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全部话题 - 话题: commod
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c*********d
发帖数: 9770
1
张春桥:论对资产阶级的全面专政(On Exercising All-Round Dictatorship Over
the Bourgeoisie)
无产阶级专政问题,是长期以来马克思主义同修正主义斗争的焦点。列宁说“只有承认
阶级斗争、同时也承认无产阶级专政的人,才是马克思主义者。”
THE question of the dictatorship of the proletariat has long been the focus
of the struggle between Marxism and revisionism. Lenin said, “Only he is a
Marxist who extends the recognition of the class struggle to the recognition
of the dictatorship of the proletariat.” And it is precisely to enable us
to go by Marxism and not revisionism in both theory an... 阅读全帖
c*********d
发帖数: 9770
2
【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: chinabbsdad (张果老他爹), 信区: Military
标 题: 论林彪反党集团的社会基础(汉英对照)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Nov 22 09:43:14 2013, 美东)
论林彪反党集团的社会基础
On the Social Basis of the Lin Piao Anti-Party Clique
姚文元
by Yao Wen-yuan
[This article is reprinted from Peking Review, #10, March 7, 1975, pp. 5-10.]
毛主席在讲到必须搞清楚无产阶级对资产阶级专政的问题时明确指出:“林彪一类如上
台,搞资本主义很容易。因此,要多看点马列主义的书。”这就提出了一个极其重要的
问题:即“林彪一类”的阶级本质是什么?林彪反党集团产生的社会基础是什么?把这
个问题弄清楚,对于巩固无产阶级专政、防止资本主义复辟,对于坚定地执行党在社会
主义历史阶段的基本路线,一步一步地造成资产阶级既不能存在也不能再产生的条件,
无疑是十分... 阅读全帖
R****a
发帖数: 6858
3
适应没有食物的生活
——华尔街、英国石油、生物-乙醇以及数百万人的死亡
威廉·恩道尔 (《粮食危机:运用粮食武器获取世界霸权》作者*)
李云译
2011年6月29日
我过世的祖父,是一位有挪威血统、强壮的美国农场主后代,后来他成了一位报纸
编辑,在第一次世界大战中成为一位投身政治的人。他常常说:“只要时间许可,人可
以适应相当多的事情,除了死亡……但是如果经常练习的话,人也可以适应死亡。”看
,似乎天意如此, 看起来,我们人类中的绝大部分,就要验证那句谚语了,通过我们
是否能够得到每天的面包这件事情来验证。
食物,是少数几种使人们维持生命的可笑东西之一。我们会理所当然地以为,家门
口的超市会永远卖我们喜欢吃的食物,而且还以合理的、我们能支付得起的价格充足供
应下去。然而,在没有充足事物供应的情况下生存,是未来我们中千万人或者上亿的人
要面对的前景。
从某种意义上讲,这是个真正的悖论。我们这个星球可以为数倍于当今人口的人,提
供营养充足的天然食品。但是,由于过去半个世纪或者说更长时间建立起来的工业化农
业的破坏,食物不足的情况将会出现。
到时候我们的世界要如何面对未来... 阅读全帖
c*****g
发帖数: 21627
4
翻译出来的只是一个摘要
全文见:
http://www.garynorth.com/public/11828.cfm
Bitcoins: The Second Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History
Gary North - November 29, 2013
I hereby make a prediction: Bitcoins will go down in history as the most
spectacular private Ponzi scheme in history. It will dwarf anything dreamed
of by Bernard Madoff. (It will never rival Social Security, however.)
To explain my position, I must do two things. First, I will describe the
economics of every Ponzi scheme. Second, I will explain the Austr... 阅读全帖
w*****s
发帖数: 2689
5
来自主题: JobMarket版 - 敦和投资2013年招聘信息
替朋友发贴。不要PM我!有问题请致信至下文里的email。谢谢!
