么这个时候我们就需要把核燃料进行
后处理,也就是通过一系列的化学过程把核电站没燃烧完的核燃料,还有新产生的核燃
料提出来,再制成咱们核电所需要的燃料元件。
循环利用的原理听起来简单,操作却异常艰难。如何对这些有极强核辐射、对人体
有致命伤害的元器件进行剪切、分离、提取、提纯等等?每一步都是难题。我国科学家
经过24年的科研,经过反复实验,终于突破了全套技术体系。
中核集团后处理中试工程总工程师 王健:完全是靠咱们国家自主设计、自主建造
、自主研发的这么一个设施。
中核集团后处理中试工程总指挥 王俊峰:我们最后这一次(试验),制备出了合格
的铀产品和钚产品,所以说我们成功了。
中国核工业集团总经理 孙勤:在核燃料这个工业里面,我们是极少数几个能够形
成核燃料循环的一个国家,因此来说,在国际上对整个技术水平、科技水平、我们将能
够既有话语权,甚至还能起到一定的引导作用。
此前,法国、英国、俄罗斯、日本、印度等国掌握动力堆乏燃料后处理技术,但对
自己的核心技术体系每个国家都是严格保密。而我国核燃料已经发展 20多年,目前已
经有13个建好的核电机组,每年都会产生大量的乏燃料组件,在没有掌握这项技术之前
只有一个处理办法——存起来。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Wed Jan 5 20:52:44 2011, 美东) 提到:
2020年核电装机将达8000万千瓦 核电加速上马 铀资源依赖进口成瓶颈
中核集团福清核电工程3号机组日前开工建设,至此福建福清核电工程进入3台机组
同时在建施工阶段,后续5、6号机组项目报批等前期工作也在积极进行当中。6台机组
计划于2018年1月全面建成投产。
面对日益增长的能源需求,提高核电等新能源的使用比例已成为中国的迫切任务。
发改委专家预测,未来10年将是中国核电行业的快速发展期,2020年中国核电装机容量
有望达到8000万千瓦。然而,由于关键原料铀需要依赖进口获得,使得核电行业的发展
也面临瓶颈。
核电加速上马 铀资源成瓶颈
近年来,作为清洁能源的核电获得井喷式发展。截至2010年9月,国务院已核准34
台核电机组、装机容量3692万千瓦,其中已开工在建机组达25台、装机容量2773万千瓦
,中国成为全球核电在建规模最大的国家。
发改委能源研究所副所长戴彦德预计,未来10年,非化石能源将占我国总能源消耗
的比例为15%,其中核电装机容量2020年将达8000万千瓦。
然而,核电业的快速发展,也遇到了瓶颈——天然铀资源的短缺。有媒体称,即使
中国仅推进一个温和的核能发展计划,到2020年,中国核电站所需的铀也将有60%以上
要从国外进口。如果2020年中国实现4000万千瓦的核电产能,国内对天然铀的需求将增
至6000至7200吨。
四代技术露曙光 商业运营未成熟
尽管目前国际普遍关注的四代核电技术为中国核电行业带来了曙光,但商业化运营
仍需时日。
据中国工程院院士、核电专家叶奇蓁介绍,作为国家863计划重大项目,中国已在
第四代核能技术研发中的关键关节“快堆”中取得实质性突破。目前全球运行的400多
座核电站中,绝大部分采用的是二代和二代改进技术,以美国西屋公司AP1000和法国阿
海珐公司EPR为代表的三代技术目前正在进行商业化推广。
然而,上述二代与三代技术均属于热堆技术,其堆型绝大多数为压水堆,热堆裂变
使用的燃料主要是铀235,但是这种资源只占自然界铀储量的0.66%,而以快堆为代表的
四代核技术则使用钚239,配合占自然界储量99.2%的铀238做燃料,使得自然界的天然
铀的利用得到了大大提高。
据叶奇蓁介绍,由于快堆能提高天然铀的使用率,还使得很多贫矿具有了开采价值
,这将使世界可采铀资源增加上千倍。专家预计,以目前探明的天然铀储量推测,快堆
的使用可使铀资源持续利用3000年以上。
然而叶奇蓁表示,快堆要想商业化,必须具备经济性和技术上成熟,目前快堆技术
在国际上还处于试验阶段,预期2025年~2035年才能进入商用阶段。
-第一财经日报-
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yaokarl (大象) 于 (Wed Jan 5 20:54:36 2011, 美东) 提到:
17 Equities to Gain Uranium Exposure
by: Michael Filloon January 02, 2011
BYSWF.PK / CCJ / CVVUF.OB / CXZ / DLTUF.PK / DNN / ECOL / ES / FDCFF.PK /
FRG / FURAF.PK / MGAFF.PK / NLR / NUCL / NUURF.PK / PALAF.PK / PESI / PKN /
PUMGF.PK / PWURF.PK / QSURF.PK / UEC / URA / URG / URRE / URZ / USU
http://seekingalpha.com/article/244376-17-equities-to-gain-uran
Over the past few months, there has been a large move in uranium spot prices
. The spot price had been in the $40-$45 range until moving to the upside in
early August. Uranium hit this low after the bubble burst at $137/lb. The
spot price is now sitting at $62. This move in the commodity has caused
exponential moves in the stock prices of uranium companies. I hope this
article can be used as a general guide to the uranium space and why
companies that have negative earnings, have seen large increases in stock
price and market capitalization.
The first step is to look at who the companies are, and what they do.
Looking through the long list of companies (that is if the average investor
can find them) many either trade on exchanges outside the U.S. or are large
miners that are not pure or major plays on uranium. Two good examples are
BHP Billiton (BHP) or Rio Tinto (RIO). Here is a list of companies broken
into three groups. Groups are arranged largest market capitalization to the
smallest. The groups are exploration and production, enrichment, and waste
management. Not all are pure plays, but I chose companies with a large
enough presence to uranium that earnings are significantly affected by
changes in the price of uranium.
