c*****n
发帖数: 6 | 1 最近不小心上了煤,估计版上持有煤的同学也有不少.今天稍微看了看,以ACI为例,谈谈近期操作的一些想法,如果你不想斩仓出局的话可以看看.
首先煤公司的股价应该是与煤价密切相关的.今年是energy的牛市,不过最近油,煤,天然气都有了很大的sell off,后面怎么走,谁也不知道,我的估计是短期内会平稳下来. NYMEX Coal Future从6月份100一直冲到140，最近回落到100左右。
ACI在7月1日巨量selling climax十分明显，最近大约回调了30%。
坏的方面
1. 前段时间泡沫有点大,整个energy sector处于sell off状态, money could continue to flow out
2. 还处于下降通道
好的方面
1. 从action, reaction swing来看,两条腿都已经差不多伸完全了
2. 最近连续三天下探52失败,下跌日量少于上涨日的量,成为短期底的可能性增大
3. 短期内oversold,现在价格53.5,与4月份突破前的价格相当,当时的coal future是90左右.
4. 根据我的系统,1个月内有8%以上反弹的概率 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 2 The drop is a dramatic reminder of the brutality with which the recession
cut demand for coal, lumber and other goods that make up the backbone of the
economy.
The nation's railroads had their worst year in decades in 2009, a dramatic
reminder of the brutality with which the recession damped demand for coal,
lumber and other goods that make up the backbone of the economy.
Freight trains carried 20% less cargo last year than in 2008, according to a
report by the Assn. of American Railroads, and t |
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R********s
发帖数: 208 | 3 time to buy!!! dude.
I don't think there are any fundamental changes on supply and demand of NG.
March is the shoulder month. No one is using NG to fire the peakers now. But
wait until May/June, the price of power will be determined by the price of
NG. Coal is out now, and utilites are scraping those old inefficient coal
units.
All in............ hehe...... |
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d******7
发帖数: 72 | 4 More bad news about MEE. it should drop another 10%.
S&P may cut Massey Energy rating after mine disaster
5:49pm EDT
NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Tuesday said it may cut
its ratings on Massey Energy deeper into junk territory, saying the
disaster at one of its coal mines could bring greater regulatory scrutiny
that would hurt the company's production.
At least 25 miners were killed at a West Virginia coal mine owned by Massey
in one of the deadliest U.S. mining disa |
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q********u
发帖数: 15519 | 5 BTU, PCX, MEE, ARCH COAL 等等，查阅一下COAL COMPANY可以找到更多的名字
MEE就是矿难出事的美国煤炭公司，最近股价大跌 |
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x******0
发帖数: 1058 | 6 If "STP的综合成本目前是$1.3/W左右" is true, building a solar power plant
with the same output is 1/2 less than a traditional coal power plant.
According my guess (i am not familiar with solar industry), operating cost
of a solar power plant has to be much lower than a coal power plant because
the solar power plant does not need fuel.
If solar power plants have so many advantages, why do I not see so many
solar power plants? |
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p*******t
发帖数: 620 | 7 Although the Harris mine represents a meagre 2 percent of Patriot Coal's
2010 sales view of 33 million to 35 million tons, the mine is crucial since
the quality of coal at the mine commands premium pricing. |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 8 nice job
better than my poor coal plane
i mean coal great, but amr sucks! |
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L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 9 i haven't been using my screen to look for breakouts regularly lately and
probably missed a lot of new breakouts. I'll just mention a few that i have
or traded recently
these are all mid-large caps that aim for mid-long term holding at good
entry point.
F - too much had been said. a good entry today.
BRCM - a break away gap tell me much higher upside, a true leader.
a little extended now, but buying a leading bull at the market break through
usually turn out good. like CMG at 180
CME - adding c... 阅读全帖 |
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O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 10 There will be a big chance to buy dip during the first 1-3 months,
this year, there will be a big chance to buy dip in oil, silver, gold, coal,
materials
I will buy more in ANR, PCX,SLV,UYM,BIDU,GM,F,CLF
BE PATIENT!!