公司概况
浙江敦和投资有限公司(简称:敦和投资)是一家致力于国内外资本市场投资的专业化
资产管理公司。其前身宁波敦和投资控股有限公司成立于2009年7月,2011年迁址杭州
,变更为现名。近年来,在公司创始人叶先生的引领下,敦和投资已经成长为具有卓越
投资能力、独特投资理念和雄厚资本实力的高端金融投资和资产管理企业,其投资领域
涉及国内外股票、债券、货币、商品及其衍生品等跨市场、跨类别资产,尤其是在中国
期货市场独领风骚。
敦和团队
目前,敦和投资不仅已拥有数位国内外一流的投资专家,而且组建了30人的投资、研究
和交易管理专业化团队,并建立了适应资产管理业务有效开展的前台、中台和后台管理
架构。
一、农产品研究员(1-2名)
职位描述:
1、基础农产品一到两个品种相关产业研究;
2、独立地建立产业研究框架,构建、追踪产业数据;
3、建立调研体系,并做产量、消费、流通领域草根调研;
4、与外部研究服务机构建立良好的工作关系,支持内部研究;
5、撰写产业研究分析、投资分析报告(投资标的为股票、期货、期权等各类衍生... 阅读全帖
l******n
发帖数: 9344
6
来自主题: Stock版 - GS 2011 prediction
Goldman Sachs 2011 Forecast: Stocks, Gold, Oil Higher
Goldman Sachs is bullish on the U.S. economy for 2011, and forecasts U.S.
stocks will see their third straight year of gains.
The investment banking powerhouse sees the S&P 500 [.SPX Loading... ()
] gaining nearly 25 percent to a level of 1450 in the next 12 months,
fueled by strong corporate profits, easy monetary policies and an improving
U.S. economy.
Goldman [GS Loading... () ] sees stocks gaining as the U.S. economic
gro... 阅读全帖
o**y
发帖数: 3065
7
来自主题: Stock版 - 对今天市场的看法
大家都注意到今天几乎所有的commodities(包括金银农)都大跌,美债也跌,美元也跌,唯有美股大涨。这里头包含丰富的信息。假设这是一个新的牛市的开始的话,那可以比较一下去年8月以后QE2带来的牛市。当时美股和commodities都大涨,原因是FED给市场送来了新的liquidity。而现在的状况是commodities和美股走反指,说明钱在从commodities暂时流入了美股。
短期来看,市场对抄底美股信心极其浓厚,把一部分钱从金银农这些hard assets转移出来了。但是问题是这样的涨幅能持续多久。想一想金银农还能往下跌多少来支持美股?美元最近才突破了76的阻力,目前正回调到76上方,这到底是在consolidate还是昙花一现的反弹而已?
做一个形象的比喻,如果有一个大碗代表金融市场,两侧分别是commodities和股票,碗的上方是流着水的水龙头,代表各国央行。去年的状况是水龙头打开,使得碗里每个地方都水涨船高。而现在的状况是水龙头相对去年关小了,但是碗在剧烈晃动,水在碗的两侧来回晃荡,今天大概是碗侧向了美股,下周说不定又侧回了commodities和美元。总而言之,像... 阅读全帖
o**y
发帖数: 3065
8
来自主题: Stock版 - 要想做空的,EDZ比FAZ更刺激
commodities要跌我早就预见到,见老帖
http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Stock/33823831_0.html
commodities要跌的原因是美元要反弹,见老帖
http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Stock/33741791_0.html
美元反弹可能造成流动性紧缩,见老帖
http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Stock/33797893_0.html
http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Stock/33799713_0.html
流动性紧缩会造成所有asset class下跌,先前涨的最高的commodities首当其冲,对经
济前景的不确定性,更加剧commodities下跌。大部分星星国家都是卖commodities的,
流动性紧缩当然是大跌,参考08年。另外大家对中国开始担忧,如果中国放缓,
commodities更跌。这样说就很清楚了吧?
a**********2
发帖数: 355
9
微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MDQzNDIyNQ==&mid=200081094&
Goldman Sachs Research
Global Markets Daily: EM FX: China slowdown risk not fully priced
Published 06:05 AM Tue Mar 18 2014
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
Chinese growth has slowed significantly; sequential IP growth in Jan-Feb was
near 0%.
A clear shift back towards CNY TWI appreciation may not occur until activity
recovers.
