z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 1 静态的分析是，美元和黄金涨，英镑和欧元跌，股市跌
但市场是动态的。我倾向于BREXIT公决是靴子落地，卖VIX/VXX的机会。
公决结果是不对称的。决定留在欧盟就石头落地了。决定脱欧并不意味着就会离开EU。
后面还有议会，还有和EU谈判，还会有下轮公决。从路径上讲，要想引导大众投票留在
欧盟，靠政客拿经济衰退吓唬，是效果很小的，最有效的实时的，就是股市大跌。股市
大跌反过来会影响POLL，所以可能在公决日之前就有反转。
中长期还是看空市场，经济周期已经到了late cycle，离经济衰退不远了 |
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发帖数: 1 | 3 这不算突发事件，我指的突发事件是指favor brexit，这是against
mm玩这一套很得心应手
[在 muyong2013 (mumu) 的大作中提到：]
:突发事件来了，要下10了 |
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b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 5 前些日子yyber和yupek都提到了最近SPX不跌，VIX暴涨的情况。历史上也不多见。下周
Brexit水落石出后，VIX提前涨的部分可能还是要还回去。最坏的情况是英国选择退欧
，那VIX之后可能还有一冲。我倾向于无论如何，VIX还是撑不住。即使最坏情况出现，
FED的反萧条措施也会跟进。所以，下周四后最好的交易我觉得还是在做空VIX这一块。 |
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y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 6 Brexit，这个问题，现在可以和全球央行竞相贬值本币，bond race to bottom联系到
一起看，反映了全球贸易保护主义抬头。
感觉在大选前，short 跨国公司，long 小公司，可能是不错的选择。 |
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n******a
发帖数: 438 | 7 脱党们赶紧回到街上游行啊。周末公布更新民调，Brexit再涨几个点。
先让哥把uvxy出了再讨论政局不迟。。。。 |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 11 It is believed that two group of stocks will rally strongly after the Brexit
.
What do you believe?
Bet is on, let's see whether it would happen. :) |
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b*****e
发帖数: 5907 | 12 uvxy和svxy，一个往上一个往下
Brexit |
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l*w
发帖数: 567 | 14 地震这种自然灾害对股市的影响可以忽略不计。
Brexit这种人为的政策的改变影响要大得多，应该和亚洲金融风暴差不多。
亚洲风暴那次也没有彻底崩掉，掉了约15%
pent |
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g*******h
发帖数: 1327 | 15 vol暴跌是很有可能的。
大盘很有可能追涨一天，虽然这几天大盘上涨brexit的odd已经被price-in了很多。
能否持续上涨就要看街上如何讲下个story了，估计focus会重新转移到叶大妈那边。 |
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m*****y
发帖数: 3981 | 18 如果Brexit 成功， 美金会大涨 黄金同时涨 了 |
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l*w
发帖数: 567 | 20 http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results
MORGAN STANLEY: European stocks will fall 15-20% after Brexit vote
Fri, Jun 24, 2016, 1:34AM EDT - US Markets open in 7 hrs and 56 mins
By Bob Bryan
1 hour ago
Among the wide-ranging impacts, financial markets are going wild following
the monumental vote and Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets thinks this
will be a huge downside for markets.
"It looks likely that the UK has voted to leave the EU," Sheets said in a
note to clients followi... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 21 America is next to 're-declare independence'
Peter Weber,The Week (RSS) 3 hours ago .
Donald Trump landed in Scotland on Friday to take care of some golf business
, and immediately upon landing, he offered his endorsement of the UK vote to
leave the European Union: Scotland actually voted against the Brexit, 62
percent to 38 percent, and the referendum results increase the chance that
Scottish voters will eventually choose the EU over the UK. In a longer
statement posted to Facebook, Trump expan... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 22 even more so post Brexit.
'cuz yields r even higher
Q after Q
real $ in ur pocket |
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a***m
发帖数: 5037 | 23 股票回不到 brexit 前
买的put 还亏钱了 懊恼极了 |
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发帖数: 1 | 24 神马brexit, trade war,都没所谓吧。大盘今年暂时涨够了，现在相对高位，在2800上
下1到2趴仙震荡个半年完全可能啊。年底再去新高把，呵呵 |
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f*********7
发帖数: 1040 | 25 brexit后，听说fed在考虑reduce interest， mortgage的利率是是不是还会降低?
