a********a
发帖数: 99 | 1 # Gann, W.D. - Mathematical Formula For Market Predictions.pdf
# Gann, W.D. - Wall Street Stock Selector.pdf
# Gann, W.D. - Method for forcasting the stock market.doc
# Gann, W.D. - 1922 Forecast.gif
# Gann, W.D. - 45 Years In Wall Street.pdf
# Gann, W.D. - Annual Forecasts 1919-1922.pdf
# Gann, W.D. - Annual Stock Forecast 1929.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Astrology 2.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Astrology 3.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Astrology.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Circle Chart.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Coffee 1954.pdf
# Gann, W.D... 阅读全帖 |
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g******u
发帖数: 30 | 2 不懂还是不要搞。 soft commodities usually have very strong term structure. i
would recommend commodities with small backwardation, like sugar. avoid
commodities with strong contangos, like rice or wheat. cotton and corn
have very strong backwardation, which might make you lots of money in the
short term if u are long, but need to put a tight stop, because when it
drops, it is going to be big. |
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G*******s
发帖数: 10605 | 3 我的看法：美国目前Fed的政策就是让美元贬值增加美国公司海外竞争力，那么商品价
格当然会不断上涨，金子已经涨了但是银却很相对滞后，其实银自己本身的囤积价值比
金子差多了，只是这个比例相差太大了，总要追涨的
追涨这些commodity最大的风险是加息，如果现在Fed宣布开始加息，那么commodity一
个月内跌30%
银和股市的相关性？很小，它只是整个commodity里面权重较小的那个，比起石油，能
源，金子，甚至农产品都差 |
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d*******r
发帖数: 3875 | 4 Corn is the most volatile commodity around
First things first.
Gold: the 1450 target was reached. I exited a small long position, flipped
and am now short. I am looking for a pull back down to 1428 and then 1418.
If, however, we rotate up to to a new high, I will be stopped out with a
small loss.
Dow cash traded up to 12,438 today for a high. Dow Futures have yet to trade
above 12,377. The old high on Feb 18th in the futures was 12,379. I am
being patient with my short position. However, if we h... 阅读全帖 |
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o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 5 如果有一天美元崩溃，而commodities成为唯一可靠的投资商品，那到时候能在NYSE活
下来的是不是都是commodities ETFs，那些commodities stocks会平安吗？换句话说，
比如，SLV和SLW会是一直平行的走下去吗？ |
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a*****e
发帖数: 1717 | 6 Silver is the best performer this year on the Standard &
Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities. The metal led the way in
April as commodities beat stocks, bonds and the dollar for a
fifth straight month, the longest stretch in at least 14 years.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators cut their
net-long positions in New York silver futures by 26 percent in
the week ended April 26, according to U.S. Commodity Futures
Trading Commission data.
Speculative long positions, or bets... 阅读全帖 |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 7 Don't forget the "Contango"
And remember as a commodity contract holder, you have to pay for the storage
and all other related expense for it
Non-dividend stocks usually will be supported by the earning growth except
the penny stocks. And most of all, there are always a group of people in
the company working hard trying to make money for stock holders if the
company is a good company.
For commodity, it is just a game between buyer and seller. Nothing else.
Above all, commodity is only a way ... 阅读全帖 |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 8 Well said. To bet on the commodity derivative is a pure speculation on
a negative sum game.
It is not a good game for normal investors. There is better way to bet
on the commodity if you do believe the commodity price will rise. For
example, you can buy "GOLD" (Randgold Resources Ltd) if you want to bet
that the gold price will continue to rise.
Anyway, derivative has its own merits to attract speculators since it
usually will provide very high leverage than other equities.
speculators.... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********s
发帖数: 2136 | 9 By Frank Tang and Aaron Pressman
NEW YORK/BOSTON | Tue May 17, 2011 12:31am BST
(Reuters) - Billionaire financier George Soros, who called gold "the
ultimate bubble," dumped almost his entire $800 million stake in bullion in
the first quarter, well before a commodities slump blamed partly on reports
he was liquidating his holdings.
Famed gold bull John Paulson held his ground, but Soros was joined in the
retreat by several other big names, including
Eric Mindich and Paul Touradji, according to 1... 阅读全帖 |
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c**l
发帖数: 324 | 10 先到＂炒股俱乐部＂呆几天，冷飕飕的。来股版热热身。把上周的俱乐部贴子附上，权
当见面礼。
此行下落，应当在近日内寻找１３００的技术反弹。后续大势如何走取决与How fast
we can be
there. Current strategy should be waiting the opportunity knock your door.