Exploration and production
Cameco (CCJ) is the world's largest pure play in uranium, with a market cap
of $15.73 billion. The fact that it is located in Canada, and has low
margins, allows Cameco to make money at low spot prices. Cameco has Legacy
Contracts to protect the company to the downside of prices. Although these
contracts have protected it to the downside, it also protects companies
purchasing uranium from the price moving up. It is a type of hedge for both
the producer and consumer. Cameco has sold uranium on the spot market, but
it is now a purchaser to meet the demands of its current contracts. Cameco
may be the best purchase for those wanting to buy into the uranium space,
but who do not care to take on higher risk metrics. Some 16% of the world's
is produced by Cameco. The company recently signed a long term contract to
provide uranium to China. Company estimates has uranium production doubling
by 2018.
Frontier Gold (FRG) has a market cap of $1.74 billion and also mines gold,
silver and copper along with its uranium properties. The company has mines
in the U.S., Canada and Turkey. Frontier's shares have doubled over the last
six months. The company's move has been somewhat muted based on exposure to
other metals. FRG will own approximately $259 million in Paladin (PALAF.PK)
stock after all of Frontier's uranium assets are sold in an all stock deal.
So you can indirectly invest in Paladin through this company.
Denison Mines (DNN) has a market cap of $1.14 billion. Denison has locations
in the U.S. and Canada, with exploration sites in development in Zambia and
Mongolia. Denison is a little different as it produces Vanadium as a co
product. The company recycles uranium waste and gold.
Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) has a market cap of $423 million and is located
primarily in the U.S. On December 20th, the company was installed in the S&P
/TSX Mining index. Rodman Renshaw raised its guidance to $7.50.
Uranium Resources Inc. (URRE) has a market cap of $312 million and is
located in Texas. Its primary mines are in New Mexico and Texas.
UR-Energy Inc (URG) has a market cap of $298 million. The company is
primarily in the U.S. and Canada. Rodman and Renshaw just raised its price
target to $4.25.
Uranerz Energy Corporation Comm (URZ) has a market cap of $234 million and
is primarily working locations in the U.S. and Canada. It is currently an
exploration stage company and has signed contracts with utilities such as
Excelon.
Crosshair Exploration and Mining (CXZ) with a market cap of $83 million. The
company produces uranium, vanadium and gold, along with other precious
metals in the U.S. and Canada.
Enrichment
USEC Inc. (USU) is a company that provides a different service with respect
to uranium. USEC has contracted with the U.S. and Russia to convert old
nuclear warheads into usable nuclear fuel. USEC's market cap is $681 million
and is located in the U.S. There is fear that USEC will have problems going
forward as the Russians decided not to renew their contract that expires in
2013. However, some are speculating that the U.S. will start expanding into
nuclear in the upcoming years. This will create work to dispose of the
tails produced at the power plants.
At this point the E and P companies look to benefit now from the increased
price of uranium, and I would guess they are better investments in the short
term. USEC does have some downside as its margins have been decreasing. The
upside is the new enrichment facility the company is trying to complete.
This would help to increase margins substantially, but the stock took a hit
when USEC was turned down for a low interest loan by the federal government.
This company also provides radioactive waste disposal, but it was placed
under this heading because of the specifics on what its main business is.
EnergySolutions Inc. (ES) has a market cap of $500 million. The company
provides cleanup services for radioactive waste. This company has a forward
PE of 13 and a dividend.
US Ecology (ECOL) has a market cap of $316 million and provides radioactive
and hazardous waste disposal services.
Perma-Fix Environmental Services (PESI) is another waste management company
with a market cap of $88 million. The company provides some of the same
services of nuclear waste,
The last group listed are ETFs that have nuclear exposure, which are URA,
NUCL, NLR, and PKN. If one does not want to purchase stocks, these ETFs
provide a basket. In some cases they will provide the investor access to
purchase companies abroad that they wouldn't be able to get exposure to
otherwise.
It is important to remember the last run up with respect to uranium prices,
before one dives into an investment. While the uranium spot price is up a
considerable amount over a short period of time, it is still less than half
of the all time high. Also, the last peak was hit in a very short time, just
as the bubble popped even faster. To follow the uranium spot price there
are two links, here and here. Another factor is the current price at which
the smaller exploration and production companies need to make money. As
stated earlier, Cameco is making money due to its lower cost production, but
many of these companies need to obtain a price closer to $60 a pound.
Lastly, the spot price increase is due to countries buying up uranium to
fuel their nuclear reactors under construction (China, Russia, India, etc.).
With this in mind, then the move to the upside is only the beginning and a
price of $100 a pound is not out of the question.
Russia just purchased Mantra for $10/lb of uranium in the ground. Russia
also purchased a 51% stake in Uranium One. China signed a long term deal
with Cameco. France just signed a deal with India to provide nuclear
reactors and fuel for the next 25 years. Russia will be recycling their
nukes through 2013, and although I am unsure how much uranium it provides,
the U.S. imports 90% of the fuel it uses in reactors.
France, Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and India are increasing their nuclear
energy by building more reactors. India has reported it has 4560 Megawatts
of nuclear power, but that it plans to increase this fourteen times by 2032.
China currently has 11 nuclear reactors with another 28 being built. China
has plans for 120 reactors total. To give an idea of how big the difference
would be, the U.S. has 104 in operation. The 11 reactors produce 9100
megawatts. By 2010 it plans to increase this number to 70000-80000. A
consultant from UXC states that that would bring China's uranium consumption
to 50-60 million pounds. Currently the world only uses 190 million pounds.
China has capacity to produce 2 million pounds a year, so the rest will have
to be imported.
Currently, I am a long term bull ready to ride out any downside to market
price of uranium. Even though there are still stockpiles of uranium, it
seems that countries with excess cash are going to fight over uranium
knowing that Russia is pulling a large source in 2013. I have long positions
in DNN, UEC, URG, URZ, and USU. I am looking for a pullback on URRE to buy.
I am also looking to add to positions on pull backs.