Australia got a big flood, which need 10 year at least to recover,
then, you may buy wheat, coal,iron to play.
the market will be up some from here till the middle of the January,
then, let's sell, sell,,,,
then wait the dip...
then, buy...buy...buy...
don't buy the wrong one, such ... 阅读全帖 |
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m*****t
发帖数: 1987 | 11 啊，还以为是因为这条消息跌呢，多谢提醒。
"Puda Coal Announces Signing Agreements to Acquire Three Coal Mines Under
Jianhe Project" |
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b*****i
发帖数: 582 | 12 呵呵
+30.73%
Arch Coal to buy ICG for $3.4 billion
Read more: Arch Coal to buy ICG for $3.4 billion | St. Louis Business
Journal |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 13 Lady Coke has expertise in Ag and Coal.
Coke could be the namesake of coking coal. |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 14 thermal coal and metallurgical coal. |
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t**********e
发帖数: 254 | 15 三哥的简历， 真是一串“名校”啊。
Sharma was born in coal city of Dhanbad in Jharkhand state of India. His
father R. N. Sharma was chairman of Bharat Coking Coal Ltd., Dhanbad. Sharma
did his schooling from de Nobili school, Digwadih, Dhanbad. He received his
Bachelor's Degree from Birla Institute of Technology, Ranchi, India, a
Master's Degree from University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee and a Doctoral
degree in Business Management from Ohio State University. |
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x***u
发帖数: 1087 | 18 别怕。我也有好多的coal: ACI/ANR/BTU等。PCX很烂的ER还涨呢。
所有人对coal最悲观的时候正是入的时机。 |
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U********f
发帖数: 2482 | 19 For large-scale installations, prices below $1.00/watt are now common. In
some locations, PV has reached grid parity, the cost at which it is
competitive with coal or gas-fired generation. More generally, it is now
evident that, given a carbon price of $50/ton, which would raise the price
of coal-fired power by 5c/kWh, solar PV will be cost-competitive in most
locations. The declining price of PV has been reflected in rapidly growing
installations, totalling about 23 GW in 2011. Although some co... 阅读全帖 |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 20 steel , coal根本是两回事。
coal很多是电煤，受天然气价格不停降低影响，电煤卖不出去。
之所有说你胡扯，一个原因是你最近大牛市没怎么赚钱，对不对？不赚钱的人
的投资建议，是完全不可信的。
另外，要说煤炭股TA, 正在下降通道中，哪来的铸底成功一说？
你自己要买就买，不要再这里害死其他青蛙。 |
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o*******w
发帖数: 2310 | 21 The big signal two days referred to coal sector!
expect a big jump soon in coal! |
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k***a
发帖数: 2258 | 22 i dun agree with ur last sentence, check out the coal price in 2008 when the
oil was at peak.
As long as the economic picks up, coal price will raise again. |
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o***a
发帖数: 1373 | 23 The problem for coal industry is Gov. regulation and high labor cost.
I prefer natural gas over coal companies for a long run at this point of
time. |
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o***a
发帖数: 1373 | 26 The problem for coal industry is Gov. regulation and high labor cost.
I prefer natural gas over coal companies for a long run at this point of
time. |
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j****9
发帖数: 2295 | 29 Patriot Coal (PCX -28.6%) plunges and is pulling all coal stocks (KOL -1.8%)
lower, due to a report the company has fielded informal pitches from
bankruptcy advisors and that it aims to retain them even if it can't satisfy
its near-term financing needs
这个是什么意思。 field pitch, 棒球术语啊。 |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 30 I did buy coal, and will buy more.
However, whether coal is a good buy or not, is a separate issue.
Shipping cost is at historical low. You don't know it, that's OK. But don'
t pretend you know. |
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G****e
发帖数: 65 | 31 Patriot Coal (PCX) filed for bankruptcy protection on July 10. It wasn't
entirely surprising for investors who have been following the coal business
closely...
