l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 1 There is another poll out, taken at approx the same time ( 2 days earlier),
that has a margin of error of 1.1% vs this one at 5.8%, with 6,178
repondents, vs this poll of 478, and shows Mr. Trump in the lead by 4% |
a********r
发帖数: 4013 | 2 美国的poll就和小费一样都是忽悠算术能力为零的美国人的 |
l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 3 Wisconsin will either be a "slight" win for Trump or a "slight" win for Cruz
. It will actually be a proportional state even they say it's "winner-take-
all" state. You see Cruz needs to get 84% of the delegates in Wisconsin just
to stay on track for a successful night, but Trump needs to only get 50% of
the delegates to stay on track. Even if he falls a couple short it won't
hurt him. By the time April 19th rolls around that will give Trump an
additional 95 delegates from New York because if Trump wins 50% or more he
gets all the delegates and Cruz polls terrible in New York. That should
bring him up to 870 before the April 26th climax when Trump will win every
state. Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware and Rhode Island which
should get him to about the 1,000 delegate mark. After that it's just a
matter of picking up a proportional amount of delegates. |
l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 4 johnlocke445 •3 hours ago
I've had a lot of polling experience in college when I was getting my PhD in
mathematics and I can tell everyone this. In a nonlinear system like
politics, economics, weather or anything that moves with chaos and
complexity the underlying data does not change this radically. Ted Cruz was
at 23% two weeks ago and I have never seen a poll move almost 20 points like
that unless a random event takes place such as the death of a candidate or
a candidate leaving the race for a specific reason. The only thing I can
assume is that they're "pushing" the data to force a specific outcome. I
have seen polling companies do this all the time. I think everyone is going
to be stunned by the results on April 5th. It won't be a Trump total victory
, but it will be the usual Trump rust belt type win. I don't think Cruz is
capable of attaining 40% support in an open primary in a state close to the
influence of the rust belt where Trump is strong. I think whoever is
responsible for the data collection is testing whether they can sway the
populace to vote in the direction of the "pushed" data. |
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 5 We have to admit that Trump is the underdog in WI now.
,
【在 l**********1 的大作中提到】
: There is another poll out, taken at approx the same time ( 2 days earlier),
: that has a margin of error of 1.1% vs this one at 5.8%, with 6,178
: repondents, vs this poll of 478, and shows Mr. Trump in the lead by 4%
|
r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 6 Bing也是认为川普能赢WI。CRUZ是underdog才对。
【在 m****g 的大作中提到】
: We have to admit that Trump is the underdog in WI now.
:
: ,
|
m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 7 威州感觉就是和密苏里一样，会有很强的阻力。很奇怪，床铺在威州竞选规模都很小全
是townhall，不知道怎么组织的 |
r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 8 密苏里就赢了1000多票，当天出口民调也说川普落后，最后还是赢了。
【在 m********g 的大作中提到】
: 威州感觉就是和密苏里一样，会有很强的阻力。很奇怪，床铺在威州竞选规模都很小全
: 是townhall，不知道怎么组织的
|
A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 9 2 weeks to cook data before they have to cook the data to show Cruz leadig
in NY.
in
was
like
or
going
【在 l**********1 的大作中提到】
: johnlocke445 •3 hours ago
: I've had a lot of polling experience in college when I was getting my PhD in
: mathematics and I can tell everyone this. In a nonlinear system like
: politics, economics, weather or anything that moves with chaos and
: complexity the underlying data does not change this radically. Ted Cruz was
: at 23% two weeks ago and I have never seen a poll move almost 20 points like
: that unless a random event takes place such as the death of a candidate or
: a candidate leaving the race for a specific reason. The only thing I can
: assume is that they're "pushing" the data to force a specific outcome. I
: have seen polling companies do this all the time. I think everyone is going
|
p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 10 最可笑的 poll 是说 11 月 Cruz 对阵 hillary 赢面多少， trump 对 hillary 输面
多少。
这些 poll 简直是胡说。 cook 数字也是随手就来啊。
【在 A**d 的大作中提到】
: 2 weeks to cook data before they have to cook the data to show Cruz leadig
: in NY.
:
: in
: was
: like
: or
: going
|
|
|
m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 11 那种poll都是无聊的，只有正式确定了对阵的poll，尤其是最近1，2个月的poll就比较
准。
【在 p*****n 的大作中提到】
: 最可笑的 poll 是说 11 月 Cruz 对阵 hillary 赢面多少， trump 对 hillary 输面
: 多少。
: 这些 poll 简直是胡说。 cook 数字也是随手就来啊。
|
p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 12 几个 WI 小 sample 的 poll 都是 cruz 领先, 大 sample 的 poll 则是 trump 小幅
领先。
看了 cruz 比较擅长人数很少的党代会。
,
【在 l**********1 的大作中提到】
: There is another poll out, taken at approx the same time ( 2 days earlier),
: that has a margin of error of 1.1% vs this one at 5.8%, with 6,178
: repondents, vs this poll of 478, and shows Mr. Trump in the lead by 4%
|
r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 13 党代会可以做弊，这是CRUZ团队比较擅长的。
【在 p*****n 的大作中提到】
: 几个 WI 小 sample 的 poll 都是 cruz 领先, 大 sample 的 poll 则是 trump 小幅
: 领先。
: 看了 cruz 比较擅长人数很少的党代会。
:
: ,
|
s****u
发帖数: 1433 | 14 并非CAUCUS容易作弊。
合理的解释是这样的：参加CAUCUS的多是政治积极分子，
也就是普罗人群中比较极端的那些。同时，这些积极
分子对普通人的影响更大。
所以在CAUCUS选举过程中，更极端的参选者更容易获胜。
而PRIMARY有更多的人参与，极端的积极分子的影响相对小。
这样更中性的参选人，
也就是那些更有COMMON SENSE的人更容易获胜。
CRUZ更极端偏右，所以他在CAUCUS表现更好一些。
真到普选，CRUZ这种极端右派根本一点希望都没有。
这些都是常识了。 |
c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 15 Cruz的ground game还是很有用的，老床为了省钱不肯在基层发力，也是没办法。
【在 s****u 的大作中提到】
: 并非CAUCUS容易作弊。
: 合理的解释是这样的：参加CAUCUS的多是政治积极分子，
: 也就是普罗人群中比较极端的那些。同时，这些积极
: 分子对普通人的影响更大。
: 所以在CAUCUS选举过程中，更极端的参选者更容易获胜。
: 而PRIMARY有更多的人参与，极端的积极分子的影响相对小。
: 这样更中性的参选人，
: 也就是那些更有COMMON SENSE的人更容易获胜。
: CRUZ更极端偏右，所以他在CAUCUS表现更好一些。
: 真到普选，CRUZ这种极端右派根本一点希望都没有。
|