Disclosure: I am long USU, URG, URZ, DNN, UEC. | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 54 铀价又新高了
不要被股价回调吓退信心
大盘一旦转机,CCJ是好的抄底对象。
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】 : ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆ : tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 16 18:13:00 2010, 美东) 提到: : RT : ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆ : tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 16 18:24:25 2010, 美东) 提到: : 发信人: tanmaomao (坛猫猫), 信区: Stock : 标 题: Re: 铀价格走势图 (转载) : 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 16 18:23:29 2010, 美东) : Ux U3O8 Price indicator is the longest-running weekly uranium price series, : used by the industry in sales contracts
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 55 铀价65.75,新高
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 铀价又新高了 : 不要被股价回调吓退信心 : 大盘一旦转机,CCJ是好的抄底对象。
| y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | | y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | 57 上个月文章的中文版,仅供参考。
标题和我说得意思差不多,猫猫有总结。
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Sat Dec 4 12:00:08 2010, 美东) 提到:
这个人的意思是铀更 volatile ,原因是
1: supply高度集中于几家大公司,且中亚开采地区本身社会不稳定
2:demand:中国喜欢搞大单采购,短期对市场扰动很强
3:没有像gold oil silver这样完善的期货交易市场缓冲突涨突跌
所以07年暴涨暴跌都很瞬间
投资黄金石油不如投资铀!
作者:Agustino Fontevecchia 发布于:2010-12-08
有一种金属缺乏关注,但能用来产生原子能,它就是铀。
来源于:福布斯中文网
最近市场波动,加上美元前景未卜,这些促使大宗商品成为人们关注的焦点。黄金、原
油甚至白银的价格不断呈现上涨的趋势,丝毫没有停顿的迹象。然而,有一种金属缺乏
关注,但能用来产生原子能,它就是铀。
铀不属于交易所交易的大宗商品,不过有两家公司,UxC咨询公司(UxC Consulting
Company)和特易公司(TradeTech)相继开发了已逐渐被业界接受的铀现货价格指数。
UxC甚至在芝加哥商品交易所销售期货合约。 TradeTech的铀现货价格指数11月30日上
涨至两年新高,达到每磅60.25美元。到11月3日,UxC 2011年1月交割的期货价格为61.
00美元/磅,而2015年11月交割的期货价格为65.75 /磅。
一位分析师告诉我,他们预计2011年铀价格将攀升至65美元,并设定2012年的目标价格
为75美元/磅。“铀的基本面非常强劲,而且会出现金融投机,将铀价进一步推高,这
两方面都是利好因素。”该分析师表示。
铀交易非常不稳定。UxC副总裁尼克·卡特(Nick Carter)解释说,八九家铀生产商占
据全球产量的80%至90%左右。世界上大部分铀矿来自本身局势就很不稳定的地区,比如
哈萨克斯坦、尼日尔和纳米比亚。最后,卡特解释说,铀市场规模“非常小”,为此,
其价格很容易受到剧烈波动。
“2007年,随着许多投资者、对冲基金纷纷买入实物铀,铀价格飙涨到137美元/磅。”
卡特说。查看一下铀的历史价格走势图,我们就能证实,铀市场具有价格波动剧烈的性
质。短短几个月之内,铀就从45美元/磅左右飙升到137美元/磅,而其下跌的速度也毫
不逊色。
“以前,铀市场主要受到投资者的影响,而现在正转化为一个主要受生产商-成本影响
的市场。”卡特解释道。造成这种变化的因素是在1993年签署的俄美高浓缩铀-低浓缩
铀(HEU-LEU)协议将于2013年期满。该协议允许苏联把从削减的核弹头中提取出来的
铀以免税的方式出口。该协议期满将会使铀市场承受额外的供应紧张的压力。
注:自2001年10月1日起,UxC不再发布独联体铀价格
出乎意料的是,当前市场的需求主要来自中国。截至2010年1月,中国已有11座核反应
堆正在运营之中,而且还有20多座核反应堆正在建设之中,根据国际能源机构(
International Energy Agency)的《2010年核技术回顾报告》,中国核能产量占全球
的1.9%。 “中国制定了一个非常宏伟的核计划,并宣布到2020年将把(其核电装机容
量)提高到约8万兆瓦。”卡特说。
美国在核电产量方面远超世界上任何国家,共有437座核反应堆处在运营当中,还有56
座正在建设之中。其实际产量占美国能源生产总量的20%;在全球范围内,美国总的核
电产量占世界能源生产总量的14%。
购买实物铀看来并非从这个不断增长的铀市场中投资获利的最佳途径。全球X基金(
Global X Funds)上个月推出了一个交易代号为URA的铀 ETF(交易所交易基金)。从
11月5日第一天至12月3日收盘为止,在这一个月左右的时间内,URA就已上涨了16.3%。
另一种投资铀市场的方式是通过投资铀矿公司。总部位于加拿大萨斯卡通(Saskatoon
)的Cameco Corporation公司是世界上最大的铀生产商之一,据该公司网站的资料显示
,该公司目前产量占全球产量的16%左右。这家同时在纽约证交所和多伦多交易所上市
交易的公司拥有市值高达148亿美元,而该公司最近将其年度股息(按加元派发)上调
了43%!从0.28加元上调至0.40加元。该公司首席执行官杰瑞·葛兰迪(Jerry Grandey
)说:“(股息上调)证明了我们对我们公司业务以及铀市场长期基本面充满信心。”
Cameco公司股票是URA ETF基金持仓最大的股票。该股票价格一路飙升,自七月初以来
已上涨了78.3%,回到了雷曼公司破产前的股票价位。
矿业巨头必和必拓(BHP Billiton)也是一个不错的选择。这家澳大利亚矿业公司拥有
“世界上最大的铀矿床”——奥林匹克坝(Olympic Dam)。必和必拓正在扩建该公司
在“澳大利亚境内一项规模最大的投资项目”。最近放弃了收购全球最大化肥公司——
加拿大钾肥公司(Potash)的必和必拓公司,自今年夏天以来其股票表现非常抢眼,七
月初至今股价已上涨43%。
美国知名投资网站“寻找阿尔法”(Seeking Alpha)的伊恩·怀亚特(Ian Wyatt)表
示,“投资铀收益最大的将会在一些小盘股中,比如铀能源公司(Uranium Energy
Corporation),自8月31日至今,该公司股价已上涨了180%。”该公司一直专注于并购
,尤其是在美国西南地区(得克萨斯州、怀俄明州、新墨西哥州、亚利桑那州、科罗拉
多州和犹他州),并扩展勘探开发数据库。在11月份期间,该公司已开始在南得克萨斯
一些不同的项目中相继进行钻井和生产。
铀是一个增长前景巨大、但价格波动剧烈的大宗商品。随着推行更为清洁、成本更低的
能源的政策持续下去,铀这种放射性金属将会深受市场的关注。金砖四国(BRIC,即巴
西、俄罗斯、印度、中国)都已在利用核能,而韩国、墨西哥及其他国家也在加入其间
(可通过交易代号为PJN的全球核能 ETF基金追踪这些国
家核能发展的投资收益)。铀市场非常诱人,但是,像放射性物质自身一样,也存在巨
大风险。
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】 : 今天DNN URZ URRE不错。 : http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=351&t=ACAS,AU,BBL,BHP,CCJ,CXZ
| f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 58 Chinese Uranium Demand Picks Up -- Uranium Resources & Denison Mines Poised
to Benefit
1 hours 56 minutes ago - INW
MarketwireIn a familiar theme, demand for uranium is being driven by China,
as its government plans ahead for significant expansion of its nuclear
sector. Ux Consulting (UxC) forecasts say that China is in the process
quadrupling its uranium consumption up to 50 to 60 million pounds a year.