But, in our view, positioning for a wea... 阅读全帖
W***n
发帖数: 11530
10
来自主题: Stock版 - YTD top 100 mutual funds
Sym Name Last Change Percent YTD
Percent Time Links
GCCUX Goldman Sachs Commodity Strategy R6 11.91 +0.01 +0.08%
+262.01% 11/25/15
GCCIX Goldman Sachs Commodity Strategy Fund 11.91 +0.02 +0.17%
+203.29% 11/25/15
GCCTX Goldman Sachs Commodity Strategy Fd Cl 11.91 +0.01 +0.08%
+203.23% 11/25/15
GSCAX Goldman Sachs Commodity Strategy Fund 11.77 +0.01 +0.09%
+202.56% 11/25/15
GCCRX ... 阅读全帖
H****w
发帖数: 1632
11
来自主题: Football版 - Billy Water And The Computer Group
Billy Walter and the computer group:
The Arrests
He was in the bed sleeping when the two men walked into his bedroom.
Billy
Walters sleeps in a big clean bed in Las Vegas, in a small but elaborate
home renovated to his liking, with palm trees and white flowerpots and
two
satellite dishes in the yard, and four large televisions in the den, and
a
security guard who sits just out of sight behind the shrubs across the
street. This environment was disrupted early last Jan. 5, when the two
strangers i... 阅读全帖
l****z
发帖数: 29846
12
来自主题: USANews版 - Gasoline and Dollars: Supply and Demand
By Steve McCann
Gasoline has exceeded or approached $5.00 per gallon in some parts of the
United States long before the normal peak travel season has begun. Already
the politicians, headline writers, and some cable and talk show pundits are
pointing to the usual suspects. But they have avoided or are unaware of
where the fault actually lies.
One of the foundational tenets of economics is what is known as the law of
supply and demand. Normally whenever a product or commodity is in short
supply... 阅读全帖
a***r
发帖数: 146
13
来自主题: Investment版 - 2012 markets: Expect ups and downs (ZT)
2012 markets: Expect ups and downs
BY Jurrien Timmer, Co-Manager of Fidelity® Global Strategies Fund,
Fidelity Viewpoints — 12/21/11
Consider U.S. stocks, high-yield corporate, and floating-rate high-income
bonds.
It’s been quite a year, one of violent mood swings but little overall
direction. We seem to be in a time warp where everything happens faster and
faster. Everything seems to be correlated. There are very few places to hide
, and even those places don’t feel like good options anymor... 阅读全帖
P***0
发帖数: 368
14
There are two things to sell: commodity and non-commodity.
For the time sake, I would like to discuss about commodity here.
Businesses are for profit, and as long as the profit is justifiable that
should be fine. For commodity (e.g., most cars in competitive market
segments), it is arrogant for dealers to wishfully think the other is
ignorant to know the fair price. It is equally arrogant for buyers to
wishfully think that a dealer is in the business for charity. The purpose
of dealer is to f... 阅读全帖
o**y
发帖数: 3065
15
来自主题: Stock版 - QE3也许也不太能救股市了
先说说目前的形势,QE2这个月底就结束了,FED暂时承诺不会有QE3。如果不立即出现
QE3的结果就是股市下跌,金银不上不下。当股市下跌20%以上,FED自然还是会说这样
下去不是办法,还是只有量化宽松,再来一剂吗啡才能缓解痛苦,于是换个名称挂羊头
卖狗肉。正如教授预测,"QE3"会在金秋10月出来,这个偶表示十分赞同。
会有QE在我来看本来就没有悬念,因此不是这里的重点。接下来的QE和以前的QE会有几
个方面的不同
1. 投资者的sentiment和三年前完全不同了,99年Jim Rogers看好commodities,08年
Peter Schiff说金融股是toxic的时候,很多人都觉得他们是nuts。去amazon看看,08
年前出来的投资方面的书籍,谈commodities的是少数,说美元崩溃的更是少数。可是
现在你去看,满眼都是这种书。这代表的意思就是相当多的人和这个板上的人想法都一
样,那就是美元贬值是将来10年投资的主线,这已经是old idea了。如果现在才意识到
的话,那代表可能只能catch剩下50%一下的uptrend了。
2. QE1使股市上涨的幅度大于QE2... 阅读全帖
B**********r
发帖数: 7517
16
来自主题: Stock版 - 对今天市场的看法
Why is this nonsense post marked?