发信人: cxhl, 信区: TraderSuccess
标 题: commodity price as an indicator of the two year old bull market
关键字: sp500,resistance,commodity
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu May 26 14:28:02 2011, 美东)
commodity price came up for the third day and it does fuel up the other
sectors. very important resistance is still S&P500 1344. be careful
when index ... 阅读全帖 |
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p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 11 As Oil Demand Grows Faster, OPEC Needs to Up Output
OIL, SAUDI ARABIA, SUPPLIES, PRICES BRENT CRUDE COMMODITIES ENERGY UNITED
STATES GAS PRICES CONSUMERS MIDDLE EAST, OPEC
Reuters | 07 Jun 2011 | 09:47 PM ET
Global oil demand is growing faster than analysts expected just six months
ago, according to a new Reuters poll that could bolster the case for OPEC to
open the taps at Wednesday's meeting in Vienna.
The poll of 10 top oil analysts showed oil demand will grow by 1.5 million
barrels per day (... 阅读全帖 |
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r*****t
发帖数: 7278 | 12 commodity is average downable, stock is not.
commodity is holdable, stock is not.
commodity is 捂able, stock is not. |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 13 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
oyxy (oyxy) 于 (Fri Apr 29 20:01:16 2011, 美东) 提到:
如果有一天美元崩溃，而commodities成为唯一可靠的投资商品，那到时候能在NYSE活
下来的是不是都是commodities ETFs，那些commodities stocks会平安吗？换句话说，
比如，SLV和SLW会是一直平行的走下去吗？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
babycrynot (不哭的小孩儿) 于 (Fri Apr 29 21:01:20 2011, 美东) 提到:
操这么多心干啥，我担保两年过去再也不想SLV SLW的事儿，而那时候美元应该还在。
当年这版上多少炒FAZ, FAS的，现在你看看一个月下来有几个提的？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
oyxy (oyxy) 于 (Fri Apr 29 21:58:34 2011, 美东) 提到:
多谢回答，不过我... 阅读全帖 |
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o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 14 First I want to rank the investing instruments in the order of Risk
Commodities > Equities > Short term bonds > Real Estate > Cash > Long term
bonds
For the Commodities category,
I think Gold > Silver (if you buy it below 40) > Agriculture > Uranium > Oil
&gas > Base metal
It's not a good idea to put all money in commodities, in case the volatility
increases to a crazy level.
I think at least one should put 20% money in both Stocks and short term
bonds, in this way, the volatility can be hedged ... 阅读全帖 |
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h*l
发帖数: 807 | 15 Release Date: August 9, 2011
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June
indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower
than the Committee had expected. Indicators suggest a deterioration in
overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate
has moved up. Household spending has flattened out, investment in
nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains
depressed. ... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 16 For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June
indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower
than the Committee had expected. Indicators suggest a deterioration in
overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate
has moved up. Household spending has flattened out, investment in
nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains
depressed. However, business investment ... 阅读全帖 |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 17 The problem with agriculture business is people have to eat. Therefore the
political regimes have tremendous pressure and incentives to keep the prices
down, well, as long as they can. On the top of that agriculture products
are hard to store and preserve, so you can't really hoard them. Producers
have to sell the agriculture products before it perishes and worth nothing.
It's a very interesting business as both demand and supply curves are very
inelastic.
Not the case with gold/silver. Average ... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 18 The Near- and Longer-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy
Good morning. As always, thanks are due to the Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City for organizing this conference. This year's topic, long-term
economic growth, is indeed pertinent--as has so often been the case at this
symposium in past years. In particular, the financial crisis and the
subsequent slow recovery have caused some to question whether the United
States, notwithstanding its long-term record of vigorous economic growth,
might n... 阅读全帖 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 19 徐秀雰, 白银暴跌，民间炒银热情依旧(2). 今日早报 (浙江日报报业集团所属), May
4, 2011.
http://www.chinanews.com/fortune
/2011/05-04/3015453_2.shtml
Quote:
2011年 "5月1日，[货币战争》的作者] 宋鸿兵又在博客中表示，白银比黄金更稀缺，
作为投资，购买白银比购买黄金更划算。'在人类5000年的历史上，金银的比价始终维
持在1∶16左右，现代科学发现，地壳里的黄金和白银储量的比例大约是1∶17。从存量
上看，世界黄金的藏量从1940年的大约3万吨增加到现在的大约15万吨，70年中大约增
加了5倍。与此同时，白银的存量则从30万吨下降到大约3万吨，减少了90%。从绝对数
量上看，目前白银的存量只有黄金存量的1/5。这就意味着，白银比黄金更为稀缺'")
"'美国地质调查局的调查表明，白银将是人类历史上第一种被开采殆尽的金属，时间大
约只有12.3年。' 宋鸿兵说，目前全世界市场上能够买到的白银存量大约是7亿盎司，
按现在每盎司48美元的价格计算，总价值不过336亿美元。这样一个极具诱惑力而且非
常... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 20 Idiot.