Moreover, China, itself, says it plans to build 10 nuclear power plants a
year for the next decade. At the moment China operates 11 reactors, and has
28 under construction. The Bedford Report examines the Uranium Industry and
provides research reports on Uranium Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ: URRE) and
Denison Mines Corporation (AMEX: DNN). Access to the full company reports
can be found at:
www.bedfordreport.com/2011-01-URRE
www.bedfordreport.com/2011-01-DNN
According to the Global X Uranium ETF which was started trading late last
year, uranium provides about 16% of the world's electricity. Uranium bulls
believe that the radioactive element is a clean resource alternative for
electric generation. One pound of uranium can generate as much energy as 20,
000 pounds of coal, and leaves behind a fraction of the carbon footprint.
Indeed, the vice-president of the China Nuclear Energy Association, Zhao
Chengkun, stressed that nuclear is the only energy source that can be used
on a mass scale to achieve the nation's goal of developing cleaner, low
carbon energy.
The Bedford Report releases regular market updates on the blossoming uranium
industry so investors can stay ahead of the crowd and make the best
investment decisions to maximize their returns. Take a few minutes to
register with us free at www.bedfordreport.com and get exclusive access to
our numerous analyst reports and industry newsletters.
With uranium prices surging, investors have turned their attention to the
uranium explorers and producers. Investors in uranium miners are banking on
rising earnings, as uranium prices rise, to provide value. In its most
recent earnings call, Uranium Resources posted a third quarter loss of 4
cents a share, compared with a loss of 4 cents a share in the year ago
period. The company recently signed a deal with industry heavyweight Cameco
for an exploratory property in south Texas. Denison Mines meanwhile posted a
third-quarter loss of 3 cents a share, which is an improvement over the 27
cents it lost a year earlier. | f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 59 http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/01/13/the-must-have-
The Must-Have Commodity for 2011
By Mike Pienciak | More Articles
January 13, 2011 | Comments (0)
It's not oil. It's not copper. (Although the fundamentals for both of those
do look good.)
In refined form, it is yellowish in color, but it's not gold either.
Ding-ding-ding! You guessed it: It's uranium.
An initial word of caution
First off, let's be clear that uranium, like any other commodity, it's
subject to violent price swings, as both real and projected shifts take
shape in the supply demand curve. In other words, you can make a mint or get
your face ripped off.
Just ask anyone who bought uranium-related stocks in early 2003, only to
watch the heavy metal's price leap twelvefold by mid 2007.
Conversely, those who boarded the uranium crazy train during May or June of
2007 -- when some "experts" were calling for prices above $200 per pound --
were no doubt soon choking on their stomachs as prices plummeted from the $
130s to the $80s in four short months.
Still reading? Good. Because even though uranium prices have risen
substantially since last summer, I believe opportunity yet exists for the
savvy investor.
Supply, meet demand
Hardly rare, uranium is more abundant than gold or silver and roughly as
common as tin and molybdenum. But that doesn't mean it's readily available
either.
For one, more than half of world production comes from 10 mines in six
countries, which means that political hitches and mining delays can, and do,
produce supply shocks.
Also, starting a new mine, or even expanding an existing one, is no quick
feat. Mining giant BHP (NYSE: BHP), for example, is looking at eleven years
of construction to expand its Olympic Dam operation (which, incidentally,
contains the world's largest known uranium deposit).
Then there's the favorable demand picture, summed up below:
•Against a worldwide total of 441 nuclear reactors currently in
operation, 63 new reactors are under construction, with another 156 on order
or planned.
•Existing mines currently furnish only about 75% of consumed uranium,
with the balance supplied by secondary sources such as decommissioned
warheads. Such sources are finite in nature, and a major Russian supply
program is slated to expire in 2013.
•No surprise, China is a heavy at the uranium table. The country plans
to increase its existing nuclear capacity roughly nine-fold by 2020, a
target that a government official recently indicated may be conservative.
•Finally, global electricity consumption is projected to nearly double
by 2030, yet nuclear power plants supplied only 14% of 2009's worldwide
electricity production. Translation: there's ample room for nuclear energy
production to grow.
Gaining exposure
So far, there's no exchange-traded fund or note linked to uranium futures.
But even if there was, I'm not sure I'd recommend it, as such products can
be savaged at the hands of the negative roll yield beast. That the leaves
the uranium producers as the most direct play on rising demand.
On that note, Canada-based Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) is the undisputed titan of the
industry -- and probably the most conservative play, too. With producing
mines in Canada and the U.S. and exploration properties in Australia (the
mother lode of global uranium deposits), Cameco is responsible for roughly
16% of the world's mined uranium production.
Impressively, the company turned in its most profitable year ever in 2009,
even as uranium prices were bottoming in the low $40s. No doubt that was due
in part to its practice of combining fixed- and market-based components in
its long-term sales contracts, along with floor-price protection. Such
astute financial management should help the company reach its goal of
doubling uranium production by 2018.