A bull market can have different forms. The commodity bull market since
august 2010 was not a healthy bull market. The true bull market sees strong
$, strong financials, and gold like shit. We just started a slow, rational,
and healthy bull market.
I am bull inside. You bear try to distort a bull market.

也跌,唯有美股大涨。这里头包含丰富的信息。假设这是一个新的牛市的开始的话,那
可以比较一下去年8月以后QE2带来的牛市。当时美股和commodities都大涨,原因是FED
给市场送来了新的liquidity。而现在的状况是commodities和美股走反指,说明钱在从
commodities暂时流入了美股。
移出来... 阅读全帖
h*******u
发帖数: 37
17
Copper Traders See Rally Ending as China Use Slows: Commodities
Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Copper traders and analysts are forecasting an end to
the biggest weekly rally since at least 1986 on concern demand will slow in
China while Europe’s lingering financial crisis limits growth.
Eleven of 23 people surveyed by Bloomberg say copper will drop next week,
eight predicted a gain, and four said prices will be little changed. The
last time respondents were mostly bearish, on Sept. 23, the metal slumped... 阅读全帖
m******e
发帖数: 536
18
刚出来的中国进出口数据,看来不好,进口继续两位数的下跌,而且下跌幅度加大,出口也
是下跌.估计明天大盘跌.而且明天晚上还要出中国CPI,PPI数据,明天盘后银行ER的也要
出了.如果
这些消息都不好,本周大盘够呛.
Bloomberg News
October 12, 2015 — 10:04 PM EDT Updated on October 12, 2015 — 10:35 PM EDT
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
Imports plunged 17.7 percent from a year earlier in yuan terms
Lower commodity prices, tepid domestic demand hurting imports
Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
China’s imports extended the longest losing streak in six years,
underscoring the headwinds to global growth... 阅读全帖
n********n
发帖数: 2248
19
呵呵,看看这篇评论,天然气还是很有希望嘛
Today I’m going to discuss three main reasons why natural gas prices (in
the United States) haven’t participated in the commodity boom of 2010.
The first reason is that natural gas prices are loosely tied to oil prices.
Yes, oil prices rose over the past year, but only by about 10%. In order for
oil prices to significantly buoy natural gas prices, we’ll need to see
another huge ramp up like we did in the summer of 2008. Those higher oil
prices (above the $100 mark – as an es... 阅读全帖
v*******g
发帖数: 334
20
Joining CICC
CICC’s outstanding achievements are attributable to our team’s dedication,
professionalism, innovation and determination to be the best in our
business. CICC draws talents both domestically and internationally and has
built a professional team with valuable working experience, multicultural
perspective and elite educational backgrounds.
To enhance both overseas and domestic expanding strategies, CICC offers
numbers of positions in its core business departments as well as some key
su... 阅读全帖
s**********8
发帖数: 25265
21
http://www.raps.org/Regulatory-Focus/News/2014/10/08/20511/FDA-Announces-Major-Regulatory-Changes-With-Specialization-a-Key-Focus/?utm_source=Email&utm_medium=Informz&utm_campaign=Weekly%2DUpdate
Regulatory functions at the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) are set to
undergo a major overhaul in the coming months after a year-long effort by
the agency recommended making scores of improvements to the way the agency
is structured and regulates products.BackgroundIn September 2013, FDA
announce... 阅读全帖
y*****l
发帖数: 5997
22
来自主题: _Stockcafeteria版 - 美国国会或授权提上限 扫清QE3障碍
What Happens After QE2 Ends?
The Fed’s highly controversial QE2 program is scheduled to end in June
By Ben Baden
Posted: March 15, 2011
http://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/mutual-funds/art
The Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing, which began in
November and is commonly referred to as QE2, is slated to end in June.
Experts expect the Fed to finish the program, in which it pledged to buy $
600 billion worth of treasury bonds to keep interest rates low and help spur
len... 阅读全帖
y*****l
发帖数: 5997
23
What Happens After QE2 Ends?