谢谢高手指点 |
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发帖数: 1 | 26 What Trump has in common with the Brexit vote
We live in a corrupt country. We thought America was different from a Banana
Republic, but we were naïve. We were wrong.
How do I know? Look no further than the panic among the media, establishment
and political elite class about the possibility of Donald Trump taking
power.
Everyone in power is scared and desperate to stop Trump. They’ll do
anything and say anything to stop him from winning the White House.
This presidential election looks like... 阅读全帖 |
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n*****0
发帖数: 1721 | 27 http://astro.women.sohu.com/20160302/n439200762.shtml
火星逆行：占星预测英国脱离欧盟全民公投
Astrology of the Brexit Referendum: Mars Retrograde Edition
占星预测英国脱离欧盟全民公投
Astrology Predicts the Brexit Referendum
2月19日，欧盟作出让步，同意英国加入欧盟。现在，英国将就是否加入欧盟进行
全民公投（译者注：下文简称全民公投）。如果投票结果是脱离欧盟，这一转变将是重
大而戏剧性的。如果英国继续留在欧盟，那么对其本国而言不会有重大转变，但是其他
国家将不太可能因这一不公平特殊待遇而继续留在欧盟。就如费加罗报头版评论所言：
On February 19, the European Union agreed to concessions to keep the UK
in the European Union. Now, the UK will hold the “Brexit referendum” (a
popular vot... 阅读全帖 |
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m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 28 We're suffering the consequences of too much democracy
feed_manager_auto_publish_494--autopubtest_WPTUMBLR_485
2 hours ago
Democracy, you could argue, is pretty much like sunshine, cold beer and ice
cream. They’re all great —until you have too much.
Too much Democracy? That’s not possible, is it?
In fact it may be. Some economists and political scientists are suggesting
as much in the wake of the Brexit vote and the subsequent wave of “Leave
the EU” sentiment that’s sweeping across Europe. And y... 阅读全帖 |
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s******n
发帖数: 518 | 29 英国继续禁止转基因
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/28/gm-crops-will-continue-banned-
britain-brexit-says-michael-gove/
GM crops will continue to be banned in Britain after Brexit says Michael
Gove in blow to UK/US trade deal
Christopher Hope, Chief Political Correspondent
28 November 2017 • 9:00pm
Food made from genetically modified crops will continue to be banned in the
UK after Britain leaves the European Union, Michael Gove has suggested.
The Environment secretary’s admission could dam... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 30 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: shymajia (马后大炮), 信区: USANews
标 题: 屁民们太多民主了！
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jul 5 18:05:53 2016, 美东)
操！怪不得现在精英们为人民服务很难。
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/brexit-direct-democracy-referendums-000000954.html
Democracy, you could argue, is pretty much like sunshine, cold beer and ice
cream. They’re all great —until you have too much.
Too much Democracy? That’s not possible, is it?
In fact it may be. Some economists and political scientists are suggesting
as much in the wake of the Bre... 阅读全帖 |
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s******a
发帖数: 318 | 31 操！怪不得现在精英们为人民服务很难。
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/brexit-direct-democracy-referendums-000000954.html
Democracy, you could argue, is pretty much like sunshine, cold beer and ice
cream. They’re all great —until you have too much.
Too much Democracy? That’s not possible, is it?
In fact it may be. Some economists and political scientists are suggesting
as much in the wake of the Brexit vote and the subsequent wave of “Leave
the EU” sentiment that’s sweeping across Europe. And you can look to a big
ho... 阅读全帖 |
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n******g
发帖数: 17225 | 32 May reaches deal with DUP to form government after shock election result
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/theresa-may-reaches-deal-
with-dup-to-form-government-after-shock-election-result-northern-ireland
Theresa May has struck a deal with the Democratic Unionists that will allow
her to form a government, sources have confirmed.
The prime minister is expected to see the Queen at about 12.30pm on Friday
to confirm that a deal is in place.
It follows extensive talks with the DUP la... 阅读全帖 |
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T*********I
发帖数: 10729 | 33 附上英文：
https://justpaste.it/12goy
This is the full transcript of Donald Trump’s interview with Michael Gove
and Kai Diekmann, former chief editor of the German newspaper Bild.
Mr President-elect, your grandfather is from Germany, your mother is from
Scotland. As you know, Michael is Scottish, I am German. How will you manage
relations with our countries?