Of course, aggressive investors might hanker for greater upside than is
likely offered by Cameco. In that case, I refer you to Uranium One, traded
on the Toronto Stock Exchange and on the Pink Sheets in the U.S. With assets
in the U.S., Kazakhstan, and Australia, Uranium One is well on its way to
transforming itself from a top-ten uranium producer into a top-five
heavyweight.
Plus, the company boasts the lowest cash costs in the business. And 80% of
its pricing is market related, versus the 60% level that Cameco usually
targets.
But there are two key risks. One, growth has come at a price, namely, taking
on a majority shareholder in the form of ARMZ, the Russian company that in
part emerged out of the restructuring of Russia's nuclear industry. Can
Uranium One can remain shareholder-friendly given such an ownership
structure? Two, although Uranium One has been profitable at the EBITDA line
in recent years, it's posted some nasty net income losses. If that situation
doesn't turn around, a slumping share price could be the next big event.
Other options
For those who are interested in the higher-risk plays, in addition to
Uranium One, I'd take a close look at Denison Mines (AMEX: DNN) and Uranium
Resources (Nasdaq: URRE) among other intermediate and junior players.
For those who crave a cup of chamomile rather than a shot of espresso with
their yellowcake, there are a couple of paths you can take. One is to
diversify, such as investing in shares of diversified mining giants Rio
Tinto (NYSE: RIO) or BHP, both of which count mined uranium among their
revenue sources. Or, one could diversify within the uranium industry by
buying an ETF such as PowerShares Global Nuclear Energy or Market Vectors
Uranium & Nuclear Energy ETF.
A second strategy involves researching the companies that design,
manufacture, and service nuclear reactors. Two places to start are Shaw
Group (NYSE: SHAW) and Babcock & Wilcox (NYSE: BWC)
A final note of caution
As I said at the start, uranium prices can be volatile. An unexpected jump
in production or delays in new reactor start-up can have an outsized effect
on uranium prices -- and the prices of the stocks hitched to the heavy metal
's fate.
Moreover, not everyone shares my bullishness: Motley Fool Pro advisor Jeff
Fischer sold off his Cameco position about $9 ago on valuation concerns (the
stock currently trades at nearly 27 times 2011 estimated earnings).
Ultimately, though, I believe that if you prudently add to uranium-related
shares on major price drops, and wisely sell a little on the big run-ups,
you can do well in 2011 and beyond. | k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 60 added CXZ URRE on Monday
so far so good
URRE needs to do some catch up
those
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】 : http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/01/13/the-must-have- : The Must-Have Commodity for 2011 : By Mike Pienciak | More Articles : January 13, 2011 | Comments (0) : It's not oil. It's not copper. (Although the fundamentals for both of those : do look good.) : In refined form, it is yellowish in color, but it's not gold either. : Ding-ding-ding! You guessed it: It's uranium. : An initial word of caution : First off, let's be clear that uranium, like any other commodity, it's
| | | f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 61 CXZ is always crazy. Good today. Do not forget to take profit.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】 : added CXZ URRE on Monday : so far so good : URRE needs to do some catch up : : those
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 62 其实铀的价格涨得真的很快。
你引用那篇文章里面提到:到11月3日,UxC 2011年1月交割的期货价格为61.00美元/磅
。看看今天1月交割的期货价格为66.00美元。将近10%的涨幅。比金、银、铂金高很多
。而目前主力铀股的价格和11月初价格相当。
铜也有10%左右,现在金属板是铜领军。铜如果倒了,对版块影响很大。铜全靠中国增
长。
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】 : 上个月文章的中文版,仅供参考。 : 标题和我说得意思差不多,猫猫有总结。 : : tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Sat Dec 4 12:00:08 2010, 美东) 提到: : 这个人的意思是铀更 volatile ,原因是 : 1: supply高度集中于几家大公司,且中亚开采地区本身社会不稳定 : 2:demand:中国喜欢搞大单采购,短期对市场扰动很强 : 3:没有像gold oil silver这样完善的期货交易市场缓冲突涨突跌 : 所以07年暴涨暴跌都很瞬间 : 投资黄金石油不如投资铀!
| k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 63 $67 now
look forward to more rise next week
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 其实铀的价格涨得真的很快。 : 你引用那篇文章里面提到:到11月3日,UxC 2011年1月交割的期货价格为61.00美元/磅 : 。看看今天1月交割的期货价格为66.00美元。将近10%的涨幅。比金、银、铂金高很多 : 。而目前主力铀股的价格和11月初价格相当。 : 铜也有10%左右,现在金属板是铜领军。铜如果倒了,对版块影响很大。铜全靠中国增 : 长。
| a********h 发帖数: 819 | 64 which one has the most leverage?
I am think: URRE and CXZ
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】 : $67 now : look forward to more rise next week
| k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 65 yes I think so too, that's why I loaded these two last week
but it seems URZ is stronger
I guess it is because they just got the state permit, a major step forward
Maybe buying a basket of these junors is a better idea
they will all rise significantly with uranium price, some more than others
BTW: uranium reached 68
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】 : which one has the most leverage? : I am think: URRE and CXZ
| y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | 66 http://seekingalpha.com/article/246874-denison-mines-an-investm
Denison Mines: An Investment in Uranium's Growth Potential
31 comments | by: Michael Filloon January 17, 2011
| about: CCJ / DNN
Uranium is a difficult investment to make. Eric Bolling was on Fast Money a
while back and made the comment that only a handful of people on Earth truly
understand the mechanics of pricing with respect to this specific commodity
. Although I am not an expert, I have followed this sector for some time and
will be identifying stocks that look to be good or bad investments going
forward.
Most importantly, the price of uranium is still heading upward and until the
momentum starts moving in the opposite direction, I will recommend, at
least in the short term, to invest. There are currently two websites that
post uranium prices. The first is tradetech.com and the second is uxc.com.
Both web pages show a sustained upswing in uranium spot market prices for
the last few months.
At this time, I like Denison Mines (DNN) as an investment. Denison Mines is
currently debt free with $78 million in working capital. The company owns
two of the four permitted mills in North America. Denison is currently in
production, with uranium coming from three mines. They currently are
expanding production through projects located in Canada, Mongolia, Zambia,
and the United States.