The Fed’s highly controversial QE2 program is scheduled to end in June
By Ben Baden
Posted: March 15, 2011
http://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/mutual-funds/art
The Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing, which began in
November and is commonly referred to as QE2, is slated to end in June.
Experts expect the Fed to finish the program, in which it pledged to buy $
600 billion worth of treasury bonds to keep interest rates low and help spur
len... 阅读全帖
w*********r
发帖数: 42116
24
WTO可以判决谁对谁错, 但是没有惩罚措施, 双方或者多方不满时, 各自确定惩罚措施.
具体的事例可以参考美国巴西关于棉花价格的协定.
关于压地物价, 我们又要感谢美国政府了, 由BLS定期公布CPI. 没有数据显示压低物价
呀.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Percent changes in CPI
Un-adjusted 12-mos. ended Oct. 2010
Food 1.4
Food at home 1.4
Food away from 1.4
Energy 5.9
Energy commodities 9.9
Gasoline (all types) 9.5
Fuel oil 14.5
Energy services 0.9
Electricity 0.6
Utility (piped) gas service 1.9
Commodities less food and energy commodities .1
New vehicles .4
Used cars and trucks 8.6
App... 阅读全帖
w*********r
发帖数: 42116
25
我在MINNESOTA住, 每月700 USD, FOOD AT HOME是可信的.
http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2010/11/10/food-costs-on-the-rise/
CPI也可以从政府渠道获得.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Percent changes in CPI
Un-adjusted 12-mos. ended Oct. 2010
Food 1.4
Food at home 1.4
Food away from 1.4
Energy 5.9
Energy commodities 9.9
Gasoline (all types) 9.5
Fuel oil 14.5
Energy services 0.9
Electricity 0.6
Utility (piped) gas service 1.9
Commodities less food and energy commodities .1
New vehicles .4
Used cars and trucks ... 阅读全帖
w*********r
发帖数: 42116
26
没有什么值得质疑的. 关键是TG是否公布了每项的统计变化. 如果TG公布了, 你不去看
, 那就是自己的问题了.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Consumer Price Index - October 2010
Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.2 percent before
seasonal adjustment.
Percent changes in CPI
Un-adjusted 12-mos. ended Oct. 2010
Food 1.4
Food at home 1.4
Food away from 1.4
Energy 5.9
Energy commodities 9.9
Gasoline (all types) 9.5
Fuel oil 14.5
Energy services 0.9
Electricity 0.6
Utility (piped) gas service 1.9
Commodities less food ... 阅读全帖
J*******r
发帖数: 379
27
来自主题: Military版 - 美国现在食品涨价太凶了
上网上随便搜搜再说话不好么?
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Seasonally adjusted changes from

preceding month

Un
-

adjusted
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May 12-
mos.
2010 2010 ... 阅读全帖
i***z
发帖数: 7508
28
2010年,中国出口产品1, 577 billion $. GDP 5,930 billion$. 出口产品占据GDP的
26%。
US-China Trade Statistics and China's World Trade Statistics
Table 1: China's Trade with the United States, 2001-10 ($ billion)
Notes: *Calculated by USCBC. US exports reported on a free-alongside-ship
basis; imports on a general customs-value basis.
Source: US Department of Commerce; US International Trade Commission (ITC)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2009 2010
US exports 1... 阅读全帖
y*******o
发帖数: 6632
29
commodity has very high risk. If you take a look at the price graph of
commodity from 1990 to 2000, the commodity to dollar is depreciation a lot.
How can you hedge the risk?
Even if the commodity to dollar is appreciation, how can you make sure the
gold to CNY is appreciation?
Surely, I agree gold is a good investment choice, but now, may not be a good
time, can his father bear and 3 year loss and hold till the investment
becomes profitable?
If the payout is inflation adjusted and his father is... 阅读全帖
b******r
发帖数: 1619
30
Global investors are losing faith in China, giving the country’s markets
their worst rating in more than two years in the latest Bloomberg poll.
About a quarter of those surveyed say they expect Chinese markets to be
among the worst performers over the next year. That’s the highest negative
reading that the country has received in the quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll
since January 2010 and was second only to the 45 percent rating that the
European Union received in the Sept. 4 survey.