全文：
http://t.co/aDkluSTs |
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S**********r
发帖数: 553 | 32 ""首先，煤炭和天然气关系不大。""
我真不懂, 但我觉得你好像也不太懂. 反正我读的和你相反. 天然气翻番对煤因该非常
利好吧.
Teri Viswanath, a gas-market strategist at BNP Paribas, is predicting prices
will hit $4 per million BTUs by next year. If prices rise too high, some
utilities may revert to burning coal, which becomes a more profitable option
when natural gas goes well above $3, according to Morgan Stanley.
Utilities, including American Electric Power , say switching back to coal
wouldn't make sense unless natural gas were much higher than $3.
"... 阅读全帖 |
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s******e
发帖数: 696 | 33 because using natual gas is the quickest way to supply extra electricity ,
unlike coal and nuclear which have longer startup times, natual gas set the
price of electricity.
so if ng goes up, ultilities benefit.
but only if the ultility is burning cheaper energy like nuclear and coal.
the natural gas price need to be high for long enough time, , say at least 1
year, before the ultility company can benefit as most of them already
presold their electricity. |
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k******r
发帖数: 4011 | 34 Monday, December 10, 2:58 PM Coal companies power higher, perhaps
attributable to reports that damage at British Columbia's Westshore coal
terminal is taking longer to repair than expected. Teck Resources (TCK +2.7%
), a top Westshore customer, says it will continue to ship through the
second berth at the terminal but explore options for moving additional
tonnage elsewhere. |
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y******i
发帖数: 2584 | 35 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-31/shale-gas-revolution-s
Shale-Gas Revolution Spurs Wave of New U.S. Steel Plants: Energy
By Sonja Elmquist - Dec 31, 2012 5:28 PM ET
Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
Hydraulic fracturing of shale rock formations from Texas to West Virginia
has boosted supplies of gas and sent prices plunging by as much as half in
the past two years. Gas futures reached a decade low of $1.91 per million
British thermal units in April in New York trading.
The U.S. shale-gas revolut... 阅读全帖 |
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g*******l
发帖数: 73 | 36 碳税开征 will happen around 2020, but MATS will have big impact on more coal
retirements.
Coal production will rise a bit in 2013 and 2014 but drop a lot right as
MATS rule apporoaches . |
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g*******l
发帖数: 73 | 37 When gas price up beyond $4, the market will switch back to coal. But the
major risks for coal is EPA MATS rule 2015/2016 and Carbon Tax 2020. |
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m*****u
发帖数: 5534 | 38 中国如果大量增加进口，那么澳大利亚那点产量根本不够，还得靠美国本土，那么ANR
就有希望
目前美国东部煤矿根本都在亏钱卖。ANR第一季度的季报说，2013年的预期：
Guidance (in millions, except per-ton and percentage amounts)
2013
Average per Ton Sales Realization on Committed and Priced Coal Shipments
West $12.84
Eastern Steam $62.71
Eastern Metallurgical $113.25
Coal Shipments (million tons) 81 — 92
West 37 — 40
Eastern Steam 25 — 30
Eastern Metallurgical 19 — 22
West — Cost ... 阅读全帖 |
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m*****u
发帖数: 5534 | 39 再看一下ACI的2013年预期：
Average per Ton Sales Realization on Committed and Priced Coal Shipments
West $13.37
Eastern Steam $64.72
Eastern Metallurgical $93.37
Coal Shipments (million tons) 133 - 144
Steam 125 - 135
Eastern Metallurgical 8 - 9
West — Cost $10.75 — $11.50
East — Cost $66.00 — $72.00
Selling, General & Administrative Expense
(excluding merger-related expenses)
$130 — $140
Depletion, Depreciat... 阅读全帖 |
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m*****u
发帖数: 5534 | 40 再看一下BTU的2013年预期：
Coal Shipments (million tons) 230 - 250
US 180 - 190
Australia 33 - 36
•Stable 2013 costs per ton in the United States with expected U.S.