Since the price of uranium oxide concentrate had dropped substantially from
its high of $137/lb., so has Denison's stock price. At the peak, Denison
traded at a little over $25 per share. It dropped to a low of $.56 in
December of 2008. Although it is difficult to know where the price of
uranium is going, many think the price/lb. could increase to $75 or $80 by
the end of this year. One thing is for sure, if the tightness in the spot
market persists, we will hit triple digits before you know it.
Since many of the uranium exploration and production companies are not
turning a profit, one way to value a company is the amount of the commodity
they are producing.
2010 Uranium Oxide Concentrate Production
•Cameco (CCJ) 22.0 million pounds
•Rio Tinto (RIO) 18.2 million pounds
•ARMZ+Uranium One (SXRZF.PK) 16.4 million pounds
•Areva (ARVCF.PK) 15.0 million pounds
•BHP Billiton (BHP) 6.2 million pounds
•Paladin (PALAF.PK) 5.6 million pounds
•Denison (DNN) 1.6 million pounds
In 2010, the top ten uranium miners produced 118.7 million pounds. This
accounted for 83% of the world's production. There are 441 reactors
operating, and they need 184 million pounds of uranium to operate. 58
reactors are currently under construction. 148 reactors are planned and 331
are proposed. It is important to remember that Russia currently provides 65%
of the world's uranium through the dismantling of their cold war nuclear
arsenal. They have decided not to renew this contract.
Since many of the big players like Cameco buy off of the spot market to
supply fuel for its customers when they are not producing enough to meet
contractual obligations of their legacy contracts, they may have to pay
significantly more on the spot market. These legacy contracts protect both
Cameco and their customers from the large shifts in pricing of uranium.
Cameco is able to do this with a very low cost of production. The reason
this is important to Denison is how Cameco does this. Cameco has a very low
cost of production when compared to other uranium producers. They accomplish
this by having sites where uranium concentration is very high. This
provides more uranium oxide per pound mined.
Denison recently had a world class size discovery at Wheeler River. They
currently own 60% and are the majority operator. This is the type of
discovery that can increase operating margins substantially. Denison has
made some substantial inroads in improving their operation. They have
increased overall resources internationally. Through 9-30-10 they had
improved revenue year over year by almost 100%. Their nine month loss over
the same time frame was reduced from a $.41 loss to a $.01 loss. Operating
cash flow for the first nine months of 2009 was a substantial loss, and this
was turned to the positive for 2010.
The uranium price has increased from approximately $40 per pound at the mid-
year of 2010 to $66 per pound in the first month of 2011. Most importantly
has been the decrease in operating costs. Denison's operating cost as of 9/
09 was $66.14 per pound and by 9/10, it was decreased to $38.22. For the
year of 2010, Denison earned $47.09/lb of uranium oxide. This number looks
to be increasing. Denison is estimating they will be able to increase their
uranium production from 1.7 million pounds this year to an estimated 10
million pounds of sustainable production by 2010.
Disclosure: I am long DNN, URG. Additional disclosure: Although I do not
currently own, I may trade URZ, URRE, UEC. | y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | 67 猫猫,现在是不是要搞核电设备了?
核电设备业:清洁能源之一 进入十年发展黄金期 荐2股
核电业进入十年高速发展期。作为清洁能源之一的核电业将进入十年快速发展时期
。根据政府规划,“十二五”期间核电新增装机容量3,000万千瓦,总装机容量2015将达
到4,300万千瓦,2020年至8,600万千瓦。获得政府支持的原因是:1)核电属於清洁能源,
符合国家炭减排目标,二氧化硫、二氧化碳等基本上是零排放。以首座 AP1000(由上气
为主导,联合哈动力共同吸收美国西屋技术的三代核电制式体系)三门核电一期为例,与
相同发电能力的百万千瓦级燃煤发电机组相比,可以每年减少1.149万吨二氧化硫、1.
909万吨氮氧化物和1345吨烟尘的排放量。2)核电运营成本便宜,因此所需上网电费与火
电成本相当,相对於其他新能源具有优势(见表1)。3)发电较为稳定,不像水、风、太阳
能等受气候因素影响。
核电设备厂商将率先受益。中国目前已运营核电站6 座,在建专案12个,规划和拟建
专案25个。核电建设周期通常为5年左右。因此要达到2020年核电装机容量8600万千瓦
的目标,2015年前将有众多核电项目开工。另外未来2~3年国内两代加和三代核电设备的
国产化率水准也将达到80%以上。因此,核电设备厂商,尤其是主机厂商将率先受益於核
电发展。以目前额定功率100万千瓦的单个核电机组为例,需投资120-130亿元,其中设备
投资占比51%,而设备中核岛、常规岛、辅机设备占比分别为 62%,23%和15%。根据我们
的测算,2010-2020年核电投资总额将为1,782亿元。
三大主机设备商中看好东方电气和上海电气,哈动力暂时落後。1)东方电气是目前
唯一手握三类核电制式(CPR1000二代改进型和AP1000、EPR三代制式)设备订单的厂家。
旗下东方重机三期工程於2010年7月完工,产能提升至年产6套100万千瓦级核岛主设备,
16台汽水分离再热器。在手订单方面,东方电气同样优势显着,目前核电在手订单400亿
元,二代加核岛主机设备市场份额达70%。预计2010年和2011年核电收入将增长100%,并
且由於技术的进步和规模经济的体现,核电毛利率水准已从2009年的-1.6%上升至2010年
上半年的17.6%,并将达到20%以上。
行业评级为优於大盘。我们给予核电行业优於大盘的评级,是由於1)2011年开始,核
电设备开始进入交货高峰期。2)随着国产化率的提升、国内企业技术成熟和规模化效应
显现,核电设备生产毛利率将逐步提升。三大核电主机设备商中,我们看好东方电气和上
海电气,因为两者的产能和手握订单较高,同时我们认为哈动力暂时落後其他两家同业,
但潜力较大,其核电收入将从2013年开始集中体现。(永丰金证券) | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 68 核电设备分两类,一类卖组装设备(可以理解为无技术的零件生产与组装,中国这样的
厂很多,三一重工就做这个),靠量产支撑业绩,以本地为市场才有物流成本优势。一
类卖核变技术,卖电转换优化技术,卖过后清洁技术,技术领先在俄国,美国,法国,
日本;市场可以是国际市场输出。
中国买了这么多矿,肯定是要用的。核电设备必然要跟上,第一类不缺,中国缺第二类