The Chinese buyers borrowed money at low interest 0.4%/month to buy these
commodities, in the mean time they sell the commodities at a small loss (5%
) to the next buyer, they then give the bill to the bank for cash at 5%
haircut, lend the cash out at 20% monthly interest rate. 10% margiat with no real
capital involved.
There is your great demand. It only demonstrate the tightness of liquidity
in China. When the game ends, watch the spectacular fall.
This is just one possibility. I ha... 阅读全帖 |
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o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 21 观望，不急着上船，现在commodities比股市还熊，股市涨，commodities不涨，股市跌
，commodities也跌。 |
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x********u
发帖数: 1150 | 22 QE可能性小, 但是明天Fed会议结束, 很多人都在期盼OT.
你的意思是股市如果跌的话, 农业commodities也会跟跌?
我觉得股市长期跌的可能行大, 但是commodities长期应该看涨吧.
我看Rogers也说Fed除了印钱还是印钱, 号召买commodities.
大牛指点下, 看怎么理解他的话. |
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o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 23 DBC is an index. You can see oil is up from 30 to 110 after QE, which
definitely outperform stocks. Gold/Silver, sugar, cotton....
also did very well.
So I prefer to select a few commodities or commodities stocks rather than
all commodities. I am still thinking about my buying list, hehe. |
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o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 24 If a lot of capital really comes back to US from China, it will definitely
plunge all other currencies and commodities. I doubt Japan can also hold if
China crashes. Compared to 2008 when US dollar index went to ~90, it should
go much much higher, and soon it should be plunged much much lower.
Commodities price is floated by Chinese demand, if anything happens in China
, commodities, especially oil and industrial metals, and Aussie, South
America, Canada, all will crash. |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 25 http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/04/markets/milk_futures/index.htm
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The commodity which enjoyed the biggest gain in price
last year can be answered with a simple question: Got milk?
That's because milk, not gold, oil, or any of the more popular futures
contracts, enjoyed about a 35.7% rise in price in 2011 to close at 18.77
cents per pound.
PrintComment
That compares to an 11.7% rise in the price of gold and a 10% rise in crude
oil prices. It also blows away the more modest gai... 阅读全帖 |
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w**********2
发帖数: 764 | 26 Rampant silver manipulation? Rampant gold manipulation? Rampant LIBOR
manipulation? Hiding MF Global client assets? These are all happening at
JP Morgan according to an open letter reportedly written by an anonymous
employee of the firm. The whistleblower also warns of a "cascading credit
event being triggered" by derivatives related to Greek government debt.
Unlike Greg Smith at Goldman Sachs, this whistleblower has chosen to remain
anonymous for now. According to the letter, the whistle... 阅读全帖 |
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B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 27 Goldman sees drop in trading revenue
April 17, 2012, 4:35 PM MarketWatch
Goldman Sachs’s revenue from trading bonds, currencies and commodities in
the first quarter was, in the words of its chief financial officer, “good
but not great.”
Net revenue in FICC (which stands for fixed income, currency and commodities
) dropped 20% to $3.46 billion from the same period a year ago. Still, that
was sharply higher than the $1.36 billion posted in the fourth quarter of
2011.
David Viniar, Goldman’s CFO, f... 阅读全帖 |
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s*****n
发帖数: 5488 | 28 PALLADIUM - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
Code-
075651
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders - Futures Only, May 22, 2012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
: : Reportable
Positions ... 阅读全帖 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 29 http://marketday.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/10/12662685-broker
By msnbc.com staff
PFGBest has frozen its customers’ accounts after an apparent suicide
attempt by its owner Russell R. Wasendorf Sr. and a report from an industry
group that one-half of customer funds at the Iowa-based trading company are
missing.
Late Monday, the National Futures Association (NFA), which regulates the
futures industry, said it has taken an emergency enforcement action against
Peregrine Financial Group, the parent ... 阅读全帖 |
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g********r
发帖数: 4248 | 30 http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/11/peregrine-financia
Peregrine Financial Group Inc. filed to liquidate in bankruptcy after the U.
S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued the brokerage alleging a US$200
-million “shortfall” in client funds.