Trump: Well, it’s similar. We have great love for both countries. These are
great countries, great places. It’s very interesting how the UK brok... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 34 Flash Crash of the Pound Baffles Traders With Algorithms Being Blamed
by Hiroko Komiya
October 6, 2016 — 6:27 PM CDT
Updated on October 6, 2016 — 7:33 PM CDT
British one pound coins stand stacked near the printed face of Queen
Elizabeth II on a five pound banknote in this arranged photograph taken in
London, U.K., on Thursday, Jan. 2, 2014. The pound was the strongest
performer among a gauge of 10 developed-nation currencies in the second half
of 2013 as improved economic data boosted bets th... 阅读全帖 |
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A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 35 你神经太长了。川普政治上不但不孤立而且代表的是绝大多数选民。现在媒体一边倒加
上布什罗姆尼这些共和党一边倒倾向希拉里，这反应的是现在西方世界的大势，政治格
局重新洗牌，已经不是以前的全球化富豪们手里摆布的差球不多的左右之争，而是全球
化富豪们和被他们吸血的屁民反全球化的撕逼。Brexit就是最明显的证据，传统两党政
客们大都支持remain,媒体各种扭曲恐吓，从奥巴马到日本财长到G20全都给remain站台
，以前一个国家公投有过这架势吗？
布隆伯格当初说考虑单独竞选的前提条件是桑德斯初选胜出，其实就是隐晦的给希拉里
拉票吓唬那些担心出现3 way race然后国会钦点总统的民主党们。但是Brexit之后丫终
于坐不住了，DNC之后第一时间立刻蹦出来。
其实这次选举跟Brexit完全一样，富豪和他们手里捏着的媒体、”学者们“再怎么逼逼
描绘川普当选的严重后果，他们都跟当时的remain一样没有资本来劝告选民为什么
remain或者希拉里这种狗屎级别的status quo is good or even ok.这和12年奥巴马手
里握着危害还被深度隐藏的Obamacare,经济危机有所缓... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 36 我希望你说的结果是对的，但你的论证实在没有一点说服力。都是荷尔蒙。
[在 ARod (Alex Rodriguez) 的大作中提到：]
:你神经太长了。川普政治上不但不孤立而且代表的是绝大多数选民。现在媒体一边倒
加上布什罗姆尼这些共和党一边倒倾向希拉里，这反应的是现在西方世界的大势，政治
格局重新洗牌，已经不是以前的全球化富豪们手里摆布的差球不多的左右之争，而是全
球化富豪们和被他们吸血的屁民反全球化的撕逼。Brexit就是最明显的证据，传统两党
政客们大都支持remain,媒体各种扭曲恐吓，从奥巴马到日本财长到G20全都给remain站
台，以前一个国家公投有过这架势吗？
:布隆伯格当初说考虑单独竞选的前提条件是桑德斯初选胜出，其实就是隐晦的给希拉
里拉票吓唬那些担心出现3 way race然后国会钦点总统的民主党们。但是Brexit之后丫
终于坐不住了，DNC之后第一时间立刻蹦出来。
:其实这次选举跟Brexit完全一样，富豪和他们手里捏着的媒体、”学者们“再怎么逼
逼描绘川普当选的严重后果，他们都跟当时的remain一样没有资本来劝告选民为什么
:remain或者希拉里这种狗... 阅读全帖 |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 37 不是这个丑梅姨故意搞砸的 她想要的是把民意要求的Brexit搞成Brexit without
Brexit, 也就是说只是名义上的脱欧 但议会还是代表民意的 当然否决掉了 |
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b*********3
发帖数: 1709 | 38 Humiliations in neo-imperialist ventures abroad, followed by the rolling
calamity of Brexit at home, have cruelly exposed the bluff of what Hannah
Arendt called the “quixotic fools of imperialism.” As partition comes home
, threatening bloodshed in Ireland and secession in Scotland, and an
unimaginable chaos of no-deal Brexit looms, ordinary British people stand to
suffer from the untreatable exit wounds once inflicted by Britain’s
bumbling chumocrats on millions of Asians and Africans. More ugl... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 39 America's #Brexit-style vote is in Nov.– Will USA remain a free,
independent & sovereign nation or cede more control to a global order?
— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) June 22, 2016
Sen. Jeff Sessions wrote in a USA Today op-ed, in which he laid out the case
for Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton:
For the first time in a long time, this November will give Americans a
clear choice on perhaps the most important issue facing our country and our
civilization: whether we remain a nati... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 40 The economic lesson emerging from the Brexit vote is consistent with what
those who favored the Leave campaign long suspected: continental Europe
needed the U.K. far more than the U.K. needed Europe.
The globalist dominoes will ideally begin to fall after Brexit as other
leading nations realize they have unwisely hitched their economic wagons to
parasites for the past several decades (see, e.g., the U.S.-Mexico
relationship in NAFTA).
...
Now that Brexit has shown that disentanglement is possibl... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 41 President Obama’s infamous remark that Britain would go to the “back of
the queue” in negotiating trade deals if it voted for Brexit has rank among
the most foolish diplomatic initiatives in presidential history. Not only
did it spark resentment in Britain that helped the Brexit vote, it is
turning out to spectacularly incorrect. Quite contrary to Obama’s
prediction, there is a bit of a land rush underway as trading powers are
eager to negotiate tarde deals with the fifth largest economy in thr ... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 42 Power Move: Brexit and Trump are Crushing Iran's Economy
Justin Holcomb |Posted: Jul 29, 2016 3:30 PM
Even after Barack Obama decided to lift financial sanctions on Iran in
January, the Islamic country is still having a hard time participating in
the global economy.
Recent events around the world, such as Great Britain's vote to leave the
European Union and the rise of Republican nominee Donald Trump, have
crippled Western governments from sealing long term financial contracts with
Iran.
"Iran ... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 44 Brexit民调最后交错领先，老头基本没领先过
: brexit民调密集吗？当时所有砖家都认为支持brexit的是一小撮反动分子。
: 最后结果出来，打了所有砖家的脸。
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r*****t
发帖数: 2860 | 45 我在英国呀。这个跟brexit很不一样。brexit没有具体的代表人物，所以建制内的人有
火没处发，brexit旗手boris johnson吓得都没敢参加总理竞争。
这个目标太明确了。虽然中产起来造反反对有钱人的全球化是迟早的事情。但估计这次
实在风险太大 |
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G*******h
发帖数: 4091 | 46 William Hill, one of the largest legal bookmakers in the world, warned days
ago that the betting patterns of this election look exactly like Brexit.
All the big bets they’ve taken are on Clinton. They report 71 percent of
the money is on Hillary. Just like Brexit.
But 65 percent of the actual bets are on Trump. The little guys are all
betting on Trump. Guess who determines the outcome of elections? The little
guys. They’re betting their $5 and $10 on Trump. Just like Brexit.
关于赔率问题我曾发帖问版上大神，但没有得... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 47 Donald Trump’s New York Times Interview: Full Transcript
By THE NEW YORK TIMESNOV. 23, 2016
President-elect Donald J. Trump during a meeting at The New York Times’s
offices in Manhattan on Tuesday.
Following is a transcript of President-elect Donald J. Trump’s interview on
Tuesday with reporters, editors and opinion columnists from The New York
Times. The transcription was prepared by Liam Stack, Jonah Engel Bromwich,
Karen Workman and Tim Herrera of The Times.
ARTHUR SULZBERGER Jr., publisher o... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 48 Volkswagen, U.S. Roll Out $14.7 Billion Emissions Settlement
By Alan Katz, Margaret Cronin Fisk, Kartikay Mehrotra
1 hour ago
Volkswagen AG has agreed to spend $14.7 billion to get hundreds of thousands
of emissions-cheating diesel vehicles off U.S. roads and placate regulators
, in settlements that set a U.S. auto-industry record but still leave VW
facing criminal and civil complaints on three continents.
Under the agreement announced on Tuesday, which still requires a judge’s
approval, car ... 阅读全帖 |
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 49 牛牛还有一宝，就是因为BREXIT风险（其实是扯淡），FED六月不加息，这样要拖到七
月底，还有人觉得七月没有发布会没有DOTS，干脆拖九月吧。因为BREXIT六月不加息，
6/23 BREXIT再通不过，双杀熊多好，好像1999年底因为Y2K风险释放流动性造成一切大
涨。。。 |
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 50 下周的VOL被BREXIT弄的奇贵，我是中期大熊，短期BREXIT事件看多，希望BREXIT赶快
过去，要不精分的太厉害 |
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