。但是上个月报道出来说中国现在是第三个拥有了二代核变技术的国家(俄国,日本)
,有意进入国际市场卖技术,不知道中国偷偷摸摸是否在其他核电技术上有了突破,如
果这样,那么对于美国核电能股票(注意不是铀矿股)是竞争关系(利空)。
所以我觉得还是美股铀矿比美股核电好。
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】 : 猫猫,现在是不是要搞核电设备了? : 核电设备业:清洁能源之一 进入十年发展黄金期 荐2股 : 核电业进入十年高速发展期。作为清洁能源之一的核电业将进入十年快速发展时期 : 。根据政府规划,“十二五”期间核电新增装机容量3,000万千瓦,总装机容量2015将达 : 到4,300万千瓦,2020年至8,600万千瓦。获得政府支持的原因是:1)核电属於清洁能源, : 符合国家炭减排目标,二氧化硫、二氧化碳等基本上是零排放。以首座 AP1000(由上气 : 为主导,联合哈动力共同吸收美国西屋技术的三代核电制式体系)三门核电一期为例,与 : 相同发电能力的百万千瓦级燃煤发电机组相比,可以每年减少1.149万吨二氧化硫、1. : 909万吨氮氧化物和1345吨烟尘的排放量。2)核电运营成本便宜,因此所需上网电费与火 : 电成本相当,相对於其他新能源具有优势(见表1)。3)发电较为稳定,不像水、风、太阳
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 69 话说 U价 这个月从62涨到69了。去年11月初股价爆发的时候U价才54.
我目前长线资金只剩 CCJ 和 sina了。
CCJ,抄底首选啊。 | a********h 发帖数: 819 | 70 URRE is dropping like a stone even when uranium prices steadily go up.
I do like URRE, good leverage to uranium prices.
maybe will add some, any input?
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 话说 U价 这个月从62涨到69了。去年11月初股价爆发的时候U价才54. : 我目前长线资金只剩 CCJ 和 sina了。 : CCJ,抄底首选啊。
| | | a********h 发帖数: 819 | 71 URRE is dropping like a stone even when uranium prices steadily go up.
I do like URRE, good leverage to uranium prices.
maybe will add some, any input guys?
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 话说 U价 这个月从62涨到69了。去年11月初股价爆发的时候U价才54. : 我目前长线资金只剩 CCJ 和 sina了。 : CCJ,抄底首选啊。
| k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 72 uranium price is $70 now
http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/u/u.asp
have no idea why URRE dropped like this
they must got a lot inquiries from shareholders so they decided to have a
conference call and webcast on 02/14
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Uranium-Resources-Announces-bw-37
I sold half of my URRE at 3.12 and all of my URZ at 4.54 last week when
I thought they would have been going down with the main market. Bought
those half of URRE shares back today at 2.53. Still have no idea where
they will move in short term. They are still very bullish in long term
IMO.
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】 : URRE is dropping like a stone even when uranium prices steadily go up. : I do like URRE, good leverage to uranium prices. : maybe will add some, any input guys?
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 73 如果是吃定 铀价格 高 这个概念的话,你选股的时候要看看 哪些公司确实是有矿的储
备。URRE没注意过,所以没啥input。
还有一点关于timing的就是,大盘和金属板块毕竟是和个股有实质性联系的(具体的一
项比如说通过ETF,像CCJ是编在有些ETF index里面的),最稳妥的办法就是等等等一
番暴跌后,如果回头一看铀价格还是很高(比对其他矿价走势),你就买着CCJ不动,
那分红等上涨,相信beat 大盘业绩还是很有戏的。
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】 : URRE is dropping like a stone even when uranium prices steadily go up. : I do like URRE, good leverage to uranium prices. : maybe will add some, any input guys?
| e*n 发帖数: 1511 | 74 nice
URZ很牛
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】 : uranium price is $70 now : http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/u/u.asp : have no idea why URRE dropped like this : they must got a lot inquiries from shareholders so they decided to have a : conference call and webcast on 02/14 : http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Uranium-Resources-Announces-bw-37 : I sold half of my URRE at 3.12 and all of my URZ at 4.54 last week when : I thought they would have been going down with the main market. Bought : those half of URRE shares back today at 2.53. Still have no idea where : they will move in short term. They are still very bullish in long term
| f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 75 CCJ is very strong.
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 如果是吃定 铀价格 高 这个概念的话,你选股的时候要看看 哪些公司确实是有矿的储 : 备。URRE没注意过,所以没啥input。 : 还有一点关于timing的就是,大盘和金属板块毕竟是和个股有实质性联系的(具体的一 : 项比如说通过ETF,像CCJ是编在有些ETF index里面的),最稳妥的办法就是等等等一 : 番暴跌后,如果回头一看铀价格还是很高(比对其他矿价走势),你就买着CCJ不动, : 那分红等上涨,相信beat 大盘业绩还是很有戏的。
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 76 牛X啊
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】 : CCJ is very strong.
| f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 77 I bot DNN today.
CXZ URZ URRE URG are up too.
Looks like U stocks are start again.
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 牛X啊
| k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 78 U spot price reaches $72
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】 : I bot DNN today. : CXZ URZ URRE URG are up too. : Looks like U stocks are start again.
| f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 79 crazy. keep up.
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】 : I bot DNN today. : CXZ URZ URRE URG are up too. : Looks like U stocks are start again.
| M***m 发帖数: 762 | 80 still up...
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】 : crazy. keep up.
| | | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 81 更新一下 最近的交割U价 73 没有回调迹象
买了CCJ的同志们 hold住哦,没买的等下次抄底吧。 今天ER。 | f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 82 U bet ER with option protection?
What do do is good for long term at ER?