Enlarge ima... 阅读全帖
q*a
发帖数: 2330
31
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commodity (futures) 于 (Mon Jul 30 19:46:00 2012, 美东) 提到:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/jul/30/ye-shiwen-world-rec
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
digua (姚之FAN) 于 (Mon Jul 30 19:49:54 2012, 美东) 提到:
典型的loser。以前还有800M混合泳,最后50m比Ye更快的呢。
http://www.mitbbs.com/article/Olympics/31551717_0.html
"As for her final 50m, Rebecca Adlington has done a faster final 50m at the
end of an 800m race (28.91 Shanghai 2011) and I don't recall the same
co... 阅读全帖
P*********0
发帖数: 4321
32
这个好像瘸子走路怪地不平。我就不说我的观点了。看看格林斯潘怎么说的
In March 2008, Greenspan wrote an article for the Financial Times'
Economists' Forum in which he said that the 2008-financial crisis in the
United States is likely to be judged as the most wrenching since the end of
World War II. In it he argued: "We will never be able to anticipate all
discontinuities in financial markets." He concluded: "It is important,
indeed crucial, that any reforms in, and adjustments to, the structure of
markets and regulation not inhibi... 阅读全帖
l****z
发帖数: 29846
33
来自主题: USANews版 - U.S Sues To Shutdown Intrade
November 28, 2012 by Doug Johnson
From Fox Business:
Hours after being sued by U.S. regulators for violating commodities laws
, online prediction market Intrade told U.S. residents on Monday to
immediately begin shutting down their accounts due to “legal and regulatory
pressures.”
The Dublin-based company had recently grown popular with investors as a
way to gauge opinions on everything from election outcomes to acts of war.
…Earlier in the day the Commodities Futures Trading Commi... 阅读全帖
l****z
发帖数: 29846
34
The Next Shoe’s Falling Next Door——–Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea
Exports To China Imperiled
by Wall Street Journal • August 13, 2015
By Anjani Trivedi and Chao Deng at The Wall Street Journal
The currencies of Asian emerging markets that trade heavily with China fell
sharply after Beijing devalued its currency, as investors bet a weaker yuan
will add to pressures on their deteriorating economies.
Investors have pushed the currencies of South Korea and Malaysia down over 2
% in the past... 阅读全帖
w****l
发帖数: 6122
35
想抄底的同学最好还是多存钱吧。
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/254354/the_dismal_out
The Dismal Outlook for the US and Global Economy and the Financial Markets
Email PrintShare
Delicious Digg Facebook reddit Technorati Nouriel Roubini | Nov 11, 2008
Here is a below brief summary of many of the points that I have made for the
last few months on the outlook for the U.S. and global economy and for
financial markets:
The U.S. will experience its most severe recession since WWII, much worse
and longer and... 阅读全帖
d***y
发帖数: 2567
36
Simon Johnson at Project Syndicate says the brewing currency wars are not
just China's fault, though it "certainly bears some responsibility." He
mostly blames "Europe's refusal to reform global economic governance,
compounded by years of political mismanagement and self-deception in the
United States. ... the US has run record current-account deficits over the
past decade, as the political elite -- Republican and Democrats alike --
became increasingly comfortable with overconsumption. These def... 阅读全帖
z***e
发帖数: 5600
37
Commodity price = what do you need to pay to have it today?
Commodity stocks: higher commodity price today = higher earnings today
however the stock price need years of high commodity prices to sustain, or,
"higher for longer". There are also execution risks in the stock
Take a look at energy stocks vs. crude oil price in 2008. Energy stocks
clearly peaked before oil reached over the 140 peak
x****7
发帖数: 895
38
来自主题: Stock版 - 对今天市场的看法
赞通俗易懂。

也跌,唯有美股大涨。这里头包含丰富的信息。假设这是一个新的牛市的开始的话,那
可以比较一下去年8月以后QE2带来的牛市。当时美股和commodities都大涨,原因是FED
给市场送来了新的liquidity。而现在的状况是commodities和美股走反指,说明钱在从
commodities暂时流入了美股。
移出来了。但是问题是这样的涨幅能持续多久。想一想金银农还能往下跌多少来支持美
股?美元最近才突破了76的阻力,目前正回调到76上方,这到底是在consolidate还是
昙花一现的反弹而已?