revenues per ton 5 percent to 10 percent below 2012 levels;
•Australian costs in the low $80 per ton range as cost containment
actions and productivity improvements partly mitigate external cost
pressures and a higher-cost metallurgical coal mix;
•Full-year depreciation, depletion... 阅读全帖 |
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l**********o
发帖数: 1573 | 41 Walter Energy (WLT) +6.5% premarket after reporting a strong start to the
year thanks to higher prices for coal used in steelmaking and rising
production. A Brean Capital analyst says that while the performance was not
surprising, many investors had feared the worst. Coal names are trading
higher: JRCC +4.3%, ANR +2.4%, ACI +1.8%, BTU +1.5%, CLF +1.1%. Read
comments |
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i**t
发帖数: 921 | 42 CLF is iron ore and metallurgical coal, not a coal company |
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u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 43 Asian Pacific Iron Core 54.71%
North American Iron Core 45.18%
North American Coal 0.10%
Asian Pacific Coal 0.00%
煤对它的股价没影响。 |
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z**k
发帖数: 945 | 44 大夫兄，煤炭上涨的前提必然是
天然气价格大幅上涨
然后发电厂switch back to coal (already 7% of switch back increase in coal
compare to last year)
炼钢煤不可能大幅增加，as China slow down
所以还是要耐心等待媒体炒作，analyst upgrade,大阳棒
然后介入 |
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P******l
发帖数: 1648 | 45 solar leading group
coal lagging group
一个天上 一个地下 long solar, short coal |
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b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 46 Walter Energy Inc. (WLT) has slashed its quarterly dividend payment by 92%,
as the coal producer continues to face weak prices for metallurgical coal.
The company will now pay a dividend of a penny per share, down from the
prior payout of 12.5 cents a share. The cut will save Walter Energy an
estimated $28.8 million a year. |
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D*********t
发帖数: 5748 | 47 coal company will be merged, buyout....
Buffet may buy coal company too....
let's all in! |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 48 给你组数据，发电的成本,megahour：
nuclear ($108)
coal ($100)
wind ($86,现在有$23的补助，$63)
natural gas ($67, $4的natural gas per mmbtu)
看看这个就知道，coal是死路一条 |
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V*****2
发帖数: 7930 | 49 KWh generated per unit of fuel used:
•1,870 kWh per Ton of Coal or 0.9 kWh per Pound of Coal
•125 kWh per Mcf (1,000 cubic feet) of Natural Gas
1度电零售价0.15美元，这样一单位天然气可以产生18.75美元的零售价。一吨煤炭58美
元，可以产生280美元的零售价的电。煤炭价/电价=1/4.83。如果天然气以5来算，就是
1/3.75。如果天然气也以1/4.83算，就是3.88美元/单位。
因为煤炭运输成本高，所以越靠近3.88，发电厂就越愿意使用天然气。但是差得越大，
就越愿意使用煤炭。 |
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S**********3
发帖数: 188 | 50 觉得大家都是好意，一边是Park想带着大家赚钱，另一边是想善意的提醒青蛙还是要有
自己的判断不要盲从。没必要针锋相对，大家和气生财。有这个精力一起分析一下下面
的走势好了。意见总会有不同的，最后还是得自己决定是买是卖还有操作时间。
之前Park说这波是反转趋势我觉得不对，最多是反弹（我主要是FA,自己TA很烂）。我
判断的依据是production没有减少，而且SpringRock上个月上调过一次产量预期。但是
后来Park的TA的判断基本还是准确的，加上这周Texas和Marcellus产量都有所减少，所
以这次也相信他的判断，这周report出之前我跟了一些，昨天跌过之后又补了一些。现
在仓位在30%左右。我想Park也没有预计到ng会跌破2.75的阻力位。
继续往前看，我觉得下周五之前应该会反弹，这周五或者下周一二应该都可以入点，看
已有仓位而定。如果谨慎起见可以等下周一二ng价格起稳。如果等不及今天收盘前入点
可以赌下周一高开。因为虽然eia报告是周四出，但是行业内部周末就有自己的storage
估算报告了，如果这周产量真的有所下降，那周一几乎一定会高开了。Demand方面，电... 阅读全帖 |
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