Peregrine listed assets of more than US$500-million and debt exceeding US$
100-million in a Chapter 7 petition filed yesterday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court
in Chicago. Separately, U.S. District Judge Rebecca Pallmeyer issued an
order freezing Pereg... 阅读全帖 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 31 If US economic will have good run(house price going up along with job market
recovery), so what to buy ? I would say 3 sectors,
Banks: My favorite is still C, next one is JPM.
Insurance: MET
Commodity: Oil related companies. BP and HES.
Most of my picks are undervalued, C, MET and JPM are below their tangible
book value. Use this web site to check their tangible book values. Just
replace C with your own stock symbol.
http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/Ratios.jsp?tkr=... 阅读全帖 |
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u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 32 Why has the stock market been rallying during the past five months? In
hindsight, it seems simple. As long as the Fed or any other central bank (
most recently, the Bank of Japan) is printing money, then stocks rally.
As I have been writing in recent months (Read Viewpoints: Will the sweet
spot for stocks continue?), there have been four factors supporting risk
assets since November: the economy, the market's technical condition (or
tape), sentiment, and monetary policy. Until a few weeks ago, t... 阅读全帖 |
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u*****e
发帖数: 744 | 33 Why has the stock market rallied during the past five months? In hindsight,
it seems simple: As long as the Fed or any other central bank is printing
money, then stocks rally.
As I have been saying, four factors have been supporting risk assets since
November: the economy, the market's technical condition, sentiment, and
monetary policy. Until a few weeks ago, the first three factors had been
losing steam and were at risk of toppling the market—or so it seemed. But
they didn’t.
In terms of the e... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 34 Latest Hedge Fund Performance -- Boring For 2014
Todd Edgar, like most macro hedge-fund managers, couldn't make money this
year.
Then came September. Edgar, whose Atreaus Capital LP specializes in
currencies and commodities, had been betting since June that the price of
soybeans would drop because of favorable weather conditions that promised a
bumper crop. On Sept. 11, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported record
harvests and expanding global inventories. Bean prices tumbled 8 percent
thr... 阅读全帖 |
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p******e
发帖数: 17163 | 35 i'm just betting a short term commodity complex bounce, my median term
outlook is still put equity and to a lesser extent maybe put commodity also.
That said, gold and silver is a unique set of commodity, they are also
currency, and at time can be consider cash, so i believe these two have
probably bottom.
my model indicating gold to be at least 1300 ish right now, more like 1600.
also chinese da ma will not be stop hunted by wall st. if anything,
anecdotal evidence suggest they will buy dip. so... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 36
Hedge Funds Shut as Managers Struggle in Year of Two Percent Returns
By Katherine Burton Dec 1, 2014 6:00 PM CT
Hedge funds are shutting at a rate not seen since the financial crisis, as
many managers post disappointing returns and an elite group of firms
dominate money raising.
The $37 billion Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP is the latest firm to
close a fund. Last week it pulled the plug on its $630 million commodity
fund managed by Stephane Nicolas after it had tumbled 4.3 percent this ye... 阅读全帖 |
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r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 37 散户炒股2大毒瘤，leveraged ETF和commodity，现在本版每天讨论的就是commodity的
3x etf，而且还是短线操作，要很精准哦，还创造性的讨论这些etf的市值和庄家吸货
的原理，赚钱的难度比买彩票高不了多少。中钙和commodity的3X etf比真是算是良心
股票了。 |
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r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 38 哎，都说中钙害人，可相比较commodity相关的股票，中钙简直是善财童子了，NB的腾
讯百度网易就不说了，就是sina/yoku/qihu/jmei等萎靡之流，即使抄到了半山腰，握
个半年还能回来不少甚至扭亏为盈。可chk这种能源公司完蛋了可就真完蛋了。ugaz这
种3X ETF commodity更是毒药中的毒药。几年前股版曾经的明星anr就是这样，麻油兔
也不知道哪里去了。
chk能不能乾坤逆转我也不知道，但对于大多数人来说，抱着commodity股票反复啃迟早
把牙都崩了，本版的金虫银虫油虫气虫鲜有善终的。 |
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h*********r
发帖数: 10182 | 39 3x 要买有长期trend的。
不能买commodity based. commodity based 3x 要short,
为啥叫commodity, 就是这玩意完全是supply/demand 平衡的，啥时价格一涨，产量马
上就会上去，把价格打下来，所以没有trend.
数 |
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B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 40 Nearly four months ago on June 2nd, something very unusual happened in
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
The price of propane actually became negative, hitting an unbelievable -0.
625 cents per gallon.
It’s hard to believe that the price of a productive commodity could become
so beat down by the market that producers would practically have to pay you
to take it off their hands.
Now that’s cheap. And completely nuts.