【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: wavelets01 (信箱), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 油工你不是说csco,nok都是买入死捂的吗?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Feb 9 22:27:51 2011, 美东)
油工,长期hold的,如果碰到ER,hedge 一下,或者减仓但不抛光。
不然就是波段做法了。
如果我理解对了,油工想说的是这次er的风险比较大,但长期仍然看好,对巴? | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 83 CCJ没买option ,买的是股票。CCJ option premium太高。
谈不上赌ER,去年37-38买了之后就没动过,11月到现在多少人喊大盘/金属/金银到顶
了,我都没动,因为U价一直再涨。只要U价坚挺,我就不抛。U价坚挺,ER没什么大的
风险。如果ER miss暴跌,正好抄底。
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】 : U bet ER with option protection? : What do do is good for long term at ER? : 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】 : 发信人: wavelets01 (信箱), 信区: Stock : 标 题: Re: 油工你不是说csco,nok都是买入死捂的吗? : 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Feb 9 22:27:51 2011, 美东) : 油工,长期hold的,如果碰到ER,hedge 一下,或者减仓但不抛光。 : 不然就是波段做法了。 : 如果我理解对了,油工想说的是这次er的风险比较大,但长期仍然看好,对巴?
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 84 现在回顾从11月初到现在,U还是很猛的,和金、银、铜相比。
从今年1月到现在,道指涨了4.69%,金、银、铜都没有跑赢大盘。
铝(AA)和U(CCJ)跑赢大盘了一个百分点以上。 | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 85 http://stock.hexun.com/2011-01-22/126960381.html
上海电气建成百万千瓦级核岛主设备
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 核电设备分两类,一类卖组装设备(可以理解为无技术的零件生产与组装,中国这样的 : 厂很多,三一重工就做这个),靠量产支撑业绩,以本地为市场才有物流成本优势。一 : 类卖核变技术,卖电转换优化技术,卖过后清洁技术,技术领先在俄国,美国,法国, : 日本;市场可以是国际市场输出。 : 中国买了这么多矿,肯定是要用的。核电设备必然要跟上,第一类不缺,中国缺第二类 : 。但是上个月报道出来说中国现在是第三个拥有了二代核变技术的国家(俄国,日本) : ,有意进入国际市场卖技术,不知道中国偷偷摸摸是否在其他核电技术上有了突破,如 : 果这样,那么对于美国核电能股票(注意不是铀矿股)是竞争关系(利空)。 : 所以我觉得还是美股铀矿比美股核电好。
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 86 U价本周出现连续两日下降,但幅度不大。今日回升到71 | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 87 今天 U价下跌幅度很大 68.5了
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : U价本周出现连续两日下降,但幅度不大。今日回升到71
| v*****a 发帖数: 353 | 88 铀股还应该hold 么?
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 今天 U价下跌幅度很大 68.5了
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 89 小盘股不太清楚。
CCJ的话如果你成本低,就hold吧,通胀概念现在又起来了,材料金属跌不到哪里去(
当然 U价要经常看)
【在 v*****a 的大作中提到】 : 铀股还应该hold 么?
| v*****a 发帖数: 353 | 90 多谢。
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 小盘股不太清楚。 : CCJ的话如果你成本低,就hold吧,通胀概念现在又起来了,材料金属跌不到哪里去( : 当然 U价要经常看)
| | | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 91 CCJ跌破支撑线的话 就抛掉吧。
A股那边,两会题材 核也是一个热点,
不过还有一段时间,到时候也可以在load做波段。
【在 v*****a 的大作中提到】 : 多谢。
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 92 今天U价格没有反弹,本月U价跌幅很大,73 到 68.5.做多者要小心了
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : CCJ跌破支撑线的话 就抛掉吧。 : A股那边,两会题材 核也是一个热点, : 不过还有一段时间,到时候也可以在load做波段。
| w*****d 发帖数: 1172 | | f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | | w*****d 发帖数: 1172 | | t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 96 U价格继续下跌
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 今天U价格没有反弹,本月U价跌幅很大,73 到 68.5.做多者要小心了
| f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 97 ALL U stocks up with DOW. It's better just play short term.
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : U价格继续下跌
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | | a********h 发帖数: 819 | 99 uranium sector hasn't followed oil/gas at all.
need some patience.
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : U价最近上下起伏很大。
| t*******o 发帖数: 1464 | 100 你这个价怎么和我查到的不同,我这里是67,相当于11月中旬的价格。对应到股价,好
像很接近。你看看。
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/other/uranium_quotes_glo
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】 : uranium price is $70 now : http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/u/u.asp : have no idea why URRE dropped like this : they must got a lot inquiries from shareholders so they decided to have a : conference call and webcast on 02/14 : http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Uranium-Resources-Announces-bw-37 : I sold half of my URRE at 3.12 and all of my URZ at 4.54 last week when : I thought they would have been going down with the main market. Bought : those half of URRE shares back today at 2.53. Still have no idea where : they will move in short term. They are still very bullish in long term
| | | f**********g 发帖数: 2252 | 101 It's 67 now. I think it will up. Bot URG.
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 你这个价怎么和我查到的不同,我这里是67,相当于11月中旬的价格。对应到股价,好 : 像很接近。你看看。 : http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/other/uranium_quotes_glo
| c********g 发帖数: 1106 | 102 猫猫有没有网站可以对commodity价格作简单的技术分析,看看均线支撑啥的?
你这个价怎么和我查到的不同,我这里是67,相当于11月中旬的价格。对应到股价,好
像很接近。你看看。
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/other/uranium_quotes_glo
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】 : 你这个价怎么和我查到的不同,我这里是67,相当于11月中旬的价格。对应到股价,好 : 像很接近。你看看。 : http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/other/uranium_quotes_glo
| y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | 103 铀价在10月前都稳定在57块,长期趋势是缓慢增长。
CCJ是铀股领头羊,USU核能,DNN,CXZ还有点金矿,其他几个小铀股总体趋势相同,但
每天表现不一。
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=341&t=UEC,USU,DNN,CXZ,CCJ,URR
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】 : 更新一下铀价。3.11后跌到50,现在又回到61了。
| A*r 发帖数: 2253 | |
|
|
|
|
|