,碗的上方是流着水的水龙头,代表各国央行。去年的状况是水龙头打开,使得碗里每
个地方都水涨船高。而现在的状况是水龙头相对去年关小了,但是碗在剧烈晃动,水在
碗的两侧来回晃荡,今天大概是碗侧向了美股,下周说不定又侧回了commodities和美
元。总而言之,像去年8月以后的那种牛市,还没有到来。
o**y
发帖数: 3065
39
来自主题: Stock版 - 持币观望
两个因素导致最近commodities走势不好,
1.美元上涨
2.经济前景不明朗,对农业石油需求变少,而对黄金避险需求增加,所以commodities
内部出现分化。但是随着美元上涨,黄金向上动能会变小,可能会回调。最终
commodities走势重新归一。
Rogers说的都是extra long term,very big picture,他10年前就在大批买
commdities了,那时候我们在哪里啊。。。
我们只能等commodities的熊市的时候买,现在才开始了三四个月。
o**y
发帖数: 3065
40
来自主题: Stock版 - 疯狂扫入贵金属Rhodium (XRH0)
Dull and dusty rhodium has its charms
martin mittelstaedt
From Thursday's Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Aug. 03, 2011 5:42PM EDT
Last updated Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2011 8:41AM EDT
4 comments
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While many investors clamour to buy gold and silver, there is a little-
known precious metal that may deserve a look: rhodium.
Widely used in automobile pollution-control devices, rhodium holds the
distinction of being the rarest and most expensiv... 阅读全帖
k********8
发帖数: 7948
41
来自主题: Stock版 - The Surprises of 2012 (ZT)
http://www.blackstone.com/the-firm/market-commentary/blog-detai
01/04/2012
The Surprises of 2012
All this began to change in October. Data for the U.S. economy began to
improve and the equity market moved back to where it had started the year.
European leaders, recognizing the urgent need for a solution to the
sovereign debt crisis, began to talk of a treaty change that would move the
continent towards a fiscal union. By year-end the 2011 Surprises looked
much better. A blogger, analyzing ea... 阅读全帖
k********8
发帖数: 7948
42
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-einhorn/fed-interest-rates_
A Jelly Donut is a yummy mid-afternoon energy boost.
Two Jelly Donuts are an indulgent breakfast.
Three Jelly Donuts may induce a tummy ache.
Six Jelly Donuts -- that's an eating disorder.
Twelve Jelly Donuts is fraternity pledge hazing.
My point is that you can have too much of a good thing and overdoses are
destructive. Chairman Bernanke is presently force-feeding us what seems like
the 36th Jelly Donut of easy money and wondering... 阅读全帖
w********2
发帖数: 16371
43
来自主题: Stock版 - 我来拉个偏架哈
教授和虎子还有commodity 不对付了
教授是小母牛发了几个小红花的时候闻名起来的,文笔很好,对古板也很关心,
虎子是几年前玩笑我反指的时候我认识的,commodity 是在版面分享很多经验看法的时
候看到的
我对虎子贺commodity 都很有信心的相信,对他们也都很欣赏
对教授也相信不是恶人,对于教授说一句青蛙活该,我觉得心态不好,说自己深感受伤
是开玩笑,觉得说法不合适但也估计是被粪坑气出来的。
这里的矛盾在于教授分享经验,指导青蛙,
分享和指导是两回事情,分享几乎无害,指导的时候虎子觉得需要有track record
大盘能玩儿的转的不容易,好多人都是苦心研究大盘的,比如雨夜,秋月,bobobobo
等等好多
c帅也是指导的时候赶上雷曼倒台一个错被人善意恶意的一直bash。
我基本上根据对虎子的了解,如果操作,比如做emini,这里能比过他的不多,(限一
两个contract哈),所以他来提醒教授放低身价,免得误导青蛙,我看了不觉得不妥。
如果说指导或者有信心,那么把看法用操作或者清晰的方式表达清楚,这样不会有含糊
的你觉得说的特对,别人觉得是反指。虎子前一次的提法是如果教... 阅读全帖
w********2
发帖数: 16371
44
实话实说,我不觉得自己有什么资格当超级大牛,我做这个投机,做的不好的地方估计
比虎子commodity 或者教授都多些,其中甜苦自己心知肚明哈。
我的确最后对于引用俱乐部上嘲讽了这类脱裤子放屁的做法,也算是“bash” 了教授
吧, 要自己小俱乐部记笔记,或者和几个朋友讨论就那样做吧,在版面上对了顶,错
了删,再对了来说在俱乐部里有提过。。 这个有点难看哈。
之前我只是让他去掉那个说青蛙亏钱活该,不能算bash。
对于比较针对教授,其实更多的是看不过教授开始针对虎子和commodity,这两个我觉
得都是古板上很好的人了,发pick 的人我注意的多了,包括fa的,包括ta 的,pump
penny 的,推崇momo 的,虎子的多数都有注意timing和入点,当然都有错的,但算是