This actually happens from time to time with certain commodities. And there
are a numbe... 阅读全帖 |
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m******1
发帖数: 86 | 41 the core business is the container leasing (95%), not commodity, the only
part the business is impacted by the commodity market is the unusable
containers to be recycled by the metal companies. Before, it can be sold for
a good price with gain, now it's a loss. That's the extend of impact of
commodity price to the business.
for
maker"
off
market
and
with |
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t**s
发帖数: 4026 | 42 你没错，他错了.commodity涨是因为inflation，fed加息是为了控制inflation，而不
是因为加息导致commodity涨价，他因果没搞清楚。这次情况又不一样，影响commodity
价格的因素太多了。当然他也可能从错误的推理得出正确的结果，反正最后也就两个可
能，错了或者对了，lol
/* */的单子 |
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r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 43 可最终还是能否赚到钱，能否相对容易的赚到钱。我反对炒commodity相关不是一天两
天了，3-4年前本版炒银子金子时候我就说“金虫银虫油虫各种commodity虫，账户鲜有
善终的." 明摆着的，炒中钙都比commodity赚钱几率大多了。又不是我自己的钱，我只
是看到本版天天就是油啊气啊，油的库存啦，美国又出口石油拉，x.xx抄uwti，诱惑不
明白风险的人往里撞个头破血流, 有时候正义感上来说两句而已，仅次而已。 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 44 Here's what Wall Street is predicting for stock market in 2016
Akin Oyedele
Nov. 28, 2015, 6:00 AM 173,206 8
Most of the big stock-market forecasts for 2016 are in.
Wall Street steadily lowered its expectations for the market as 2015
unfolded.
On Thursday December 24, the S&P 500 closed near 2,061. Last December, the
median year-end target for 2015 among the top strategists was higher at 2,
213 according to Bloomberg.
Based on the forecasts we've received so far, many of the most bull... 阅读全帖 |
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b**********5
发帖数: 7881 | 45 gold/commodities propping up the SPX, which in turn propping up qqq. it's
time for a bigger pullback for commodities, and smaller pull back for SPX
like i said this morning, SELL UR commodities stocks!!! |
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s***d
发帖数: 15421 | 46 A share really depends on commodities. A share stocks, good or invest-able
stocks are all fucking commodities or agriculture commodities related... I
am betting on Agriculture stocks recently for a while, much stronger than Da
Pan. I will hold some position for longer time for some a very good stock.
Also, a long term bull stock. |
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M*******c
发帖数: 4371 | 47 什么叫垄断？
the exclusive possession or control of the supply or trade in a commodity or
service.
"his likely motive was to protect his regional monopoly on furs"
the exclusive possession, control, or exercise of something.
"men don't have a monopoly on unrequited love"
a company or group having exclusive control over a commodity or service.
"areas where cable companies operate as monopolies"
a commodity or service in the exclusive control of a company of group.
"electricity, gas, and water were cons... 阅读全帖 |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 48 Why don't you go back to 40 years ago when gold was allowed to trade again
at $30+ an ounce?
In addition, if you really want to benchmark inflation, you should go back
to 1933 before the gold confiscation, when gold was traded at $20 an ounce,
because for the next 40 years there wasn't a "real" price for gold.
Gold is the most manipulated money ever, period. Using any fiat to benchmark
gold is a wrong idea to start with. The only sensible benchmark is the
commodity benchmark. That is, how much c... 阅读全帖 |
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e**n
发帖数: 5876 | 49 查了一下, “爬海蛋”就是煎咸蛋. 俩咸蛋+一碗面. 20块. 算price gouging了吧.
florida来台风的时候就有加油站借机涨价, price gouging,然后被罚了.
所以当地政府封店拆牌没什么不对的.
What is Price Gouging?
Florida Statute 501.160 states that during a state of emergency, it is
unlawful to sell, lease, offer to sell, or offer for lease essential
commodities, dwelling units, or self-storage facilities for an amount that
grossly exceeds the average price for that commodity during the 30 days
before the declaration of the state of emergency, unless the seller can
... 阅读全帖 |
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r****y
发帖数: 26819 | 50 呵呵
资本论第一卷英文版里这句话是这么说的：
The leap taken by value from the body of the commodity, into the body of the
gold, is, as I have elsewhere called it, the salto mortale of the commodity.
If it falls short, then, although the commodity itself is not harmed, its
owner decidedly is.
salto mortale是意大利语，意思是头朝下翻跟头着地似的，关键而危险的
吴站长引用这一句，就是这个意思 :-)拿来形容李涯之死，实在是很贴切的啊 |
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