在版面发言也比较有责任感的了。
commodity 的分享随便几片都些的很好呀,如果commodity 说以前还来过分享过,那估
计是谁谁谁,也是分享了很多的。所以我算是给他们说话吧。
对于教授的发文,还是可以很直接的指出的一些问题的, 简单一个是操作的品种是不
值得推荐的,古板貌似深层讨论过这些东西不要随便碰... 阅读全帖
m********o
发帖数: 2088
45
Professor and nothing there is commodity does not deal with the
Professor Heifer made a few little red flower is known, well-written, are
concerned about old-fashioned,
Nothing is a joke, I mean, I knew a few years ago, when the commodity is
share many experiences in layout view
Waiting to see
I am very confident nothing he commodity believes that to be loved
Professor also believe it is not wicked, professors say frog deserves it, I
think that mentality is not good, said he was deeply hurt
Is a... 阅读全帖
c****w
发帖数: 2830
46
跟commodity挂钩的股票,所属的commodity只要不是明显的uptrend,尽量避免long。
个人看法。
股票的轮回周期要比commodity快的多,commodity动不动就是一年到十年才风水轮流转
一次,不值得。
T**y
发帖数: 1024
47
Oil Prices: Four Experts Size Up the Energy Market
Four experts explain what’s ahead and highlight the best investment
opportunities in the energy sector.
February 14, 2015
Perhaps the biggest surprise of 2014 was the sharp decline in oil prices.
Black gold fell almost 60% from its summer peak of $107 to a low of $44 in
January, before enjoying a nice bounce to a recent $53. The reverberations—
good and bad—are being felt around the world, from the oil kingdoms of the
Middle East to Argentina, R... 阅读全帖
f*******e
发帖数: 5277
48
Thanks for explaining all these. So basically TAL is providing services for
commodity. Commodity has been in a big bear market for quite some time
therefore TAL got hit pretty bad. I wouldn't really blame any "market maker"
for the dive. It matches with the big picture pretty well and the sell off
is at least short term justified.
What I think is, we need to see commodity enters a new bull market to see
TAL goes up. When will that happen I do not know. The commodity bear market
is largely attrib... 阅读全帖
W***n
发帖数: 11530
49
来自主题: Stock版 - How some oil speculators r doing
Black box hedge funds lead winners from oil collapse
Reuters
13 minutes ago
By Simon Jessop and Barani Krishnan
LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - To make money from the sharp fall in oil prices
this year, it helped if you weren't human.
While a handful of big name traders have profited from some of oil's 35
percent plunge, it has been computer-based or "systematic" funds which have
captured much of the spoils.
These black box funds use programs to follow various asset classes and look
to latch on to m... 阅读全帖
W***n
发帖数: 11530
50
The World's Richest People Got Poorer This Year
Devon Pendleton
DevonPendleton
Jack Witzig
December 28, 2015 — 7:34 PM CST
The richest people on Earth became a bit poorer this year.
The world’s 400 wealthiest individuals shed $19 billion in 2015, according
to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Falling commodities prices and signs of
a slower-growing China spooked investors around the world leading to the
first annual decline for the daily wealth index since its 2012 debut.
"After three great year... 阅读全帖
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